<p dir="ltr">Restoration of civil infrastructure is <b>not</b> equivalent to the full recovery of a community from natural hazards. Considering the recovery of only civil infrastructure in quantifying the disaster recovery of a community does not allow for capturing the long-term socio-economic impacts of natural hazards (e.g., stress, anxiety, unemployment, etc.). The role of having a robust social infrastructure in facilitating disaster recovery and addressing both short-term and long-term impacts of natural hazards needs to be explored. Social infrastructure is defined as formal entities (e.g., governmental organizations, community centers, NGOs, religious centers, etc.) as well as informal social ties such as individuals and households that assist in post-disaster recovery and alleviate the distress caused by natural hazards. Social infrastructure not only addresses post-disaster tangible needs such as shelter, food, and water but also helps alleviate disaster-induced socio-economic distress in communities.</p><p dir="ltr">This research focuses on identifying the capacity needs of the social infrastructure to facilitate disaster recovery (measured using community well-being as the recovery metric), while integrating the cascading impacts from other affected inter-dependent infrastructure systems (i.e., civil, civic, cyber, financial, environmental, and educational). Using community well-being, which is defined as the state in which the needs of a community are fulfilled, allows for incorporating both short-term and long-term impacts of natural hazards.</p><p dir="ltr">The research starts with modeling post-disaster community well-being using the indicators selected from existing community well-being models. After the selection of indicators, several data sources such as phone call, survey, and FEMA support programs data were used to 1) verify the structure of the community well-being model, and 2) quantify post-disaster community well-being. Chapter 3 elaborates on this process and its outcome, which is a framework for quantifying post-disaster community well-being based on disaster helpline and survey data.</p><p dir="ltr">Chapter 4 introduces a Bayesian Network<b> </b>modeling framework for quantifying the role of social infrastructure services in the form tangible, emotional, and informational support in enhancing post-disaster community well-being. The Bayesian model was then used to propose capacity building strategies for increasing the robustness of social infrastructure and its supporting infrastructure to foster post-disaster community well-being in the face of future hurricanes.</p><p dir="ltr"><b>Intellectual Merit</b>: the proposed research is unique in its kind as it leverages social and psychological well-being models and theories to characterize the role of social infrastructure in the recovery of communities from natural disasters. The research contributes to infrastructure and urban resilience models by considering the role of social infrastructure services using community well-being as the recovery metric. It also contributes to social sciences by introducing 2-1-1 disaster helpline data as an inexpensive and timely replacement for multiple rounds of survey questionnaires for quantifying community well-being.</p><p dir="ltr"><b>Broader Impacts</b>: the proposed model and the obtained results can serve as an Ex-Ante Capacity building tool for decision-makers to predict the status of communities in the face of future natural hazards and propose capacity building strategies to have higher post-disaster support, and thereby, community well-being.<br></p><p dir="ltr"><br></p>

A transportation system is a critical infrastructure that is key for mobility in any community. Natural hazards can cause failure in transportation infrastructure and impede its routine performance. Ecological systems are resilient systems that are very similar to transportation systems. Diversity is a fundamental factor in ecological resilience, and it is recognized as an important property of transportation resilience. However, quantifying transportation diversity remains challenging, which makes it difficult to understand the influence of diversity on transportation performance and resilience. Consequently, three studies are undertaken to remedy this circumstance. The first study develops a novel approach – inspired by biodiversity in ecological stability theory – to characterize and measure transportation diversity by its richness (availability) and evenness (distribution). This transportation diversity approach is then applied to New York City (NYC) at the zip code level using the GIS data of transportation modes. The results demonstrate the variation of transportation diversity across the city. The characterized inherent and augmented complementarities start to uncover the dynamics of modal compensation and to demonstrate how transportation diversity contributes to this phenomenon. Moreover, the NYC zip codes with low transportation diversity are mainly in hurricane evacuation zones that are more vulnerable. Consequently, low transportation diversity in these areas could affect their post-disaster mobility. In the second study, the influence of transportation diversity on post-disaster mobility is examined by investigating the patterns of mobility in New York City one month before and after Hurricane Sandy using Twitter data. To characterize pre- and post-Sandy mobility patterns, the locations that individuals visited frequently were identified and travel distance, the radius of gyration, and mobility entropy were measured. Individuals were grouped according to the transportation diversity of their frequently visited locations. The findings reveal that individuals that lived in or visited zip codes with higher transportation diversity mostly experienced less disturbance in their mobility patterns after Sandy and the recovery of their mobility patterns was faster. The results confirm that transportation diversity affects the resilience of individual post-disaster mobility. The approach used in this study is one of the first to examine the root causes of changes in mobility patterns after extreme events by linking transportation infrastructure diversity to post-disaster mobility. Finally, the third study employs the transportation diversity approach to investigate modal accessibility and social exclusion. Transportation infrastructure is a sociotechnical system and transport equity is crucial for access to opportunities and services such as jobs and infrastructure. The social exclusion caused by transport inequity could be intensified after natural disasters that can cause failure in a transportation system. One approach to determine transport equity is access to transportation modes. Common catchment area approaches to assess the equity of access to transportation modes cannot differentiate between the equity of access to modes in sub-regions of an area. The transportation diversity approach overcomes this shortcoming, and it is applied to all transportation modes in NYC zip codes to measure the equity of access. Zip codes were grouped in quartiles based on their transportation diversity. Using the American Community Survey data, a set of important socioeconomic and transport usage factors were compared in the quartile groups. The results indicated the relationship between transportation diversity and income, vehicle ownership, commute time, and commute mode. This relationship highlighted that social exclusion is linked with transport inequity. The results also revealed that the inequity of the transport system in zip codes with low transportation diversity affects poor individuals more than non-poor and the zip codes with a majority of black and Hispanic populations are impacted more. Further consideration of the impacts of Hurricanes Irene and Sandy in NYC shows that people in areas with a lower transportation diversity were affected more and the transport inequity in these areas made it difficult to cope with these disasters and caused post-disaster social exclusion. Therefore, enhancing transportation diversity should support transport equity and reduce social exclusion under normal situations and during extreme events. Together, these three studies illustrate the influence of transportation diversity on the resilience of this infrastructure. They highlight the importance of the provision and distribution of all transportation modes, their influence on mobility during normal situations and extreme events and their contribution toward mitigating social exclusion. Finally, these studies suggest that transportation diversity can contribute to more targeted and equitable transportation and community resilience planning, which should help decision-makers allocate scarce resources more effectively. / Doctor of Philosophy / Transportation systems are very important in every city. Natural disasters like hurricanes and floods can destroy roads and inundate metro tunnels that can cause problems for mobility. Ecological systems like forests are very resilient because they have experienced disturbances like natural disasters for millions of years. Ecological systems and transportation systems are very similar; for example, both have different components (different species in an ecological system and different modes in a transportation system). Because of such similarities, we can learn from ecological resilience to improve transportation resilience. Having a variety of species in an ecological system makes it diverse. Diversity is the most important factor in ecological resilience, and it is also recognized as an important factor in transportation resilience. Current methods cannot effectively quantify transportation diversity – the variety of modes in a system – so determining its impact on transportation resilience remains a challenge. In this dissertation, principles of ecological diversity are adapted to characterize transportation infrastructure to develop a new approach to measure transportation diversity; metrics include the availability of transportation modes and their distribution in a community. The developed approach was applied in New York City (NYC) at the zip code level. Locations with low transportation diversity (fewer modes and/or unequal distribution) were identified, and most of these zip codes are located in hurricane evacuation zones. Consequently, these zip codes with the least diverse transportation systems are the most vulnerable, which can cause serious issues during emergency evacuations and the ability of people to access work or essential services. Therefore, in a city hit by a natural disaster, understanding the relationship between people's mobility and a transportation system's diversity is important. Twitter data was used to find the places that people in NYC visited regularly for one month before and one month after Hurricane Sandy. Subsequently, using different methods, the pre- and post-disaster mobility patterns of these individuals were characterized. The results show that after the disaster, individuals had a higher chance of maintaining their pre-disaster mobility patterns if they were living in and/or visiting areas with high transportation diversity. Based on these findings, we confirmed the influence of transportation diversity on post-disaster mobility. In addition, the transportation infrastructure should provide equitable service to all individuals, during normal operations and extreme events. One of the ways to determine this equality is equity of access to transportation modes. Hence, transportation diversity was used as an indicator for equity of access to transportation modes to overcome the limitations of current methods like catchment area approaches. NYC zip codes were grouped based on their transportation diversity and a set of important socioeconomic and transport related factors were compared among these groups. The comparison of socioeconomic and transport related factors in zip codes showed that the zip codes with lower transportation diversity are also more socioeconomically deprived. This highlights the likely influence of transportation diversity on social exclusion. Further consideration of the impacts of Hurricanes Irene and Sandy in NYC shows that people in areas with a lower transportation diversity were affected more and the transport inequity in these areas made it difficult to cope with these disasters and caused post-disaster social exclusion. Therefore, enhancing transportation diversity should support transport equity and reduce social exclusion under normal situations and during extreme events. The investigations conducted highlight the importance of the provision and distribution of all transportation modes, their influence on mobility during normal situations and extreme events and their contribution toward mitigating social exclusion. Finally, the collective results suggest that transportation diversity can contribute to more targeted and equitable transportation and community resilience planning, which should help decision-makers allocate scarce resources more effectively.

The problem facing the Tlokwe Local Municipality is that it is Constitutional and legislatively obliged to avoid and/or mitigate the impact of potential disasters within its boundaries, through the effective management of potential disaster risks and disasters. The lack of effective risk management tools is especially concerning in the context of the water catchment management of the Mooi River, which is the main water supply of the Tlokwe local Municipality. The Mooi River is exposed to many potential catchment related hazards that could affect the municipality of which the origins are both anthropogenic and natural. Although, many of the impacts on the catchment arise beyond the boundaries and the control of the municipality, this does not relieve the municipality from the responsibility to develop tools to manage the risks. The aim of the study is to assist in addressing the above stated problem through establishing the requirements for a conceptual model for an effective spatial information system that will assist the municipality in effectively managing the potential disaster risks and disasters that may arise in the Mooi River Catchment area that could impact on the Tlokwe Local Municiaplity. The aim gives rise to three-research questions that are formulated as research objectives that are used to identify the conceptual model requirements. The first is to identify and conceptualise the constitutional and legislative obligations in respect of disaster risk management in general and specifically those governing the disaster disk management in the water catchment area for the Mooi River. The study of this objective not only highlight the constitutional and legal obligations that the local municipality is subject to, but provides legislatives remedies that the local municipality can utilise to assist with disaster risks reduction. The second is to identify and conceptualise the generic hazards that are related to water catchment areas (including the related groundwater compartments) and those specific in the Mooi River catchment area. In this section, potential anthropogenic and natural hazards are listed, a methodology for risk and vulnerability analyses is provided, and a concise study of quaternary catchment C23D is provided. The third is to identify and conceptualize the requirements for an effective conceptual model of GIS for Disaster Risk Management in the Tlokwe Local Municipality. An overview of a GIS is provided. The essential components of a generic information system namely, people, software, hardware, procedures and processes, data and telecommunications or networks are discussed. The information and system requirements cumulating from the analyses of the three research questions, serve as the drivers of the goal, outcomes and transformation process of the system as well as the requirements for the conceptual model. In this section: a comparison of the Systems Development Life Cycle (SDLC), Framework for Applied Systems Thinking (FAST), problem solving and the phases addressed in this study; the identification of the conceptual model requirements; and a concise systems conceptualisation of an effective GIS is provided. As the, mini-dissertation focuses on the needs for a conceptual model, the additional activities required before the system can be implemented are identified and formulated as recommendation that provide the opportunity for future research. / M Development and Management, North-West University, Potchefstroom Campus, 2014

The problem facing the Tlokwe Local Municipality is that it is Constitutional and legislatively obliged to avoid and/or mitigate the impact of potential disasters within its boundaries, through the effective management of potential disaster risks and disasters. The lack of effective risk management tools is especially concerning in the context of the water catchment management of the Mooi River, which is the main water supply of the Tlokwe local Municipality. The Mooi River is exposed to many potential catchment related hazards that could affect the municipality of which the origins are both anthropogenic and natural. Although, many of the impacts on the catchment arise beyond the boundaries and the control of the municipality, this does not relieve the municipality from the responsibility to develop tools to manage the risks. The aim of the study is to assist in addressing the above stated problem through establishing the requirements for a conceptual model for an effective spatial information system that will assist the municipality in effectively managing the potential disaster risks and disasters that may arise in the Mooi River Catchment area that could impact on the Tlokwe Local Municiaplity. The aim gives rise to three-research questions that are formulated as research objectives that are used to identify the conceptual model requirements. The first is to identify and conceptualise the constitutional and legislative obligations in respect of disaster risk management in general and specifically those governing the disaster disk management in the water catchment area for the Mooi River. The study of this objective not only highlight the constitutional and legal obligations that the local municipality is subject to, but provides legislatives remedies that the local municipality can utilise to assist with disaster risks reduction. The second is to identify and conceptualise the generic hazards that are related to water catchment areas (including the related groundwater compartments) and those specific in the Mooi River catchment area. In this section, potential anthropogenic and natural hazards are listed, a methodology for risk and vulnerability analyses is provided, and a concise study of quaternary catchment C23D is provided. The third is to identify and conceptualize the requirements for an effective conceptual model of GIS for Disaster Risk Management in the Tlokwe Local Municipality. An overview of a GIS is provided. The essential components of a generic information system namely, people, software, hardware, procedures and processes, data and telecommunications or networks are discussed. The information and system requirements cumulating from the analyses of the three research questions, serve as the drivers of the goal, outcomes and transformation process of the system as well as the requirements for the conceptual model. In this section: a comparison of the Systems Development Life Cycle (SDLC), Framework for Applied Systems Thinking (FAST), problem solving and the phases addressed in this study; the identification of the conceptual model requirements; and a concise systems conceptualisation of an effective GIS is provided. As the, mini-dissertation focuses on the needs for a conceptual model, the additional activities required before the system can be implemented are identified and formulated as recommendation that provide the opportunity for future research. / M Development and Management, North-West University, Potchefstroom Campus, 2014

Cette thèse porte sur le capital social et les mesures prises afin de se préparer aux aléas naturels aux Philippines. L’archipel est régulièrement soumis à de nombreux risques de catastrophe, générant parfois des conséquences désastreuses pour la population et le patrimoine économique du pays. Par ailleurs, ces îles portent un lourd héritage colonial rendant omniprésents les inégalités socioéconomiques, le manque de solidarité et la pauvreté. Le concept du capital social demeure encore très polémique, cependant nous croyons qu'il peut s'avérer utile afin de mieux réfléchir à la façon dont les sociétés humaines interagissent avec les aléas naturels. Nos recherches mettent en avant l’importance des inégalités socioéconomiques, du contexte et de l'échelle géographique dans l’analyse du capital social et de la préparation aux aléas. Elles soulignent d'autre part que la compréhension des dynamiques sociales, telles que la confiance et la participation communautaire, ne peut être atteinte sans une considération des contextes politiques. Nous avons porté une attention particulière à l'examen des contextes et des différentes formes de capital social, et ce, à plusieurs niveaux géographiques (village, municipalité, région, pays). Un nombre croissant d'études montre que l'inégalité économique entraîne des conséquences néfastes sur le capital social. Des recherches récentes ont également commencé à interroger les rapports entre le capital social et les catastrophes dites « naturelles ». Notre thèse établit un lien entre ces deux approches en couplant une analyse générale de la situation des Philippines à une étude approfondie d'une municipalité rurale isolée de la région des Visayas orientales. L'argument central de cette thèse est que l'inégalité économique produit des effets néfastes sur le capital social, entraînant des répercussions négatives sur la prévention des catastrophes « naturelles ». Par le biais de l'analyse de plusieurs échelles géographiques, cette thèse entend montrer comment les inégalités, de par leur impact sur le capital social, contribuent à augmenter les chances de voir les aléas naturels se constituer en désastres. Nous avançons qu'un usage circonspect du concept de capital social, prenant en compte les complexités politiques, historiques, et géographiques du contexte auquel il s'applique, a la capacité d'améliorer la manière dont les gens se préparent collectivement afin d'éviter que les aléas ne se transforment en catastrophes. / This thesis analyzes social capital and preparations for natural hazards in the Philippines. The research emphasizes the importance of inequalities, contextualization, and scale. It underlines the significance of historical and political contexts to better understand social dynamics. There is a growing body of scholarly literature that shows the detrimental repercussions of inequality on social capital. Social capital is still a debated concept but it can be useful for thinking about how human societies interact with natural hazards. The thesis thus contributes to the growing scientific inquiries which have begun to address the connections between social capital and “natural” disasters. This dissertation contributes to the links between these two fields of knowledge by analyzing the Filipino situation in general, as well as making a specific case study of a rural municipality in the Eastern Visayas region. The thesis’ central argument is that economic inequality is detrimental to social capital which then has negative repercussions on preparing for natural hazards. In an analysis at several geographical scales, this thesis shows how inequality, via social capital, makes societies more at risk of having natural hazards turn into disasters. The thesis argues that a cautious use of the concept of social capital, which is cognizant of the complexities of the context it is applied to, has the potential to improve the way people collectively prevent hazards from turning into disasters.

Lorsque les aléas naturels se déroulent en catastrophes, les réponses des religieux, de l’Etat, et d’autres acteurs puissants dans une société révèlent à la fois les relations complexes entre ces parties et leur pouvoir dans la production des espaces auxquelles les survivants accèdent. La réponse en cas de catastrophe comprend la création d’espaces post-catastrophes, tels que des centres d’évacuation, des logements de transition et des sites de réinstallation permanente, qui ciblent spécifiquement un sous-ensemble particulier de survivants, et visent à les aider à survivre, à faire face, et à se remettre de la catastrophe. Les acteurs puissants dans une société dirigent les processus de secours, de récupération et de reconstruction sont des acteurs puissants qui cherchent à problématiser et à rendre un problème technique dans des termes qu’ils sont idéalement placés pour aborder à travers une variété d'interventions. Ce projet de recherche vise à répondre à la question: où les survivants d'une catastrophe reconstruisent-ils leurs vies et leurs moyens de subsistance? Il enquête sur un cas spécifique de la migration environnementale dans laquelle des dizaines de milliers d'habitants ont été déplacés de façon permanente et temporaire de leurs résidences habituelles après le typhon Sendong à Cagayan de Oro, Philippines en 2011. La recherche est basée sur des entretiens avec les acteurs puissants et les survivants, des vidéos participatives réalisées par des survivants pauvres urbains, et des activités de cartographie. L’étude se fonde sur la théorie féministe, les études de migration, les études dans la gouvernementalité, la recherche sur les changements de l’environnement planétaire, et les études régionales afin de situer les diverses expériences de la migration dans un contexte géographique et historique. Cette thèse propose une topographie critique dans laquelle les processus et les pratiques de production d’espaces post-catastrophe sont exposés. Parce que l’espace est nécessairement malléable, fluide, et relationnelle en raison de l'évolution constante des activités, des conflits, et des expériences qui se déroulent dans le paysage, une analyse de l'espace doit être formulée en termes de relations sociales qui se produisent dans et au-delà de ses frontières poreuses. En conséquence, cette étude explore comment les relations sociales entre les survivants et les acteurs puissants sont liées à l’exclusion, la gouvernementalité, la mobilité, et la production des espaces, des lieux et des territoires. Il constate que, si les trajectoires de migration de la plupart des survivants ont été confinés à l'intérieur des limites de la ville, les expériences de ces survivants et leur utilisation des espaces urbains sont très différentes. Ces différences peuvent être expliquées par des structures politiques, économiques, et sociales, et par les différences religieuses, économiques, et de genre. En outre, il fait valoir que les espaces post-catastrophe doivent être considérés comme des «espaces d’exclusion» où les fiduciaires exercent une rationalité gouvernementale. C’est-à-dire, les espaces post-catastrophe prétendument inclusives servent à marginaliser davantage les populations vulnérables. Ces espaces offrent aussi des occasions pour les acteurs puissants dans la société philippine d'effectuer des interventions gouvernementales dans lesquelles certaines personnes et les paysages sont simplifiées, rendues lisibles, et améliorés. / When natural hazards unfold into disasters, the responses of religious, state, and other trustees reveal both the complex relationships among these parties and their power in producing the spaces accessed by the survivors. The disaster response includes the creation of post-disaster spaces, such as evacuation centres, transitional housing, and permanent resettlement sites, that specifically target or appeal to a particular subset of survivors, and aim to help them to survive, to cope with, and to recover from the disaster. The trustees directing the processes of disaster relief, recovery, and rebuilding are powerful actors who seek to problematise and render technical an issue in terms that they are ideally placed to address through a variety of interventions. This research project sets out to answer the question: where do the survivors of a disaster rebuild their lives and livelihoods? It investigates a specific case of environmental migration in which tens of thousands of residents were permanently and temporarily displaced from their usual places of residence after Typhoon Sendong in Cagayan de Oro, Philippines in 2011. The research is based on interviews with trustees and survivors, participatory videos made by urban poor survivors, and mapping activities. The study draws on feminist theory, migration studies, studies in governmentality, global environmental change literature, and regional studies to situate diverse experiences of migration within a geographical and historical context. This dissertation offers a critical topography in which the processes and practices of producing post-disaster spaces are exposed. Because space is necessarily malleable, fluid, and relational due to the ever-changing activities, conflict, and experiences unfolding in the landscape, any analysis of space must be formulated in terms of the social relations occurring within and beyond its porous boundaries. Accordingly, this study explores how the social relations among survivors and trustees are linked to exclusion, governmentality, mobility, and space- and place-making. It finds that although the migration trajectories of most survivors were confined within the city limits, the experiences of these survivors and their use of urban spaces were vastly different. These differences can be explained by political, economic, and social structures, and by religious, economic, and gender differences. Furthermore, it argues that post-disaster spaces are best understood as “spaces of exclusion” where trustees exercise a governmental rationality. That is, purportedly inclusive post-disaster spaces serve to further marginalise vulnerable populations. These spaces also open opportunities for trustees to carry out governmental interventions in which certain people and landscapes are simplified, rendered legible, and improved.

Debris flows, which occur in mountain settings worldwide, have been particularly damaging in the glaciated basins flanking the stratovolcanoes in the Cascade Range of the northwestern United States. This thesis contains two manuscripts that respectively investigate the (1) initiation processes of debris flows in these glaciated catchments, and (2) debris flow occurrence and its effect on valley bottoms over the last thousand years. In a 2006 storm, seven debris flows initiated from proglacial gullies of separate basins on the flanks of Mount Rainier. Gully heads at glacier termini and distributed collapse of gully walls imply that clear water was transformed to debris flow through progressive addition of sediment along gully lengths. In the first study, we analyze gully changes, reconstruct runoff conditions, and assess spatial distributions of debris flows to infer the processes and conditions necessary for debris flow initiation in glaciated catchments. Gully measurements suggest that sediment bulking requires steep gradients, abundant unstable material, and sufficient gully length. Reconstruction of runoff generated during the storm suggests that glaciers are important for generating the runoff necessary for debris flow initiation, particularly because infiltration capacities on glacial till covered surfaces well exceed measured rainfall rates. Runoff generation from glaciers and abundant loose debris at their termini explain why all debris flows in the storm initiated from proglacial areas. Proglacial areas that produced debris flows have steeper drainage networks with significantly higher elevations and lower drainage areas, suggesting that debris flows are associated with high elevation glaciers with relatively steep proglacial areas. This correlation reflects positive slope-elevation trends for the Mount Rainier volcano. An indirect effect of glacier change is thus the change in the distribution of ice-free slopes, which influence a basin’s debris flow potential. These findings have implications for projections of debris flow activity in basins experiencing glacier change. The second study uses a variety of dating techniques to reconstruct a chronology of debris flows in the Kautz Creek valley on the southwest flank of Mount Rainier (Washington). Dendrochronologic dating of growth disturbances combined with lichenometric techniques constrained five debris flow ages from 1712 to 1915 AD. We also estimated ages of three debris flows ranging in age from ca. 970 to 1661. Run-out distances served as a proxy for debris flow magnitude, and indicate that at least 11, 2, and 1 debris flow(s) have traveled at least 1, 3, and 5 km from the valley head, respectively since ca. 1650. Valley form reflects the frequency-magnitude relationship indicated by the chronology. In the upper, relatively steep valley, discrete debris flow snouts and secondary channels are abundant, suggesting a process of debris flow conveyance, channel plugging, and channel avulsion. The lower valley is characterized by relatively smooth surfaces, an absence of bouldery debris flow snouts, few secondary channels, and relatively old surface ages inferred from the presence of tephra layers. We infer that the lower valley is deposited on by relatively infrequent, large magnitude, low-yield strength debris flows like an event in 1947, which deposited wide, tabular lobes of debris outside of the main channel. Debris flows during the Little Ice Age (LIA) predominantly traveled no further than the upper valley. Stratigraphic evidence suggests that the main Kautz Creek channel was filled during the LIA, enhancing debris flow deposition on the valley surface and perhaps reducing run-out lengths. Diminished areas and gradients in front of glaciers during the LIA also likely contributed to decreased run-out lengths. These findings suggest that changes in debris flow source and depositional zones resulting from temperature and glacier cycles influence the magnitude and run-out distances of debris flows, and the dynamics of deposition in valley bottoms. / Graduation date: 2013

Se presenta un procedimiento para evaluar de forma cuantitativa el riesgo por deslizamientos teniendo en cuenta la peligrosidad, los elementos expuestos y su vulnerabilidad. El método utiliza los modelos de susceptibilidad obtenidos previamente a partir de las relaciones estadísticas existentes entre los deslizamientos ocurridos en el pasado (últimos 50 años) y una serie de parámetros del terreno relacionados con la inestabilidad. La frecuencia de deslizamientos en el pasado se ha utilizado para estimar frecuencias futuras. También se ha realizado un inventario y cartografía de los elementos afectados por deslizamientos en el pasado, y se han estimado los daños para cada tipo de elemento teniendo en cuenta la magnitud del tipo de deslizamiento analizado. Posteriormente se estimó la vulnerabilidad, que se expresa en valores de 0 a 1, a partir de la comparación entre pérdidas y valor del elemento afectado.La integración de la peligrosidad, vulnerabilidad y valor del elemento ha permitido obtener modelos de riesgo directo por deslizamiento para cada tipo de elemento. Además se han analizado las pérdidas indirectas ocasionadas sobre las actividades económicas por este proceso. El resultado final es un mapa de riesgo donde cada píxel muestra las pérdidas esperables por deslizamientos en los próximos 50 años / A quantitative procedure for landslide risk mapping has been developed considering hazard, vulnerability and exposed elements. The method is based on a susceptibility model previously developed from statistical relationships between past landslides occurred in the study area (last 50 years) and terrain parameters related to instability. Past landslide behaviour has been used to calculate landslide frequency for the future. An inventory of direct damage due to landslides during the study period was carried out and the main elements at risk in the area identified and mapped. Past monetary losses per type of element have been estimated and expressed as an average 'specific loss' for events of a given magnitude (corresponding to a specified scenario). Vulnerability has been assessed by comparing losses with the actual value of the elements affected and expressed as a fraction of that value (0-1).By integrating hazard, vulnerability and monetary value, direct landslide risk ( /pixel) has been computed for each element considered. Indirect losses from the disruption of economic activities due to landsliding have also been assessed. The final result is a risk map combining all losses per pixel for a 50-year period.

La mer Ionienne est une zone à la géodynamique active en raison de la convergence entre les plaques Nubie et Eurasie. Elle correspond aux derniers stades de vie d’un océan, la Téthys. De ce fait, la tectonique et la sédimentation y sont très réduites ; et les faibles flux sédimentaires permettent ainsi d’enregistrer une multiplicité de processus sédimentaires.Néanmoins, c’est une zone encore peu étudiée d’un point de vue sédimentaire, notamment sur les échelles de temps de l’ordre de la centaine de milliers d’années. Ce travail est basé sur une étude sédimentologique d’archives marines complétée par des données acoustiques (bathymétrie et multi-faisceau) issue de campagnes océanographiques du SHOM. L’analyse détaillée des faciès et des séquences sédimentaire a permis, dans un premier temps, d’établir un calendrier des risques naturels (séismes, tsunamis, volcanisme), leurs sources et leurs processus de dépôt dans le bassin pour les derniers 330 000 ans. Puis, dans un second temps, de retracer l’évolution sur les derniers 400 000 ans de la circulation et de l’oxygénation des eaux de fond dans le bassin ionien et l’influence du détroit de Sicile, et notamment de la plate-forme de Malte, sur les échanges entre les bassins occidental et oriental. L’intégration des données sédimentologiques dans un modèle géoacoustique développé par le SHOM a finalement permis de déterminer l’impact des variations sédimentaires (distribution spatiale, lithologie, stratification) sur la propagation des ondes acoustique pour différentes gammes de fréquences (300 Hz - 3000 Hz) et d’angle d’incidence (0 -90°) et d’établir une cartographie de la réponse sédimentaire du le signal acoustique. / The Ionian Sea is an active geodynamic area because of the convergence between theNubia and the Eurasia plate. It corresponds to the last stage of the Tethys ocean life. Therefore,the tectonics and the sedimentation are much reduced; and the low sedimentary supply enables torecord a multiplicity of sedimentary processes. Nevertheless, this area still poorly studied from asedimentary point of view, in particular on timescales on the order of hundred thousand years.This work is based on a sedimentological study of marine archives supplemented by acoustic data(bathymetry and multibeam imagery) recovered during oceanographic campaign leaded by theSHOM. The detailed sedimentary analysis of facies and sequences allows, at first, to established acalendar of the natural hazard (earthquakes, tsunamis, volcanism), their origins and theirdepositional processes into the basin over the last 330 000 years. Then, secondly, to reconstructthe evolution over the last 400 000 years of the circulation and the oxygenation of bottom waterthrough the Ionian basin and the influence of the strait of Sicily, in particular of the Malta Plateau,on the exchanges between the western and the eastern basins. The integration of thesedimentological data in a geoacoustic modelling developed by the SHOM finally allowed todetermine the impact of the sedimentary variability (special distribution, lithology, stratification)on the acoustic waves propagation for various frequency bands (300 Hz - 3000 Hz) and incidentangle (0 - 90°) and to established a mapping of the sedimentary answer of the acoustic signal.

This dissertation examines the quality of hazard mitigation elements in a coastal, hazard prone state. I answer two questions. First, in a state with a strong mandate for hazard mitigation elements in comprehensive plans, does plan quality differ among county governments? Second, if such variation exists, what drives this variation? My research focuses primarily on Florida’s 35 coastal counties, which are all at risk for hurricane and flood hazards, and all fall under Florida’s mandate to have a comprehensive plan that includes a hazard mitigation element. Research methods included document review to rate the hazard mitigation elements of all 35 coastal county plans and subsequent analysis against demographic and hazard history factors. Following this, I conducted an electronic, nationwide survey of planning professionals and academics, informed by interviews of planning leaders in Florida counties. I found that hazard mitigation element quality varied widely among the 35 Florida coastal counties, but were close to a normal distribution. No plans were of exceptionally high quality. Overall, historical hazard effects did not correlate with hazard mitigation element quality, but some demographic variables that are associated with urban populations did. The variance in hazard mitigation element quality indicates that while state law may mandate, and even prescribe, hazard mitigation in local comprehensive plans, not all plans will result in equal, or even adequate, protection for people. Furthermore, the mixed correlations with demographic variables representing social and disaster vulnerability shows that, at least at the county level, vulnerability to hazards does not have a strong effect on hazard mitigation element quality. From a theory perspective, my research is significant because it compares assumptions about vulnerability based on hazard history and demographics to plan quality. The only vulnerability-related variables that appeared to correlate, and at that mildly so, with hazard mitigation element quality, were those typically representing more urban areas. In terms of the theory of Neo-Institutionalism and theories related to learning organizations, my research shows that planning departments appear to have set norms and rules of operating that preclude both significant public involvement and learning from prior hazard events.