In Sweden, all banks must report their regulatory capital in their reports to the market and their models for calculating this capital must be approved by the financial authority, Finansinspektionen. The regulatory capital is the capital that a bank has to hold as a security for credit risk and this capital should serve as a buffer if they would loose unexpected amounts of money in their lending business. Loss-Given-Default (LGD) is one of the main drivers of the regulatory capital and the minimum required capital is highly sensitive to the reported LGD. Workout LGD is based on the discounted future cash flows obtained from defaulted customers. The main issue with workout LGD is the incomplete workouts, which in turn results in two problems for banks when they calculate their workout LGD. A bank either has to wait for the workout period to end, in which some cases take several years, or to exclude or make rough assumptions about those incomplete workouts in their calculations. In this study the idea from Survival analysis (SA) methods has been used to solve these problems. The mostly used SA model, the Cox proportional hazards model (Cox model), has been applied to investigate the effect of covariates on the length of survival for a monetary unit. The considered covariates are Country of booking, Secured/Unsecured, Collateral code, Loan-To-Value, Industry code, Exposure-At- Default and Multi-collateral. The data sample was first split into 80 % training sample and 20 % test sample. The applied Cox model was based on the training sample and then validated with the test sample through interpretation of the Kaplan-Meier survival curves for risk groups created from the prognostic index (PI). The results show that the model correctly rank the expected LGD for new customers but is not always able to distinguish the difference between risk groups. With the results presented in the study, Nordea can get an expected LGD for newly defaulted customers, given the customers’ information on the considered covariates in this study. They can also get a clear picture of what factors that drive a low respectively high LGD. / I Sverige måste alla banker rapportera sitt lagstadgade kapital i deras rapporter till marknaden och modellerna för att beräkna detta kapital måste vara godkända av den finansiella myndigheten, Finansinspektionen. Det lagstadgade kapitalet är det kapital som en bank måste hålla som en säkerhet för kreditrisk och den agerar som en buffert om banken skulle förlora oväntade summor pengar i deras utlåningsverksamhet. Loss- Given-Default (LGD) är en av de främsta faktorerna i det lagstadgade kapitalet och kravet på det minimala kapitalet är mycket känsligt för det rapporterade LGD. Workout LGD är baserat på diskonteringen av framtida kassaflöden från kunder som gått i default. Det huvudsakliga problemet med workout LGD är ofullständiga workouts, vilket i sin tur resulterar i två problem för banker när de ska beräkna workout LGD. Banken måste antingen vänta på att workout-perioden ska ta slut, vilket i vissa fall kan ta upp till flera år, eller så får banken exkludera eller göra grova antaganden om dessa ofullständiga workouts i sina beräkningar. I den här studien har idén från Survival analysis (SA) metoder använts för att lösa dessa problem. Den mest använda SA modellen, Cox proportional hazards model (Cox model), har applicerats för att undersöka effekten av kovariat på livslängden hos en monetär enhet. De undersökta kovariaten var Land, Säkrat/Osäkrat, Kollateral-kod, Loan-To-Value, Industri-kod Exposure-At-Default och Multipla-kollateral. Dataurvalet uppdelades först i 80 % träningsurval och 20 % testurval. Den applicerade Cox modellen baserades på träningsurvalet och validerades på testurvalet genom tolkning av Kaplan-Meier överlevnadskurvor för riskgrupperna skapade från prognosindexet (PI). Med de presenterade resultaten kan Nordea beräkna ett förväntat LGD för nya kunder i default, givet informationen i den här studiens undersökta kovariat. Nordea kan också få en klar bild över vilka faktorer som driver ett lågt respektive högt LGD.

Electro-hydraulic proportional flow valves are widely used in hydraulic industry. There are several different structures and working principles. However, flow valves based on the existing principles usually have some shortcomings such as the complexity of the system and additional energy losses. A concept for a two-stage poppet flow valve with pilot pressure drop – pilot spool opening compensation is presented, and the linear relationship between the pilot stage and main stage, the semi-empirical flow equation are used in the electronic flow controller. To achieve the accurate control of the outlet flow, the actual input voltage of the pilot spool valve is regulated according to the actual pilot pressure drop, the desired flow rate and the given input voltage. The results show that the pilot pressure drop – pilot spool opening compensation method is feasible, and the proposed proportional flow control valve with this compensation method has a good static and dynamic performance.

Most commercially available valves are able to produce a large flow rate or a fast response, but are incapable of producing both simultaneously. Commercially available valves that can achieve both are expensive as they require multiple stages of actuation and piloting pressures to deliver large flow rates quickly, preventing them from being broadly used in fluid power applications. This work investigates the design of an Energy Coupling Actuated Valve (ECAV) that is capable of solving this trade-off between large flow and fast switching times through the use of an innovative, high performance actuation system. The ECAV is a new development in valve technology in the area of hydraulic, high speed, proportional and digital on/off valves. High speed actuation is produced through the intermittent coupling of a kinetic energy source with a translational poppet or spool. This coupling process occurs through the use of magnetorheological fluid and a controlled magnetic flux through the fluid in the energy coupler. The ECAV has several design advantages including proportional force control and a large (7mm) stroke capability. Early results predict a nominal flow rate of 100 L/min at a 5 bar pressure drop can be achieved with a 3 ms on/off response time.

With the growth of Pentecostalism over the last few decades, conservative values and punitive sanctions related to the sexual behavior of adolescents and unmarried youth began to play an important and systematic role in Pentecostal and renewed Protestant churches as well as in charismatic Catholic communities. Simultaneously, religion has become an important and highly present factor in the lives of many adolescents and youth in Brazil. In terms of attempting to attract this age group, these churches and communities, stand out, as they have used their resources to create a space for this segment of the population to participate in a religious environment. Youth groups, dating groups, trade courses, lectures, aid work in poor communities, confirmation and other activities such as retreats and religious trips, have been frequently observed in these churches and charismatic communities. In this dissertation, I examine the associations between religious involvement and sexual initiation in Brazil. More specifically, I investigate (1) whether religious denomination and religiosity are associated with age at premarital first sexual intercourse, (2) whether these associations have changed over the last three decades, (3) how different churches and religious leaders address sexual behavior issues, and (4) the mechanisms through which religion can influence adolescents’ sexual behavior in Brazil. These research questions are assessed by employing multiple data sources and methodologies including three Demographic and Health Surveys carried out in Brazil in 1986, 1996, and 2006 and event history analysis, as well as in-depth interview data and participant observation among different religious groups and affiliations by attending several Catholic masses, Protestant religious services, youth groups, Sunday schools, and religious talks/lectures. Quantitative and qualitative findings of this dissertation show that adolescents and youth from Pentecostal churches and communities seem more likely to delay or abstain from premarital sexual initiation when compared to traditional Catholics. I conclude by suggesting that the dissemination of conservative norms and sanctions as well as the availability of greater space for youth to maintain close relationships with these churches have helped create mechanisms through which religion can directly and indirectly influence the lives and sexual behavior of young people in Brazil. / text

<p>This report presents the work carried out aiming towardsdistributed control of electric drives through a networkcommunication medium with temporal constraints, i.e, Ethernet.A general analysis on time delayed systems is carried out,using state space representation of systems in the discretetime domain. The effect of input time delays is identified andis used in the preceding controller designs. The main hardwareapplication focused in this study is a Brushless DC servomotor, whose speed control loop is closed via a 10 MbpsSwitched Ethernet network. The speed control loop, which isapproximately a decade slower than the current control loop, isopened and interfaced to the network at the sensor/actuatornode. It is closed at the speed controller end at another nodein the same local area network (LAN) forming a distributedcontrol system (DCS).</p><p>The Proportional Integral (PI) classical controller designtechnique with ample changes in parameter tuning suitable fortime delayed systems is used. Then the standard Smith Predictoris tested, modified with the algebraic design techniqueCoefficient Diagram Method (CDM), which increases the systemdegrees of freedom. Constant control delay is assumed in thelatter designs despite the slight stochastic nature in thetiming data observations. Hence the poor transient performanceof the system is the price for the robustness inherited to thespeed controllers at the design stage. The controllability andobservability of the DCS may be lost, depending on the range inwhich the control delay is varying. However a state feedbackcontroller deploying on-line delay data, obtained by means ofsynchronizing the sensor node and controller node systemclocks, results in an effective compensation scheme for thenetwork induced delays. Hence the full state feedbackcontroller makes he distributed system transient performanceacceptable for servo applications with the help of poleplacement controller design.</p><p>Further, speed synchronizing controllers have been designedsuch that a speed fluctuation caused by a mechanical loadtorque disturbance on one motor is followed effectively by anyother specified motor in the distributed control network with aminimum tracking or synchronizing error. This type ofperformance is often demanded in many industrial applicationssuch as printing, paper, bagging, pick and place and materialcutting.</p><p><b>Keywords:</b>Brushless DC Motor, Control Delay, DistributedMotion Control Systems, Proportional Integral Controller, SmithPredictor, Speed Synchronization, State Feedback Controller,Stochastic Systems, Switched-Ethernet, Synchronizing Error,Time Delayed Systems, Tracking Error</p>

以往重複事件分析法主要用於醫學與科學領域，近來學者逐漸將其應用至經濟、商學、社會科學等領域，本篇論文採用重複事件分析法，分析S&P 500公司股票回購的行為，回顧過去學者對股票回購之研究，我們檢視公司執行股票回購的三大原因，根據我們的實證結果發現公司可能會以股票回購作為影響公司資本結構的工具，再者亦可能用以減低剩餘資金，然而，本篇論文的實證結果較不支持訊號發射理論。 / In this study, we apply Cox proportional hazard model in recurrent event analysis, which usually used in medical and science studies, to analyze the determinants of the stock repurchase events of S&P 500 companies. We investigate three main incentives that companies conduct stock repurchase. The empirical results show that companies employ repurchase as a technique to alter capital structure. In addition, companies conduct stock repurchase to distribute excess capital. In contrast, there are little evidences to support signaling undervaluation.

The world-wide development of new high-speed rail lines has led to more stringent design requirements for railway bridges, mainly because high-speed trains can cause resonance in the bridge superstructure. Dynamic simulations, often utilising time-consuming finite element analysis (FEA), have become essential for avoiding such problems. Therefore, guidelines and tools to assist structural engineers in the design process are needed. Considerable effort was spent at the beginning of the project, to develop simplified models based on two-dimensional (2D) Bernoulli-Euler beam theory. First, a closed-form solution for proportionally damped multi-span beam, subjected to moving loads was derived (Paper I). The model was later used to develop design charts (Paper II) and study bridges on existing railway lines (Paper III). The model was then extended to non-proportionally damped beams (Paper IV) in order to include the effects of soil-structure interactions. Finally, the importance of the interaction between the surrounding soil and the bridge was verified by calibrating a finite element (FE) model by means of forced vibration tests of an end-frame bridge (Paper V). Recommendations on how to use the models in practical applications are discussed throughout the work. These recommendations include the effects of shear deformation, shear lag, train-bridge and soil-structure interactions, for which illustrative examples are provided. The recommendations are based on the assumption that the modes are well separated, so that the response at resonance is governed by a single mode. The results of the work show that short span bridges, often referred to as `simple´ bridges, are the most problematic with respect to dynamic effects. These systems are typically, non-proportionally damped systems that require detailed analyses to capture the `true´ behaviour. Studying this class of dynamic system showed that they tend to contain non-classical modes that are important for the structure response. For example, the bending mode is found to attain maximum damping when its undamped natural frequency is similar to that of a non-classical mode. / <p>QC 20170213</p>

Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited / Boost phase interception of ballistic missiles is envisioned as the primary response of the layered defense architecture implemented in the ballistic missile defense system. A limited time frame in which to take action and the necessity to implement hit-to-kill technology in the kill vehicle counterbalances the many advantages of boost phase interception. Direct hit missile technology is constrained by the requirement to minimize miss distance to a negligible amount between the kill vehicle and optimum aimpoint on the target. This thesis examines kill vehicle effectiveness, which is tantamount to miss distance, as a function of both the kill vehicle maximum acceleration capability and the guidance system time constant necessary to destroy a target. The kill vehicle guidance system is modeled in MATLAB as a fifth-order binomial series with proportional navigation. The simulation examines the effect of an accelerating target attributed to powered flight and aimpoint displacement caused by a shift in tracking point from the target plume to the payload when resolution occurs. The kill vehicle minimum requirements as indi-cated by the simulation include a lateral acceleration capability of four times the target acceleration and a guidance system time constant that is less than one-tenth the estimated flight time. / Lieutenant, Canadian Navy

Survival Analysis generally uses the median survival time as a common summary statistic. While the median possesses the desirable characteristic of being unbiased, there are times when it is not the best statistic to describe the data at hand. Royston and Parmar (2011) provide an argument that the restricted mean survival time should be the summary statistic used when the proportional hazards assumption is in doubt. Work in Restricted Means dates back to 1949 when J.O. Irwin developed a calculation for the standard error of the restricted mean using Greenwood’s formula. Since then the development of the restricted mean has been thorough in the literature, but its use in practical analyses is still limited. One area that is not well developed in the literature is the choice of the time point to which the mean is restricted. The aim of this dissertation is to develop a data driven method that allows the user to find a cut-point to use to restrict the mean. Three methods are developed. The first is a simple method that locates the time at which the maximum distance between two curves exists. The second is a method adapted from a Renyi-type test, typically used when proportional hazards assumptions are not met, where the Renyi statistics are plotted and piecewise regression model is fit. The join point of the two pieces is where the meant will be restricted. Third is a method that applies a nonlinear model fit to the hazard estimates at each event time, the model allows for the hazards between the two groups to be different up until a certain time, after which the groups hazards are the same. The time point where the two groups’ hazards become the same is the time to which the mean is restricted. The methods are evaluated using MSE and bias calculations, and bootstrap techniques to estimate the variance.

System of proportional representation in the Czech Republic and its critique Abstract The diploma thesis "System of proportional representation in the Czech Republic and its critique" deals with the proportional representation in the Czech Republic, particularly its most criticized aspects. The purpose of this paper is to analyse this system, its characteristics, forms and reforms under the Czech conditions. The first chapter defines proportional representation and describes its constituent elements - a legal threshold, electoral formulas (quotas and divisors), electoral districts and tiers and preference votes. Chapter Two is concerned with four specific forms of this system applied in the Czech Republic. It describes elections to the Chamber of Deputies, local elections, elections to the regional assemblies and European elections. The third chapter outlines the problems of Czech electoral reforms - specifically the big reform of elections to the Chamber of Deputies from 2000 and the case of Prague elections in 2010 which both had to be brought to the Constitutional Court. Chapter Four offers a critical look on proportional representation in the Czech Republic. It consists of five parts. The first part focuses on the confusing system of local elections. Part two deals with the legal threshold. The third...