Thèse (M.A.)--Université Laval, 2007. / Bibliogr.: f. [85]-90. Publié aussi en version électronique dans la Collection Mémoires et thèses électroniques.

A dissertação Estudo comparado entre os Programas de Transferência Condicionada de Renda no Brasil e no México tem como objetivo aprofundar o estudo dos dois principais programas desse tipo nos países citados a fim de identificar suas virtudes e limitações. Considerando que na América Latina os desafios para redução da pobreza e da desigualdade de renda continuam sendo enormes, com necessidade de ampla discussão entre sociedade civil e governos para superação dessas barreiras, os estudos desses programas na região têm o potencial de aprofundar o debate para aprimorá-los. As estimativas mais recentes sobre os níveis de pobreza e indigência para os países da América Latina continuam sendo alarmantes, apesar de haver constatações de melhoras significativas nos últimos anos. Dados publicados pela Comissão Econômica para a América Latina e o Caribe da ONU (CEPAL) referentes a 2007 apontam que 184 milhões de pessoas da região, o que corresponde 34,1% da população, estão em situação de pobreza. Desde o final da década dos noventa, governos de países latino-americanos têm implantado Programas de Transferência Condicionada de Renda focados nas famílias pobres, com a justificativa de aliviar a pobreza no curto prazo por meio das transferências de renda e de combater a sua transmissão entre as gerações por meio de exigência de contrapartidas. Esta dissertação tem como foco principal o Programa Bolsa Família no Brasil e o PROGRESA/Oportunidades no México, os quais são os dois maiores programas desse tipo no mundo, buscando avaliar seus efeitos positivos e também suas limitações. / The dissertation A Comparative Study of the Conditioned Income Transfer Programs in Brazil and Mexico aims to carry out a profound study of the two main income transfer programs in the mentioned countries in order to identify its benefits and limitations. Considering that in Latin America the challenges to reduce poverty and inequality are still enormous, presenting the necessity of an ample discussion between the civil society and governments to overcome them, the study of such regional programs have the potential to deepen the debate in order to improve such programs. The most recent estimates on the levels of poverty and indigence in Latin America are still very alarming, although there has been some significant improvement in the past years. Data from 2007 published by CEPAL (United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean) point that 184 million people in the region are dwelling within poverty levels. Since the end of the 1990s, the Latin American governments have been implementing Conditioned Income Transfer Programs focused on poor families, in order to alleviate poverty in the short term through income transfers and fight against its dissemination throughout generations by demanding the fulfillment of certain conditions. This dissertation has focused on the Bolsa Família Program in Brazil and PROGRESA/Oportunidades in Mexico, which are the two most significant programs of such kind in the world, aiming to evaluate their positive effects as well as their limitations.

A dissertação Estudo comparado entre os Programas de Transferência Condicionada de Renda no Brasil e no México tem como objetivo aprofundar o estudo dos dois principais programas desse tipo nos países citados a fim de identificar suas virtudes e limitações. Considerando que na América Latina os desafios para redução da pobreza e da desigualdade de renda continuam sendo enormes, com necessidade de ampla discussão entre sociedade civil e governos para superação dessas barreiras, os estudos desses programas na região têm o potencial de aprofundar o debate para aprimorá-los. As estimativas mais recentes sobre os níveis de pobreza e indigência para os países da América Latina continuam sendo alarmantes, apesar de haver constatações de melhoras significativas nos últimos anos. Dados publicados pela Comissão Econômica para a América Latina e o Caribe da ONU (CEPAL) referentes a 2007 apontam que 184 milhões de pessoas da região, o que corresponde 34,1% da população, estão em situação de pobreza. Desde o final da década dos noventa, governos de países latino-americanos têm implantado Programas de Transferência Condicionada de Renda focados nas famílias pobres, com a justificativa de aliviar a pobreza no curto prazo por meio das transferências de renda e de combater a sua transmissão entre as gerações por meio de exigência de contrapartidas. Esta dissertação tem como foco principal o Programa Bolsa Família no Brasil e o PROGRESA/Oportunidades no México, os quais são os dois maiores programas desse tipo no mundo, buscando avaliar seus efeitos positivos e também suas limitações. / The dissertation A Comparative Study of the Conditioned Income Transfer Programs in Brazil and Mexico aims to carry out a profound study of the two main income transfer programs in the mentioned countries in order to identify its benefits and limitations. Considering that in Latin America the challenges to reduce poverty and inequality are still enormous, presenting the necessity of an ample discussion between the civil society and governments to overcome them, the study of such regional programs have the potential to deepen the debate in order to improve such programs. The most recent estimates on the levels of poverty and indigence in Latin America are still very alarming, although there has been some significant improvement in the past years. Data from 2007 published by CEPAL (United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean) point that 184 million people in the region are dwelling within poverty levels. Since the end of the 1990s, the Latin American governments have been implementing Conditioned Income Transfer Programs focused on poor families, in order to alleviate poverty in the short term through income transfers and fight against its dissemination throughout generations by demanding the fulfillment of certain conditions. This dissertation has focused on the Bolsa Família Program in Brazil and PROGRESA/Oportunidades in Mexico, which are the two most significant programs of such kind in the world, aiming to evaluate their positive effects as well as their limitations.

The aim of this paper is to analyze the impact of a conditional cash transfer program, Progresa, on school attendance in Mexican rural and urban areas. Within recent years, conditional cash transfer programs have become one of the most accepted remedies for poverty alleviation in many countries. Progresa was developed as an economic experi-ment, with randomized selection process, treatment groups and control croups. For this reason, the impact of Progresa is ideal for economic analysis. There are clear evidence of disparities between urban and rural school attendance rates in Mexico, hence the pro-gram’s effect on school attendance rates have been studied in the two regions. There are several reasons why one would expect different outcomes of the program on school at-tendance in rural and urban areas. Expected returns to education and the opportunity cost of investment in schooling in different regions are thought to affect the household’s optimization problem differently. The impact of Progresa on school attendance rates is estimated by a logit regression model analyzing household data within the household optimization framework. Mainly, Progresa has a positive impact on children’s school at-tendance. However, it may be concluded that Progresa has no significant effect for older children in rural areas. This result is assumed to be explained by the different conditions poor families face in different regions. If rural households’ optimization problem indeed looks different; this might suggest that the design of conditional cash transfer programs such as Progresa is crucially important depending on the region of implementation. / Syftet med denna uppsats är att analysera det villkora välfärdsprogrammet Progresa och dess effekt på skolnärvaro i mexikanska rurala och urbana områden. Under senare år har villkora välfärdsprogram kommit att vara en av de mest accepterade formerna av bistånd för att minska fattigdom i de flesta länder. Progresa utvecklades utifrån ett ekonomiskt experiment, med en slumpmässig urvalsprocess samt en experiment- och kontrollgrupp. Med anledning av detta är Progresa ett utmärkt program att studera för ekonomisk analys. Skolnärvaron i mexikanska rurala och urbana områden varierar stort och av denna anledning har effekten av Progresa studerats i de båda regionerna. Det finns många anledningar till varför vi bör förvänta oss avvikande utfall. En förklaring kan vara att utbildningens förväntade avkastning och alternativkostnad påverkar hushållens optimeringsproblem olika. Effekten av Progresa på skolnärvaro är beräknad med en logit regressionsmodell där hushållsdata analyseras inom ramen för hushållets optimeringsproblem. Huvudsakligen har Progresa en positiv effekt på barns skolnärvaro. Dock, och vad som bör noteras, är det faktum att Progresa inte har en signifikant påverkan på äldre rurala barns skolnärvaro. Detta resultat antas förklaras av fattiga familjers olika förutsättningar i rurala och urbana områden. I det fall rurala familjers optimeringsproblem skiljer sig från urbana familjers optimeringsproblem, torde detta innebära att strukturen av ett villkorligt biståndsprogram, så som Progresa, är av största vikt och bör anpassas ändamålsenligt.

<p>The aim of this paper is to analyze the impact of a conditional cash transfer program, Progresa, on school attendance in Mexican rural and urban areas. Within recent years, conditional cash transfer programs have become one of the most accepted remedies for poverty alleviation in many countries. Progresa was developed as an economic experi-ment, with randomized selection process, treatment groups and control croups. For this reason, the impact of Progresa is ideal for economic analysis. There are clear evidence of disparities between urban and rural school attendance rates in Mexico, hence the pro-gram’s effect on school attendance rates have been studied in the two regions. There are several reasons why one would expect different outcomes of the program on school at-tendance in rural and urban areas. Expected returns to education and the opportunity cost of investment in schooling in different regions are thought to affect the household’s optimization problem differently. The impact of Progresa on school attendance rates is estimated by a logit regression model analyzing household data within the household optimization framework. Mainly, Progresa has a positive impact on children’s school at-tendance. However, it may be concluded that Progresa has no significant effect for older children in rural areas. This result is assumed to be explained by the different conditions poor families face in different regions. If rural households’ optimization problem indeed looks different; this might suggest that the design of conditional cash transfer programs such as Progresa is crucially important depending on the region of implementation.</p> / <p>Syftet med denna uppsats är att analysera det villkora välfärdsprogrammet Progresa och dess effekt på skolnärvaro i mexikanska rurala och urbana områden. Under senare år har villkora välfärdsprogram kommit att vara en av de mest accepterade formerna av bistånd för att minska fattigdom i de flesta länder. Progresa utvecklades utifrån ett ekonomiskt experiment, med en slumpmässig urvalsprocess samt en experiment- och kontrollgrupp. Med anledning av detta är Progresa ett utmärkt program att studera för ekonomisk analys. Skolnärvaron i mexikanska rurala och urbana områden varierar stort och av denna anledning har effekten av Progresa studerats i de båda regionerna. Det finns många anledningar till varför vi bör förvänta oss avvikande utfall. En förklaring kan vara att utbildningens förväntade avkastning och alternativkostnad påverkar hushållens optimeringsproblem olika. Effekten av Progresa på skolnärvaro är beräknad med en logit regressionsmodell där hushållsdata analyseras inom ramen för hushållets optimeringsproblem. Huvudsakligen har Progresa en positiv effekt på barns skolnärvaro. Dock, och vad som bör noteras, är det faktum att Progresa inte har en signifikant påverkan på äldre rurala barns skolnärvaro. Detta resultat antas förklaras av fattiga familjers olika förutsättningar i rurala och urbana områden. I det fall rurala familjers optimeringsproblem skiljer sig från urbana familjers optimeringsproblem, torde detta innebära att strukturen av ett villkorligt biståndsprogram, så som Progresa, är av största vikt och bör anpassas ändamålsenligt.</p>

Par le présent mémoire, on vise à étudier les impacts du programme social mexicain de lutte contre la pauvreté extrême PROGRESA sur les comportements reproductifs des femmes bénéficiaires recevant l'aide pendant la période mars 1998 - mars 2000. PROGRESA s'insère dans un cadre d'orientations politiques visant à réduire la pauvreté non seulement en agissant sur le plan économique, mais également sur le plan démographique. Les analyses économétriques réalisées à travers de régressions logistiques ont permis de faire ressortir les impacts de PROGRESA sur certains comportements reproductifs des bénéficiaires de l'aide accordée par le programme. Les impacts varient selon l'indicateur utilisé et selon les caractéristiques des bénéficiaires. Alors qu'on ne peut pas conclure à des impacts significatifs sur la fertilité et sur le type de méthode contraceptive utilisée, des impacts significatifs ont été relevés sur d'autres indicateurs sélectionnés. Notamment, la probabilité d'exprimer le désir pour des enfants additionnels a diminué, exception faite pour les femmes plus jeunes âgées de 13 à 29 ans, pour lesquelles la probabilité a augmenté. Néanmoins, la probabilité que celles-ci soient enceintes ou qu'elles allaitent a augmenté deux ans après la mise en œuvre du programme. Pour terminer, la probabilité d'avoir recours à la contraception a augmenté pour les jeunes filles bénéficiaires, et elle est restée inaltérée pour les femmes plus âgées.

Les années 1990 ont vu naître de nouvelles politiques sociales, les « transferts monétaires conditionnels » : allocations attribuées aux familles pauvres à condition qu’elles incitent leurs enfants à poursuivre leur scolarité ou qu’elles les conduisent dans les centres de santé, avec pour objectif de réduire la pauvreté et d’assurer un meilleur avenir aux « pauvres » de demain. Avec leur développement, ces politiques ont créé un nouveau champ de protection sociale, dont les principes et les manières de faire s’éloignent du fonctionnement traditionnel de l’assistance. Ces politiques ont fait leur apparition au Brésil et au Mexique dans les années 1990. L’analyse de leur genèse met en évidence une structuration progressive, marquée par des contextes institutionnels et des trajectoires distincts qui se soldent néanmoins par des résultats semblables. Comment expliquer ce parallélisme ? L’objectif de cette étude a consisté à dégager une ou plusieurs variables permettant d’expliquer l’émergence et l’expansion des programmes de transferts monétaires conditionnels dans ces pays et à mettre en évidence la manière dont l’évolution de ces politiques a pu susciter des oppositions plus ou moins fortes de la part de certains acteurs, ainsi que les contraintes institutionnelles auxquelles ces politiques se sont confrontées. On peut observer la structuration de groupes défendant des causes diverses autour de ces politiques, et qui ont déterminé largement leur élaboration et mise en oeuvre, rentrant tantôt en concurrence tantôt en alliance. C’est, notamment, la coalition dominante « pro-capital humain » qui entend définir et encadrer l’ensemble des politiques menées. L’apport de cette recherche est donc de nuancer l’idée d’une réforme consensuelle des politiques de lutte contre la pauvreté au Mexique et au Brésil, sans pour autant nier l’ampleur des transformations intervenues. Il en résulte que le changement institutionnel au Brésil s’est opéré par l'ajout de nouveaux dispositifs aux institutions existantes ; et au Mexique, en première instance, le processus de changement et de consolidation de la politique de transfert monétaire s’est produit sous la forme d'un déplacement et, par la suite, afin de maintenir le statu quo, les acteurs défenseurs des institutions ont modifié de façon marginale le programme pour maintenir leurs intérêts. Les instruments monétaires qui visent à lutter contre la pauvreté sont, en effet, l’objet d’un consensus ambigu, plusieurs acteurs issus de différentes coalitions finissant par le revendiquer. Enfin, la variable intérêt, nécessaire à différents moments, s’est constituée comme une variable essentielle pour comprendre la permanence de ces politiques par l’intermédiaire des phénomènes de verrouillage. / The 1990s saw the birth of so-called 'conditional cash transfers', assistance programs for poor families on the condition that they encourage their children to seek education and attend health centers. In order to reduce poverty and ensure a better future for tomorrow's « poor », these policies represent a new type of social protection with different principles and modes of operation for traditional programs. The analysis of their origins reveals a progressive structuring marked by institutional contexts and different paths that have generated similar results. The objective of this study is to identify one or more variables that might explain their emergence and expansion in Brazil and Mexico in the 1990s and 2000s and to highlight how the evolution of these policies could generate more or less strong opposition from some actors as well as the institutional constraints these policies face. We can observe group structures centred on "causes" - notably the cause of human capital - that have largely determined the development and implementation of these policies. This paper seeks to show the nuances of the idea of consensual reforms in Mexico and Brazil, without denying the extent to which these transformations have occurred. This means that institutional change in Brazil is operated by adding new features to existing institutions; while in Mexico, in the first instance, the process of change and consolidation of conditional cash transfer programs has occurred as an institutional shift and then the defenders of the status quo actors marginally modified the program to keep their interests. As monetary instruments to combat poverty, these programs are the subject of an ambiguous consensus and actors from different coalitions end up supporting them. Finally, "interests", necessary at different times, were constituted as a key variable to understand the permanence and strengthening of these policies through locking phenomena. / A década de 1990 assistiu ao nascimento das chamadas « transferências condicionadas de renda » : programas assistenciais para famílias pobres à condição de que elas incentivem seus filhos a prosseguirem os estudos e que frequentem centros de saúde. Com o objetivo de reduzir a pobreza e assegurar um futuro melhor para os « pobres » de amanhã, essas políticas representam um novo tipo de proteção social com princípios e modos de operaçäo diferentes dos programas tradicionais. A análise de suas origens revela uma estruturação progressiva marcada por contextos institucionais e trajetórias distintas que geraram resultados semelhantes. O objetivo deste estudo é identificar uma ou mais variáveis que possam explicar a emergência e expansão no Brasil e no México nas décadas de 1990 e 2000, examinando a maneira como suas evoluções suscitaram oposições mais ou menos fortes de atores e os constrangimentos institucionais enfrentados. Nós podemos observar uma estruturação de grupos reunidos em torno a « causas » - notadamente a causa do capital humano - que influem na elaboração e na implementação dessas políticas. Esse trabalho busca matizar a ideia de reformas consensuais no México e no Brasil, sem negar a dimensão das transformações ocorridas. A mudança institucional no Brasil é operada por meio da adição de novos recursos às instituições existentes; e no México, em primeira instância, o processo de mudança e consolidação da política de transferência de renda ocorreu como um deslocamento institucional e, posteriormente, os atores defensores do status quo modificam marginalmente o programa para manter os seus interesses. Assim, esses programas são objeto de um consenso ambíguo, uma vez que atores de diferentes coalizões passam a reivindicar eventualmente esses instrumentos. Finalmente, os « interesses » constituíram-se como uma variável chave para entender a permanência e o reforço das condicionalidades dessas políticas por meio de fenômenos de lock- in.