Made available in DSpace on 2016-08-29T11:12:55Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 tese_4309_DISSERTAÇÃO - Tempo, path dependence e instabilidade - as convergências entre Keynes e Sraffa.pdf: 740150 bytes, checksum: 45037124a0591263a839cfa4822a5bd8 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2012-06-01 / TEMPO, PATH DEPENDENCE E INSTABILIDADE: AS CONVERGÊNCIAS ENTRE KEYNES E SRAFFA A dissertação analisa alguns tópicos convergentes nas teorias de Keynes e de Sraffa. Aborda a questão do tempo na teoria econômica e da path dependence na teoria neoclássica. Estuda o problema dos preços de produção e as condições para que eles funcionem como centros de gravidade. Através da Teoria Geral de Keynes, examina uma determinada forma de path dependence, aquela que diz respeito à influência das expectativas de curto prazo sobre as expectativas de longo prazo. Além disso, analisa como a teoria keynesiana trata dois temas específicos: um relacionado às flutuações endógenas da economia, e outro relacionado à instabilidade do processo econômico. Para tanto, utiliza, além da Teoria Geral, outros autores que trataram sobre o tema, como Harrod, Kregel e Setterfield. Por meio da teoria de Sraffa, mostra que não é possível formular um modelo com uma posição de equilíbrio de longo prazo. Tal fato resulta em instabilidade do processo econômico, em oposição à estabilidade gerada pelo modelo de crescimento de Solow. Por fim, trata sobre questões relacionadas à natureza do capital.

Orientador: Eleitério Fernando da Silva Prado / Banca: Eduardo Strachman / Banca: Dimária Silva e Meirelles / Resumo: O objetivo deste trabalho é analisar como o processo de inovações tecnológicas é tratado pela Teoria dos Sistemas Complexos. A abordagem neoclássica tradicional, ao partir de pressupostos bastante restritivos sobre os agentes e os mercados, não é capaz de fornecer explicações plausíveis aos vários problemas econômicos da vida real. Ao desconsiderar a dinâmica dos fenômenos econômicos, essa abordagem foi incapaz de incorporar os aspectos do processo de inovação e mudança tecnológica. A abordagem evolucionária, nesse sentido, ao considerar a racionalidade limitada, incerteza e heterogeneidade presente em ambientes que exibem inovação, foi capaz de fornecer um tratamento mais próximo da realidade. A inovação é, então, entendida como uma mudança descontínua que altera as condições estruturais gerando desenvolvimento, progresso e evolução no sistema. Já abordagem dos sistemas complexos, ao apresentar um arcabouço não reducionista e que se fundamenta sobre uma perspectiva evolucionária e sistêmica, concebe a economia como um sistema composto por agentes heterogêneos que interagem entre si. Apesar do ambiente de incerteza nas decisões tomadas, os agentes procuram se adaptar às informações recebidas do meio e se auto-organizarem gerando com isso novos padrões de auto-ordenamento e estruturas emergentes. A modelagem, nesse sentido, tem por principal objetivo descobrir as propriedades emergentes resultantes da interação entre os agentes no sistema. Por fim chega-se a conclusão de que as inovações tecnológicas apresentaram resultados mais satisfatórios e mais condizentes quando analisadas dentro dessa perspectiva agent-based. / Abstract: The purpose of this dissertation is to discuss how processes of technological innovation are analyzed by Complex Systems Theory. Traditional neoclassical approach is unable to provide plausible explanations of a number of real world economic issues, as it starts from very restrictive assumptions on agents and markets. By neglecting economic phenomena dynamics, it has been unable of comprehend some aspects of innovation and technical change processes under its purview. Evolutionary economics, by taking issues such as bounded rationality, uncertainty and heterogeneity in environments with innovation, has been better positioned to afford a closer-to-reality treatment. In this approach, innovation is seen as a disruptive change that alters the system's structural conditions, generating development, progress, and evolution. Accordingly, the complex systems approach, by furnishing a non-reductionist framework and in being supported on an evolutionary and systemic perspective, conceives the economy as a system composed by interactions among heterogeneous agents. Nevertheless uncertainty in the decision-making process, yet the agents endeavors to adapt to information coming from the environment and to self-organize. In doing so, they generate new patterns of self-ordained emerging structures. Modeling techniques, in this sense, aim primarily to uncover emerging properties resulting from agents' interaction in the system. The main conclusion is that technological innovations are more successfully and more cogently described when analyzed from this agent-based perspective. / Mestre

This thesis is trying to answer the question: why the labor regime of Taiwan would toward the direction is not conducive to the Taiwan¡¦s labor? There are a large number of previous articles had analyzed the labor regime of Taiwan. Most of them were focused on how the single factor influenced the labor regime¡¦s establishment or on how to analyze the static institute. We argue that approaches had a similar problem is unable to offer an integral explanation, which is no matter how the institute has changed still maintaining not conducive to the Taiwan¡¦s labor. Therefore we aim to broaden the perspection, by evolving the social surroundings, the interactions amount actors and institutions development, to outline a much more comprehensive picture of the labor regime than previous articles could do. This thesis uses path dependence which conception is the historical institutionalist used to explain how the institute be operated and how it had constrained actors¡¦ behavior. I would display my research method as follow. First, as we could see is path dependence not only brought us a far more exhaustive imagination of the labor regime but told us the importance of the diachronic comparison. Therefore the first step of this study sets the time of observation during 1980 to 2010. In order to emerged and convenient to observe the historical development of labor regime, we chosen every ten years for a period of time, which meant that period of chapter 2 would be set within 1980 to 90, chapter 3 would be set within 1990 to 2000, and chapter 4 would be set within 2000 to 10. Then by comparing these three periods¡¦ similarities, we could easily to extract those similarities and recognize the development path of labor regime. Second, we claimed that labor regime is constituted by three components: one is social surroundings, one is institute, and the other is three actors include nation, capital and labor. This thesis had planned that every chapter should to discuss about how those three components influence each other. After comparing those three periods, the major finding is we could explicitly figure out the path of the labor regime which has towards to flexibilize and commoditize the labor market. Beside this conclusion could explain our research question, we also trying to describe the Taiwan¡¦s labor regime a comprehensive imagination.

Det statliga järnvägsnätet som byggdes i Sverige under 1800-talets senare del har haft stor betydelse för landets tillväxt. Banornas sträckning och byggsätt gav upphov till livliga debatter i riksdagen som slutligen resulterade i det stambanenät som än idag ligger till grund för Sveriges transportinfrastruktur. Vilken spårvidd som skulle användas var en viktig fråga i debatterna, och att Sveriges statsbanor skulle ha en och samma spårvidd var långt ifrån självklart. Denna studie undersöker och analyserar varför de norrländska stambanorna slutligen kom att byggas med samma spårvidd som övriga landets stambanor, och därigenom bli en integrerad del av det statliga järnvägsnätet. Ursprungligen var de norrländska banorna tänkta att byggas med smalare spårvidd, något som skulle innebära att detta nätverk skulle ha isolerats från södra Sveriges. Detta beslut ändras emellertid innan byggandet påbörjats. Genom att kvalitativt studera riksdagsprotokollen från debatterna om järnvägen som byggdes mellan Storvik till Torpshammar och vidare till den norska riksgränsen för att ansluta till en norsk bana kommande från Trondheim, undersöks de argument som framfördes i debatten ur dels en sociopolitisk och dels en ekonomisk synvinkel. Som förklaringsmodell används teorin om spårbundenhet, path dependence, ur två aspekter; institutionell spårbundenhet och ekonomisk spårbundenhet. Uppsatsen finner att båda aspekterna av spårbundenhet hade betydelse för beslutet att bygga stambanan av samma spårvidd som det övriga stambanenätet. Vidare befinns även de politiska relationerna med Norge inverka på beslutet att bygga banan med en bred spårvidd. / The construction of public railways in Sweden during the 19th century has played a vital part in the country’s economic growth. The geographical and technological aspects of the construction spurred extensive debates in the Swedish Parliament and the choice of gauge was a key aspect of these debates. This qualitative case study examines the arguments and outcomes of the 19th century railway debate in the Swedish parliament by applying the path dependence theory on the sociopolitical and economical process seen in the argumentation. The social structures, financial aspects and political union between Sweden and Norway all mattered in the decision to build all of the public railway system using using the same gauge which later became standard. The findings show that path dependence is relevant when explaining gauge selection from both an institutional and economical perspective.

Bibliographic note KULESZA, Izabela A. PATH DEPENDENCE IN AMERICAN PUBLIC EDUCATION . Mater thesis. Charles University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Sociological Studies. Supervisor Prof. PhDr. Arnošt Veselý, Ph.D. Abstract This thesis is concerned with the study of public education in the United States as a path-dependent phenomenon. By reviewing the historical background of the institution of education, several key sequences emerge that are foundational principles. They are: a decentralized system, secular education, universal access, decreasing the achievement gap and global competition. Testing these sequences against school choice theories shows the foundational principles behind traditional public schooling in America are being challenged. The institutional reproduction of this pathway is likely to be interrupted in the utilitarian, functional, power and legitimation explanations of path dependence theory. Keywords public education, school choice, path dependence theory Range of thesis: 66

This dissertation traces Social Security policymaking through most of its post-enactment history in search of ideational processes and schema in path-dependent, path-shaping, and path-breaking modes of institutional persistence and change. The study is grounded in the historical institutionalist literature, specifically the recent debate about the utility of path dependence frameworks in incorporating institutional change, with a particular focus on ideas as stimuli. As a case for tracing path-dependent policy processes, Social Security is overbroad. This breadth requires focusing more narrowly on the interaction between the major coalitions, business/conservative and liberal/labor, on retirement and disability pension (but not health care) issues through the venue of Social Security Advisory Councils. Council is used as a catch-all label for the six-decade succession of (mostly) citizen groups appointed by the secretary of HEW, Senate Finance Committee, and, in one case, the president to deliberate questions of Social Security policy and recommend changes, often enacted into law. A pattern-matching analysis points to a moderate level of path dependence, indicating that the exchange of ideas between coalitions fits the larger consensual pattern of give and take around an existing arrangement. An ideational narrative reveals early negotiations over the emphasis placed on equity versus adequacy, with manifestly ideational exchanges in the 1996 Council's deliberations marking a turning point in the coalitional interaction. A key implication of this research for the application of path dependence frameworks to U.S. political institutions like Social Security is to buttress moderate path dependence arguments, for instance, those advanced by Hacker and Pierson (2002), and to discount the relevance of path-shaping narratives that have been fashioned from European examples (Cox 2004). Yet the research also modifies understanding of path dependence as a self-perpetuating function of increasing returns by identifying an ideational strand that bound both coalitions to social insurance principles. Path-breaking developments apparent in the 1996 Council further implicated new ideas as institutional factors contributing to the loss of historical consensus on Social Security, bolstering the notion of ideational processes as an element of institutional persistence and pressing the argument for further research into ideas as dynamic elements fostering institutional change. / Ph. D.

L’application des concepts de la biologie évolutionnaire (BE) à la problématique de la réalité socioéconomique n’est pas un sujet nouveau dans certaines disciplines socioéconomiques, même si cette inspiration pour la problématique de la géographie socioéconomique, ou plutôt du développement régional, est plus récente et en général se fonde sur les applications réalisées notamment en économie. L’objectif principal de cette thèse est d’identifier de nouveaux concepts de la BE et de tenter de les appliquer aux sujets sélectionnés du développement régional directement, sans le rôle d’intermédiaire d’autres disciplines. L’attention est dans un premier temps prêtée à la recherche du cadre théorique convenable et d’un aperçu des concepts de la BE déjà appliqués aux sciences sociales. La seconde partie présente certains concepts de la BE pour lesquels les applications potentielles (par l’intermédiaire des analogies et des métaphores) aux thèmes choisis du développement régional ont été identifiées. Les concepts appliqués ont été divisés en quatre ensembles thématiques biologiques plus larges – l’adaptation, la coévolution, la sélection et la spéciation. L’application de la spéciation peut être probablement perçue comme la contribution la plus précieuse de la thèse. Elle s’appuie sur l’hypothèse qu’il est possible d’identifier certains traits analogues entre les concepts socioéconomiques path dependence et lock-in et les concepts de la BE concernant la spéciation et d’identifier et de classifier les mécanismes / structures qui fonctionnent comme des barrières socioéconomiques. / Application of the evolutionary biology concepts to socio-economic reality issues is not any new theme, even if this inspiration in socio-economic geography and especially in regional development is more recent and is based, in general, on already realized applications, mainly in economics. The main objective of the PhD thesis is thus an identification of hitherto non-applied evolutionary concepts, or to this time neglected biological aspects of already applied concepts and an attempt of their application to the selected themes of regional development without the intermediary role of other disciplines. In the first place, the attention is paid to the search of an appropriate theoretical approach and of the summary of already applied evolutionary concepts to the social sciences. Second part presents some evolutionary biology concepts where a potential for applications (based on the mediator role of analogies and metaphors) to the selected regional development issues was identified. Individual applied concepts were divided into four more complex thematic units – adaptation, co-evolution, selection and speciation. The application of the last concept could probably be considered as the most valuable contribution of the PhD thesis. It is based on the hypothesis that some analogical traits can be identified among socio-economic concepts of path dependence and lock-in and biological concepts linked with speciation and that the biological concepts can provide the general inspiration for identification of certain types of socio-economic barriers of development of regions and for an attempt to classify them.

La transition énergétique est un projet de société qui impose un modèle énergétique durable marquant le passage d’une économie énergivore largement basée sur les ressources fossiles à une économie plus sobre en énergie et fondée sur un mix garantissant un niveau de performance économique au moins équivalent à celui d’aujourd’hui, l’économie bas-carbone. Alors que dans le passé, les transitions énergétiques étaient des processus intégrés à l’évolution générale des sociétés par les progrès techniques, la transition énergétique d’aujourd’hui est un processus nettement engagé à l’initiative des pouvoirs publics, particulièrement en Europe. Ce changement énergétique implique l’adaptation des territoires à des modes de fonctionnement moins énergivores et de développer des productions d’énergie renouvelable. Cette thèse répond à un double questionnement géographique. Quelles sont, pour l’organisation de l’espace et le fonctionnement des territoires, les implications de ce changement énergétique ? Quels sont les influences et rôles de l’organisation spatiale et des territoires sur le changement énergétique ? La transition énergétique est ici considérée comme un processus fondamentalement géographique qui implique la remise en cause des configurations spatiales actuelles de l’activité économique et sociale, et que l’on examine ainsi comment espace et territoire y répondent, s’y adaptent, la contraignent ou l’accélèrent. Cette thèse saisit plus précisément les enjeux d’une déclinaison régionale de la transition énergétique en révélant les contraintes spatiales et territoriales qui l’encadrent et la déterminent. En s’appuyant sur des travaux d’analyse spatiale et de traitement de données, les dimensions spatiale et territoriale du concept de Path dependence sont développées dans le cadre d’une analyse régionale en Provence-Alpes-Côte d’Azur. Trois domaines de la dimension spatiale de la transition énergétique comme élément relevant de la Path dependence sont abordés : l’influence des structures spatiales et la dépendance au lieu ou material lock-in, la territorialisation et le développement durable inégal ou territorial lock-in, et le poids des structures socio-spatiales héritées ou socio-spatial lock-in. La transition énergétique n’est pas seulement une question économique et politique et l’espace n’est pas seulement un facteur de différenciation spatiale de ce processus. L’espace des sociétés contient aussi des principes d’évolution qui engagent une logique de Path dependence. Toute la complexité de la transition énergétique réside alors dans la complexité spatiale et territoriale qui l’encadre et la détermine, celle de l’organisation des hommes dans l’espace. / The energy transition is a society project that imposes a sustainable energy model marking the shift from an energy economy based largely on fossil fuels to a more efficient economy based on an energy mix ensuring a level of economic performance at least equivalent to the actual situation today, the low-carbon economy. While in the past, energy transitions were integrated processes to the general evolution of societies by technological advances, today's energy transition is a process clearly committed to the initiative of the authorities, especially in Europe. This energy change involves the adaptation of territories to less energy-intensive modes and to develop renewable energy production. This thesis has a dual geographical questioning. Which, for the space organization and functioning of the territories, the implications of this energy change? What are the influences and roles of the spatial organization and territories on the energy change? The energy transition is here seen as a basically geographical process that involves the questioning of current spatial patterns of economic and social activity, and which can thus examine how space and territory meet it, adapt to it, forcing it or accelerating it. This thesis captures more precisely the issues of a regional version of the energy transition by revealing the spatial and territorial constraints that frame and determine. Building on the work of spatial analysis and data processing, spatial and territorial dimensions of the concept of Path dependence are developed as part of a regional analysis in Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur. Three areas of the spatial dimension of the energy transition as an element of Path dependence are studied: the influence of spatial structures and place dependence or material lock-in, territorialization and uneven sustainable development or territorial lock-in, and the weight of inherited socio-spatial structures or socio-spatial lock-in. The energy transition is not only an economic and political issue, and space is not only a spatial differentiation factor in this process. The geographical space also acquired its principles of evolution that involve logic of Path dependence. The complexity of the energy transition is in the spatial and territorial complexity that surrounds and determines the organization of humanity into space.

Utilising a historical perspective and drawing upon path dependence theory, the thesis focuses on the question of a political union of Canada’s three Maritime provinces - Nova Scotia, New Brunswick and Prince Edward Island - between 1960 and 1980. Drawing on archival sources and interviews the thesis examines the factors which increased the potential for a union and resulted in a political union not occurring in this period. The thesis reveals how the intensification of Quebec separatism throughout the 1960s and 1970s threatened to separate the region geographically from the rest of the country. It also shows that the regional expansionist agenda of the federal government undermined provincial jurisdiction as it sought to eliminate economic underdevelopment in the Maritime region. These factors coupled with the dynamics of province-building and the political ambition of key political leaders in the Maritimes created the impetus for a political union in the 1960s. The thesis pays particular attention to the Maritime Union Study (MUS), established in 1968 by the Maritime premiers to investigate the union question. The thesis argues that the MUS was a critical juncture because it presented the premiers with a number of alternative choices for political change, including its main recommendation: the establishment of a political union. However, the thesis reveals that upon the publication of the final report of the MUS in November 1970, the ramifications of the 1970 October Crisis in Quebec and the recent election of new premiers in Nova Scotia and New Brunswick reconfigured the national and regional contexts in which a political union was considered. This reconfiguration led to a new form of institutionalised intergovernmental relations called the Council of Maritime Premiers (CMP). The CMP was a confederal structure which respected the provincially-focused decision-making capacity of the Maritime premiers. The key conclusion of the thesis is that engagement with the question of a political union reflected a balance between political environment and political agency. The national political environment encouraged the consideration of a political union because it revealed a vulnerability to external occurrences which were beyond the control of the three provinces and connected with an internal logic for change. A political union was seen as a way for the region to develop the capacity to become economically self-sufficient and in turn neutralise the implications of unexpected externalities. However, alternative opportunities for political action were pursued when the national political environment became reconfigured and new political leaders were elected. This dynamic explains why, despite a critical juncture, a union did not happen. As such, the thesis shows that the current understanding of change to path dependent settings is confirmed. Established trajectories will be more inclined towards persistence than change. The key contribution of the thesis to path dependence theory is that change is not the default outcome of a critical juncture. If change is viable, considered but not ultimately selected it is no less a critical juncture than those which produce enduring change. On a broader level, the thesis gives an indication as to the difficulty of political amalgamations between constitutionally protected entities within established federal states.

This paper analyses the process of wealth accumulation with regard to the path dependence theory. Based on the theoretical foundations of Robert King Merton, Vilfredo Pareto and Pierre Bourdieu, mechanisms of wealth accumulation are analyzed. These mechanisms, which are understood as direct and indirect network effects, are formalized using the statistical computing software R. A base model without any mechanisms of wealth accumulation is developed, which makes it possible to include the analyzed mechanisms step by step and observe their effects on the process of wealth accumulation and social inequality. Piketty's findings from his work Capital in the 21st Century are included in the formalized models of wealth accumulation, in particular the relationship between the rate of return on capital and the growth rate of the economy. (author's abstract)