Thesis (M.A. in National Security Affairs)--Naval Postgraduate School, June 2005. / Thesis Advisor(s): Donald Abenheim, Hans-Eberhardt Peters. Includes bibliographical references (p. 93-98). Also available online.

Thesis (M.A. in International Security and Civil-Military Relations)--Naval Postgraduate School, March 2005. / Thesis Advisor(s): Donald Abenheim, Maria Rasmussen. Includes bibliographical references (p. 57-60). Also available online.

Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of Waikato, 2007. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 326-348). Also available via the World Wide Web.

The occurrence of several high-magnitude abrupt climatic changes during the last glacial period (~120-10 ka BP) was first recognised within the Greenland deep ice-core records. Subsequent identification of similar climatic variations has demonstrated the potential global significance of these events. Three of these millennial-scale events occurred during Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 4 (~79-59 ka BP), a period characterised by cooler global temperatures. An understanding of the forcing mechanisms and the environmental responses to these events is currently unattainable due to chronological uncertainties and the inability to precisely synchronise disparate records. Tephrochronology, however, has the potential to facilitate high-precision ice-marine correlations by tracing isochronous horizons between different sequences spanning this period. This potential is demonstrated through the construction of the first tephrochronological framework for MIS 4 within the North Atlantic region. Fourteen cryptotephra horizons are identified within the NGRIP and GRIP ice-cores and the MD04-2822 marine core. Both major and trace element compositions are presented for these previously unknown tephra horizons and form the backbone of this framework. In addition, high-precision, independent age estimates have been assigned to the horizons identified within the ice-core sequences. This framework represents a significant first step towards the regional and potentially hemispheric synchronisation of MIS 4 climatic archives. As well as providing the first evidence for the activity of Icelandic volcanic systems during MIS 4, this framework also demonstrates the widespread dispersal of basaltic-trachybasaltic products from the Jan Mayen volcanic region and potentially the deposition of Japanese volcanic material over Greenland. In addition, investigations of laser ablation inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry have demonstrated that reliable trace element characterisations can be obtained from tephra shards?20 ?m in diameter, which opens up new possibilities for the incorporation of this technique in distal tephra studies.

abstract: ABSTRACT Famine is the result of a complex set of environmental and social factors. Climate conditions are established as environmental factors contributing to famine occurrence, often through teleconnective patterns. This dissertation is designed to investigate the combined influence on world famine patterns of teleconnections, specifically the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Southern Oscillation (SO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), or regional climate variations such as the South Asian Summer Monsoon (SASM). The investigation is three regional case studies of famine patterns specifically, Egypt, the British Isles, and India. The first study (published in Holocene) employs the results of a Principal Component Analysis (PCA) yielding a SO-NAO eigenvector to predict major Egyptian famines between AD 1049-1921. The SO-NAO eigenvector (1) successfully discriminates between the 5-10 years preceding a famine and the other years, (2) predicts eight of ten major famines, and (3) correctly identifies fifty out of eighty events (63%) of food availability decline leading up to major famines. The second study investigates the impact of the NAO, PDO, SO, and AMO on 63 British Isle famines between AD 1049 and 1914 attributed to climate causes in historical texts. Stepwise Regression Analysis demonstrates that the 5-year lagged NAO is the primary teleconnective influence on famine patterns; it successfully discriminates 73.8% of weather-related famines in the British Isles from 1049 to 1914. The final study identifies the aggregated influence of the NAO, SO, PDO, and SASM on 70 Indian famines from AD 1049 to 1955. PCA results in a NAO-SOI vector and SASM vector that predicts famine conditions with a positive NAO and negative SO, distinct from the secondary SASM influence. The NAO-famine relationship is consistently the strongest; 181 of 220 (82%) of all famines occurred during positive NAO years. Ultimately, the causes of famine are complex and involve many factors including societal and climatic. This dissertation demonstrates that climate teleconnections impact famine patterns and often the aggregates of multiple climate variables hold the most significant climatic impact. These results will increase the understanding of famine patterns and will help to better allocate resources to alleviate future famines. / Dissertation/Thesis / Doctoral Dissertation Geography 2017

Ce travail de thèse s’intéresse à deux zones de l’Atlantique Nord : la région subpolaire et la région subtropicale. Cette large couverture permet d’étudier le cycle de l’eau dans des régions hydrologiquement différentes, où des processus variés rentrent en jeu comme l’évaporation, la convection atmosphérique, la formation des précipitations, le cycle saisonnier de la glace de mer, les apports des rivières et des glaciers, et l’advection des masses d’eau et des masses d’air. Dans la région subtropicale, les variations des compositions isotopiques de la vapeur d’eau sont étudiées afin de comprendre le rôle de l’évaporation et du mélange avec la troposphère libre dans le contrôle de l’humidité et des compositions isotopiques à la surface des océans. Ces données innovantes recueillies in situ principalement au cours de l’été 2012 dans le gyre subtropical de l’Atlantique nord (campagne STRASSE) ont offert l’opportunité d’étudier les processus de fractionnement isotopique lors de l’évaporation océanique et le renouvellement de l’air de la couche limite atmosphérique. Aux plus hautes latitudes de l’océan Atlantique nord, la circulation de surface du gyre subpolaire permet le transfert d’eaux froides et dessalées en provenance de la région (sub)arctique vers l’intérieur du gyre. Dans le cadre de cette thèse, un jeu de données a été recueilli sur la période 2010-2014 et porte plus particulièrement sur la région du courant du Labrador et permet de se poser les questions suivantes : Comment le cycle de la glace de mer affecte la salinité de ces courants dessalés ? Comment évolue l’apport en eau météorique dans un contexte de fonte accélérée des glaciers continentaux ? / This thesis focuses on two regions of the North Atlantic: the subtropical gyre and the subpolar gyre. This large coverage allows an investigation of the water cycle in different hydrological regimes, where various processes take place such as sea ice seasonal cycle, rivers runoff, continental ice melt and advection of air and water masses. In the subtropical region, the variability of the isotopic composition of the water vapor is studied to understand the role of evaporation and mixing with free troposphere in humidity and isotopic compositions at the ocean surface. In particular, new data collected during summer 2012 (STRASSE cruise) gave the opportunity to explore kinetic fractionation processes during oceanic evaporation and air renewal in the atmospheric boundary layer. In the subpolar region, the surface circulation is cyclonic and transfers cold and fresh water from the arctic region to the interior of the subpolar gyre. For this thesis, data were collected between 2010 and 2014 from oceanographic cruises and commercial vessels to study the gyre interior and the main coastal currents carrying water from the arctic to lower latitudes. The study is mainly focused on the Labrador Current. There, isotopic measurements are used to identify the freshwater sources and to consider the following questions: How is the salinity of fresh currents affected by the sea ice formation and melting? How is the contribution of meteoric waters changing in a context of an acceleration of the melting of continental glaciers?

Flight across the North Atlantic is a routine process now, with thousands of flights carrying millions of passengers between Europe and North America every year quickly, safely, and affordably. By some measures it remains the busiest international flight corridor in the world and the most profitable for airlines. Yet there were no planes capable of making the flight a mere century ago. Aviation underwent a period of rapid development and expansion during the twentieth century that transformed the North Atlantic from a barrier into a central corridor in the global air network. This dissertation examines the development of civil aviation on the North Atlantic from 1919 to 1970, focusing on political, economic, and technological factors. Transatlantic flight was a focus of aviation but the earliest planes lacked the range needed to make the crossing. Technological improvements let pioneering aviators cross the ocean by 1919, proving that it was possible though difficult without further advances. Infrastructure also needed to be further developed since the North Atlantic was a hostile environment, with bad weather and limited facilities for aircraft in emergencies. Until 1945, the governments of the North Atlantic region thoroughly explored, studied, and built the infrastructure to make regular transatlantic possible. Postwar, governments supported their airlines through further infrastructural improvements, subsidies, by funding aeronautics, and by complex negotiations with foreign countries to open the skies to passenger travel. By 1970, transatlantic flight was a routine endeavour enjoyed by the masses and supported by systems invisible to the average traveler.

The climate variability over the North Atlantic region is described in the 10-50 year band, using a 500-year integration of the Hamburg ECHAMl/LSG coupled general circulation model. In order to isolate nearly periodic components of the atmosphere and the ocean, the multichannel version of the singular spectrum analysis (MSSA) is applied to 11 components of the climate system. In doing so the main focus is on the turbulent exchange between the two subsystems. One interdecadal oscillation of the system ocean and atmosphere is detected with a period of about 18 years. The associated anomalies of sea level pressure (SLP) are situated east of Newfoundland while these of the geopotential height at 500 hPa are slightly shifted to the East. Both the fields undergo a primarily standing oscillation. The sea surface temperature (SST) and the sub surface temperature anomalies have a large extension along the 40° N latitude circle with most of their variability south of Newfoundland. lt is found that the SST anomaly is primarily generated by the temperature advection in the upper ocean layer which is coupled to the Subpolar Gyre strength and Ekman pumping vertical velocity. Both the processes are forced by the atmosphere. In a further analysis applied only to the SST and the Geopotential height at 500 hPa over the whole Northern Hemisphere this 18 year mode was also isolated. The modes obtained by the local and hemispheric analyses are well correlated both in time and space, suggesting a more active role of atmosphere than of the ocean, in addition a strong modulation of the amplitude of the oscillation due to local processes over the North Atlantic was detected. / Die Klimavariabilität über dem Nordatlantik wird anhand einer 500 Jahre Integration des Hamburger gekoppelten Klimamodels ECHAMl/LSG untersucht. Um periodische Komponenten in Ozean und Atmosphäre zu isolieren, wird die MSSA ("multichannel singular spectrum analysis") auf 11 Komponenten des Klimasystems angewandt. Bei den Analysen wird besonderes Augenmerk auf den turbulenten Austausch zwischen beiden Subsystemen gelegt. Es kann eine Oszillation des gekoppelten Systems mit einer Periode von etwa 18 Jahren detektiert werden. Die Anomalie des Bodendrucks weist ihre maximale Amplitude östlich von Neufundland auf, während die Anomalie des 500 hPa Geopotentials leicht östlich dazu verschoben ist. Die Anomalie der SST zeigt ihre größte Variabilität südlich von Neufundland. Diese wird im wesentlichen durch die Temperaturadvektion in der oberen Ozeanschicht generiert, welche im wesentlichen an den subpolaren ozeanischen Wirbel sowie an das "Ekman pumping" gekoppelt ist. Beide Prozesse werden durch die Atmosphäre angetrieben. In einer weiteren Analyse, in der die MSSA auf die SST und das 500 hPa Geopotential der gesamten nördlichen Hemisphäre angewandt wird, kann ebenfalls ein Oszillation von 18 Jahren detektiert werden. Diese Mode korreliert räumlich und zeitlich gut mit dem der lokalen Analyse über dem Nordatlantik, welches auf ein aktivere Rolle der Atmosphäre hinweist. Die starken Unterschiede der Amplitudenmodulation könnten durch lokale Prozesse bedingt sein.

The climate variability over the North Atlantic region is described in the 10-50 year band, using a 500-year integration of the Hamburg ECHAMl/LSG coupled general circulation model. In order to isolate nearly periodic components of the atmosphere and the ocean, the multichannel version of the singular spectrum analysis (MSSA) is applied to 11 components of the climate system. In doing so the main focus is on the turbulent exchange between the two subsystems. One interdecadal oscillation of the system ocean and atmosphere is detected with a period of about 18 years. The associated anomalies of sea level pressure (SLP) are situated east of Newfoundland while these of the geopotential height at 500 hPa are slightly shifted to the East. Both the fields undergo a primarily standing oscillation. The sea surface temperature (SST) and the sub surface temperature anomalies have a large extension along the 40° N latitude circle with most of their variability south of Newfoundland. lt is found that the SST anomaly is primarily generated by the temperature advection in the upper ocean layer which is coupled to the Subpolar Gyre strength and Ekman pumping vertical velocity. Both the processes are forced by the atmosphere. In a further analysis applied only to the SST and the Geopotential height at 500 hPa over the whole Northern Hemisphere this 18 year mode was also isolated. The modes obtained by the local and hemispheric analyses are well correlated both in time and space, suggesting a more active role of atmosphere than of the ocean, in addition a strong modulation of the amplitude of the oscillation due to local processes over the North Atlantic was detected. / Die Klimavariabilität über dem Nordatlantik wird anhand einer 500 Jahre Integration des Hamburger gekoppelten Klimamodels ECHAMl/LSG untersucht. Um periodische Komponenten in Ozean und Atmosphäre zu isolieren, wird die MSSA ('multichannel singular spectrum analysis') auf 11 Komponenten des Klimasystems angewandt. Bei den Analysen wird besonderes Augenmerk auf den turbulenten Austausch zwischen beiden Subsystemen gelegt. Es kann eine Oszillation des gekoppelten Systems mit einer Periode von etwa 18 Jahren detektiert werden. Die Anomalie des Bodendrucks weist ihre maximale Amplitude östlich von Neufundland auf, während die Anomalie des 500 hPa Geopotentials leicht östlich dazu verschoben ist. Die Anomalie der SST zeigt ihre größte Variabilität südlich von Neufundland. Diese wird im wesentlichen durch die Temperaturadvektion in der oberen Ozeanschicht generiert, welche im wesentlichen an den subpolaren ozeanischen Wirbel sowie an das 'Ekman pumping' gekoppelt ist. Beide Prozesse werden durch die Atmosphäre angetrieben. In einer weiteren Analyse, in der die MSSA auf die SST und das 500 hPa Geopotential der gesamten nördlichen Hemisphäre angewandt wird, kann ebenfalls ein Oszillation von 18 Jahren detektiert werden. Diese Mode korreliert räumlich und zeitlich gut mit dem der lokalen Analyse über dem Nordatlantik, welches auf ein aktivere Rolle der Atmosphäre hinweist. Die starken Unterschiede der Amplitudenmodulation könnten durch lokale Prozesse bedingt sein.

We used ERA-Interim reanalysis data to perform a pattern analysis of the tropospheric mean meridional temperature flux in the Northern Hemisphere exploiting an artificial neural network called self organizing map (SOM). The basic explanation of the neural network will be given for a better understanding of the presented result. The neural network provides an analyses of the given data in terms of a decomposition into distinct patterns. The results confirms that the strongest fluxes occur over the North Atlantic. Additionally, the SOM showed that in general fluxes over the North Atlantic are most common over all analyzed winters. / Wir verwendeten ERA-Interim Reanalysedaten. Dabei wurde für eine Analyse des über die Troposphäre gemittelten Temperaturflusses ein künstliches neuronales Netzwerks namens Selbstorganisierende Karte (Self Organizing Map, SOM) benutzt. Das neuronale Netzwerk hilft dabei den Datensatz in bestimmte Muster zu unterteilen. Die Ergebnisse bestätigen, dass die größten Flüsse über dem Nordatlantik in die Arktis vordringen. Weiterhin zeigt sich mithilfe der SOM-Methode, dass im Allgemeinen für den analysierten Zeitraum Flüsse über dem Nordatlantik häufiger sind als andere Pfade in Richtung Arktis.