Advanced Traffic Management Systems (ATMS) and Advanced Traveler Information Systems (ATIS) utilize real-time information to apply measures improve the transportation system performance. Two key inputs for ATMS and ATIS are dynamic travel times and dynamic OD matrices. Bluetooth devices detection technology has been increasingly used to track vehicle movements on the network. This possibility naturally raises the question of whether this information can be used to improve the dynamic estimation of OD matrices. Previous research efforts rely entirely on the Bluetooth OD counts for estimation, which is why they require high penetration rates. In our study, we use Bluetooth data to supplement loop detector data while estimating dynamic OD matrices using Kalman filter. We use OD proportions as state variables and travel times, link counts, Bluetooth OD matrix and input and exit volumes as measurements. A simulation experiment is conducted in VISSIM and is designed such that the traffic network emulates the observed traffic patterns. Two case studies are performed for comparison. One uses Bluetooth OD matrices as input for estimation while the other does not. The Bluetooth ODs used in the Kalman filter estimation was found to improve the OD flow estimates. The developed methods were compared with synthetic OD estimation software (QueensOD) and were found to be more effective in obtaining dynamic OD flow estimates. A case of study with fewer detectors was also studied. When it was compared with a similar method developed by Gharat(2011), the errors were lower. / Master of Science

During the last century, the number of car users has increased as an effect of the increasing population growth. To manage the environmental and infrastructural challenges that comes with a more congested traffic network, traffic planning has become of higher importance to analyze the current traffic state and to predict future capacity challenges and effects of investments. These analysis and evaluations are commonly performed in different traffic analysis tools, where updated and realistic traffic demand needs to be provided to ensure reasonable results. In this thesis, a macroscopic model of Norrköping municipality constructed in the traffic demand modelling software Visum and a daily Origin-Destination(OD)-matrix is considered. The goal of this thesis is to produce a method that modify the current daily demand matrix into hourly demand matrices, called hourly target matrices, that represents a typical weekday. The goal is also to implement and evaluate the OD-estimation algorithm Simultaneous Perturbation Stochastic Approximation (SPSA) to obtain updated and valid demand matrices for the network model of Norrköping. The method of dividing the daily demand matrix into hourly target matrices is based on the paper by Spiess %26 Suter (1990). The method makes use of the available daily trip purpose matrices combined with hourly link flow observations from 96 links in a multiple linear regression model to obtain 24 hourly demand matrices. The resulting matrices are compared with the link flow observations and has different levels of R^2-fit, the maximum fit is 85.79 % and the minimum fit is 55.89 %. The average R^2-value is 72 %. The OD-estimation based on SPSA is performed on the AM and PM peak hours. The algorithm is implemented in Python scripts that are called from Visum where the traffic assignments is calculated. The result is an increase in R^2-value since the link flow difference between estimated and observed link flow is decreased. In total, the estimated link flows are improved by 7.4 % in the AM peak hour and 15.6 % in the PM peak hour. The total absolute change in OD-demand is 3 871 trips for AM peak hour and 6 452 trips for the PM peak hour. The estimated OD-matrices are evaluated by qualitatively visualizing the difference in heat maps and in the quantitative measure structural similarity index. The result is no major structural change from the hourly target matrices which verifies that the information used when the target matrices is produced still is considered. The total demand increased in both hours, with 505 respectively 2 431 trips and flows in some OD-pairs has a very high percental change. This was restricted by adding a penalty term to the SPSA-algorithm on the PM peak hour. The result of penalized SPSA is a much less increase of total demand as well as less percental change of the OD-flows. Though, this to a cost of not decreasing the link flow difference in the same magnitude.

Dynamic OD estimators based on traffic measurements inevitably encounter the indeterminateness problem on the posterior OD flows as such systems structurally have more unknowns than constraints. To resolve this problem and take advantage of the emerging urban mobility data, the paper proposes a dynamic OD estimator based on location-based social networking (LBSN) data, leveraging the two-stage stochastic programming framework, under the assumption that similar check-in patterns are generated by the same OD pattern. The search space of the OD flows will be limited by integrating a batch of realizations/scenarios of the second-stage problem state (i.e. check-in pattern) in the model. The two-stage stochastic programming model decomposes in a master problem and a set of subproblems (one per scenario) via the Benders decomposition algorithm, which will be tackled alternately. The preliminary results from experiments conducted with the Foursquare data of Tokyo, Japan, show that the proposed OD estimator can effectively recurrent the check-in patterns and result in a good posterior OD estimate.

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The idea behind this report is based on the fact that it is not only the number of users in the traffic network that is increasing, the number of connected devices such as probe vehicles and mobile sources has increased dramatically in the last decade. These connected devices provide large-scale mobility data and new opportunities to analyze the current traffic situation as they traverse through the network and continuously send out different types of information like Global Positioning System (GPS) data and Mobile Network Data (MND). Travel demand is often described in terms of an Origin Destination (OD) matrix which represents the number of trips from an origin zone to a destination zone in a geographic area. The aim of this master thesis is to develop and evaluate a data-driven method for estimation of dynamic OD matrices using unsupervised learning, sensor fusion and large-scale mobility data. Traditionally, OD matrices are estimated based on travel surveys and link counts. The problem is that these sources of information do not provide the quality required for online control of the traffic network. A method consisting of an offline process and an online process has therefore been developed. The offline process utilizes historical large-scale mobility data to improve an inaccurate prior OD matrix. The online process utilizes the results and tuning parameters from the offline estimation in combination with real-time observations to describe the current traffic situation. A simulation study on a toy network with synthetic data was used to evaluate the data-driven estimation method. Observations based on GPS data, MND and link counts were simulated via a traffic simulation tool. The results showed that the sensor fusion algorithms Kalman filter and Kalman filter smoothing can be used when estimating dynamic OD matrices. The results also showed that the quality of the data sources used for the estimation is of high importance. Aggregating large-scale mobility data as GPS data and MND by using the unsupervised learning method Principal Component Analysis (PCA) improves the quality of the large-scale mobility data and so the estimation results. / <p>Examensarbetet är utfört vid Institutionen för teknik och naturvetenskap (ITN) vid Tekniska fakulteten, Linköpings universitet</p>