Earthquake is one of the most destructive natural disasters leading to financial, environmental, and even human losses. The most effective approach to prevent losses induced by structural damage is seismic design for structures, in which the determination of design earthquakes, including seismic design spectra and seismic design ground motions, is of great importance. Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) has been widely used for the determination and selection of design earthquakes. However, there are a number of issues on the engineering application of PSHA in obtaining the design earthquakes, which need to be addressed before it can be readily implemented into reliability- and performance-based seismic design. In this research, based on the PSHA, the generation of seismic design spectra and spectrum-compatible earthquake groundmotions is studied. The PSHA-based seismic design spectra mainly include Uniform Hazard Spectrum (UHS), predicted spectrum based on Ground-Motion Prediction Equations (GMPEs), and Conditional Mean Spectrum considering ε (CMS-ε). These existing design spectra, however, do not or only partially provide probabilistic knowledge about the simultaneous occurrence of spectral accelerations at multiple vibration periods. The lack of such probabilistic knowledge of the design spectra may prevent them from being incorporated into reliability- and performance-based seismic design. The purpose of this study is to bridge the gaps between seismological analyses and engineering applications, i.e., to find suitable representations of design earthquakes from the PSHA. A generalized approach is developed to generate seismic design spectra using both scalar and vector-valued PSHA,which overcomes the deficiencies and preserves certain advantages of the existing PSHA-based seismic design spectra. An approximate approach is also developed to simplify the approach to the generation of seismic design spectra so that they can be easily incorporated into structural design and further performance-based seismic design. On the other hand, spectrum-compatible earthquake ground motions, which are generated by manipulating recorded ground motions, have been widely used for seismic design verification and seismic qualification of structures. The existing spectral matching algorithms in frequency-domain, however, may distort the valuable information contained in recorded earthquake ground motions due to the deficiency of the transformation methodologies on which they are based. To properly preserve the frequency contents and nonstationary characteristics of recorded ground motions, a signal processing method called Hilbert-Huang Transform (HHT) is used to generate spectrum-compatible earthquake ground motions. In the proposed generation procedures, the strategy of the selection of recorded ground motions is based on the PSHA so that the generated ground motions reflect realistic seismic hazard for the site of interest.

Earthquake is one of the most destructive natural disasters leading to financial, environmental, and even human losses. The most effective approach to prevent losses induced by structural damage is seismic design for structures, in which the determination of design earthquakes, including seismic design spectra and seismic design ground motions, is of great importance. Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) has been widely used for the determination and selection of design earthquakes. However, there are a number of issues on the engineering application of PSHA in obtaining the design earthquakes, which need to be addressed before it can be readily implemented into reliability- and performance-based seismic design. In this research, based on the PSHA, the generation of seismic design spectra and spectrum-compatible earthquake groundmotions is studied. The PSHA-based seismic design spectra mainly include Uniform Hazard Spectrum (UHS), predicted spectrum based on Ground-Motion Prediction Equations (GMPEs), and Conditional Mean Spectrum considering ε (CMS-ε). These existing design spectra, however, do not or only partially provide probabilistic knowledge about the simultaneous occurrence of spectral accelerations at multiple vibration periods. The lack of such probabilistic knowledge of the design spectra may prevent them from being incorporated into reliability- and performance-based seismic design. The purpose of this study is to bridge the gaps between seismological analyses and engineering applications, i.e., to find suitable representations of design earthquakes from the PSHA. A generalized approach is developed to generate seismic design spectra using both scalar and vector-valued PSHA,which overcomes the deficiencies and preserves certain advantages of the existing PSHA-based seismic design spectra. An approximate approach is also developed to simplify the approach to the generation of seismic design spectra so that they can be easily incorporated into structural design and further performance-based seismic design. On the other hand, spectrum-compatible earthquake ground motions, which are generated by manipulating recorded ground motions, have been widely used for seismic design verification and seismic qualification of structures. The existing spectral matching algorithms in frequency-domain, however, may distort the valuable information contained in recorded earthquake ground motions due to the deficiency of the transformation methodologies on which they are based. To properly preserve the frequency contents and nonstationary characteristics of recorded ground motions, a signal processing method called Hilbert-Huang Transform (HHT) is used to generate spectrum-compatible earthquake ground motions. In the proposed generation procedures, the strategy of the selection of recorded ground motions is based on the PSHA so that the generated ground motions reflect realistic seismic hazard for the site of interest.

Dans l'histoire de l'Equateur, les séismes ont causé beaucoup de victimes (~60 000) et de nombreux autres problèmes. Les événements récents de la fin du XXe siècle ont mis en évidence que les constructions existantes présentent une vulnérabilité physique importante et que l'impact économique des tremblements de terre pourrait être très élevé. Le risque sismique a trois composantes principales : l'aléa, la vulnérabilité et l'exposition. Par conséquent, pour réduire le risque en Equateur, il est primordial d'effectuer des évaluations probabilistes de l'aléa sismique (PSHA).La première étape du développement du PSHA fut de construire un catalogue sismique dans lequel la sismicité historique et instrumentale est homogène et complète. Les données de sismicité instrumentale ont été rassemblées à partir des catalogues locaux et internationaux. Les événements ont été identifiés et, par l'utilisation d'un régime de hiérarchisation des endroits les plus fiables et des estimations de magnitude, les événements ont été regroupés dans un catalogue unique, unifié et homogénéisé. La sismicité historique réévaluée a ensuite été ajoutée. Le catalogue des séismes en Equateur entre 1587 et 2009 comprend ainsi 10 823 événements instrumentaux et 32 séismes historiques, avec une gamme de magnitude Mw de 3,0 à 8,8.Un modèle de zonage des sources sismiques (SSZ) a ensuite été effectué. Dans le cadre de cette modélisation, une nouvelle vision de la géodynamique de l'Équateur a été conçue. Deux aspects des interactions des plaques à l'échelle continentale permettent d'expliquer plusieurs caractéristiques observées dans la génération des tremblements de terre observés, comme l'essaim sismique d'El Puyo, ainsi que le couplage inter-sismique : les différences de rhéologie des plaques Nazca et Farallon et la convergence oblique provoquée par la forme convexe de la partie nord-ouest de la marge continentale sud-américaine. La paléomarge en extension Grijalva (GRM) marque la frontière entre les deux plaques. La sismicité et le couplage inter-sismique sont faibles et peu profonds au sud de la GRM et augmente vers le nord, avec un modèle de couplage hétérogène associé localement à la subduction de la ride de Carnegie. De grands séismes de décrochement ont rompu l'interface entre la ride de Carnegie et le nord. Au niveau continental, la frontière entre le bloc NA et le bloc stable Amérique du Sud est constituée par le système CCPP de failles. Il concentre la majorité de la libération du moment sismique dans la croûte Equateur. 19 SSZ ont été modélisées : une tranche-externe, trois interfaces, six intra-plaques et neuf croûtes.Le catalogue sismique et une version préliminaire du modèle SSZ ont été appliqués pour déterminer le PSH à Quito et évaluer les incertitudes. La ville est construite sur le toit d'un système de failles inverses actif, qui se déplace de 4,3 à 5,3 mm/an. Les PSH ont montré que la contribution de la SSZ locale explique presque entièrement l'aléa correspondant à une période de retour (PR) de 475 ans. L'analyse a donc été concentrée sur cette zone. La source locale, la géométrie de la SSZ, la modélisation des distributions de fréquence-magnitude et/ou de taux de glissement avec des pourcentages de verrouillage variables, la sélection des GMPEs et l'intégration de l'effet du compartiment chevauchant ont apporté des accélérations avec cette PR avec une variabilité importante. Le PGA moyen obtenu sur un site au rocher est ~0,4g avec cette PR, avec une variabilité de 0,3 à 0,73g.La mise à disposition du PSHA est cruciale pour la gestion des risques mais est compliquée, car les probabilités et les incertitudes ne sont pas facilement assimilées par la société. Suite aux pratiques des sciences sociales et les expériences acquises des alertes précoces d'éruption, une approche participative a été exposée pour construire collectivement des connaissances sur le risque de séisme à Quito, qui pourrait prendre la forme d'un observatoire citoyen. / Seismic hazard and risk are high in Ecuador. Earthquakes are notorious in history both for the number of victims (~60.000) and the hardships they have brought. Moreover, late 20th century events have highlighted evidences that the physical vulnerability of present-day buildings is considerable and that the economic impact of earthquakes could be devastating for Ecuador's sustained growth. Therefore, it is an important contribution for reducing the seismic risk to construct methodologically sound models for probabilistic seismic hazard assessment, which is the main objective of this dissertation.The first step was to construct a seismic catalog for the country where historical and instrumental seismicity is homogeneous and complete. The instrumental seismicity available in local and international catalogs since the beginning of the 20th century was collected. Events were singularized and, by means of a prioritizing scheme of most reliable locations and magnitude estimations, individual events were merged in a single, unified and homogenized catalog. Previously re-evaluated historical seismicity was appended. The 1587–2009 Ecuadorian earthquake catalog finally comprises 10,823 instrumental events plus 32 historical earthquakes with a Mw magnitude range from 3.0 to 8.8.Next a seismic source zones (SSZ) model for probabilistic seismic hazard analysis was worked out. In the course of modeling the SSZ, a new view of Ecuador's complex geodynamics was conceived. This view emphasizes two aspects of the plates' interactions at continental scale: the differences in rheology of Farallon and Nazca plates and the convergence obliquity resulting from the convex shape of the South American northwestern continental margin. Both conditions satisfactorily explain several characteristics of the observed earthquake generation –such as the El Puyo seismic cluster– as well as the interseismic coupling. The Grijalva rifted margin (GRM) marks the boundary between the two plates. Seismicity and interseismic coupling are weak and shallow south of the GRM and increases northward, showing a heterogeneous coupling pattern locally associated to Carnegie ridge's subduction. Great thrust earthquakes have ruptured the interface from Carnegie to the north, not breaking through Carnegie. In the continental realm the CCPP localized fault system constitutes the boundary between the NA block and stable South America. It concentrates most of the seismic moment release in crustal Ecuador. 19 SSZs have been modeled accounting for this new scheme: 1 outer-trench, 3 interface, six intraplate and 9 crustal.The catalog and a preliminary version of the SSZ model were applied in determining the PSH in Quito and assessing the uncertainties. The city is built on the hanging wall of an active reverse fault system that is moving at 4.3-5.3 mm/yr. PSH estimates showed that hazard levels at 475 years return period (RT) almost entirely proceed from the contribution of the local SSZ, therefore the analysis was concentrated on it. Significant variability in accelerations at that RT resulted from a variety of considerations: modeling the local source either as a zone or as fault source, the geometry of the SSZ, the way frequency-magnitude distributions and/or slip rates with variable locking percentages were modeled, the GMPEs selection and the inclusion of the hanging wall effect. The PGA mean value obtained for a rock site Quito is ~0.4 g in that RT with variability ranging from 0.3 to 0.73g.PSHA communication is crucial for risk management, but is difficult since probabilities and uncertainties are not easily assimilated by society. Following the practices of the social sciences and of experiences acquired in issuing eruption early warnings to rural communities, a participatory approach has been outlined to collectively build up knowledge about the earthquake risk in Quito that could take the form of a citizens' observatory for seismic risk awareness and reduction.

The development of a site-specific seismic hazard curve for a soil site requires the incorporation of site effects into the hazard calculation through the use of a site-specific amplification function. This study investigates the effect on the resulting soil hazard curves of different approaches to compute the site-specific amplification function. Amplification functions and their standard deviations can be developed using equivalent linear site response analyses. This study investigates the amplification function predictions of one-dimensional (1D) and two-dimensional (2D) site response analyses. For 1D analysis, one set of analyses are performed using time series (TS) input motions while a second set is performed using random vibration theory (RVT). One-dimensional site response analyses are performed for a shallow and a deep soil site and the results are compared for seismic hazard predictions. The influence of spatial variability introduced through randomization of site shear wave velocity (V[subscript S]) is also investigated. Shear wave velocity profile randomization does not significantly change the predicted amplification functions, except for the RVT analysis near the site period. At these periods, (V[subscript S]) randomization reduces the amplification function predicted by RVT making it more similar to the TS analysis prediction. The surface hazard at a site is dependent on the median amplification factor and its associated standard deviation. Spatial variability and uncertainties in soil properties across a site are often taken into account by modeling multiple 1D profiles in 1D site response analyses. However, this approach assumes that analyzing multiple 1D profiles captures accurately the effects of the true multi-dimensional spatial variability of the soil properties. This study investigates the results of two-dimensional (2D) site response analyses that incorporate spatial variability in the (V[subscript S]) profile through Monte Carlo simulation. Two-dimensional site response analyses are performed for 2D random fields generated with various statistical parameters (i.e. vertical and horizontal correlation distances) to investigate the effect of different levels of spatial variability on surface response across a region of interest (ROI). Two-dimensional site response analyses are performed for a shallow site. Results indicate that horizontal correlation distance has more influence on the analyses results than the vertical correlation distance. As the horizontal correlation distance increases, the median surface response spectrum across the ROI decreases. This reduction in median surface response is more pronounced around the site period. The influence of the vertical correlation distance is more pronounced when the horizontal correlation distance is large. As the vertical correlation distance increases, the median surface response spectrum across the ROI increases, which is more pronounced around the period of the motion. The predictions of 1D and 2D site response analyses modeling the (V[subscript S]) variability are compared. 1D analyses are performed on separately generated 1D (V[subscript S]) profiles (infinite horizontal correlation) and on the (V[subscript S]) profiles across the ROI of each 2D (V[subscript S]) field realization generated for 2D analysis (finite horizontal correlation). The results indicate that both sets of 1D analyses predict lower median response than 2D analyses. The 1D analyses with finite horizontal correlation display comparable levels of variability in the site response, however 1D analyses with infinite horizontal correlation display higher variability. / text

Submitted by Marlon Pirchiner (marlon.pirchiner.work@gmail.com) on 2014-09-09T12:41:58Z No. of bitstreams: 1 dissertacao_biblioteca.pdf: 20168048 bytes, checksum: 06f8b607a56d91eecc737ff55933780a (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Janete de Oliveira Feitosa (janete.feitosa@fgv.br) on 2015-09-09T18:43:32Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 dissertacao_biblioteca.pdf: 20168048 bytes, checksum: 06f8b607a56d91eecc737ff55933780a (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Marcia Bacha (marcia.bacha@fgv.br) on 2015-09-11T12:21:49Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 dissertacao_biblioteca.pdf: 20168048 bytes, checksum: 06f8b607a56d91eecc737ff55933780a (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2015-09-11T12:22:02Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 dissertacao_biblioteca.pdf: 20168048 bytes, checksum: 06f8b607a56d91eecc737ff55933780a (MD5) Previous issue date: 2014-07-15 / Seismic risk assesment is crucial to make better decisions about engineering structures and loss mitigation. It involves, mainly, the evaluation of seismic hazard. Seismic hazard assesment is the computation of probability which the level of some ground motion intensity measure, in a given site, which, in some time window, will be exceeded. Depending on geological and tectonic complexity, the seismic hazard evaluation becomes more sofisticated. At sites with low seismicity, which is the brazilian case, the relative (geolo- gically) low observation time and the lack of earthquake and tectonic information, increases the uncertainties and makes more difficult the standard analysis, which in general, consider expert opinions, to characterize the seismicity into disjoint zones. This text discusses some smoothing seismicity techniques and their theoretical foundati- ons as alternative methods for seismicity characterization. Next, the methods are exemplified in the brazilian context. / A avaliação de risco sísmico, fundamental para as decisões sobre as estruturas de obras de engenharia e mitigação de perdas, envolve fundamentalmente a análise de ameaça sísmica. Calcular a ameaça sísmica é o mesmo que calcular a probabilidade de que certo nível de determinada medida de intensidade em certo local durante um certo tempo seja excedido. Dependendo da complexidade da atividade geológica essas estimativas podem ser bas- tante sofisticadas. Em locais com baixa sismicidade, como é o caso do Brasil, o pouco tempo (geológico) de observação e a pouca quantidade de informação são fontes de muitas incer- tezas e dificuldade de análise pelos métodos mais clássicos e conhecidos que geralmente consideram, através de opiniões de especialistas, determinadas zonas sísmicas. Serão discutidas algumas técnicas de suavização e seus fundamentos como métodos al- ternativos ao zoneamento, em seguida se exemplifica suas aplicações no caso brasileiro.

Les travaux de cette thèse s'inscrivent dans l'objectif général de fournir des recommandations sur la façon d'intégrer les effets du site dans l'évaluation probabiliste des risques sismiques, mieux connue sous le nom de PSHA, une méthodologie connue et utilisée à l'échelle mondiale pour estimer l'aléa et le risque sismiques à l'échelle régionale et locale. Nous passons donc en revue les méthodes disponibles dans la littérature pour obtenir la courbe d'aléa sismique en surface d'un site non-rocheux, en commençant par les méthodes les plus simples et plus génériques (partiellement probabiliste), jusqu'aux méthodes site-spécifiques (partiellement et entièrement probabilistes) qui nécessitent une caractérisation du site de plus en plus poussée, rarement disponible sauf cas exceptionnel comme par exemple le site test d'Euroseistest. C'est justement sur l'exemple de ce site que sont donc comparées un certain nombre de ces méthodes, ainsi qu'une nouvelle.La spécificité et la difficulté de ces études PSHA "site-spécifiques" vient du caractère non-linéaire de la réponse des sites peu rigides, ainsi que du fait que le rocher de référence contrôlant cette réponse est souvent très rigide. Les aspects "ajustement rocher dur" et "convolution" de l'aléa sismique au rocher avec la fonction d'amplification ou la fonction transfert (empirique ou numérique) d’un site font donc l'objet d'une attention particulière dans ces études comparatives. Un cadre général est présenté sur la façon de prendre en compte simultanément les caractéristiques spécifiques au site, la variabilité aléatoire complète ou réduite ("single station sigma"), les ajustements hôte-cible et le comportement linéaire / non linéaire d'un site, où nous expliquons toutes les étapes, corrections, avantages et difficultés que nous avons trouvés dans le processus et les différentes façons de les mettre en oeuvre.Cette étude comparative est divisée en deux parties: la première porte sur les méthodes non site-spécifiques et les méthodes hybrides site-spécifique (évaluation probabiliste de l'aléa au rocher et déterministe de la réponse de site), la seconde porte sur deux approches prenant en compte la convolution aléa rocher / réponse de site de façon probabiliste. Un des résultats majeurs de la première est l'augmentation de l'incertitude épistémique sur l'aléa en site meuble comparé à l'aléa au rocher, en raison du cumul des incertitudes associées à chaque étape. Un autre résultat majeur commun aux deux études est l'impact très important de la non-linéarité du sol dans les sites souples, ainsi que de la façon de les prendre en compte: la variabilité liée à l'utilisation de différents codes de simulation NL apparaît plus importante que la variabilité liée à différentes méthodes de convolution 100% probabilistes. Nous soulignons l'importance d'améliorer la manier d’inclure les effets du site dans les méthodes de l’estimation de l’aléa sismique probabiliste ou PSHA, et nous soulignons aussi l'importance d'instrumenter des sites actifs avec des sédiments meubles, comme l'Euroseistest, afin de tester et valider les modèles numériques.Finalement, on présente un résumé des résultats, des conclusions générales, de la discussion sur les principaux problèmes méthodologiques et des perspectives d'amélioration et de travail futur.Mots-clés: Effets du site, incertitude épistémique, PSHA, single station sigma, ajustements hôte-cible, effets linéaires et non linéaires, réponse de site / The overall goal of this research work is of provide recommendations on how to integrate site effects into Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment, better known as PSHA, a well-known and widely used methodology. Globally used to estimate seismic hazard and risk at regional and local scales. We therefore review the methods available in the literature to obtain the seismic hazard curve at the surface of a soft soil site, starting with the simplest and most generic methods (partially probabilistic), up to the full site-specific methods (partially and fully probabilistic), requiring an excellent site-specific characterization, rarely available except exceptional cases such as the case of Euroseistest site. It is precisely on the example of this site that are compared a number of these methods, as well as a new one. And it is precisely at the Euroseistest that we performed an example of application of the different methods as well as a new one that we propose as a result of this work.The specificity and difficulty of these "site-specific" PSHA studies comes from the non-linear nature of the response of the soft sites, as well as from the fact that the reference rock controlling this response is often very rigid. The "rock to hard rock adjustment" and "convolution" aspects of the rock seismic hazard, together with the amplification function or the transfer function (empirical or numerical) of a site are therefore the subject of particular attention in these studies. comparative studies. A general framework is presented on how to simultaneously take into account the site-specific characteristics, such as the complete or reduced random variability ("single station sigma"), host-to -target adjustments and the linear / nonlinear behavior of a site, where we explain all the followed steps, the different corrections performed, the benefits and difficulties that we found in the process and the ways we sort them and discussing them when the answer was not straight forward.This comparative study is divided into two parts: the first deals with non-site-specific methods and site-specific hybrid methods (probabilistic evaluation of rock hazard and deterministic of the site response). The second deals with two approaches taking into account the convolution of rock hazard and the site response in a probabilistically way. One of the major results of the first is the increase of the epistemic uncertainty on the soft site hazard compared to the rock hazard, due to acumulation of uncertainties associated to each step. Another major common result to both studies is the very important impact of non-linearity on soft sites, as well as the complexity on how to account for them: the variability associated with the use of different non-linear simulation codes appears to be greater than the method-to-method variability associated with the two different full convolution probabilistic methods. We emphasize on the importance of improving the way in which the site effects are included into probabilistic seismic hazard methods, PSHA. And we also emphasize on the importance of instrumenting active sites with soft sediments, such as the Euroseistest, to test and validate numerical models.Finally, a summary of the results, the general conclusions, discussion of key methodological issues, and perspectives for improvement and future work are presented.Keywords: Site Effects, Epistemic Uncertainty, PSHA, single station sigma, host to target adjustments, linear and nonlinear site effects, soil site response.

This thesis addresses two fundamental topics in Engineering Seismology; the application of Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) methodology, and the estimation of measures of Strong Ground Motion. These two topics, while being related, are presented as separate sections. In the first section, state-of-the-art PSHA methodologies are applied to various sites in the Buller Region, South Island, New Zealand. These sites are deemed critical to the maintenance of economic stability in the region. A fault-source based seismicity model is developed for the region that is consistent with the governing tectonic loading, and seismic moment release of the region. In attempting to ensure this consistency the apparent anomaly between the rates of activity dictated by deformation throughout the Quaternary, and rates of activity dictated by observed seismicity is addressed. Individual fault source activity is determined following the application of a Bayesian Inference procedure in which observed earthquake events are attributed to causative faults in the study region. The activity of fault sources, in general, is assumed to be governed by bounded power law behaviour. An exception is made for the Alpine Fault which is modelled as a purely characteristic source. The calculation of rates of exceedance of various ground motion indices is made using a combination of Poissonian and time-dependent earthquake occurrence models. The various ground motion indices for which rates of exceedance are determined include peak ground acceleration, ordinates of 5% damped Spectral Acceleration, and Arias Intensity. The total hazard determined for each of these ground motion measures is decomposed using a four dimensional disaggregation procedure. From this disaggregation procedure, design earthquake scenarios are specified for the sites that are considered. The second part of the thesis is concerned with the estimation of ground motion measures that are more informative than the existing scalar measures that are available for use in New Zealand. Models are developed for the prediction of Fourier Amplitude Spectra (FAS) as well as Arias Intensity for use in the New Zealand environment. The FAS model can be used to generate ground motion time histories for use in structural and geotechnical analyses. Arias Intensity has been shown to be an important strong motion measure due to its positive correlation with damage in short period structures as well as its utility in predicting the onset of liquefaction and landslides. The models are based upon the analysis of a dataset of New Zealand Strong Motion records as well as supplementary near field records from major overseas events. While the two measures of ground motion intensity are strongly related, different methods have been adopted in order to develop the models. As part of the methodology used for the FAS model, Monte Carlo simulation coupled with a simple ray tracing procedure is employed to estimate source spectra from various New Zealand earthquakes and, consequently, a magnitude - corner-frequency relationship is obtained. In general, the parameters of the predictive equations are determined using the most state-of-the-art mixed effects regression procedures.

No description available.

Many researchers have pointed out that the accumulation of strain energy in the Penninsular Indian Shield region may lead to earthquakes of significant magnitude(Srinivasan and Sreenivas, 1977; Valdiya, 1998; Purnachandra Rao, 1999; Seeber et al., 1999; Ramalingeswara Rao, 2000; Gangrade and Arora, 2000). However very few studies have been carried out to quantify the seismic hazard of the entire Pennisular Indian region. In the present study the seismic hazard evaluation of South Indian region (8.0° N - 20° N; 72° E - 88° E) was done using the deterministic and probabilistic seismic hazard approaches. Effects of two of the important geotechnical aspects of seismic hazard, site response and liquefaction, have also been evaluated and the results are presented in this work. The peak ground acceleration (PGA) at ground surface level was evaluated by considering the local site effects. The liquefaction potential index (LPI) and factor of safety against liquefaction wee evaluated based on performance based liquefaction potential evaluation method. The first step in the seismic hazard analysis is to compile the earthquake catalogue. Since a comprehensive catalogue was not available for the region, it was complied by collecting data from different national (Guaribidanur Array, Indian Meterorological Department (IMD), National Geophysical Research Institute (NGRI) Hyderabad and Indira Gandhi Centre for Atomic Research (IGCAR) Kalpakkam etc.) and international agencies (Incorporated Research Institutions for Seismology (IRIS), International Seismological Centre (ISC), United States Geological Survey (USGS) etc.). The collected data was in different magnitude scales and hence they were converted to a single magnitude scale. The magnitude scale which is chosen in this study is the moment magnitude scale, since it the most widely used and the most advanced scientific magnitude scale. The declustering of earthquake catalogue was due to remove the related events and the completeness of the catalogue was analysed using the method suggested by Stepp (1972). Based on the complete part of the catalogue the seismicity parameters were evaluated for the study area. Another important step in the seismic hazard analysis is the identification of vulnerable seismic sources. The different types of seismic sources considered are (i) linear sources (ii) point sources (ii) areal sources. The linear seismic sources were identified based on the seismotectonic atlas published by geological survey of India (SEISAT, 2000). The required pages of SEISAT (2000) were scanned and georeferenced. The declustered earthquake data was superimposed on this and the sources which were associated with earthquake magnitude of 4 and above were selected for further analysis. The point sources were selected using a method similar to the one adopted by Costa et.al. (1993) and Panza et al. (1999) and the areal sources were identified based on the method proposed by Frankel et al. (1995). In order to map the attenuation properties of the region more precisely, three attenuation relations, viz. Toto et al. (1997), Atkinson and Boore (2006) and Raghu Kanth and Iyengar (2007) were used in this study. The two types of uncertainties encountered in seismic hazard analysis are aleatory and epistemic. The uncertainty of the data is the cause of aleatory variability and it accounts for the randomness associated with the results given by a particular model. The incomplete knowledge in the predictive models causes the epistemic uncertainty (modeling uncertainty). The aleatory variability of the attenuation relations are taken into account in the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis by considering the standard deviation of the model error. The epistemic uncertainty is considered by multiple models for the evaluation of seismic hazard and combining them using a logic tree. Two different methodologies were used in the evaluation of seismic hazard, based on deterministic and probabilistic analysis. For the evaluation of peak horizontal acceleration (PHA) and spectral acceleration (Sa) values, a new set of programs were developed in MATLAB and the entire analysis was done using these programs. In the deterministic seismic hazard analysis (DSHA) two types of seismic sources, viz. linear and point sources, were considered and three attenuation relations were used. The study area was divided into small grids of size 0.1° x 0.1° (about 12000 grid points) and the PHA and Sa values were evaluated for the mean and 84th percentile values at the centre of each of the grid points. A logic tree approach, using two types of sources and three attenuation relations, was adopted for the evaluation of PHA and Sa values. Logic tree permits the use of alternative models in the hazard evaluation and appropriate weightages can be assigned to each model. By evaluating the 84th percentile values, the uncertainty in spectral acceleration values can also be considered (Krinitzky, 2002). The spatial variations of PHA and Sa values for entire South India are presented in this work. The DSHA method will not consider the uncertainties involved in the earthquake recurrence process, hypocentral distance and the attenuation properties. Hence the seismic hazard analysis was done based on the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA), and the evaluation of PHA and Sa values were done by considering the uncertainties involved in the earthquake occurrence process. The uncertainties in earthquake recurrence rate, hypocentral location and attenuation characteristic were considered in this study. For evaluating the seismicity parameters and the maximum expected earthquake magnitude (mmax) the study area was divided into different source zones. The division of study area was done based on the spatial variation of the seismicity parameters ‘a’ and ‘b’ and the mmax values were evaluated for each of these zones and these values were used in the analysis. Logic tree approach was adopted in the analysis and this permits the use of multiple models. Twelve different models (2 sources x 2 zones x 3 attenuation) were used in the analysis and based on the weightage for each of them; the final PHA and Sa values at bed rock level were evaluated. These values were evaluated for a grid size of 0.1° x 0.1° and the spatial variation of these values for return periods of 475 and 2500 years (10% and 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years) are presented in this work. Both the deterministic and probabilistic analyses highlighted that the seismic hazard is high at Koyna region. The PHA values obtained for Koyna, Bangalore and Ongole regions are higher than the values given by BIS-1893(2002). The values obtained for south western part of the study area, especially for parts of kerala are showing the PHA values less than what is provided in BIS-1893(2002). The 84th percentile values given DSHA can be taken as the upper bound PHA and Sa values for South India. The main geotechnical aspects of earthquake hazard are site response and seismic soil liquefaction. When the seismic waves travel from the bed rock through the overlying soil to the ground surface the PHA and Sa values will get changed. This amplification or de-amplification of the seismic waves depends on the type of the overlying soil. The assessment of site class can be done based on different site classification schemes. In the present work, the surface level peak ground acceleration (PGA) values were evaluated based on four different site classes suggested by NEHRP (BSSC, 2003) and the PGA values were developed for all the four site classes based on non-linear site amplification technique. Based on the geotechnical site investigation data, the site class can be determined and then the appropriate PGA and Sa values can be taken from the respective PGA maps. Response spectra were developed for the entire study area and the results obtained for three major cities are discussed here. Different methods are suggested by various codes to Smooth the response spectra. The smoothed design response spectra were developed for these cities based on the smoothing techniques given by NEHRP (BSSC, 2003), IS code (BIS-1893,2002) and Eurocode-8 (2003). A Comparison of the results obtained from these studies is also presented in this work. If the site class at any location in the study area is known, then the peak ground acceleration (PGA) values can be obtained from the respective map. This provides a simplified methodology for evaluating the PGA values for a vast area like South India. Since the surface level PGA values were evaluated for different site classes, the effects of surface topography and basin effects were not taken into account. The analysis of response spectra clearly indicates the variation of peak spectral acceleration values for different site classes and the variation of period of oscillation corresponding to maximum Sa values. The comparison of the smoothed design response spectra obtained using different codal provisions suggest the use of NEHRP(BSSC, 2003) provisions. The conventional liquefaction analysis method takes into account only one earthquake magnitude and ground acceleration values. In order to overcome this shortfall, a performance based probabilistic approach (Kramer and Mayfield, 2007) was adopted for the liquefaction potential evaluation in the present work. Based on this method, the factor of safety against liquefaction and the SPT values required to prevent liquefaction for return periods of 475 and 2500 years were evaluated for Bangalore city. This analysis was done based on the SPT data obtained from 450 boreholes across Bangalore. A new method to evaluate the liquefaction return period based on CPT values is proposed in this work. To validate the new method, an analysis was done for Bangalore by converting the SPT values to CPT values and then the results obtained were compared with the results obtained using SPT values. The factor of safety against liquefaction at different depths were integrated using liquefaction potential index (LPI) method for Bangalore. This was done by calculating the factor of safety values at different depths based on a performance based method and then the LPI values were evaluated. The entire liquefaction potential analysis and the evaluation of LPI values were done using a set of newly developed programs in MATLAB. Based on the above approaches it is possible to evaluate the SPT and CPT values required to prevent liquefaction for any given return period. An analysis was done to evaluate the SPT and CPT values required to prevent liquefaction for entire South India for return periods of 475 and 2500 years. The spatial variations of these values are presented in this work. The liquefaction potential analysis of Bangalore clearly indicates that majority of the area is safe against liquefaction. The liquefaction potential map developed for South India, based on both SPT and CPT values, will help hazard mitigation authorities to identify the liquefaction vulnerable area. This in turn will help in reducing the liquefaction hazard.

Mankind is facing the problem due to earthquake hazard since prehistoric times. Many of the developed and developing countries are under constant threats from earthquakes hazards. Theories of plate tectonics and engineering seismology have helped to understand earthquakes and also to predicate earthquake hazards on a regional scale. However, the regional scale hazard mapping in terms of seismic zonation has been not fully implemented in many of the developing countries like India. Agglomerations of large population in the Indian cities and poor constructions have raised the risk due to various possible seismic hazards. First and foremost step towards hazard reduction is estimation of the seismic hazards in regional scale. Objective of this study is to estimate the seismic hazard parameters for Lucknow, a part of Indo-Gangetic Basin (IGB) and develop regional scale microzonation map. Lucknow is a highly populated city which is located close to the active seismic belt of Himalaya. This belt came into existence during the Cenozoic era (40-50 million years ago) and is a constant source of seismic threats. Many of the devastating earthquakes which have happened since prehistoric times such as 1255 Nepal, 1555 Srinagar, 1737 Kolkata, 1803 Nepal, 1833 Kathmandu, 1897 Shillong, 1905 Kangra, 1934 Bihar-Nepal, 1950 Assam and 2005 Kashmir. Historic evidences show that many of these earthquakes had caused fatalities even up to 0.1 million. At present, in the light of building up strains and non-occurrence of a great event in between 1905 Kangra earthquake and 1934 Bihar-Nepal earthquake regions the stretch has been highlighted as central seismic gap. This location may have high potential of great earthquakes in the near future. Geodetic studies in these locations indicate a possible slip of 9.5 m which may cause an event of magnitude 8.7 on Richter scale in the central seismic gap. Lucknow, the capital of Uttar Pradesh has a population of 2.8 million as per Census 2011. It lies in ZONE III as per IS1893: 2002 and can be called as moderate seismic region. However, the city falls within 350 km radial distance from Main Boundary Thrust (MBT) and active regional seismic source of the Lucknow-Faizabad fault. Considering the ongoing seismicity of Himalayan region and the Lucknow-Faizabad fault, this city is under high seismic threat. Hence a comprehensive study of understanding the earthquake hazards on a regional scale for the Lucknow is needed. In this work the seismic microzonation of Lucknow has been attempted. The whole thesis is divided into 11 chapters. A detailed discussion on the importance of this study, seismicity of Lucknow, and methodology adopted for detailed seismic hazard assessment and microzonation are presented in first three chapters. Development of region specific Ground Motion Prediction Equation (GMPE) and seismic hazard estimation at bedrock level using highly ranked GMPEs are presented in Chapters 4 and 5 respectively. Subsurface lithology, measurement of dynamic soil properties and correlations are essential to assess region specific site effects and liquefaction potential. Discussion on the experimental studies, subsurface profiling using geotechnical and geophysical tests results and correlation between shear wave velocity (SWV) and standard penetration test (SPT) N values are presented in Chapter 6. Detailed shear wave velocity profiling with seismic site classification and ground response parameters considering multiple ground motion data are discussed in Chapters 7 and 8. Chapters 9 and 10 present the assessment of liquefaction potential and determination of hazard index with microzonation maps respectively. Conclusions derived from each chapter are presented in Chapter 11. A brief summary of the work is presented below: Attenuation relations or GMPEs are important component of any seismic hazard analysis which controls accurate prediction of the hazard values. Even though the Himalayas have experienced great earthquakes since ancient times, suitable GMPEs which are applicable for a wide range of distance and magnitude are limited. Most of the available regional GMPEs were developed considering limited recorded data and/or pure synthetic ground motion data. This chapter presents development of a regional GMPE considering both the recorded as well as synthetic ground motions. In total 14 earthquakes consisting of 10 events with recorded data and 4 historic events with Isoseismal maps are used for the same. Synthetic ground motions based on finite fault model have been generated at unavailable locations for recorded events and complete range distances for historic earthquakes. Model parameters for synthetic ground motion were arrived by detailed parametric study and from literatures. A concept of Apparent Stations (AS) has been used to generate synthetic ground motion in a wide range of distance as well as direction around the epicenter. Synthetic ground motion data is validated by comparing with available recorded data and peak ground acceleration (PGA) from Isoseismal maps. A new GMPE has been developed based on two step stratified regression procedure considering the combined dataset of recorded and synthetic ground motions. The new GMPE is validated by comparing with three recently recorded earthquakes events. GMPE proposed in this study is capable of predicting PGA values close to recorded data and spectral acceleration up to period of 2 seconds. Comparison of new GMPE with the recorded data of recent earthquakes shows a good matching of ground motion as well as response spectra. The new GMPE is applicable for wide range of earthquake magnitudes from 5 to 9 on Mw scale. Reduction of future earthquake hazard is possible if hazard values are predicted precisely. A detailed seismic hazard analysis is carried out in this study considering deterministic and probabilistic approaches. New seismotectonic map has been generated for Lucknow considering a radial distance of 350 km around the city centre, which also covers active Himalayan plate boundaries. Past earthquakes within the seismotectonic region have been collected from United State Geological Survey (USGS), Northern California Earthquake Data Centre (NCEDC), Indian Meteorological Department (IMD), Seismic Atlas of India and its Environs (SEISAT) etc. A total of 1831 events with all the magnitude range were obtained. Collected events were homogenized, declustered and filtered for Mw ≥ 4 events. A total of 496 events were found within the seismic study region. Well delineated seismic sources are compiled from SEISAT. Superimposing the earthquake catalogue on the source map, a seismotectonic map of Lucknow was generated. A total of 47 faults which have experienced earthquake magnitude of 4 and above are found which are used for seismic hazard analysis. Based on the distribution of earthquake events on the seismotectonic map, two regions have been identified. Region I which shows high density of seismic events in the area in and around of Main Boundary Thrust (MBT) and Region II which consists of area surrounding Lucknow with sparse distribution of earthquake events. Data completeness analysis and estimation of seismic parameter “a” and “b” are carried out separately for both the regions. Based on the analysis, available earthquake data is complete for a period of 80 years in both the regions. Using the complete data set, the regional recurrence relations have been developed. It shows a “b” value of 0.86 for region I and 0.9 for Region II which are found comparable with earlier studies. Maximum possible earthquake magnitude in each source has been estimated using observed magnitude and doubly truncated Gutenberg-Richter relation. The study area of Lucknow is divided into 0.015o x 0.015o grid size and PGA at each grid has been estimated by considering all sources and the three GMPEs. A Matlab code was generated for seismic hazard analysis and maximum PGA value at each grid point was determined and mapped. Deterministic seismic hazard analysis (DSHA) shows that maximum expected PGA values at bedrock level varies from 0.05g in the eastern part to 0.13g in the northern region. Response spectrum at city centre is also developed up to a period of 2 seconds. Further, Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) has been carried out and PGA values for 10 % and 2 % probability of exceedence in 50 years have been estimated and mapped. PSHA for 10 % probability shows PGA variation from 0.035g in the eastern parts to 0.07g in the western and northern parts of Lucknow. Similarly PSHA for 2 % probability of exceedence indicates PGA variation from 0.07g in the eastern parts while the northern parts are expecting PGA of 0.13g. Uniform hazard spectra are also developed for 2 % and 10 % probability for a period of up to 2 seconds. The seismic hazard analyses in this study show that the northern and western parts of Lucknow are more vulnerable when compared to other part. Bedrock hazard values completely change due to subsoil properties when it reaches the surface. A detailed geophysical and geotechnical investigation has been carried out for subsoil profiling and seismic site classification. The study area has been divided into grids of 2 km x 2 km and roughly one geophysical test using MASW (Multichannel Analysis Surface Wave) has been carried out in each grid and the shear wave velocity (SWV) profiles of subsoil layers are obtained. A total of 47 MASW tests have been carried out and which are uniformly distributed in Lucknow. In addition, 12 boreholes have also been drilled with necessary sampling and measurement of N-SPT values at 1.5 m interval till a depth of 30 m. Further, 11 more borelog reports are collected from the same agency hired for drilling the boreholes. Necessary laboratory tests are conducted on disturbed and undisturbed soil samples for soil classification and density measurement. Based on the subsoil informations obtained from these boreholes, two cross-sections up to a depth of 30 m have been generated. These cross-sections show the presence of silty sand in the top 10 m at most of the locations followed by clayey sand of low to medium compressibility till a depth of 30 m. In between the sand and clay traces of silt were also been found in many locations. In addition to these boreholes, 20 deeper boreholes (depth ≥150 m) are collected from Jal Nigam (Water Corporation) Lucknow, Government of Uttar Pradesh. Typical cross-section along the alignment of these deeper boreholes has been generated up to 150 m depth. This cross-section shows the presence of fine sand near Gomati while other locations are occupied by surface clayey sand. Also, the medium sand has been found in the western part of the city at a depth of 110 m which continues till 150 m depth. On careful examination of MASW and boreholes with N-SPT, 17 locations are found very close and SWV and N-SPT values are available up to 30 m depth. These SWV and N-SPT values are complied and used to develop correlations between SWV and N-SPT for sandy soil, clayey soil and all soil types. This correlation is the first correlation for IGB soil deposits considered measured data up to 30 m. The new correlation is verified graphically using normal consistency ratio and standard percentage error with respect to measured N-SPT and SWV. Further, SWV and N-SPT profiles are used Another important earthquake induced hazard is liquefaction. Even though many historic earthquakes caused liquefaction in India, very limited attempt has been made to map liquefaction potential in IGB. In this study, a detailed liquefaction analysis has been carried out for Lucknow a part of Ganga Basin to map liquefaction potential. Initially susceptibility of liquefaction for soil deposits has been assessed by comparing the grain size distribution curve obtained from laboratory tests with the range of grain size distribution for potentially liquefiable soils. Most of surface soil deposits in the study area are susceptible to liquefaction. At all the 23 borehole locations, measured N-SPT values are corrected for (a) Overburden Pressure (CN), (b) Hammer energy (CE), (c) Borehole diameter (CB), (d) presence or absence of liner (CS), (e) Rod length (CR) and (f) fines content (Cfines). Surface PGA values at each borehole locations are used to estimate Cyclic Stress Ratio (CSR). Corrected N-SPT values [(N1)60CS] are used to estimate Cyclic Resistance Ratio (CRR) at each layer. CSR and CRR values are used to estimate Factor of Safety (FOS) against liquefaction in each layer. Least factor safety values are indentified from each location and presented liquefaction factor of safety map for average and maximum amplified PGA values. These maps highlight that northern, western and central parts of Lucknow are very critical to critical against liquefaction while southern parts shows moderate to low critical area. The entire alignment of river Gomati falls in very critical to critical regions for liquefaction. Least FOS shows worst scenario and does not account thickness of liquefiable soil layers. Further, these FOS values are used to determine Liquefaction Potential Index (LPI) of each site and developed LPI map. Based on LPI map, the Gomati is found as high to very high liquefaction potential region. Southern and the central parts of Lucknow show low to moderate liquefaction potential while the northern and western Lucknow has moderate to high liquefaction potential. All possible seismic hazards maps for Lucknow have been combined to develop final microzonation map in terms of hazard index values. Hazard index maps are prepared by combining rock PGA map, site classification map in terms of shear wave velocity, amplification factor map, and FOS map and predominant period map by adopting Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP). All these parameters have been given here in the order starting with maximum weight of 6 for PGA to lower weight of 1 for predominant frequency. Normalized weights of each parameter have been estimated. Depending upon the variation of each hazard parameter values, three to five ranks are assigned and the normalized ranks are calculated. Final hazard index values have been estimated by multiplying normalized ranks of each parameter with the normalized weights. Microzonation map has been generated by mapping hazard index values. Three maps were generated based on DSHA, PSHA for 2% and 10 % probability of exceedence in 50 years. Hazard index maps from DSHA and PSHA for 2 % probability show similar pattern. Higher hazard index were obtained in northern and western parts of Lucknow and lower values in others. The new microzonation maps can help in dividing the Lucknow into three parts as high area i.e. North western part, moderate hazard area i.e. central part and low hazard area which covers southern and eastern parts of Lucknow. This microzonation is different from the current seismic code where all area is lumped in one zone without detailed assessment of different earthquake hazard parameters. Finally this study brings out first region specific GMPE considering recorded and synthetic ground monitions for wide range of magnitudes and distances. Proposed GMPE can also be used in other part of the Himalayan region as it matches well with the highly ranked GMPEs. Detailed rock level PGA map has been generated for Lucknow considering DSHA and PSHA. A detailed geotechnical and geophysical experiments are carried out in Lucknow. These results are used to develop correction between SWV and N-SPT values for soil deposit in IGB and site classification maps for the study area. Amplification and liquefaction potential of Lucknow are estimated by considering multiple ground motions data to account different earthquake ground motion amplitude, duration and frequency, which is unique in the seismic microzonation study.