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Oil is currently one of the most used energy sources on earth because enters into almost all goods and services. A number of economy and households is dependent on oil. In recent years a trend in the oil market raises many questions. The scope of this diploma thesis is to identify and to analyze key factors influencing the oil market. The next aim is to predict future development of this market. The analysis is focused on the most important economic, geopolitical, environmental and technological factors affecting the oil market. Methodology of the thesis is based on the literature research and on the basic statistical methods to analyze the factors and estimate the future of the oil market.

The first part of this dissertation investigates the possibility of an output cut by a firm as a result of an increase in demand in industries with constrained capacities. We are specially interested in the crude oil industry, although the paper has implications beyond that market. Two simple closely related models are developed. In both models a firm cuts the output at some point solely because of an increase in demand. We use this fact to explain the sharp decline of the crude oil prices in 1986. There are price and quantity hysteresis in the second model. The price hysteresis has two implications. First, the price path when the demand increases might be different from the price path when the demand decreases. This in turn implies that a temporary shock in the demand for (or supply of) crude oil can cause permanent changes in the price. We claim that the temporary changes in the supply of crude oil in 1973 resulted in the price hysteresis phenomenon described in the second model in such a way that it kept the prices high even after the return of the producers to the market. The second part investigates the relationship between the taste for public expenditure and the size and distribution of social groups in a society. Societies with ethnic heterogeneity spend less on redistribution and welfare programs and impose lower tax rates relative to homogeneous societies. We construct a theoretical model to explain these facts. There are two social groups in the model: a minority group and a majority group. When members of one group feel empathy for each other but not for members of the other group, then taxes, and redistribution depend upon the size and distribution of those groups. At first, the equilibrium tax rate and redistribution decrease as the size of the minority group increases from zero, then eventually, the relationship between them becomes positive. / Ph. D.

Crude oil is an important commodity of world trade and it has become an essential part of everyday life. It is a necessary condition of economic growth, which in the current situation of economic boom of China, India and other developing countries entails an economically, ecologically, socially and geopolitically unsustainable problem. The turbulent sequence of past events on the crude oil market only foreshadows the future development that is going to occure after achieving the crude oil production peak. The following irreversible changes will be more revolutionary than evolutional. The era of cheap oil will parish and the 21st century is going to be distinguished by fights for energy and resources. This is one of the reasons why many renowned institutions and organisations are concerned with these questions, trying to predict future scenarios and find feasible solutions. The world needs secure, renewable and environmentally friendly energy sources, however crude oil is unfortunately none of them. Radical transition from crude oil economy to a clean alternative one, that is probably the most suitable solution to current situation, will require engagement of governments, organisations and individuals as well. It is an inevitable step of preserving the world for humanity and the coming generations. Crude oil market perspectives are quite well foreseeable for the coming decades, questionable remains only the proper solution of the rising problems and action of taking the correct steps in the right direction.

Yes / This study contributes to the existing literature on the relationship between oil market shocks and the green bond market by investigating the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on their dynamic correlation. We first decompose the oil market shocks into components using a time-frequency framework. Then, we combine wavelet decomposition and quantile coherence and causality methods to discuss changes during the COVID-19 era. We observe positive effects of both supply-driven and demand-driven oil shocks on the green bond market at most quantile levels. However, supply-driven oil price changes play a major role. The results also indicate that long-term changes have a greater impact than short-term changes on the connection between oil and green bond markets. Nevertheless, the COVID-19 pandemic changed the nature of the causal relationship, as we observed no relationship under extreme market conditions during the pandemic era. We argue that the economic and social impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic have left investors focusing on the short-term substitution between oil and green bond markets. / This research was supported by the Major Projects of the National Natural Science Fund of China [NO. 71991483], the Natural Science Fund of Hunan Province [NO. 2022JJ40647] and the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities of Central South University [NO. 2022ZZTS0353].

This study aims to analyse the precrisis period on the oil markets with a primary objective of assessing the role of speculation in the commodity's price development and its volatility. First it depicts the rapidly increasing speculative activity on the futures market together with the parallel oil price surge. The speculation is initially proxied by non-commercial traders' positions and subsequently quantified by Working's T-index. The paper then uses speculative traders' positions and both spot and futures prices to test for Granger causality within the framework of VAR models. For the sake of consistency it also evaluates causal links between speculation and inventories level. Further the study investigates the speculation impact on volatility of oil prices by employing various approaches in volatility quantification including GARCH models. Contrary to expectations we find that the speculatio's impact on both prices and their volatility is rather insignificant. In the last chapter we therefore seek for an explanation of the oil price developments by examining the market fundamentals. The interaction of supply and demand finally gives substantial evidence for understanding the price developments in the precrisis period.

Thesis (MBA (Business Management))--University of Stellenbosch, 2010. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: The title of the study provides a summary of the content that is explored: The South African Liquid Fuels Market: Yesterday, Today and Tomorrow. A period spanning nearly 140 years is covered from 1882 to 2020. In “Yesterday”, the history of liquid fuels in South Africa is explored to understand the development of the liquid fuels market. The periods pre-1954, post-1954 and post-2003 are discussed. The period post-1954 is important due to the establishment of a highly developed crude oil refining and synthetic fuel production capability in South Africa. A section is also included to explain the international oil market because of the direct impact of crude oil and international oil prices on the South African liquid fuels market. “Today” explains the fuel price and demand and supply dynamics. The major role players in the liquid fuel market that shape the market are discussed. Government is actively involved in the market through the Department of Minerals and Energy and associated institutions, the CEF Group and Nersa. The South African Petroleum Association represents the seven largest oil companies in South Africa. An overview is provided of these seven companies and their operations in South Africa. In “Tomorrow”, international developments and domestic issues that will influence the liquid fuels market in the period 2010 to 2020 are identified. The future oil price and related issues of “peak oil” and fuel alternative vehicles have the ability to change the oil landscape dramatically. On the domestic side, the future petrol and diesel supply and demand balance are discussed in detail. The impact of the South African government on the market through clean fuel specifications and possible fuel price deregulation is also highlighted. It is clear from the study that historical as well as current supply and demand factors indicate that the South African liquid fuels market will continue to be a growth market that will be influenced by international oil market developments and domestic factors in the period 2010 to 2020. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Die titel van die studie verskaf ‘n opsomming van die inhoud wat gedek word: Die Suid-Afrikaanse Brandstof Mark: Gister, Vandag en Môre. ‘n Periode van bykans 140 jaar word ondersoek wat strek vanaf 1882 tot 2020. “Gister” fokus op die geskiedenis van die brandstofmark in Suid-Afrika. Die periodes voor-1954, na-1954 en na-2003 word bespreek. In die periode na-1954 het Suid-Afrika ‘n indrukwekkende vermoë ontwikkel om ru-olie te raffineer en sintetiese brandstof te vervaardig. Die internasionale olie mark word ook bespreek as gevolg van die direkte impak wat ru-olie en internasionale olie pryse op die Suid-Afrikaanse brandstof mark het. “Vandag” verduidelik die brandstofprys asook vraag en aanbod faktore. Die belangrikste rolspelers wat die mark beinvloed word bespreek. Die regering is aktief betrokke in die mark deur die Deparment van Minerale en Energie en verwante organisasies, naamlik die CEF Groep en Nersa. Die Suid-Afrikaanse Branstofvereeniging verteenwoordig die sewe grootste olie maatskappye in Suid-Afrika. Die sewe maatskappye word bespreek en ‘n oorsig gegee oor hulle belange en bedrywighede in Suid-Afrika. In “Môre” word internasionale gebeure en plaaslike sake wat die brandstofmark in die periode 2010 tot 2020 kan beïnvloed ondersoek. Die toekomstige olie prys en verwante sake soos “spits olie” en voertuie wat van alternatiewe brandstof gebuik maak het die totale olie landskap verander. Op plaaslike vlak word die toekomstige petrol en diesel vraag en aanbod balans noukeurig ondersoek. Die Suid-Afrikaanse regering se impak deur skoon brandstof wetgewing en die moontlike de-regulering van die brandstofprys word beklemtoon. Die studie beklemtoon dat historiese asook huidige vraag en aanbod faktore daarop dui dat die Suid-Afrikaanse branstofmark steeds ‘n groeiende mark in die periode 2010 tot 2020 sal wees, wat beïnvloed sal word deur gebeure op die internasionale olie mark en plaaslike faktore.

South Korea established a non-competitive natural gas market in order to have a stable and economical supply of natural gas. The allegation has been raised about the inefficiency of this non-competitive market structure, but reform attempts have failed because of protests. Proponents of this incumbent system argue that gas needs to be supplied by the public sector in a monopolized structure so as to have a stable supply of this essential good, natural gas, and to prevent market failures like exorbitant gas prices and a deficit in supply due to a natural monopoly. They also argue that the unified gas purchase endows purchasing power. However, the gas industry does not exactly meet the categorical characteristics of an essential good or a natural monopoly and the concept of purchasing power is hardly accepted. Moreover, according to agent theory and property theory, the current market and firms are likely to be inefficient; several events are proving this inefficiency to be true. However, people remain unsure about the necessity of gas market reform. Ironically, South Korea has a different policy and market approach to the oil market despite the similarity of these two fuels. The oil market in South Korea constitutes an effective competitive market via a liberalized market, and is supplying the fuel stably and economically, contrary to people’s expectations. This thesis contrasts different approaches in South Korea toward similar hydrocarbon fuels, oil and gas. The competitiveness of the oil market is examined through statistics, Lerner index, analyzing of the profit trend in the market, and price comparison by countries. Results support the validity of South Korean gas market reform if the oil market is effectively competitive through liberalization. / text