TITLE: The Impact of Institutions on Economic Growth.MAJOR PROFESSOR: Dr. Wanki Moon. Based on the cross-sectional data, my thesis examined the relationship between the Economic Freedom Indices and per capita GDP. This thesis demonstrates that the rule of law category, which includes the property right variable, is the category that most affects per capita GDP which demonstrates the importance of the institution. Data from 184 countries published by Heritage Foundation and the Wall Street Journal were used. I analyzed the data using the OLS regression model to explore the relationship between Economic Freedom index and per capita GDP. The first model I analyzed is simple regression which regress economic freedom indices on per capita GDP. The result of the regression showed that all variables are significant, except the Tax Burden and Fiscal Health variables which were insignificant. The Government Spending and Tax Burden are the only variables have a negative effect on per capita GDP. The second model I analyzed was multiple regression for each category’s components, then I repeated the model four times, since there are four different categories with three components each. It is important to analyze each category by itself to explore what the relationship is between the component in each category and per capita GDP. The results of regression on each category including the three different components show that government integrity (from the rule of law category), government spending and fiscal health (from government size category), business freedom (from regulatory efficiency category), trade freedom and financial freedom (from open market category) are significant variables and affected per capita GDP positively except for government spending which has a negative effect on per capita GDP. On the other hand, the variables which are insignificant like property right from the rule of law category, monetary freedom from regulatory efficiency category have a positive effect on per capita GDP. But the Judicial Efficiency from the rule of law category, tax burden from government size, labor freedom from regulatory efficiency category and investment freedom from open markets are insignificant and have a negative effect on per capita GDP. However, when we look to the category as a group, we find that all four grouped index freedom is significant at 99% significant level. R-square is highest for rule of law category (68%) and very low for government size (16.7%). The third model I used includes four categories by computing the average of each category’s components, we found, by looking at R-square, that 65.4% of per capita GDP is explained by these four categories. Surprisingly, I found that the rule of law category is the only significant variable with positive effect on GDP per capita. On the other hand, Government Size, and Regulatory Efficiency are insignificant variables and have a negative effect on per capita GDP. Open Market category is insignificant variable and has a positive effect on per capita GDP.

Health is one of the most important components of human capital. It can affect production level of a country through various channels. In this study the causal relationship of health and real GDP per capita income in 5 low income countries of Africa south of the Sahara is analyzed using granger causality test. Unbalanced panel data set during the year 1970 to 2009 is used. Life expectancy and mortality rate are used as a proxy for health. The result revealed that mortality rate has a significant and negative impact on real per capita income. The Granger causality test showed, real GDP per capita and mortality rate have causal or bidirectional relationship. On the other hand, real GDP per capita does not granger cause life expectancy, but life expectancy granger cause real GDP per capita. The comparative descriptive analysis of the health indicators in different income groups of the world also showed that, higher income countries are better off in their health status.

No description available.

Master of Agribusiness / Department of Agricultural Economics / John A. Fox / Child mortality is defined as the death of children under five years old. Worldwide, child mortality was about 8.1 million in 2009, of which over fifty percent is related to diarrhea, pneumonia and malaria. Food and water borne pathogens are an important cause of deaths related to diarrhea and pneumonia. Illiterate or semi-literate populations are often slow to adopt food and water safety standards. Practices such as washing of food in sewage water, which would repulse most westerners might be considered normal in some parts of the world. Understanding some of the basic science underlying food safety standards is important for the farm worker in California, the villager in Africa and the child in Afghanistan. Ultimately, food safety practices in production can affect the consumer of agricultural products no matter where they are in the world, and inadequate food safety standards can affect the producer as a result of diminished consumer confidence in their product, or lack of access to export markets. In the instance of food contamination, young children and the elderly are typically most at risk. Perhaps the most sobering consequence of inadequate food safety standards is child mortality. This thesis uses a regression model to investigate determinants of the level of child mortality. We find that income distribution and levels of tertiary education, particularly for females, are significantly correlated with child mortality rates. Estimates suggest that a one percent increase in tertiary education in the female workforce is associated with a reduction of almost seven percent in the child mortality rate in countries where the rate of female tertiary education is below fifteen percent.

This thesis consists of a summary and four self-contained papers. Paper [I] Following the 1987 report by The World Commission on Environment and Development, the genuine saving has come to play a key role in the context of sustainable development, and the World Bank regularly publishes numbers for genuine saving on a national basis. However, these numbers are typically calculated as if the tax system is non-distortionary. This paper presents an analogue to genuine saving in a second best economy, where the government raises revenue by means of distortionary taxation. We show how the social cost of public debt, which depends on the marginal excess burden, ought to be reflected in the genuine saving. We also illustrate by presenting calculations for Greece, Japan, Portugal, U.K., U.S. and OECD average, showing that the numbers published by the World Bank are likely to be biased and may even give incorrect information as to whether the economy is locally sustainable. Paper [II] This paper examines the relationships among per capita CO2 emissions, per capita GDP and international trade based on panel data spanning the period 1960-2008 for 150 countries. A distinction is also made between OECD and Non-OECD countries to capture the differences of this relationship between developed and developing economies. We apply panel unit root and cointegration tests, and estimate a panel error correction model. The results from the error correction model suggest that there are long-term relationships between the variables for the whole sample and for Non-OECD countries. Finally, Granger causality tests show that there is bi-directional short-term causality between per capita GDP and international trade for the whole sample and between per capita GDP and CO2 emissions for OECD countries. Paper [III] Fundamental questions in economics are why some regions are richer than others, why their growth rates differ, whether their growth rates tend to converge, and what key factors contribute to explain economic growth. This paper deals with the average income growth, net migration, and changes in unemployment rates at the municipal level in Sweden. The aim is to explore in depth the effects of possible underlying determinants with a particular focus on local policy variables. The analysis is based on a three-equation model. Our results show, among other things, that increases in the local public expenditure and income taxe rate have negative effects on subsequent income income growth. In addition, the results show conditional convergence, i.e. that the average income among the municipal residents tends to grow more rapidly in relatively poor local jurisdictions than in initially “richer” jurisdictions, conditional on the other explanatory variables. Paper [IV] This paper explores the relationship between income growth and income inequality using data at the municipal level in Sweden for the period 1992-2007. We estimate a fixed effects panel data growth model, where the within-municipality income inequality is one of the explanatory variables. Different inequality measures (Gini coefficient, top income shares, and measures of inequality in the lower and upper part of the income distribution) are examined. We find a positive and significant relationship between income growth and income inequality measured as the Gini coefficient and top income shares, respectively. In addition, while inequality in the upper part of the income distribution is positively associated with the income growth rate, inequality in the lower part of the income distribution seems to be negatively related to the income growth. Our findings also suggest that increased income inequality enhances growth more in municipalities with a high level of average income than in municipalities with a low level of average income.

This thesis consists of a summary and four self-contained papers. Paper [I] Following the 1987 report by The World Commission on Environment and Development, the genuine saving has come to play a key role in the context of sustainable development, and the World Bank regularly publishes numbers for genuine saving on a national basis. However, these numbers are typically calculated as if the tax system is non-distortionary. This paper presents an analogue to genuine saving in a second best economy, where the government raises revenue by means of distortionary taxation. We show how the social cost of public debt, which depends on the marginal excess burden, ought to be reflected in the genuine saving. We also illustrate by presenting calculations for Greece, Japan, Portugal, U.K., U.S. and OECD average, showing that the numbers published by the World Bank are likely to be biased and may even give incorrect information as to whether the economy is locally sustainable. Paper [II] This paper examines the relationships among per capita CO2 emissions, per capita GDP and international trade based on panel data spanning the period 1960-2008 for 150 countries. A distinction is also made between OECD and Non-OECD countries to capture the differences of this relationship between developed and developing economies. We apply panel unit root and cointegration tests, and estimate a panel error correction model. The results from the error correction model suggest that there are long-term relationships between the variables for the whole sample and for Non-OECD countries. Finally, Granger causality tests show that there is bi-directional short-term causality between per capita GDP and international trade for the whole sample and between per capita GDP and CO2 emissions for OECD countries. Paper [III] Fundamental questions in economics are why some regions are richer than others, why their growth rates differ, whether their growth rates tend to converge, and what key factors contribute to explain economic growth. This paper deals with the average income growth, net migration, and changes in unemployment rates at the municipal level in Sweden. The aim is to explore in depth the effects of possible underlying determinants with a particular focus on local policy variables. The analysis is based on a three-equation model. Our results show, among other things, that increases in the local public expenditure and income taxe rate have negative effects on subsequent income income growth. In addition, the results show conditional convergence, i.e. that the average income among the municipal residents tends to grow more rapidly in relatively poor local jurisdictions than in initially “richer” jurisdictions, conditional on the other explanatory variables. Paper [IV] This paper explores the relationship between income growth and income inequality using data at the municipal level in Sweden for the period 1992-2007. We estimate a fixed effects panel data growth model, where the within-municipality income inequality is one of the explanatory variables. Different inequality measures (Gini coefficient, top income shares, and measures of inequality in the lower and upper part of the income distribution) are examined. We find a positive and significant relationship between income growth and income inequality measured as the Gini coefficient and top income shares, respectively. In addition, while inequality in the upper part of the income distribution is positively associated with the income growth rate, inequality in the lower part of the income distribution seems to be negatively related to the income growth. Our findings also suggest that increased income inequality enhances growth more in municipalities with a high level of average income than in municipalities with a low level of average income.

Estimating the Euro effect with Synthetic Control Method for Eastern Europe Abstract This thesis estimates the effect of Euro adoption on newest Eurozone members using synthetic control method. The effect is estimated on income per capita and GDP growth. Estimates indicate overall indecisive effect for Slovakia and Malta, neutral effect for Estonia and negative effect for Slovenia and Cyprus. The cost of Euro for Cyprus is estimated to be as high as 1/3 of GDP per capita. In some cases the direction of the effect changed before and after the financial crisis. The quality of inference suffers from low number of observations. Methodological assumptions are discussed, concluding that quality of Eastern European time series likely causes substantial bias in the results.

nÃo hà / A tese intitulada âTrÃs Ensaios em Macroeconometriaâ à composta de trÃs capÃtulos. O primeiro capÃtulo aplica um modelo em painel dinÃmico para analisar a convergÃncia da taxa de crescimento do PIB per capita, numa abordagem nÃo linear atravÃs de um efeito threshold para os vinte e seis Estados brasileiros mais o Distrito Federal, durante o perÃodo 1985-2005. Os resultados indicam a existÃncia de dois clubes de convergÃncia, um formado pelos estados que se encontram no regime de baixa renda, formado pelos estados da regiÃo nordeste, norte (com exceÃÃo do estado do Amazonas) e o estado de GoiÃs, enquanto que o outro clube à formado por aqueles que se encontram no regime de alta renda, compostos pelos estados da regiÃo sul e sudeste, mais os estados de Mato Grosso, Mato Grosso do Sul e o Distrito Federal. No segundo capÃtulo aplica-se uma formulaÃÃo de tendÃncias comuns Ãs variÃveis PIB real, taxa de juros SELIC nominal, oferta monetÃria do agregado M1 e taxa de inflaÃÃo IPCA, para extrair uma medida de nÃcleo de inflaÃÃo com caracterÃsticas fowardlooking. ApÃs determinar o nÃcleo de inflaÃÃo para o IPCA, testam-se as condiÃÃes para uma medida de nÃcleo segundo Marques et al. (2003) juntamente com duas outras medidas de nÃcleo fornecidas pelo Banco Central do Brasil. Por Ãltimo testam-se a acurÃcia de previsÃes fora da amostra feitas por essas medidas para o IPCA. Os resultados confirmam que a medida de nÃcleo por tendÃncias comuns tem um bom poder preditivo. O terceiro capÃtulo testa a hipÃtese da paridade do poder de compra (PPP) para o Brasil durante o perÃodo de 1985 a 2008 atravÃs da aplicaÃÃo dos testes de raiz unitÃria em painel com dependÃncia transversal apresentados em Moon e Perron (2004) e Pesaran (2007). Utiliza-se como base de dados o Ãndice de inflaÃÃo INPC para nove regiÃes metropolitanas: Belo Horizonte, BelÃm, Curitiba, Fortaleza, Porto Alegre, Recife, Rio de Janeiro, SÃo Paulo e Salvador. Os resultados mostram mudanÃa de persistÃncia apÃs a implementaÃÃo do Plano Real. Enquanto que no perÃodo de alta inflaÃÃo a hipÃtese de Paridade do Poder de Compra PPP à satisfeita, no perÃodo de estabilizaÃÃo de preÃos a PPP nÃo à satisfeita. Este resultado à fortalecido atravÃs da anÃlise das estatÃsticas descritivas dos dados. / The thesis entitled "TrÃs Ensaios em Macroeconometria" is composed of three chapters. The first chapter applies a dynamic panel model to analyze the convergence rate of growth of GDP per capita, non-linear approach using a threshold effect for the twenty-six Brazilian states plus the Distrito Federal during the period 1985-2005. The results indicate the existence of two convergence clubs, one formed by the states that are in the regime of low income, formed by the Northeast region, north (with the exception of the state of Amazonas) and the state of GoiÃs, while other club consists of those who are in the regime of income, formed by the states of South and Southeast, over the states of Mato Grosso, Mato Grosso do Sul and Distrito Federal. The second chapter presents a formulation of common trends in the variables real GDP, nominal interest rate Selic, money supply of M1 and IPCA inflation rate, to extract a measure of core inflation with features foward-looking. After determining the core inflation for the IPCA, we tested the conditions for a measure of core second Marques et al. (2003) along with two other core measures provided by the Banco Central do Brasil. Finally, we tested the accuracy of forecasts out of sample made by these measures to the IPCA. The results confirm that the measure of core inflation by common trends have a good predictive power. The third chapter tests the hypothesis of purchasing power parity (PPP) in Brazil during the period 1985 to 2008 by applying the unit root tests in panel with cross section dependence presented in Moon and Perron (2004) and Pesaran (2007 ). We tested the index of inflation INPC for nine metropolitan areas: Belo Horizonte, BelÃm, Curitiba, Fortaleza, Porto Alegre, Recife, Rio de Janeiro, SÃo Paulo and Salvador. The results show a change in persistence after the Plano Real. While in the period of high inflation the PPP is satisfied, the period of stabilization of prices to PPP is not satisfied. This result is strengthened by examining the descriptive statistics of the data.

This bachelor’s thesis examines the relationship between economic freedom and political freedom on economic growth. The main purpose of the thesis is to analyze the differences in how these freedom categories affect growth in per capita GDP using two data sets for OECD countries and middle-income countries, respectively. The analysis builds on a cross-national panel set of 72 countries for the period 2000-2019, i.e., 36 countries in each group. The findings show that gross capital formation, foreign direct investment and general government final consumption have had positive and statistically significant effects on economic growth in OECD countries during the above period. There is also a statistically significant and positive relationship between economic freedom and per capita GDP growth among the OECD countries while this was not the case for the degree of political freedom. The results also indicate that economic freedom is positively related to per capita GDP growth in middle-income countries, but this relationship was not statistically significant. Thus, my main conclusions is that there is a positive relationship between economic freedom and per capita GDP growth, at least in the OECD group. However, political freedom does not appear to help explain economic growth rates among middle-income countries. / Denna kandidatuppsats undersöker sambandet mellan ekonomisk frihet, politisk frihet och tillväxten i BNP per capita. Huvudsyftet med denna uppsats är att analysera skillnaderna i hur dessa frihets kategorier påverkar tillväxt i BNP per capita med hjälp av två datamängder för OECD-länder respektive medelinkomstländer. Analysen bygger på en paneldataanalys med 72 länder för tidsperioden 2000–2019, det vill säga 36 länder i vardera grupp. Slutsatserna visar att inhemska bruttoinvesteringar, utländska direktinvesteringar och offentlig konsumtion hade en positiv och statistiskt avgörande effekt på den ekonomiska tillväxten i OECD-länderna under den givna tidsperioden. Det fanns även ett statistiskt signifikant och positivt samband mellan ekonomisk frihet och tillväxt i BNP per capita bland OECD-länderna medan detta inte var fallet för graden av politisk frihet. Resultaten indikerar också att ekonomisk frihet är positivt relaterad till tillväxt i BNP per capita i medelinkomstländer, dock var detta samband inte statistiskt signifikant. Således är mina huvudsakliga slutsatser att det finns ett positivt samband mellan ekonomisk frihet och tillväxt i BNP per capita, åtminstone i OECD gruppen. Men politisk frihet verkar inte hjälpa till att förklara den ekonomiska tillväxttakten i medelinkomstländer.