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This paper uses data for 255 NUTS-2 European regions over the period 1995-2003 to test the relative explanatory performance of two important rival theories seeking to explain variations in the level of economic development across regions, namely the neoclassical model originating from the work of Solow (1956) and the so-called Wage Equation, which is one of a set of simultaneous equations consistent with the short-run equilibrium of new economic geography (NEG) theory, as described by Fujita, Krugman and Venables (1999). The rivals are non-nested, so that testing is accomplished both by fitting the reduced form models individually and by simply combining the two rivals to create a composite model in an attempt to identify the dominant theory. We use different estimators for the resulting panel data model to account variously for interregional heterogeneity, endogeneity, and temporal and spatial dependence, including maximum likelihood with and without fixed effects, two stage least squares and feasible generalised spatial two stage least squares plus GMM; also most of these models embody a spatial autoregressive error process. These show that the estimated NEG model parameters correspond to theoretical expectation, whereas the parameter estimates derived from the neoclassical model reduced form are sometimes insignificant or take on counterintuitive signs. This casts doubt on the appropriateness of neoclassical theory as a basis for explaining cross-regional variation in economic development in Europe, whereas NEG theory seems to hold in the face of competition from its rival. (authors' abstract)

Submitted by Nara Lays Domingues Viana Oliveira (naradv) on 2015-07-07T15:00:58Z No. of bitstreams: 1 katiane.pdf: 351762 bytes, checksum: 315dcef5eaf98ff120848c68ab48e8aa (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2015-07-07T15:00:58Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 katiane.pdf: 351762 bytes, checksum: 315dcef5eaf98ff120848c68ab48e8aa (MD5) Previous issue date: 2014 / Nenhuma / Este estudo tem como objetivo apontar os determinantes mais relevantes na definição do preço médio do milho exportado no mercado mundial, no intuito de prover informações aos agentes econômicos. Trata do panorama atual do mercado mundial de milho, partindo-se de 2000, quando houve o boom dos preços das commodities. Nesse sentido, o modelo econométrico proposto para o presente estudo consiste no modelo estatístico estruturado com base em dados em painel, com periodicidade anual entre o período de 2000 a 2012. Para uma melhor compreensão das análises, primeiramente apresentou-se, nos primeiros capítulos, uma revisão dos conceitos teóricos e empíricos que abordam os principais fatores determinantes na definição do preço médio do milho exportado. Posteriormente, analisou-se se o exercício desenvolvido trata-se realmente de um modelo de dados em painel, realizando o teste F para significância em conjunto das dummies de país. Também foi definido através do teste de Hausman que o estimador de efeito fixo é o indicado. Assim, foram elaborados quatro modelos, sendo que o modelo D instrumentalizando a variável exportação de milho em kg pela variável exportação de milho em kg defasada em 1 período apresentou os resultados mais consistentes e conclusivos em relação ao embasamento teórico dos capítulos iniciais. Dentre os principais resultados, fica evidenciada que o principal determinante da alteração do preço de exportação do milho é a variável taxa de câmbio real efetiva. Também mostraram-se significativas as variáveis exportações (em kg) de milho do país para o mundo; exportações de carne suína dos principais destinos das exportações de milho do país; e população urbana dos principais destinos das exportações de milho do país. / The objective of this study is to indicate the most important determinants in the worldwide exported maize average price in order to provide information to economic agents. Treats the world maize market current situation, starting at 2000 when there was a boom in commodity prices. This way, the econometric model proposed for this study is structured in the statistical model based on panel data on an annual basis between the period 2000 up to 2012. For the analysis better understanding, a review of theoretical and empirical concepts was previously presented in the early chapters, which deals the main factors in defining the exported maize average price. After, the developed exercise was analyzed performing the F test for significance in all the country dummies, in order to prove that this is really a panel data model. Was also defined by the Hausman test that is indicated the fixed effect estimator to this model. Thus, four models were made, and the D model, instrumenting the variable maize export (in kg) with the variable maize export (in kg) lagged 1 period, and it presented most consistent and conclusive results regarding the theoretical basis of the initial chapters. Among the main results, it is evident that the main determinant of the maize export price variation is the real effective exchange rate variable. Also revealed that the variables country maize exports (in kg) to the world; pork meat exports of the main maize export destinations; and urban population of the main maize export destinations are significant.

abstract: The dynamics of urban water use are characterized by spatial and temporal variability that is influenced by associated factors at different scales. Thus it is important to capture the relationship between urban water use and its determinants in a spatio-temporal framework in order to enhance understanding and management of urban water demand. This dissertation aims to contribute to understanding the spatio-temporal relationships between single-family residential (SFR) water use and its determinants in a desert city. The dissertation has three distinct papers to support this goal. In the first paper, I demonstrate that aggregated scale data can be reliably used to study the relationship between SFR water use and its determinants without leading to significant ecological fallacy. The usability of aggregated scale data facilitates scientific inquiry about SFR water use with more available aggregated scale data. The second paper advances understanding of the relationship between SFR water use and its associated factors by accounting for the spatial and temporal dependence in a panel data setting. The third paper of this dissertation studies the historical contingency, spatial heterogeneity, and spatial connectivity in the relationship of SFR water use and its determinants by comparing three different regression models. This dissertation demonstrates the importance and necessity of incorporating spatio-temporal components, such as scale, dependence, and heterogeneity, into SFR water use research. Spatial statistical models should be used to understand the effects of associated factors on water use and test the effectiveness of certain management policies since spatial effects probably will significantly influence the estimates if only non-spatial statistical models are used. Urban water demand management should pay attention to the spatial heterogeneity in predicting the future water demand to achieve more accurate estimates, and spatial statistical models provide a promising method to do this job. / Dissertation/Thesis / Ph.D. Sustainability 2013

This thesis analyzes determinants of housing construction in regions in the Czech Republic. The main research question is the impact of standard of living on housing construction. The living standard is expressed in terms of net disposable income per capita and housing construction represents the number of housing starts. Other determinants included to the model estimation are rate of unemployment, housing price and number of mortgage. Analysis works with the panel data from period 2005- 2015 and all variables are used in the logarithmic form with one year lag. The model is estimated by random effects model. The assumption about positive impact of living standard on housing construction is not confirmed, because of the statistical insignificance of variable net disposable income. In case of other variables expected effects are confirm. The increases in rate of unemployment and housing prices have the negative impact on housing construction. And opposite the number of mortgage has positive impact on housing construction.

本研究採取固定效果( fixed effect ) panel data模型，分析影響中國大陸外商直接投資( FDI )的決定性因素，共分為三個面向進行實證，第一個面向係按FDI投資區域之不同，而分為東部沿海與中西部地區進行估計；第二個面向則按FDI投資產業之不同，分為三大產業進行分析；第三個面向係以FDI之來源地區為依據，共分為八個主要FDI來源地區探討其決定性因素。 在分區估計方面，透過一般化最小平方法( generalized least squares, GLS )進行估計，得到的結果顯示，東部地區係以市場區位來吸引FDI前來投資，例如市場商機與較高的對外開放程度；而中西部地區則以生產區位來吸引FDI，如低廉的勞動成本、地方基礎建設水準，換言之，兩地區之間在影響FDI的因素上完全不同，另一方面，針對固定效果的觀察發現，地理位置位在東部地區的省市，固定效果明顯高於中西部地區，因此東部地區的確比中西部地區具有較佳的條件以吸引FDI。 若按FDI所投資的三大產業進行實證，以探討FDI之決定性因素，其估計結果顯示，第一產業( 農、林、漁、牧業 ) FDI的影響因素為對外開放程度，具有負面排擠FDI的效果，而第二產業( 製造業、建築業等 ) FDI的影響因素則為市場規模、工資率、高品質勞動力供應與對外開放程度，除工資率為負面影響外，其他因素皆為正向效果，第三產業( 服務業 )因樣本期間中國大陸尚未放寬外資的進入限制，故僅有基礎建設與高品質勞動力供應是影響FDI的決定性因素。 在中國大陸不同來源國FDI之決定性因素方面，實證結果發現，中國大陸高速的經濟成長率會吸引美國、新加坡、台灣的廠商前來投資，低廉的工資水準則形成對美國、南韓、新加坡以及台灣的吸引力，而中國大陸若加強研發能力，可促使美國、日本、南韓、新加坡、台灣增加直接投資，但廠商過度集中所導致的高度競爭環境，卻會排擠掉英國、香港的FDI，本研究也考慮高品質勞動供應的影響，以香港、台灣廠商較注重高品質勞動力是否充分供應，另一方面，對外開放程度的高低對日本、新加坡、香港、台灣的廠商具有正面效果，對德國廠商則有負面影響。 隨著中國大陸加入世界貿易組織( WTO )後，中國政府對外資的政策勢必更加開放，在中國大陸龐大市場與廉價生產要素的誘惑下，預期會有更多外國資金投入中國大陸，中國做為世界工廠的地位將更加穩固，對我國而言，面對中國經濟崛起所導致的全球經濟整合以及產業分工趨勢，我國必須採取正面的態度來思考中國大陸問題，善用本身所具備的充沛資金與研發能力，以及與中國大陸同文同種的優勢，積極進入大陸市場，一方面應用其廉價勞動力，一方面搶佔大陸市場佔有率，將中國大陸做為我國經濟實力的延伸，我國廠商方能在國際競爭潮流下取得生存利基，進而從中國市場打入全球市場，則我國未來的經濟前景必將大有可為！

This thesis focuses on the development of credit to the private sector in the Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries. Although the speed of credit growth in these countries has recently slowed down as the consequence of the global financial crisis, the overall increase in credit to the private sector over the past decades has been immense. As a result, the thesis examines whether this substantial increase in credit is linked to the convergence of the CEE countries towards the equilibrium or whether it represents an excessive credit growth that could threaten the macroeconomic and financial stability in these countries. We estimate the equilibrium credit levels for 11 transition countries by applying a dynamic panel data model. Since in-sample approach may bias the estimation results we perform the estimates out-of-sample using a panel of selected developed EU countries as a benchmark. The difference between the actual and estimated credit-to-GDP ratios serves as a measure of private credit excessiveness. The results indicate a slightly excessive or close to the equilibrium credit-to-GDP ratios in Bulgaria, Estonia, and Latvia prior to the financial crisis. With regard to the significant decline in GDP during the crisis this measure of credit excessiveness in these countries have further increased.

本研究以Ohlson (1995) model為發展基礎，並將盈餘定義為（１）剩餘淨利及（２）盈餘水準，分別就此二種不同定義下的盈餘，以年度盈餘時間序列來測試其是否符合線性資訊動態假設，及針對各模式對股權價值估計與預測之結果做比較，探討何種評價方法或模式對於估計真實價值、解釋價格及預測報酬之效果較佳。 研究結果發現，我國上市公司之剩餘淨利及盈餘水準時間序列皆符合線性資訊動態假說。剩餘淨利線性資訊動態模型較能正確預估次一期的盈餘。相較於單獨以帳面價值來估計股價，考慮線性資訊動態模型所建立之各評價模型所預測之估計股價皆未能正確預測權益價值及解釋權益價值之波動。在投資策略方面，因剩餘淨利模型之投資績效最為穩定，在該模型之投資策略下，V/P比率愈低（高）之投資組合獲得之平均股票報酬愈低（高），代表股價愈是被低估的投資組合可賺取更多之投資報酬，這說明剩餘淨利模型預測次期投資報酬之能力最佳，投資人可以其做為建立投資策略的參考。 / Based on Ohlson (1995) model, this study specifies earnings variables as both residual income and earnings levels to test the linear information dynamic (LID) models per se and the ability of competing valuation models to value the contemporaneous stock prices. A comparison of future stock return predicting capability of competing models is also conducted. By using both residual income time series and earnings levels time series for examining the issue on the firms listed on the Taiwan Stock Exchange (TSE), the empirical results support Ohlson’s information dynamics. However, when estimated as a time series, the linear information models using either residual income or earnings levels variables provide value estimates no better than book value does alone. From the investment strategy aspect, the superior predictive ability of the residual income valuation model with respect to future stock returns demonstrates that high (low) V/P ratios gets high (low) investment returns. It implies that the underpriced portfolio makes high investment returns. Accordingly, the residual income valuation is good for estimating returns on the following year and is therefore a valuable investment reference..

In this paper we estimate space-time impacts of the embeddedness in R&D networks on regional knowledge production by means of a dynamic spatial panel data model with non-linear effects for a set of 229 European NUTS-2 regions in the period 1999-2009. Embeddedness refers to the positioning in networks where nodes represent regions that are linked by joint R&D endeavours in European Framework Programmes. We observe positive immediate impacts on regional knowledge production arising from increased embeddedness in EU funded R&D networks, in particular for regions with lower own knowledge endowments. However, long-term impacts of R&D network embeddedness are comparatively small.(authors' abstract) / Series: Department of Economics Working Paper Series

Submitted by Rubens Paes de Arruda Filho (rp_arruda@yahoo.com.br) on 2015-02-23T14:27:31Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertação Rubens - Revisão Final V6.pdf: 1648807 bytes, checksum: 3f8fbe044fc4f9934e477662e1d9b540 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Renata de Souza Nascimento (renata.souza@fgv.br) on 2015-02-23T22:58:43Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertação Rubens - Revisão Final V6.pdf: 1648807 bytes, checksum: 3f8fbe044fc4f9934e477662e1d9b540 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2015-02-24T13:13:17Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertação Rubens - Revisão Final V6.pdf: 1648807 bytes, checksum: 3f8fbe044fc4f9934e477662e1d9b540 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2015-01-26 / This study aims to investigate the relationship between three specifics multiples (Price/Earnings, Price/Book Value and Price/Sales) and its determinants (growth, payout ratio, risk, ROE and Margin), according to the theory presented by Aswath Damodaran. To verify these relationships, two different econometric methodologies were used: The Multiple Linear Regression and the Panel Data Model. The data collected are from the companies listed in the Stock Exchange Index of São Paulo - iBovespa. The results obtained by both methods were not the same as in theory, because some of the determinants did not show the expected behavior, and also were not statistically significant. The main contribution of this study is the use of Panel Data methodology to obtain the results. / Esse trabalho tem como objetivo investigar a relação entre três múltiplos específicos (Preço/Lucro, Preço/Valor Patrimonial e Preço/Vendas) e seus determinantes (crescimento, payout ratio, risco, ROE e margem líquida), de acordo com a teoria apresentada por Aswath Damodaran. Para verificar essas relações, foram utilizadas duas metodologias econométricas distintas: A Regressão Linear Múltipla e o Modelo de Dados em Painel. Os dados coletados são referentes às empresas listadas no índice de ações da Bolsa de Valores de São Paulo – iBOVESPA. Os resultados apurados por ambos os métodos não foram os mesmos verificados na teoria, pois alguns dos determinantes não apresentaram o comportamento esperado, e também não foram estatisticamente significantes. A principal contribuição desse trabalho é a utilização da metodologia de Dados em Painel para obter os resultados.