Many billions of dollars each year are spent in pursuit of economic and social development goals. The field of program evaluation aims to measure the efficacy of these programs and allocate funds to achieve optimal results. However, current research on program design and evaluation tends to focus on determining causality through complex statistical methods, neglecting intermediate measures of data, such as network metrics. Similarly, research in computational social science has focused on generating hypotheses and validating theory rather than economic development applications. This thesis develops a novel technique for using computational social science to design and evaluate social and economic programs. A framework for program design and evaluation using network metrics is presented, along with two case studies that illustrate the use of this technique. In the first, we consider Start-Up Chile, an economic development program whose goal is to foster networks between Chileans and international entrepreneurs, using network metrics to evaluate its ability to facilitate connection between Chilean and non- Chilean entrepreneurs. Second, an agent-based model for designing entrepreneurial incubators is developed, with novel conclusions for more efficient design of economic development programs.

Cette thèse se concentre sur la mesure des dissemblances dans la distribution des attributs économiques, et sur les implications pour l'inégalité des chances. L'égalité des chances a gagné en popularité pour définir l'objectif de la distribution d'une vaste gamme de résultats économiques entre les groupes sociaux. Cette thèse est motivée par le fait que l'évaluation des politiques publiques fondée sur l'égalité des chances s'appuie toujours sur des comparaisons de dissemblance entre des distributions conditionnelles, et nous proposons des critères empiriques pour vérifier ces comparaisons. Dans le premier chapitre, nous caractérisons axiomatiquement le pre-ordre de dissemblance permettant de classer les distributions conditionnelles au groupe d'origine, que sont définies sur des classes de résultats discrètes. Lorsque les classes sont permutables, nous démontrons que la dissemblance est rationalisée par un ordre de majorisation de matrices et mis en œuvre en vérifiant l'inclusion des zonotopes . Lorsque les classes sont ordonnées nous fondons le jugement de dissemblance sur un nombre fini de comparaisons au sein de la majorisation au sens de Lorenz entre les proportions des groupes, vérifiées à des étapes différentes de cumulation de la population agrégée. Dans le deuxième chapitre, on examine la pertinence du pre-ordre de dissemblance pour étudier la ségrégation au niveau individuel. On obtient une caractérisation complète d'une famille bien définie d'indicateurs de ségrégation et nous étudions l'un d'eux, l'indice d'exposition de Gini, en utilisant des données italiennes. Le dernier chapitre présente un critère d'égalisation des chances. L'égalité des chances est atteinte lorsqu'il n'y a pas de consensus, selon une classe de préférences donnée, sur l'identité du groupe défavorisé. Nous utilisons les changements de (manque de) consensus sur l'existence et l'étendue du désavantage pour caractériser le critère d'égalisation des chances. Les restrictions nécessaires, autant que des procédures possibles d'agrégations, sont également discutées. Nous démontrons que ce critère est identifié selon la classe de préférences représentées par les fonctions d'utilité dépendantes du rang et on obtient des résultats innovants d'inférence sur la dominance stochastique inverse qui nous permettent de tester ce critère. Deux applications sur des données françaises illustrent l'impact en termes d'égalisation de chances des politiques éducatives qui ont lieu tôt dans la vie des étudiants. / This thesis focuses on the measurement of dissimilarity in the distribution of relevant economic attributes and inequality of opportunity. Equality of opportunity has gained popularity for defining the relevant equalitarian objective for the distribution of a broad range of social and economic outcomes among social groups. I show that equality of opportunity concerns in policy evaluation always rely on dissimilarity comparisons between conditional distributions, and I provide empirically testable criteria to implement these comparisons. In the first chapter, I characterize axiomatically the dissimilarity partial order for discrete conditional distributions of groups across outcome classes. I prove that, when classes are permutable, dissimilarity is rationalized by matrix majorization and implemented by checking zonotopes inclusion, while when classes are ordered the dissimilarity criterion resorts on a finite number of Lorenz majorization comparisons among groups' proportions, performed at different cumulation stages of the overall population. In the second chapter, I discuss the relevance of the dissimilarity partial order for the study of segregation at individual level. I fully characterize a well defined family of segregation indicators and I study one of them, the Gini exposure index, by using Italian data. The final chapter presents the equalization of opportunity criterion for outcome achievements. The guiding principle is that equality of opportunities is reached if there is no consensus, for a given class of preferences, in determining the disadvantaged group out of pairwise comparisons. I use the changes in (lack of) consensus on the existence and on the extent of the disadvantage to characterize the equalization of opportunity criterion. Meaningful restrictions and possible aggregation procedure are also discussed. I motivate that this criterion is identified within the rank dependent utility model, and I provide innovative inference results for inverse stochastic dominance to test it. Two applications on French data illustrate the equalizing impact of educational policies taking place early in students life.

Cette thèse étudie la formation des familles, leur organisation et les systèmes d’éducation. Les deux premiers chapitres traitent du choix du conjoint et du partage des ressources au sein du couple. Je modélise tout d’abord comment les individus se rencontrent et décident de se mettre en couple ou non en fonction de leur niveau d’éducation, de leur revenu et leur apparence physique. J’utilise des données américaines où j’observe qui est marié avec qui et pour combien de temps, ce qui me permet d’identifier les préférences des individus. Le deuxième chapitre analyse les effets du mariage sur certaines tendances économiques comme les inégalités de revenu ou les offres de travail. Dans ce chapitre, les personnes en couple se partagent leur revenu et choisissent ensemble la meilleure organisation pour travailler et accomplir les taches domestiques et élever les enfants. Avec des données britanniques, j’identifie les transferts de revenu qui existent entre les hommes et les femmes et je montre que ces transferts augmentent le travail des hommes mariés et diminuent celui des femmes mariées. Les deux derniers chapitres étudient l’efficacité du collège français et notamment la pratique du redoublement. Le troisième chapitre mobilise des méthodes de décomposition pour évaluer dans quelle mesure la baisse des scores des élèves français aux tests PISA peut être attribuée à des changements dans les caractéristiques des élèves ou à des changements dans les rendements de l’éducation. Enfin, le dernier chapitre se concentre particulièrement sur le redoublement et utilise des données de panel sur les collégiens français pour évaluer l’impact du redoublement sur leurs résultats. / This dissertation deals with family formation, family organization and education systems. The first two chapters study how people choose their partners and how they share their income. First, I focus on couple formation and I model how people meet and decide to match or not. People can choose their partner according to their education level, their wage and their physical attractiveness. Using American data, I observe who matches with whom and who stays single and for how long to recover the preferences of individuals in terms of mating. The second chapter attempts to understand how the efficiency and the sorting of the marriage market could impact economic outcomes such as income inequalities or labor supplies. In this chapter, when people marry, they share their income and decide how much each of them will work on the market and at home to raise children or do the housework. Using British data, I recover the amount of monetary transfers which exist between household members and show that these transfers make married women work less on the market and married men work more. The last two chapters of this dissertation focus on the French education system and on the impact of grade retention policies. In the third chapter I use decomposition methods to assess to which extent the decrease in French student’s score at PISA tests can be attributed to the changes in student’s characteristics or to the changes in school returns. Finally, in the last chapter, I use an estimation strategy to get rid of this selection effect and we use a panel data on French High School students to evaluate the impact of grade retention on their scores.

Submitted by Erivelto Ricardo de Sá null (saerivel@hotmail.com) on 2016-05-09T11:19:37Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Politicas Públicas de Educacao Profissional Uma analise do Pronatec com alunos egressos da escola SENAI Marcio Bagueira Leal_FINAL.pdf: 1039193 bytes, checksum: 4e8f6162dc8c56033e5010baa8676396 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Juliano Benedito Ferreira (julianoferreira@reitoria.unesp.br) on 2016-05-10T12:44:35Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 sa_er_me_franca.pdf: 1039193 bytes, checksum: 4e8f6162dc8c56033e5010baa8676396 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2016-05-10T12:44:35Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 sa_er_me_franca.pdf: 1039193 bytes, checksum: 4e8f6162dc8c56033e5010baa8676396 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2016-03-10 / Não recebi financiamento / A presente dissertação resulta de uma pesquisa multidisciplinar de ordem qualitativa que tem como objeto de estudo o Programa Nacional de Acesso ao Ensino Técnico e Emprego (Pronatec), tendo como recorte principal, os alunos concluintes de cursos profissionalizantes de formação inicial e continuada no âmbito do Bolsa Formação da Escola SENAI “Márcio Bagueira Leal”, da cidade de Franca. Esse estudo tem por objetivo avaliar a eficácia do programa na conquista de um emprego qualificado e também na geração e incremento da renda. Para os alunos qualificados foram realizadas entrevistas semiestruturadas como forma de elucidar questões pertinentes à efetividade do programa, e aplicação de questionários fechados em plataforma eletrônica para um levantamento mais amplo e significativo, tendo em vista uma maior amostragem dos participantes. Com o intuito de trazer para a discussão mais elementos, tornando-a mais relevante para o campo de estudo, foram também aplicados a empresas do setor industrial de Franca, questionários fechados em formato eletrônico, com vistas a coletar dados referentes à absorção de mão de obra recém-qualificada, e ainda, o conhecimento das empresas sobre o programa. Com base nos dados colhidos, foram constatados dois aspectos relevantes: primeiro, que o programa apresenta baixa eficácia, considerando o índice de empregabilidade na área da qualificação cursada pelos beneficiários, e a inexistência de uma articulação entre o governo e empresários, como forma de inserir a mão de obra qualificada pelo referido programa, no mercado de trabalho. Sendo assim, como produto dessa investigação foi proposta a criação de um cadastro on-line de trabalhadores qualificados pelo Pronatec, denominado “Banco de Talentos”, como forma de atender a demanda das empresas por potenciais candidatos ao emprego. / This work results from some multidisciplinary qualitative research that has as the subject of study the National Program for Access to Technical Education and Employment (Pronatec), focusing on the senior students of professional vocational courses of initial and continuous training that are part of the scholarship training of SENAI "Márcio Bagueira Leal" in the city of Franca. This study aims to evaluate the effectiveness of the program in achieving a qualified employment and also in the generation and increased income. For the qualified students were conducted semi-structured interviews to elucidate questions regarding the program effectiveness, and the application of closed questionnaires in an electronic platform for a wider and more meaningful survey in view of larger sample of participants. In order to bring more elements to the discussion making it more relevant to the field of study, the closed questionnaires, in an electronic format, were also applied to industrial companies to collect data related to the absorption of newly qualified labor and also to make the companies familiar with the program. Based on the collected data, it was found two relevant aspects. First, the program has low effectiveness, considering the employment index in the vocational area that the students who got the scholarship studied. Second, the lack of interaction between the government and the businessmen as a way to insert the skilled workers, through the program, in the labor market. Thus, this research proposed the creation of an online register of skilled workers by qualified by Pronatec, called Talent Bank, in order to meet the demand of companies for potential job candidates.

O presente trabalho trata da avaliação de medidas voltadas à distribuição urbana de cargas considerando ser essa uma etapa fundamental do processo de tomada de decisão, pois permite a análise dos possíveis resultados acerca dos objetivos pretendidos, os quais geralmente estão relacionados à diminuição dos congestionamentos de veículos e das emissões de gases poluentes. Considerando que grande parte dos problemas decorrentes da distribuição urbana ocorrem localmente, no nível desagregado, propõe-se um procedimento que dê subsídios ao desenvolvimento de uma metodologia para a avaliação de medidas através da microssimulação de tráfego. Isso porque a microssimulação permite um alto nível de detalhe na modelagem e na observação do comportamento dos veículos, o que é essencial para a quantificação dos possíveis impactos locais gerados pelos veículos de carga. A integração entre as coletas de dados e os modelos que compõem o procedimento forneceu os dados necessários à representação dos movimentos dos veículos de carga no VISSIM, onde foram simulados três diferentes cenários, cada um representando alterações impostas por diferentes medidas em avaliação. A aplicação do procedimento proposto, a modelagem no VISSIM e os resultados da microssimulação permitiram a ponderação sobre o uso dessa técnica para a avaliação de medidas voltadas à distribuição urbana de cargas, considerando suas vantagens e limitações. / The present research deals with the evaluation of urban freight policies, considering this is fundamental for the decision making process of a policy implementation. Evaluation allows an analysis of the possible policy effects compared to its intended objectives, which are generally related to reductions in traffic congestion and pollutant emissions. Whereas most of the problems caused by urban distribution occur locally, in the disaggregated level, we propose a procedure that supports the development of a methodology for evaluating freight policies through traffic microsimulation. That\'s because this technique allows a high level of detail in modeling and observation of vehicles\' behavior, which is essential for quantifying the likely local impacts generated by freight vehicles. The procedure is based on a set of integrated data collections and models, which provided the data for representing freight vehicles movement in VISSIM, were three different scenarios, each one representing changes imposed by different freight policies, were simulated. The application of the proposed procedure, the VISSIM\'s modeling process and the microsimulation results allowed the weighing for the use of this technique in evaluating urban freight policies, considering its advantages and limitations.

nÃo hà / A pesquisa teve como objetivo avaliar o Programa de ErradicaÃÃo do Trabalho Infantil - PETI de MossorÃ-RN em termos de modificaÃÃo das condiÃÃes de vida das famÃlias que tÃm crianÃas e adolescentes assistidos. Foi realizada pesquisa documental e de campo, tendo esta Ãltima ocorrido no perÃodo de marÃo a agosto de 2008. Foi aplicado um formulÃrio em dois momentos distintos e realizadas entrevistas de aprofundamento com os responsÃveis por crianÃas e adolescentes assistidos pelo programa hà quatro anos ou mais. Os dados quantitativos foram submetidos a tratamento descritivo, usando freqÃÃncia absoluta e relativa, tabelas simples, cruzamentos, indicadores de referÃncia e testes especÃficos. Os dados qualitativos foram abordados pelo mÃtodo da anÃlise do discurso e analisados com base nos marcos regulatÃrios vigentes e em autores que discutem e teorizam o trabalho infantil e suas interfaces. Entre as 30 famÃlias que compuseram a primeira amostra, a maioria dos identificados como responsÃveis pelas crianÃas e adolescentes sÃo mulheres relativamente jovens que moram com os filhos e respectivos cÃnjuges e tÃm baixa escolaridade. Da entrada no PETI atà a realizaÃÃo da pesquisa decresceu o nÃvel de emprego nas famÃlias e o percentual de filhos que estudavam, mas em 33,4% das famÃlias havia crianÃas ou adolescentes que ainda trabalhavam. Aumentou a renda mensal e a despesa com alimentaÃÃo, aluguel, gÃs de cozinha, energia elÃtrica e prestaÃÃo da casa prÃpria; mais famÃlias tornaram-se proprietÃrias da casa, diminuiu o nÃmero das que pagavam aluguel ou moravam em casa cedida, aumentou o nÃmero de casas de alvenaria e o nÃmero de cÃmodos; aumentou o nÃmero de eletrodomÃsticos como refrigeradores, liquidificadores, televisores, aparelhos de som, telefones, mÃquina de costura, bicicleta e rÃdios. A maioria dos responsÃveis entrevistados trabalhou quando crianÃa, vÃm de famÃlias numerosas, de origem rural e migrantes e tÃm apreÃo a valores como honestidade e retidÃo. Predominaram lembranÃas agradÃveis sobre as brincadeiras e uniÃo entre irmÃos, mas houve ambivalÃncia em relaÃÃo a terem trabalhado na infÃncia e ao modo autoritÃrio como foram educados. Percebem como mais difÃcil a tarefa de educar filhos hoje comparativamente a quando eram crianÃas e consideram positivo o fato de estarem integrados ao programa avaliado, embora tenham sido constatadas algumas incoerÃncias em relaÃÃo a isto. Os planos para o futuro sÃo modestos e quase se resumem aos filhos estudarem e terem um trabalho quando adultos. O trabalho precoce atravessou o tempo, fazendo-se presente em trÃs geraÃÃes. ConcluÃmos que melhoraram as condiÃÃes de vida, com mudanÃas positivas no perfil das famÃlias apÃs serem integradas ao PETI e que ainda à grave seu estado de pobreza. IncoerÃncias e inconsistÃncias encontradas indicam que os gestores do programa no municÃpio necessitam estar mais atentos e desenvolver medidas concretas para superaÃÃo do trabalho infantil ainda presente nas famÃlias estudadas e para avanÃar no Ãmbito da sociabilidade. AlÃm do mais, em momento posterior, faz-se importante aprofundar a avaliaÃÃo do programa em relaÃÃo a alguns aspectos. / This research aims to evaluate the Elimination of Child Labor Program â PETI in MossorÃ-RN related to life style changes in families that have kids and teenagers trated by the program. Documentary and fields researches were made, the last one happened between march and August 2009. A questionary was given to the people responsible to the children and teenagers, who have been treated by the program for four years or longer, in two different steps. The quantitative information was submitted to a descriptive treatment, using absolut and relative frequency, simple tables, crossings, reference indicators andspecific tests. The quantitavie information was privided by the analisys of speech method and analysed taken into account the rules of the authors who discuss and theorize childlabor and its different sides. From all the 30 families that were interviewed in the first sample, most of the people that are responsible for the children and teenagers are young women, that live with their kids and husband, and have low education. Since tha registration in the PETI program until the date that this research was made, the percentage of employment and kids in school. Also in 33,4% of the families there were kids or teenagers working. The monthly income and expenditure with food, rent, kitchen gas, eletric power and house loan; more families purchased their own houses , less ones had to pay rent or borrowed houses,increased the numbers of masonry houses and their rooms; the number of appliances such as refrigerators, blenders, television sets, stereo systems, telephones, sewing machines,bicycles and radios. Most of the responsible for the children also worked when they were younger,come from large families, from the rural zone and appreciate things like honesty and integrity. They had nice memories about toys and plays between siblings, though there was an ambivalence related to their working during their childhood and about the bossy way that they were raised. They are aware that nowadays is more difficult to raise children comparing to when they were younger and they find positive the fact that they are in the program, even though we found a few misconception about that. Plans for the future are simple and care to having their kids studying and having a good job when they get older. The early employment lasted for three generation.We may conclude that families improved their life styles,with positive changes in the families profiles after applying to the PETI program and also that poverty is still strong. The inconsistencies found indicate the program managers in town need to look carefully and develop projects to help the families that still go through child labor and also to have those families more sociable.Besides all that, later on, it is important to go deeper in the evaluation of the program when related to some aspects.

Este estudo tem por objetivo avaliar o Programa Nacional de SeguranÃa PÃblica com Cidadania (PRONASCI), em seu eixo âprevenÃÃo à violÃnciaâ com o envolvimento da comunidade juvenil constante do Projeto ProteÃÃo de Jovens em TerritÃrio VulnerÃvel â PROTEJO. O PRONASCI/Protejo foi avaliado a partir do estudo de caso do TerritÃrio do Grande Bom Jardim, um conjunto de bairros situado na periferia da cidade de Fortaleza, durante o perÃodo 2009/2010. Buscou-se um processo avaliativo em trÃs partes: concepÃÃo, implementaÃÃo e de resultados. Esta avaliaÃÃo se dà à luz do entendimento da populaÃÃoalvo e tÃcnicos envolvidos sobre o PRONASCI/Protejo, bem como da anÃlise crÃtica dos problemas organizacionais e processuais e das metas projetadas. Dentre os resultados relevantes desta avaliaÃÃo à possÃvel destacar as idÃias dos jovens para o enfrentamento à violÃncia, que podem contribuir para a melhoria no planejamento e execuÃÃo de polÃticas pÃblicas que envolvam a participaÃÃo juvenil como estratÃgia de prevenÃÃo e controle da violÃnci / This study aims to test the program called Programa Nacional de SeguranÃa PÃblica com Cidadania (PRONASCI) in its axis âpreventing the violenceâ with the constant youthful community involvement with the project named Projeto ProteÃÃo de Jovens em TerritÃrio VulnerÃvel do Grande Bom Jardim, a neighborhood complex placed far from Fortaleza‟s downtown during the period between 2009/2010. It was sought an evaluation process in three parts: conception, implementation and results. This evaluation occurs from the understanding of the target population and technicians involved in PRONASCI / Protejo, and also from the critic analysis of the organizational and procedure problems and the projected goals. Among the relevant results of this evaluation it is possible to point the young people‟s ideas to fight the violence which can contribute to the best planning and performance of public politics that involves the youthful participation as an strategy to prevent and to control the violence.

O Estado brasileiro, seguindo as tendências mundiais, vem desenvolvendo e implementando, de forma cada vez mais sistematizada, aparatos institucionais e políticas públicas de estímulo à inovação. Entretanto, tais políticas apresentam um longo histórico de falhas e de descontinuidades nas estratégias do governo e nos planos que incentivam o desenvolvimento da ciência, tecnologia e inovação no país. Tendo em vista esse contexto, o presente trabalho busca analisar em detalhes, por meio de um estudo de casos, como o governo formula e implementa seus programas de estímulo a inovação. Para tanto, foram escolhidos dois programas para serem comparados como estratégias de investigação, distantes no tempo e nos alicerces políticos e institucionais em que foram concebidos. O primeiro deles foi uma ação da década de oitenta, intitulada Programa Inovação Tecnológica (PIT), que objetivava a implantação de Núcleos de Inovação Tecnológica em universidades e institutos de pesquisas. O segundo e mais recente é o Programa Primeira Empresa Inovadora (PRIME), que visa o apoio financeiro, com recursos não reembolsáveis para empresas nascentes inovadoras. Verificou-se que houve avanços significativos na forma como são concebidos e implementados, todavia, alguns aspectos críticos das heranças culturais e políticas brasileiras continuam ameaçando a continuidade desse tipo de ação, com destaque para a excessiva politização dos altos escalões das entidades responsáveis por executar essas ações e a intensa corporatização dos atores centrais nos movimentos de tentativas de estímulo a inovação no Brasil. / The Brazilian State, following the worldwide trends, has been developing and implementing, in increasingly systemized way, public policies to stimulate innovation. However, such policies present a long description of imperfections and discontinuities in the government strategies, and plans that stimulate the development of science, technology and innovation in the country. In this context, this work aims to analyze at great length, through a study of cases, the way that the government formulates and implements its programs to stimulate innovation. Therefore, two programs had been chosen to be comparing as inquiry strategies, distant in time as well as in the institutional and politicians foundations where they had been conceived. The first one was an action of the eighties, entitled Programa Inovação Tecnológica (PIT), which aimed to implement the Core of Technological Innovation in universities and research institutes. The second and most recent is the Programa Primeira Empresa Inovadora (PRIME), which aims to support innovative emerging companies with non-refundable grant. It was verified that they had significant advances in the way that they are conceived and implemented, however some critical aspects of the cultural inheritances and Brazilian policies keep threatening the continuity of those kind of action, with prominence for the excessive politicalization of the high steps of the responsible entities for executing those actions and the intense corporatization of the central actors in the movements that attempts to stimulate innovation in Brazil.

A background of serious disparities in past welfare policies, legislation and programmes, necessitated the need for a far-reaching new social welfare policy in South Africa. The adoption of the White Paper for Social Welfare by Parliament in February 1997, set the path for the new social developmental approach to social welfare, dealing with key substantive issues in addressing the restructuring of social welfare services, programmes and social security. The Eastern Cape Province is one of the poorer provinces in South Africa. Negative radio and print media reports on social welfare in the province in the past three years has made it clear that serious problems and disparities face the provincial department. Several of these media reports highlighted issues relating to poor service delivery and unacceptable conditions of underdevelopment and poverty still prevailing in the province. The Eastern Cape Welfare Department has been plagued by fraud and corruption, and in a report of the Eastern Cape legislature’s standing committee on welfare in 2001, it was found that fraudulent activities, corruption and misconduct by government officials are still prevalent in the welfare department. The objective of this research was to assess whether the Eastern Cape Department of Social Development (Welfare) is implementing this new social developmental approach to social welfare, as set out in the 1997 White Paper for Social Welfare.

Cette thèse relève de l’économie urbaine, de l’économie de l’environnement et de l’évaluation des politiques publiques. La première partie (chapitres 1 et 2) est une évaluation empirique de l’impact de la perception du risque industriel sur le marché du logement. Plus précisément, ces chapitres exploitent des méthodes quantitatives initialement élaborées pour l’évaluation des politiques publiques pour mesurer la réaction des marchés immobiliers locaux à deux changements dans la perception des risques industriels. Le chapitre 1 analyse ainsi les conséquences de l’accident d’AZF (Toulouse, 2001), et le chapitre 2 celles de la loi Bachelot (votée en 2003). Ces deux chapitres montrent que l’information additionnelle sur les risques industriels qui a découlé de ces deux événements s’est traduite par une baisse significative des prix immobiliers, de l’ordre de 2 % en moyenne. Cet effet prix suggère que les marchés à risque se trouvaient en situation d’information imparfaite avant ces événements. En outre, ces chocs ont modifié la composition socio-démographique des voisinages exposés au risque industriel. Cette première partie illustre des situations dans lesquelles il n'est pas possible de concevoir des expérimentations contrôlées. Il est donc important d'étudier les propriétés des estimateurs d’appariement sur score de propension, qui sont souvent considérés comme une alternative raisonnable. C'est l'objet de la seconde partie (chapitres 3 et 4) de cette thèse. Le chapitre 3 compare ainsi les performances de deux procédures d'estimation dans le cadre d’un programme d’accompagnement au retour à l’emploi. La première repose sur une expérimentation contrôlée, et la seconde sur un appariement sur score de propension. Dans ce cas, les méthodes d’appariement ne parviennent pas à reproduire les estimations issues de l’expérimentation. Le chapitre 4 propose donc une alternative aux méthodes classiques d’appariement, l'estimateur BEAST, et en illustre les propriétés à partir de simulations et d’études de cas. / This thesis falls within the scope of urban economics, environmental economics and public policy evaluation. The first part (chapters 1 and 2) is an empirical evaluation of the impact of industrial risk perception on the housing market. More specifically, these chapters rely on quantitative methods originally designed for public policy evaluation to measure the reaction of local housing markets to two changes in industrial risk perception. Chapter 1 analyzes the consequences of the AZF accident (Toulouse, 2001), and chapter 2 the consequences of the Bachelot regulation (passed in 2003). Both chapters show that additional information on industrial risk translated into a significant housing price decrease of about 2% on average. This price effect is consistent with an initial imperfect information setting. In addition, there is some evidence of neighborhood composition changes following these changes. This first part builds on typical examples in which randomized experiments cannot be designed, which lead to questioning the properties of estimators based on propensity score estimation. This is the aim of the second part (chapters 3 and 4) of the thesis. Chapter 3 compares the performances of experimental and non-experimental estimators using the example of a job-search assistance programme. It shows that, in this particular case, matching methods cannot accurately replicate the experimental results. Chapter 4 proposes the BEAST estimator as an alternative to typical propensity score matching, and illustrates its properties on simulations and case studies.