Paleotempestology, the study of past tropical cyclones (TCs) using geological proxy techniques, is a growing discipline that utilizes data from a broad range of sources. Most paleotempestological studies have been conducted using “established proxies”, such as grain-size analysis, loss-on-ignition, and micropaleontological indicators. More recently researchers have been applying more advanced geochemical analyses, such as X-ray fluorescence (XRF) core scanning and stable isotopic geochemistry to generate new paleotempestological records. This is presented as a four article-type thesis that investigates how changing climate conditions have impacted the frequency and paths of tropical cyclones in the western North Atlantic basin on different spatial and temporal scales. The first article (Chapter 2; Oliva et al., 2017, Prog Phys Geog) provides an in-depth and up-to-date literature review of the current state of paleotempestological studies in the western North Atlantic basin. The assumptions, strengths and limitations of paleotempestological studies are discussed. Moreover, this article discusses innovative venues for paleotempestological research that will lead to a better understanding of TC dynamics under future climate change scenarios. The second article (Chapter 3; Oliva et al., submitted, The Holocene) presents the development of the first database summarizing the most up-to-date paleotempestological proxy data available for TC reconstructions for the western North Atlantic basin. Subsets of this new database are then used to reconstruct TC variability in the western North Atlantic basin. Using our new developed subsets, we investigate a key hypothesis, the Bermuda High Hypothesis that has been proposed to have influenced TC paths over centennial to millennial timescales. Results show an oscillation in the distribution of TC landfalls along the North American coast, suggesting a centennial oscillation in the mean summer position of the high pressure system. We suggest that a more serious, millennial scale shift in the Bermuda High to a northeastern (NE position) may have occurred at ~3000 and ~1000 cal yr BP. The third article (Chapter 4; Oliva et al., under review, Marine Geology) presents a local multi-proxy reconstruction of TC activity during the past 800 years from Robinson Lake, Chezzetcook Inlet in Nova Scotia, Canada. Here, we are testing the more recent use of the XRF scanning approach to paleotempestology at a local scale. Two sediment cores were extracted from Robinson Lake that were dated by 210Pb and 14C, analyzed for organic matter content, benthic foraminifera and thecamoebians, sediment grain size, and a range of elements and elemental ratios determined by XRF core scanning. Results show two periods of low TC activity based on multiple proxies including XRF technology: one from ~1150 to 1475 CE (800 – 475 cal yr BP) and the other from 1670 CE (280 cal yr BP) to the present, with the intervening period from ~1475 to 1670 CE (475 – 280 cal yr BP) as a time of more frequent and possibly higher magnitude TC activity. The fourth article (Chapter 5. Oliva et al., in preparation, Canadian Journal of Earth Sciences) explores the potential use of stable oxygen isotopes in tree ring α-cellulose to reconstruct past local TC activity surrounding areas of known TC strikes. Cores of 12 Picea mariana trees were extracted adjacent to Robinson Lake, Chezzetcook Inlet, Nova Scotia in order to test more contemporary and historically documented records of TC activity in this region as per Chapter 4. TCs precipitate 18O-depleted rain, leaving a unique signature in the source water that trees use to form cellulose. Using an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA AR-1) model to detrend the data, local and regional time series were reconstructed. Local reconstructions led to most (> 95%) hurricanes and all major hurricane (± 1 year) being recorded in the isotope record, whereas the regional reconstruction shows no major hurricane, only a few hurricanes (< 40%) and one signal with a higher error (> 1 year). This thesis contributes to advancing our knowledge in paleotempestology of the western North Atlantic basin by: 1) bringing an up-to-date current status on paleotempestology, 2) the development and ongoing use of a new paleotempestology database for the western North Atlantic basin publicly available, 3) a local scale study using new XRF core elemental technology and 4) the exploratory use of tree-ring α-cellulose oxygen isotopic analysis based on contemporary and historical documents at local sites.

Jekyll Island, Georgia is located within the Georgia Bight, on the Atlantic coast of the United State. In recent history, the Georgia Bight has been less frequently hit by hurricanes compared to other areas along the Atlantic coast. To determine if Jekyll Island has had a more active hurricane past, a paleohurricane record was obtained from the northern tip of the island, within Waterfall Marsh. A 500 year old hurricane record was inferred from the sediment layers obtained from the marsh. In core JE-4, a sandy shell layer containing nearshore foraminifera was observed, providing evidence of a hurricane event. A radiocarbon date of 406 a BP was obtained for the sandy shell layer, providing a minimum age for the hurricane event. A hurricane return interval of one major hurricane per 500 years was also determined for the study area.

Thesis advisor: Amy Frappier / Tropical cyclones (TCs), known as hurricanes in the Atlantic and Typhoons in the Pacific, are among the most destructive and deadly natural disasters that occur on Earth. Attempts to understand how TCs relate to the global climate system, and future risk assessments are dependent upon having records of TC activity that pre-date the modern meteorological records, which are commonly not older than 130 years (Nott, 2003). Paleotempestology is a sub-discipline of paleoclimatology that attempts to extend the TC record beyond the meteorological record through the use of proxies. Presented here is the establishment of a paleotempestology proxy based on clastic mud being suspended in the water column by floods caused by TCs and deposited in stalagmite CH-1, collected in June of 2007 from Cenote Chaltun-Ha, a low-lying cave from the Yucatán Peninsula. CH-1 was dated by a combination of <super>210</super>Pb, U/Th, and layer counting techniques, creating an age model for its entire length. The years with mud layers were compared to the historical TC record from 1852-2006. Nineteen mud layers were identified for this time period. All of the mud layers deposited in years with at least one TC passing within 330 km of Cenote Chaltun-Ha. A total of 265 mud layers were identified in CH-1 dating from 198 BC to 2006 AD. Relatively high TC frequency, ~16 mud layers/century, was recorded in CH-1 from 198 BC to ~1233 AD. This period was followed by eight centuries of relatively low TC frequency, ~7 mud layers/century. The low frequency period hit a low point in the 1600s with 4 mud layers. Since the 1600s the TC frequency recorded in CH-1 has been on the rise, indicating possible periods of higher than present TC frequency in the future for the Yucatán region. This trend of high TC frequency followed by a sudden drop and subsequent increase is also reported in published sand overwash deposit research. &#948;;<super>18</super>O and &#948;;<super>13</super> values collected from CH-1 provide insight into the timing of regional droughts. A low &#948;;<super>18</super>O value from 1815 provides evidence that "The Year Without a Summer" caused by the 1815 eruption of the Tambora volcano in Indonesia had a climatic effect on the Yucatán. A land-use signal related to the agricultural production boom of Agave Fourcroydes, a succulent plant known as Henequen, in the early 20th century was also detected in &#948;;<super>13</super>C values. / Thesis (MS) — Boston College, 2010. / Submitted to: Boston College. Graduate School of Arts and Sciences. / Discipline: Geology and Geophysics.

Palynological, lithological, loss-on-ignition, and X-ray fluorescence spectroscopy data were collected from a modified Livingstone core retrieved from Bay Jimmy, Louisiana. This data indicates a slow, general regression of the marsh due to sea level rise. This trend was punctuated by several catastrophic events including floods from around ca. 600 Yr BP and ca. 360 Yr BP, a fire around ca. 950 Yr BP, and still more flooding caused by the landfall of Hurricane Audrey in AD 1957, and Hurricanes Katrina and Rita in AD 2005. In more recent years (220 Yr BP to present) the marsh appears to have thinned out. This may be due to anthropogenic barriers, which have inhibited the marsh’s natural retreat as witnessed over the past 1200 years recorded by this core.

Hurricanes are amongst the most devastating of the world’s natural disasters and can cause billions of dollars’ worth of damage every year. Efforts to predict where and when tropical cyclones might strike, then, could potentially save money and lives. A lack of data exists for the GA coast, and the future direction of climate change could potentially bring more hurricanes to the state. This study provides information to enhance the paleohurricane record by examining three vibracores drawn from St. Catherines Island, GA. After interpreting the environments that generated the sediment found in one of these cores and corroborating evidence from the additional cores, six potential hurricane events were discovered, five of which were likely major hurricanes, category 3 or higher. Magnitudes were determined by comparison to event six, thought to be “The Great Gale of 1804”, a major hurricane recorded by the sedimentary record of St. Catherines Island.

Many flood risk assessments are based on instrumental records less than a century in length. Sedimentary and historical archives provide the opportunity to extend flood records by several centuries to millennia. In doing so these longer flood records provide opportunities for improving upon current flood risk assessment and gaining additional insight on the various climatic and geomorphic processes that drive changes in flood frequency. Such a reconstruction has not been attempted previously for Boston, MA where extratropical cyclones (ETC) are currently the dominant mechanism of coastal flooding. Here, we present both a historical reconstruction of extreme storm tides to affect Boston Harbor, and an independent geologic assessment of extreme flooding based on flood deposits preserved within the sediments of Bartlett Pond, a back-barrier coastal pond located 60 kilometers south of Boston. The historical reconstruction presented here identifies events of extreme flooding back to 1723, which are temporally consistent with overwash deposits identified from the sedimentary analysis at Bartlett Pond. Bartlett Pond is beyond the influence of significant dredging, landfill and dam projects within Boston Harbor. The consistency between extreme flood occurrences in Boston and Bartlett Pond therefore suggest that these man-made alterations have had a minimal impact on extreme flooding to the harbor. Additional modeling work is necessary however to provide confirmation on this initial finding. While flooding associated with the Blizzard of 1978 appears to be an anomaly in the modern instrumental record, our new historical/sedimentological record identify 6 additional events of similar size since European colonization, suggesting an under-assessment of the risk of these types of extreme events for Boston by as much as 300%. Additionally, the 1000 yr Bartlett Pond sedimentary reconstruction appears to show an increase in overwash frequency over the last 300 – 500 years when compared to the 500 years prior. A similar increase in ETC flooding has been observed in nearby sedimentological archives from the Gulf of Maine and could possibly be explained by variations in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and/or changes in sea surface temperature.

Our knowledge of whether hurricanes cause lasting changes in forest composition and the patterns and role of fire in Caribbean dry forests are lacking. This project combines paleoecological and paleotempestological methods to document the disturbance and environmental history of the last 1000 yrs at Laguna Alejandro, situated in the lowland dry forests of arid SW Dominican Republic. I analyzed multiple proxy data sources of a 160 cm coastal lagoon sediment profile. High-resolution (1 cm) sampling for loss-on-ignition and magnetic susceptibility indicated multiple erosion and hurricane events, including a hurricane ~996 cal YBP, and several erosion events and hurricanes between ~321 cal YBP and present day. Pollen analysis documented 32 plant families with most levels dominated by pollen of Fabaceae (legumes), the Urticales order, and Cyperaceae (sedges), though families of upland and montane vegetation are also present ~510-996 cal YBP. All pollen slides contained microscopic charcoal indicating the occurrence of regional or extra-local fires over the last ~1000 yrs. Local fires, as indicated by macroscopic charcoal, occurred before ~434 cal YBP and may be tied to hurricanes, increased moisture in the region (thereby increased fuel and ignition chances), or prehistoric human activities. Pollen spectra representing periods before and after disturbance events were similar and may support the idea of forest resilience, but more samples are needed. Multiple erosion events between ~294 cal YBP and present may be tied to hurricanes or tropical storms and increasing late-Holocene aridity in the region as documented by several studies from the Caribbean. / Master of Science

Analyzing past tropical cyclone activity enables researchers to recognize patterns of hurricane variability, estimate hurricane return periods, and assess local risk to future storms. This paleotempestology study used original primary data to make the historical record as comprehensive and accurate as possible for three major hurricanes: October 1844, October 1846, and September 1848. This thesis presents the reconstructed storm tracks, assesses the societal impacts, and evaluates the storm intensity of these three major hurricanes for the eastern U.S. and Cuba. The data utilized in this study include ship logbooks, newspapers, diaries, and instrumental meteorological records. A geographic information system (GIS) was used to construct the storm tracks of all three hurricanes and to map synoptic temperature data for the October 1846 and September 1848 storms. The estimated intensity of the tropical cyclones throughout their life cycle was included in the storm tracks, and intensity upon landfall was categorized based on the Saffir-Simpson scale. The results show that the October 1844 storm made landfall in western Cuba as a category 4 hurricane, causing substantial damages to Matanzas and the surrounding area. The October 1846 hurricane struck western Cuba with the intensity of a category 5 hurricane, producing devastating impacts in Havana before transitioning to an extratropical cyclone as it traveled northward across the eastern United States. The September 1848 storm originated in the western Gulf of Mexico and made landfall near Tampa Bay, Florida as a category 4 hurricane. This detailed investigation of individual historical hurricanes is an important step towards a more complete understanding of local-level hurricane risk as well as basin-wide hurricane variability.

No description available.

The global paleoclimate archive is lacking in tropical dendrochronology studies as a result of limitations from inconsistent tree-ring production imposed by precipitation-driven seasonality. The slash pine, Pinus elliottii Engelm. var. densa, is the dominant canopy species of Big Pine Key (BPK) rocklands and has been shown to produce complicated, but distinct, ring structures; however, traditional dendrochronology studies have not established correlations between ring width measurements and major climate drivers controlling South Florida precipitation. My study utilized the carbon (δ13C) and oxygen (δ18O) isotope records in the α-cellulose component of tree-rings to extract information about the physiological responses of trees to climate and tropical cyclone activity. The δ13C measurements in the earlywood and latewood of four P. elliottii var. densa trees were used to build a chronology (1922-2005) and to distinguish annual growth from intra-annual density fluctuations (IADFs). Empirical orthogonal functions were used to determine individual response to precipitation, El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). There is a distinct relationship between the δ13C values of cellulose and ENSO; however the nature (direct vs. inversely correlated) is temporally controlled by the prevailing phase of the AMO. The appearance of some IADFs coincide with the timing of El Niño winters occurring during the cool AMO phase, resulting in enriched δ13C values. The additional precipitation may encourage tree growth, but subsequent dry periods may slow growth and cause the tree to employ water-conservation strategies. Tree growth is influenced by the major climate drivers and the control they exert over the timing of precipitation; however, growth is ultimately controlled by the microenvironment surrounding individual trees. The δ18O and δ13C values of the latewood cellulose were compared to tropical cyclone activity occurring within a 100km radius of BPK. Tropical storms and depressions appeared as anomalously depleted values in the δ18O residual record, reflecting large amounts of tropical rain. The effects of hurricanes varied by storm; however, many of the major hurricanes (category 3-5) were preserved as an enrichments in the δ13C value of the following earlywood season. The application of stable isotope analyses greatly increases the breadth of paleoclimate information available from the trees.