Stochastic analysis provides a rationale for the treatment of uncertainties, founded on the principles of probability theory and statistics, and is concerned with a quantifiable measure of the confidence or the reliability associated with any design process. In this thesis, a stochastic approach is employed in the design of flexible pavement structures, to facilitate the development of safe and reliable pavement structures. The important aspects that have been explored in sufficient detail include the system reliability and global sensitivity analysis, and the spatial and temporal uncertainties that pervade the life of pavements. Chapter 1 of the thesis provides an introduction to the stochastic modelling of flexible pavements and its significance in the present day. Highlighting the need for this study, this chapter also enumerates its objectives and presents an overview of the organization of the thesis. Chapter 2 provides a review of the existing literature of the design of flexible pavements and the approaches adopted to deal with the various sources of uncertainties in a probabilistic setting. The estimation of the uncertainties in fundamental pavement design inputs and their integration into the general performance prediction procedures has become a required component of the modern Mechanistic-Empirical pavement design methodology, which has been described in detail. This chapter also provides the scope of the thesis by identifying the areas of stochastic analysis that have received little attention in the flexible pavement design, which include the effect of spatial variability on the pavement structural responses and the techniques of global sensitivity analysis. Chapter 3 provides a detailed overview of the various methodologies adopted in this thesis to carry out the stochastic modelling of flexible pavements. The fundamental technique adopted for the analysis of reliability is the Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS), which relies upon a numerical/analytical model of the physical system, i.e. the pavement model and a probabilistic description of the design parameters represented by random variables or random fields. The high computational expense associated with the MCS, particularly in the case of random fields, is tackled by the use of meta-models based on the stochastic response surface methodology. The chapter outlines the steps followed to develop the meta-models in the form of Polynomial Chaos Equations (PCEs) and its extension to the Sparse PCE that can conveniently represent the spatial variability of the pavement fields. Chapter 4 deals with the probabilistic modelling of flexible pavements, where the design parameter and model uncertainties are quantified based on the available literature studies. The global sensitivity analysis, which aims to study the impact of the input uncertainty on the variation of a model output (critical pavement responses) through uncertainty propagation, is achieved by the construction of the Polynomial Chaos Equations (PCEs). To implement the global sensitivity analysis in a system reliability framework, a generalized approach based on Bayes’ theorem and the concept of entropy as a sensitivity measure, has been proposed in this chapter. Chapter 5 deals with the characterization of the spatial variability inherent in the pavement layer by employing random fields and analyzing the effect on the pavement responses. The discretization of the random field into a vector of random variables is achieved through the simple Midpoint Discretization and the efficient Expansion Optimal Linear Estimation method. Since the computational effort in stochastic problems is proportional to the number of random variables involved, it is desirable to use a small number of random variables to represent the random field. To achieve this, the principle of transformation of the original random variables into a set of uncorrelated random variables through an eigenvalue orthogonalization procedure is adopted. To further increase the computational efficiency of generating random fields for Monte Carlo Simulation, the variance reduction technique of Latin Hypercube Sampling and the meta-modelling technique using Sparse Polynomial Chaos Equations (SPCEs) are implemented. The primary focus of this chapter is to analyze the influence of the spatial variability of the pavement layer moduli, including its anisotropic characteristics on the pavement structural responses. Chapter 6 focuses on the time-dependent reliability of the pavement structures as they age in service, with due consideration given to degradation of strength with traffic loading. The study is concerned with the fatigue reliability and thereby only the decrease in the asphalt modulus with time is considered as a function of the accumulated damage due to repeated loading, whose uncertainty is determined by the uncertainties of material parameters and the traffic loading. The time-dependent model adopted in this chapter can be quite effortlessly embedded in the Mechanistic-Empirical design framework, and provides a tool to effectively schedule the maintenance of the pavement structure and ensure that the reliability level remains at the desired level for the entire design life of the structure. Chapter 7 summarizes the various studies reported in this thesis and highlights the important conclusions.

For the past three decades, geosynthetics have been recognized as materials that can significantly improve the performance of pavements on weak subgrade. Pavements exhibit non-linear elasto-plastic behavior. The addition of geosynthetics is undoubtedly beneficial. This being said, researchers have concentrated more on lower life cycle cost and high benefit-cost ratio whereas much less attention has been given to the complex behavior of the reinforced pavement system. Comprehension of the short-term and long-term field performance of reinforced pavements under continued traffic and cyclic environmental loading has remained unexplored. There is empirical evidence indicating quantitative benefits of reinforced versus unreinforced pavement structure. However, quantification of the relative benefits of different types of reinforcement like geogrids and geotextiles lacks information. Further, evaluation of the benefits and comparison of chemical stabilization in the form of lime treatment with mechanical stabilization in the form of reinforcement for pavements on soft soils has received lack of attention. In view of this, full-scale instrumented reinforced and lime treated pavement sections with different schemes were studied. Regular Falling Weight Deflectometer (FWD) testing was conducted in a Farm-to-Market Road, in Grimes County, Texas. Three different geosynthetic products were used for base reinforcement and lime treatment was used for subbase stabilization. Deflection measurements for 9 field trips in 3.5 years were evaluated. Modified deflection basin parameters (DBPs) were defined to typically identify layer properties and were used to measure the relative damage to the base, subbase and subgrade for different sections. A modified Base Damage Index (BDI) and a modified Base Curvature Index (BCI) were defined as a part of this study to capture the benefit of reinforced base and lime stabilized subbase respectively. The variation in the DBPs over three periods of wetting and drying along with explanation of the observed trends forms a part of this research. In addition, a number of condition surveys were performed, during 3 years, to visually identify distresses in various sections. A unique distress quantification technique was developed for measuring deterioration of the pavement sections in terms of the observed distresses and FWD measurements. With this, an index of pavement performance was developed. Thus, the FWD deflection data analyses complemented by visual observation, reveals important information on performance of different geosynthetics with the same base course. Analysis of the field performance of the multiple experimental sections throws light on the relative merits of base reinforcement against lime stabilization. / text

O comportamento mecânico do subleito tem influência determinante no desempenho das estruturas de pavimento. Porém, muitas vezes, os estudos realizados para elaboração de projetos são simplistas e não levam em conta as variações de comportamento mecânico que podem ocorrer, seja por fatores construtivos, seja ambientais, como umidade, durante o período de operação. Neste sentido, métodos de dimensionamento mecanicistas-empíricos de estruturas de pavimentos empregam modelos de comportamento das diversas camadas da estrutura e do subleito, sendo alvos de constantes revisões para recalibração destes modelos, de modo que se aproximem mais da realidade do comportamento em serviço. As calibrações dos modelos são necessárias para aumentar a confiabilidade do dimensionamento de modo a garantir pavimentos mais duráveis, e para otimizar custos de execução e de manutenção ao longo da vida útil das estruturas. Neste contexto o presente trabalho propõe uma metodologia para compreender as propriedades dos solos do subleito e de suas variações, estabelecendo um programa de ensaios de campo e de laboratório, cadastramento, processamento e combinação de resultados de propriedades físicas e mecânicas de solos de subleitos de pavimentos de rodovias existentes. O objetivo final é estabelecer parâmetros de deformabilidade elástica de solos do subleito e sua variabilidade para auxiliar no dimensionamento de novas estruturas de pavimentos e reabilitação das antigas. O trabalho utiliza estudos de casos de pavimentos rodoviários em operação. O primeiro caso foi base para o estabelecimento metodológico de estudo desejável do subleito de um pavimento existente, concebendo modelos de previsão de comportamento resiliente do subleito para uso em futuros projetos de restauração deste pavimento ou para novos projetos em locais com similaridade de ocorrência de solos. Empregando a metodologia estabelecida no primeiro caso, fez-se uma busca minuciosa de dados em vários documentos existentes sobre pavimentos rodoviários de concessionárias do Estado de São Paulo, concebendo-se um banco de dados para análise do subleito destes pavimentos, de modo a ampliar a gama de solos pesquisados. Com resultados de caracterização de solos em laboratório e de deflectometria em campo, além de dados de localização dos pontos estudados em mapas geológicos e pedológicos, dados de precipitação, de terraplenagem, entre outros, pôde-se analisar os dados e identificar a influência de cada elemento na variação do módulo de resiliência dos solos de fundação de pavimentos em serviço. O banco de dados de ensaios laboratoriais de solos de subleito contou com um total de 3.894 registros e de ensaios não destrutivos deflectométricos de campo com um total de 169.525 registros (dados históricos de nove rodovias estaduais diferentes). Dentre as principais conclusões, verificou-se que grande parte dos modelos de correlações existentes na literatura entre parâmetros de propriedades físicas e de resistência (como CBR) de solos com o módulo de resiliência possui aplicação muito restrita, inviabilizando sua aplicação de forma indiscriminada em locais distintos daqueles onde foram obtidas as correlações. Além disso, verificou-se que o módulo de resiliência do subleito em campo apresenta variações de grande magnitude e, portanto, é de difícil previsão, requerendo acumulação de dados históricos, bem como de um cadastro adicional de maior gama de informações. Recomenda-se que maiores quantidades de ensaios sejam realizadas e que permitam verificação, ou dupla checagem, para validação, bem como para futuramente ser possível o estabelecimento de modelos matemáticos mais confiáveis. Nos estudos, foi possível estabelecer parâmetros estatísticos que podem ser utilizados tanto em métodos de dimensionamento vigentes ou novos, como naquelas que consideram as variações do módulo de resiliência do subleito para determinação do risco de falha, ou da confiabilidade das estruturas. / Subgrade mechanical behavior has a determining influence on the performance of pavement structures. However, often, the studies carried out for project designs are simplistic and do not take into account the variations that can occur in the mechanical behavior, whether by constructive factors or environmental ones, such as the moisture content during the operation period. Thus, mechanical-empirical design methods of pavement structures employ performance models of the many layers of the structure and of the subgrade, being targets of constant revisions for adjustment of these models so that they come closer to reality in operation behavior. Model adjustments are necessary to increase design reliability to ensure more durable pavements and to optimize execution and maintenance costs during the structure life. In this context, the present work proposes a methodology to understand the subgrade soil properties and their variations, establishing a program of field and laboratory tests, registration, processing and combination of results of physical and mechanical properties of subgrade soils of existing highway pavements. The final objective is to establish parameters of the subgrade soil elastic deformability and their variability to assist in the design of new pavement structures and in the rehabilitation of old ones. This work uses case studies of road pavements in operation. The first case was the basis for the methodological establishment of a desirable study of the subgrade of an existing pavement, designing predictive models of the subgrade resilient behavior for use in future rehabilitation projects of this pavement or for new projects in places with a similar occurrence of soils. By using the methodology established in the first case, a thorough data search was carried out in several existing documents on road pavements of concessionaires in the State of São Paulo, and a database was prepared to analyze the subgrade of such pavements in order to expand the range of soils studied. With the results of soil characterization in the laboratory and by field deflections, in addition to location data of the points studied in geological and pedological maps, precipitation and earthwork data, among others, it was possible to analyze the data and identify the influences of each element on the variation of the subgrade resilient modulus of the pavements in operation. The database from laboratory tests of subgrade soils covered a total of 3,894 registers and of non-destructive deflectometric field tests - a total of 169,525 registers (historical data on nine different state highways). Among the main conclusions, it was verified that most of the correlation models existing in the literature between parameters of physical and mechanical strength properties (like the CBR) of soils with the resilient moduli have very restricted application, making it impossible to apply them indiscriminately in places other than those where the correlations were obtained. In addition, it was verified that the resilient modulus of the subbase in situ presents variations of great magnitude and, therefore, it is difficult to make predictions. Lots of historical data are required, as well as additional registers of a greater range of information. Therefore, it is recommended that a larger number of tests be performed in order to allow for checking and double-checking for validation as well as the possibility of a future establishment of more reliable mathematical models. In the studies, it was possible to establish statistical parameters that can be used both in current and in new design methods, like in those that consider variations of the subgrade resilient moduli to determine the risk of failure or of the reliability of structures.

A caracterização das cargas do tráfego é de grande importância para o dimensionamento de pavimentos, bem como para a quantificação do desempenho para fins de gerência de pavimentos. A utilização de abordagens empíricas para determinar os efeitos das cargas do tráfego nas estruturas de pavimentos, datadas dos anos 1960, apresentam sérias limitações, pois seus resultados são válidos somente para os mesmos, ou muito similares, fatores intervenientes que prevaleciam quando do seu desenvolvimento. Os fatores relativos às solicitações do tráfego e às características dos veículos (tipo de eixo, tipo de rodagem, pressão de enchimento dos pneus e tipo de suspensão) são bem diferentes, atualmente, daquelas existentes há 50 anos. Tendo em vista que os modelos de desempenho são importantes ferramentas dos sistemas de gerência de pavimentos (SGP) para prever a evolução da condição ao longo do tempo e/ou tráfego acumulado e, portanto, dependentes de uma consistente caracterização do tráfego, o objetivo desta pesquisa foi analisar os efeitos da caracterização do tráfego sobre o desempenho dos pavimentos, a partir da geração de modelos estatísticos baseados no conceito proposto pelo método da AASHTO 2002, de espectros de carga por eixo dos veículos comerciais de carga, comparando-os com o conceito de equivalência de carga, desenvolvido a partir do AASHO Road Test na década de 1950. Dados de pesagens realizadas no ano de 2008 no Posto de Pesagem de Veículos da SP-160 Rodovia dos Imigrantes, km 28, pista Sul, foram utilizados para o desenvolvimento dos espectros de carga e posterior modelagem. Testes estatísticos e práticos foram realizados para determinar a variabilidade mensal dos Fatores de Veículos (FV) em relação ao valor médio do ano de 2008. Apesar da análise estatística com a aplicação do teste Kolmogorov-Smirnov (K-S) ter apresentado diferenças significativas entre os espectros mensais e anuais, a variação observada nos fatores de tráfego não resultou em diferenças práticas na espessura final do pavimento. Os modelos estatísticos foram desenvolvidos separadamente para cada classe de veículo e de eixos que o compunha, tendo sido usadas distribuições de probabilidade Log-normal e Weibull para modelar os espectros de carga. Os parâmetros dos modelos foram obtidos através do método dos mínimos quadrados, complementado com a realização de testes K-S e Qui-quadrado, destacando-se a obtenção de coeficientes de determinação (R2) superiores a 0,90. A comparação entre os resultados previstos pelos modelos e os dados originais, feita tanto pela abordagem empírica como empírico-mecanística, com uso dos programas computacionais ELSYM5 e MEPDG, evidencia o modelo Weibull como o mais indicado para aplicação em rodovias brasileiras com características de tráfego semelhantes às da Rodovia dos Imigrantes. / The characterization of traffic loads is of great importance for pavement design, as well as for the measurement of performance in a pavement management system. The use of empirical approaches to determine the effects of traffic load on pavement structures, dating from the 1960\'s, presents serious limitations, since its results are just valid for the same or very similar intervening factors that prevailed at the time of its development. The traffic load factors and vehicle characteristics (axle type, tire type, tire inflation pressure, and suspension type) are quite different today from those existing 50 years ago. Given that the performance models are important tools of pavement management systems (PMS) to predict the evolution of pavement condition over time and/or accumulated traffic and therefore dependent on a consistent characterization of the traffic, the objective of this research was to analyze the effects of traffic characteristics on pavement performance through the generation of statistical models based on the concept proposed by the AASHTO 2002 method, axle load spectra of commercial vehicles, comparing them with the concept of load equivalence factor, developed through the AASHO Road Test in the 1950s. Data collected in 2008 in a weighing station located on Immigrant Highway - SP-160, km 28, southern runway, were used for the development of load spectra and subsequent modeling. Practical and statistical tests were performed to determine the variability of monthly vehicle-factors (FV) to the mean value for the year 2008. Despite the statistical analysis, performed by applying the Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS) test, have shown significant differences between the monthly and annual spectra variation, there were not practical differences in the final thickness of the pavement associated to changes in vehicle-factors. Statistical models were developed for each vehicle class and for its axles, having been used Log-normal and Weibull probability distributions to model the load spectra. The model parameters were obtained from the method of least squares, complemented by the KS and chi-square tests, being important to mention that the coefficients of determination (R2) were greater than 0.90. The comparison between the results predicted by the models and the original data, made either by empirical and empiricalmechanistic approaches, with use of computer programs ELSYM5 and MEPDG, shows that the Weibull model is the most suitable for application in Brazilian highways with similar traffic characteristics to the Immigrants Highway.

Uma nova abordagem de sistema de gerência de pavimentos ferroviários é exposta nesta tese. O objetivo principal da pesquisa foi o desenvolvimento de um sistema de gerência em nível de rede e análises do custo do ciclo de vida em nível de projeto, adotando como estudo de caso a Estrada de Ferro Vitória Minas. A revisão bibliográfica apresenta modelos de avaliação da qualidade geométrica e estrutural no Brasil e no mundo. O desenvolvimento iniciou-se com a composição do sistema de gerência em nível de rede utilizando um inventário do trecho em estudo, a subdivisão dessa via em segmentos homogêneos de comprimento variável de acordo com a geometria (curva e tangente), e a aplicação de seis códigos: (i) classe de via; (ii) inventário da estrutura do pavimento com base no tipo de dormente; (iii) geometria com a definição da metodologia de avaliação da qualidade geométrica, propondo um índice que aplica o desvio padrão dos parâmetros geométricos (bitola, empeno, alinhamento e nivelamento transversal), a contagem de exceções e os respectivos limites de alerta, intervenção e segurança; (iv) superfície pela análise do desgaste do trilho e defeitos superficiais; (v) segurança pelo coeficiente de atrito; e (vi) capacidade estrutural com a aplicação do módulo de via parametrizado pelo carro controle. A partir dos seis códigos, foi possível categorizar a estratégia de manutenção aplicável e, em nível de projeto, foram analisadas as degradações do lastro e do desgaste do trilho, com definições de equações de predição, o que permitiu simular o custo do ciclo de vida das estratégias. Por fim, para verificar a viabilidade técnica da estratégia de manutenção apontada, foram estudadas as tensões no topo do lastro e do subleito e ainda o módulo de via por retro análise das deflexões medidas da via permanente em duas seções da EFVM. / A new approach to the railroad track management system is presented in this thesis. The main objective of the research was the development of a network management system and life cycle cost analysis in a project level, adopting as a case study of the Estrada de Ferro Vitoria Minas. The bibliographic review has exposed geometric and structural track quality evaluation models in Brazil and in the world. The development began with the composition of the network management system using an inventory of the track under study, the subdivision of the railway into homogeneous segments of variable lengths depending on the geometry (curve and tangent), and the application of six codes: (i) class, (ii) pavement structure inventory based on tie type, (iii) geometry with definition of quality assessment methodology proposing an index that applies the exception counting and the standard deviation of the parameters - cross level, warp, alignment and gauge - and safety, alarm and intervention limits, (iv) surface by analysis of rail wear and rail surface defects, (v) safety by friction coefficient, and (vi) structural capacity with the application of the track modulus parameterized by the track geometry car. From the six codes, it was possible to categorize the applicable maintenance strategy at a project level, create prediction equations of the ballast and the rail wear degradation and simulate life cycle cost of the strategies. In order to verify the technical feasibility of the mentioned maintenance strategy, it was measured the stress at the top of the ballast and subgrade and the track modulus by retroanalysis deflections in two sections of the EFVM.

Mechanistic-Empirical  (M-E)  pavement  design  procedures  are  composed  of  a  reliable  response model to estimate the state of stress in the pavement and distress models in order to predict the different types of pavement distresses due to the prevailing traffic and environmental conditions. One of the main objectives of this study was to develop a response model based on multilayer elastic  theory   (MLET)  with  improved  computational  performance  by   optimizing  the   time consuming parts of the MLET processes. A comprehensive comparison of the developed program with  two  widely  used  programs  demonstrated  excellent  agreement  and  improved  computational performance.  Moreover,  the  program  was  extended  to  incorporate  the  viscoelastic  behaviour  of bituminous materials through elastic-viscoelastic correspondence principle. A procedure based on collocation of linear viscoelastic (LVE) solutions at selected key time durations was also proposed that improved the computational performance for LVE analysis of stationary and moving loads. A comparison  of  the  LVE  responses  with  measurements  from  accelerated  pavement  testing  (APT) revealed a good agreement. Furthermore the developed response model was employed to evaluate permanent deformation models  for  bound  and  unbound  granular  materials  (UGMs)  using  full  scale  APTs.  The  M-E Pavement  Design  Guide  (MEPDG)  model  for  UGMs  and  two  relatively  new  models  were evaluated  to  model  the  permanent  deformation  in  UGMs.  Moreover,  for  bound  materials,  the simplified  form  of  the  MEPDG  model  for  bituminous  bound  layers  was  also  evaluated.  The measured  and  predicted  permanent  deformations  were  in  general  in  good  agreement,  with  only small discrepancies between the models. Finally, as heavy traffic loading is one of the main factors affecting the performance of flexible pavement, three types of characterizations for heavy traffic axle load spectrum for M-E analysis and design of pavement structures were evaluated. The study recommended an improved approach that enhanced the accuracy and computational performance. / <p>QC 20140512</p>

O comportamento mecânico do subleito tem influência determinante no desempenho das estruturas de pavimento. Porém, muitas vezes, os estudos realizados para elaboração de projetos são simplistas e não levam em conta as variações de comportamento mecânico que podem ocorrer, seja por fatores construtivos, seja ambientais, como umidade, durante o período de operação. Neste sentido, métodos de dimensionamento mecanicistas-empíricos de estruturas de pavimentos empregam modelos de comportamento das diversas camadas da estrutura e do subleito, sendo alvos de constantes revisões para recalibração destes modelos, de modo que se aproximem mais da realidade do comportamento em serviço. As calibrações dos modelos são necessárias para aumentar a confiabilidade do dimensionamento de modo a garantir pavimentos mais duráveis, e para otimizar custos de execução e de manutenção ao longo da vida útil das estruturas. Neste contexto o presente trabalho propõe uma metodologia para compreender as propriedades dos solos do subleito e de suas variações, estabelecendo um programa de ensaios de campo e de laboratório, cadastramento, processamento e combinação de resultados de propriedades físicas e mecânicas de solos de subleitos de pavimentos de rodovias existentes. O objetivo final é estabelecer parâmetros de deformabilidade elástica de solos do subleito e sua variabilidade para auxiliar no dimensionamento de novas estruturas de pavimentos e reabilitação das antigas. O trabalho utiliza estudos de casos de pavimentos rodoviários em operação. O primeiro caso foi base para o estabelecimento metodológico de estudo desejável do subleito de um pavimento existente, concebendo modelos de previsão de comportamento resiliente do subleito para uso em futuros projetos de restauração deste pavimento ou para novos projetos em locais com similaridade de ocorrência de solos. Empregando a metodologia estabelecida no primeiro caso, fez-se uma busca minuciosa de dados em vários documentos existentes sobre pavimentos rodoviários de concessionárias do Estado de São Paulo, concebendo-se um banco de dados para análise do subleito destes pavimentos, de modo a ampliar a gama de solos pesquisados. Com resultados de caracterização de solos em laboratório e de deflectometria em campo, além de dados de localização dos pontos estudados em mapas geológicos e pedológicos, dados de precipitação, de terraplenagem, entre outros, pôde-se analisar os dados e identificar a influência de cada elemento na variação do módulo de resiliência dos solos de fundação de pavimentos em serviço. O banco de dados de ensaios laboratoriais de solos de subleito contou com um total de 3.894 registros e de ensaios não destrutivos deflectométricos de campo com um total de 169.525 registros (dados históricos de nove rodovias estaduais diferentes). Dentre as principais conclusões, verificou-se que grande parte dos modelos de correlações existentes na literatura entre parâmetros de propriedades físicas e de resistência (como CBR) de solos com o módulo de resiliência possui aplicação muito restrita, inviabilizando sua aplicação de forma indiscriminada em locais distintos daqueles onde foram obtidas as correlações. Além disso, verificou-se que o módulo de resiliência do subleito em campo apresenta variações de grande magnitude e, portanto, é de difícil previsão, requerendo acumulação de dados históricos, bem como de um cadastro adicional de maior gama de informações. Recomenda-se que maiores quantidades de ensaios sejam realizadas e que permitam verificação, ou dupla checagem, para validação, bem como para futuramente ser possível o estabelecimento de modelos matemáticos mais confiáveis. Nos estudos, foi possível estabelecer parâmetros estatísticos que podem ser utilizados tanto em métodos de dimensionamento vigentes ou novos, como naquelas que consideram as variações do módulo de resiliência do subleito para determinação do risco de falha, ou da confiabilidade das estruturas. / Subgrade mechanical behavior has a determining influence on the performance of pavement structures. However, often, the studies carried out for project designs are simplistic and do not take into account the variations that can occur in the mechanical behavior, whether by constructive factors or environmental ones, such as the moisture content during the operation period. Thus, mechanical-empirical design methods of pavement structures employ performance models of the many layers of the structure and of the subgrade, being targets of constant revisions for adjustment of these models so that they come closer to reality in operation behavior. Model adjustments are necessary to increase design reliability to ensure more durable pavements and to optimize execution and maintenance costs during the structure life. In this context, the present work proposes a methodology to understand the subgrade soil properties and their variations, establishing a program of field and laboratory tests, registration, processing and combination of results of physical and mechanical properties of subgrade soils of existing highway pavements. The final objective is to establish parameters of the subgrade soil elastic deformability and their variability to assist in the design of new pavement structures and in the rehabilitation of old ones. This work uses case studies of road pavements in operation. The first case was the basis for the methodological establishment of a desirable study of the subgrade of an existing pavement, designing predictive models of the subgrade resilient behavior for use in future rehabilitation projects of this pavement or for new projects in places with a similar occurrence of soils. By using the methodology established in the first case, a thorough data search was carried out in several existing documents on road pavements of concessionaires in the State of São Paulo, and a database was prepared to analyze the subgrade of such pavements in order to expand the range of soils studied. With the results of soil characterization in the laboratory and by field deflections, in addition to location data of the points studied in geological and pedological maps, precipitation and earthwork data, among others, it was possible to analyze the data and identify the influences of each element on the variation of the subgrade resilient modulus of the pavements in operation. The database from laboratory tests of subgrade soils covered a total of 3,894 registers and of non-destructive deflectometric field tests - a total of 169,525 registers (historical data on nine different state highways). Among the main conclusions, it was verified that most of the correlation models existing in the literature between parameters of physical and mechanical strength properties (like the CBR) of soils with the resilient moduli have very restricted application, making it impossible to apply them indiscriminately in places other than those where the correlations were obtained. In addition, it was verified that the resilient modulus of the subbase in situ presents variations of great magnitude and, therefore, it is difficult to make predictions. Lots of historical data are required, as well as additional registers of a greater range of information. Therefore, it is recommended that a larger number of tests be performed in order to allow for checking and double-checking for validation as well as the possibility of a future establishment of more reliable mathematical models. In the studies, it was possible to establish statistical parameters that can be used both in current and in new design methods, like in those that consider variations of the subgrade resilient moduli to determine the risk of failure or of the reliability of structures.

Uma nova abordagem de sistema de gerência de pavimentos ferroviários é exposta nesta tese. O objetivo principal da pesquisa foi o desenvolvimento de um sistema de gerência em nível de rede e análises do custo do ciclo de vida em nível de projeto, adotando como estudo de caso a Estrada de Ferro Vitória Minas. A revisão bibliográfica apresenta modelos de avaliação da qualidade geométrica e estrutural no Brasil e no mundo. O desenvolvimento iniciou-se com a composição do sistema de gerência em nível de rede utilizando um inventário do trecho em estudo, a subdivisão dessa via em segmentos homogêneos de comprimento variável de acordo com a geometria (curva e tangente), e a aplicação de seis códigos: (i) classe de via; (ii) inventário da estrutura do pavimento com base no tipo de dormente; (iii) geometria com a definição da metodologia de avaliação da qualidade geométrica, propondo um índice que aplica o desvio padrão dos parâmetros geométricos (bitola, empeno, alinhamento e nivelamento transversal), a contagem de exceções e os respectivos limites de alerta, intervenção e segurança; (iv) superfície pela análise do desgaste do trilho e defeitos superficiais; (v) segurança pelo coeficiente de atrito; e (vi) capacidade estrutural com a aplicação do módulo de via parametrizado pelo carro controle. A partir dos seis códigos, foi possível categorizar a estratégia de manutenção aplicável e, em nível de projeto, foram analisadas as degradações do lastro e do desgaste do trilho, com definições de equações de predição, o que permitiu simular o custo do ciclo de vida das estratégias. Por fim, para verificar a viabilidade técnica da estratégia de manutenção apontada, foram estudadas as tensões no topo do lastro e do subleito e ainda o módulo de via por retro análise das deflexões medidas da via permanente em duas seções da EFVM. / A new approach to the railroad track management system is presented in this thesis. The main objective of the research was the development of a network management system and life cycle cost analysis in a project level, adopting as a case study of the Estrada de Ferro Vitoria Minas. The bibliographic review has exposed geometric and structural track quality evaluation models in Brazil and in the world. The development began with the composition of the network management system using an inventory of the track under study, the subdivision of the railway into homogeneous segments of variable lengths depending on the geometry (curve and tangent), and the application of six codes: (i) class, (ii) pavement structure inventory based on tie type, (iii) geometry with definition of quality assessment methodology proposing an index that applies the exception counting and the standard deviation of the parameters - cross level, warp, alignment and gauge - and safety, alarm and intervention limits, (iv) surface by analysis of rail wear and rail surface defects, (v) safety by friction coefficient, and (vi) structural capacity with the application of the track modulus parameterized by the track geometry car. From the six codes, it was possible to categorize the applicable maintenance strategy at a project level, create prediction equations of the ballast and the rail wear degradation and simulate life cycle cost of the strategies. In order to verify the technical feasibility of the mentioned maintenance strategy, it was measured the stress at the top of the ballast and subgrade and the track modulus by retroanalysis deflections in two sections of the EFVM.

A caracterização das cargas do tráfego é de grande importância para o dimensionamento de pavimentos, bem como para a quantificação do desempenho para fins de gerência de pavimentos. A utilização de abordagens empíricas para determinar os efeitos das cargas do tráfego nas estruturas de pavimentos, datadas dos anos 1960, apresentam sérias limitações, pois seus resultados são válidos somente para os mesmos, ou muito similares, fatores intervenientes que prevaleciam quando do seu desenvolvimento. Os fatores relativos às solicitações do tráfego e às características dos veículos (tipo de eixo, tipo de rodagem, pressão de enchimento dos pneus e tipo de suspensão) são bem diferentes, atualmente, daquelas existentes há 50 anos. Tendo em vista que os modelos de desempenho são importantes ferramentas dos sistemas de gerência de pavimentos (SGP) para prever a evolução da condição ao longo do tempo e/ou tráfego acumulado e, portanto, dependentes de uma consistente caracterização do tráfego, o objetivo desta pesquisa foi analisar os efeitos da caracterização do tráfego sobre o desempenho dos pavimentos, a partir da geração de modelos estatísticos baseados no conceito proposto pelo método da AASHTO 2002, de espectros de carga por eixo dos veículos comerciais de carga, comparando-os com o conceito de equivalência de carga, desenvolvido a partir do AASHO Road Test na década de 1950. Dados de pesagens realizadas no ano de 2008 no Posto de Pesagem de Veículos da SP-160 Rodovia dos Imigrantes, km 28, pista Sul, foram utilizados para o desenvolvimento dos espectros de carga e posterior modelagem. Testes estatísticos e práticos foram realizados para determinar a variabilidade mensal dos Fatores de Veículos (FV) em relação ao valor médio do ano de 2008. Apesar da análise estatística com a aplicação do teste Kolmogorov-Smirnov (K-S) ter apresentado diferenças significativas entre os espectros mensais e anuais, a variação observada nos fatores de tráfego não resultou em diferenças práticas na espessura final do pavimento. Os modelos estatísticos foram desenvolvidos separadamente para cada classe de veículo e de eixos que o compunha, tendo sido usadas distribuições de probabilidade Log-normal e Weibull para modelar os espectros de carga. Os parâmetros dos modelos foram obtidos através do método dos mínimos quadrados, complementado com a realização de testes K-S e Qui-quadrado, destacando-se a obtenção de coeficientes de determinação (R2) superiores a 0,90. A comparação entre os resultados previstos pelos modelos e os dados originais, feita tanto pela abordagem empírica como empírico-mecanística, com uso dos programas computacionais ELSYM5 e MEPDG, evidencia o modelo Weibull como o mais indicado para aplicação em rodovias brasileiras com características de tráfego semelhantes às da Rodovia dos Imigrantes. / The characterization of traffic loads is of great importance for pavement design, as well as for the measurement of performance in a pavement management system. The use of empirical approaches to determine the effects of traffic load on pavement structures, dating from the 1960\'s, presents serious limitations, since its results are just valid for the same or very similar intervening factors that prevailed at the time of its development. The traffic load factors and vehicle characteristics (axle type, tire type, tire inflation pressure, and suspension type) are quite different today from those existing 50 years ago. Given that the performance models are important tools of pavement management systems (PMS) to predict the evolution of pavement condition over time and/or accumulated traffic and therefore dependent on a consistent characterization of the traffic, the objective of this research was to analyze the effects of traffic characteristics on pavement performance through the generation of statistical models based on the concept proposed by the AASHTO 2002 method, axle load spectra of commercial vehicles, comparing them with the concept of load equivalence factor, developed through the AASHO Road Test in the 1950s. Data collected in 2008 in a weighing station located on Immigrant Highway - SP-160, km 28, southern runway, were used for the development of load spectra and subsequent modeling. Practical and statistical tests were performed to determine the variability of monthly vehicle-factors (FV) to the mean value for the year 2008. Despite the statistical analysis, performed by applying the Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS) test, have shown significant differences between the monthly and annual spectra variation, there were not practical differences in the final thickness of the pavement associated to changes in vehicle-factors. Statistical models were developed for each vehicle class and for its axles, having been used Log-normal and Weibull probability distributions to model the load spectra. The model parameters were obtained from the method of least squares, complemented by the KS and chi-square tests, being important to mention that the coefficients of determination (R2) were greater than 0.90. The comparison between the results predicted by the models and the original data, made either by empirical and empiricalmechanistic approaches, with use of computer programs ELSYM5 and MEPDG, shows that the Weibull model is the most suitable for application in Brazilian highways with similar traffic characteristics to the Immigrants Highway.

<p>Highway infrastructure, including roads/pavements, contributes significantly to a country’s economic growth, quality of life improvement, and negative environmental impacts. Hence, highway agencies strive to make efficient and effective use of their limited funding to maintain their pavement infrastructure in good structural and functional conditions. This necessitates predicting pavement performance and scheduling maintenance interventions accurately and reliably by using appropriate performance modeling and maintenance optimization methodologies, while considering the impact of influential variables and the uncertainty inherent in pavement condition data.</p> <p> </p> <p>Despite the enormous research efforts toward stochastic pavement performance modeling and maintenance optimization, several research gaps still exist. Prior research has not provided a synthesis of Markovian models and their associated methodologies that could assist researchers and highway agencies in selecting the Markov methodology that is appropriate for use with the data available to the agency. In addition, past Markovian pavement performance models did not adequately account for the marginal effects of the preventive maintenance (PM) treatments due to the lack of historical PM data, resulting in potentially unreliable models. The primary components of a Markov model are the transition probability matrix, number of condition states (NCS), and length of duty cycle (LDC). Previous Markovian pavement performance models were developed using NCS and LDC based on data availability, pavement condition indicator and data collection frequency. However, the selection of NCS and LDC should also be based on producing pavement performance models with high levels of prediction accuracy. Prior stochastic pavement maintenance optimization models account for the uncertainty of the budget allocated to pavement preservation at the network level. Nevertheless, variables such as pavement condition deterioration and improvement that are also associated with uncertainty, were not included in stochastic optimization models due to the expected large size of the optimization problem.</p><p>The overarching goal of this dissertation is to contribute to filling these research gaps with a view to improving pavement management systems, helping to predict probabilistic pavement performance and schedule pavement preventive maintenance accurately and reliably. This study reviews Markovian pavement performance models using various Markov methodologies and transition probabilities estimation methods, presents a critical analysis of the different aspects of Markovian models as applied in the literature, reveals gaps in knowledge, and offers suggestions for bridging those gaps. This dissertation develops a decision tree which could be used by researchers and highway agencies to select appropriate Markov methodologies to model pavement performance under different conditions of data availability. The lack of consideration of pavement PM impacts into probabilistic pavement performance models due to absence of historical PM data may result in erroneous and often biased pavement condition predictions, leading to non-optimal pavement maintenance decisions. Hence, this research introduces and validates a hybrid approach to incorporate the impact of PM into probabilistic pavement performance models when historical PM data are limited or absent. The types of PM treatments and their times of application are estimated using two approaches: (1) Analysis of the state of practice of pavement maintenance through literature and expert surveys, and (2) Detection of PM times from probabilistic pavement performance curves. Using a newly developed optimization algorithm, the estimated times and types of PM treatments are integrated into pavement condition data. A non-homogeneous Markovian pavement performance model is developed by estimating the transition probabilities of pavement condition using the ordered-probit method. The developed hybrid approach and performance models are validated using cross-validation with out-of-sample data and through surveys of subject matter experts in pavement engineering and management. The results show that the hybrid approach and models developed can predict probabilistic pavement condition incorporating PM effects with an accuracy of 87%.</p><p>The key Markov chain methodologies, namely, homogeneous, staged-homogeneous, non-homogeneous, semi- and hidden Markov, have been used to develop stochastic pavement performance models. This dissertation hypothesizes that the NCS and LDC significantly influence the prediction accuracy of Markov models and that the nature of such influence varies across the different Markov methodologies. As such, this study develops and compares the Markovian pavement performance models using empirical data and investigates the sensitivity of Markovian model prediction accuracy to the NCS and LDC. The results indicate that the semi-Markov is generally statistically superior to the homogeneous and staged-homogeneous Markov (except in a few cases of NCS and LDC combinations) and that Markovian model prediction accuracy is significantly sensitive to the NCS and LDC: an increase in NCS improves the prediction accuracy until a certain NCS threshold after which the accuracy decreases, plausibly due to data overfitting. In addition, an increase in LDC improves the prediction accuracy when the NCS is small.</p><p>Scheduling pavement maintenance at road network level without considering the uncertainty of pavement condition deterioration and improvement over the long-term (typically, pavement design life) likely results in mistiming maintenance applications and less optimal decisions. Hence, this dissertation develops stochastic pavement maintenance optimization models that account for the uncertainty of pavement condition deterioration and improvement as well as the budget constraint. The objectives of the stochastic optimization models are to minimize the overall deterioration of road network condition while minimizing the total maintenance cost of the road network over a 20-year planning horizon (typical pavement design life). Multi-objective Genetic Algorithm (MOGA) is used because of its robust search capabilities, which lead to global optimal solutions. In order to reduce the number of combinations of solutions of stochastic MOGA models, three approaches are proposed and applied: (1) using PM treatments that are most commonly used by highway agencies, (2) clustering pavement sections based on their ages, and (3) creating a filtering constraint that applies a rest period after treatment applications. The results of the stochastic MOGA models show that the Pareto optimal solutions change significantly when the uncertainty of pavement condition deterioration and improvement is included.</p>