<p>A central aim in drug development is to ensure that the new drug is efficacious and safe in the intended patient population.</p><p>Mathematical models describing the pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic (PK-PD) properties of a drug are valuable to increase the knowledge about drug effects and disease and can be used to inform decisions. The aim of this thesis was to develop mechanism-based PK-PD-disease models for important safety and efficacy biomarkers used in anti-diabetic drug development. </p><p>Population PK, PK-PD and disease models were developed, based on data from clinical studies in subjects with varying degrees of renal function, non-diabetic subjects with insulin resistance and patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), receiving a peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor (PPAR) α/γ agonist, tesaglitazar.</p><p>The PK model showed that a decreased renal elimination of the metabolite in renally impaired subjects leads to increased levels of metabolite undergoing interconversion and subsequent accumulation of tesaglitazar. Tesaglitazar negatively affects the glomerular filtration rate (GFR), and since renal function affects tesaglitazar exposure, a PK-PD model was developed to simultaneously describe this interrelationship. The model and data showed that all patients had decreases in GFR, which were reversible when discontinuing treatment. </p><p>The PK-PD model described the interplay between fasting plasma glucose (FPG), glycosylated haemoglobin (HbA1c) and haemoglobin in T2DM patients. It provided a mechanistically plausible description of the release and aging of red blood cells (RBC), and the glucose dependent glycosylation of RBC to HbA1c. The PK-PD model for FPG and fasting insulin, incorporating components for β-cell mass, insulin sensitivity and impact of disease and drug treatment, realistically described the complex glucose homeostasis in the heterogeneous patient population. </p><p>The mechanism-based PK, PK-PD and disease models increase the understanding about T2DM and important biomarkers, and can be used to improve decision making in the development of future anti-diabetic drugs. </p>

Chemotherapy, employing single-molecule or multidrug concoctions inspired by the diverse repository of plant chemicals, has been the mainstay of cancer treatment for years. However, isolating single molecules has proven to be expensive along with limited therapeutic window and toxicity. On the other hand, whole foods, while preserving the natural complex balance between their constituent phytochemicals and being non-toxic, have proven to impart better disease-fighting efficacies, thus leading to an increased focus on dietary interventions to both treat and prevent cancer. Owing to the complex interactions between their constituent phytochemicals, several dietary agents have been investigated for their therapeutic and preventive efficacies. However, due to lack of emphasis on confounding factors like bioavailability, absorption, metabolism, and excretion, essentially driven by phytocomplexity, incorporation of whole foods in therapeutic regimen has not been successful. This thesis exemplifies the need to investigate factors associated with the limitations in the current approach with respect to dietary agents. Bioactivity-guided fractionation of sweet potato greens extract (SPGE) led to the identification of ~100-fold more potent fraction in vitro. However, this efficacy could not be translated in vivo. We also studied whole ginger extract (GE) for its in vitro and in vivo prostate tumor growth-inhibitory and apoptosis-inducing effects. In addition, GE proved to be more efficacious as compared to its individual most-active constituents owing to the differences in their pharmacokinetic (PK) and bioavailability measurements. Hence, these studies emphasize the crucial role of synergistic/additive interactions among the constituents of whole foods in successful translation of their therapeutic benefits. Another factor that seeks further attention is the unique cellular mechanisms engaged by these phytochemicals to confer their remarkable effects. Phenolic compounds, the most-abundant of all phytochemicals, are well known for their antioxidant properties and act via reactive oxygen species (ROS)-mediated mechanisms. We however assert the underappreciated xenohormetic prooxidant role of phenolics, where cancer cell death is caused by induction of intolerable levels of ROS. We demonstrated that a Piper betel constituent, hydroxychavicol (HC), mediates cytotoxicity via ROS-induced DNA-damage. This thesis thus provides compelling grounds for future preclinical studies to validate their potential usefulness for cancer management.

<p>In drug development clinical trials are designed to investigate whether a new treatment is safe and has the desired effect on the disease in the target patient population. Categorical endpoints, for example different ranking scales or grading of adverse events, are commonly used to measure effects in the trials. </p><p>Pharmacokinetic/Pharmacodynamic (PK/PD) models are used to describe the plasma concentration of a drug over time and its relationship to the effect studied. The models are utilized both in drug development and in discussions with drug regulating authorities. Methods for incorporation of ordered categorical data in PK/PD models were studied using a non-linear mixed effects modelling approach as implemented in the software NONMEM. The traditionally used proportional odds model was used for analysis of a 6-grade sedation scale in acute stroke patients and for analysis of a T-cell receptor expression in patients with Multiple Sclerosis, where the results also were compared with an analysis of the data on a continuous scale. Modifications of the proportional odds model were developed to enable analysis of a spontaneously reported side-effect and to analyze situations where the scale used is heterogeneous or where the drug affects the different scores in the scale in a non-proportional way. The new models were compared with the proportional odds model and were shown to give better predictive performances in the analyzed situations. </p><p>The results in this thesis show that categorical data obtained in clinical trials with different design and different categorical endpoints successfully can be incorporated in PK/PD models. The models developed can also be applied to analyses of other ordered categorical scales than those presented.</p>

<p>For prevention and treatment of thrombotic diseases with an anticoagulant drug it is important that an adequate dose is given to avoid occurrence or recurrence of thrombosis, without increasing the risk of bleeding and other adverse events to unacceptable levels. The aim of this thesis was to develop mathematical models that describe the dose-concentration (pharmacokinetic) and concentration-response (pharmacodynamic) relationships of direct thrombin inhibitors, in order to estimate optimal dosages for treatment and long-term secondary prevention of venous thromboembolism (VTE).</p><p>Population pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic models were developed, based on data from clinical investigations in healthy volunteers and patients receiving intravenous inogatran, subcutaneous melagatran and/or its oral prodrug ximelagatran. The benefit-risk profiles of different ximelagatran dosages were estimated using clinical utility functions. These functions were based on the probabilities and fatal consequences of thrombosis, bleeding and elevation of the hepatic enzyme alanine aminotransferase (ALAT).</p><p>The studies demonstrate that the pharmacokinetics of melagatran and ximelagatran were predictable and well correlated to renal function. The coagulation marker, activated partial thromboplastin time (APTT), increased non-linearly with increasing thrombin inhibitor plasma concentration. Overall, the systemic melagatran exposure (AUC) and APTT were similarly predictive of thrombosis and bleedings. The identified relationship between the risk of ALAT-elevation and melagatran AUC suggests that the incidence approaches a maximum at high exposures. The estimated clinical utility was favourable compared to placebo in the overall study population and in special subgroups of patients following fixed dosing of ximelagatran for long-term secondary prevention of VTE. Individualized dosing was predicted to add limited clinical benefit in this indication.</p><p>The models developed can be used to support the studied dosage and for selection of alternative dosing strategies that may improve the clinical outcome of ximelagatran treatment. In addition, the models may be extrapolated to aid the dose selection in clinical trials with other direct thrombin inhibitors.</p>

For prevention and treatment of thrombotic diseases with an anticoagulant drug it is important that an adequate dose is given to avoid occurrence or recurrence of thrombosis, without increasing the risk of bleeding and other adverse events to unacceptable levels. The aim of this thesis was to develop mathematical models that describe the dose-concentration (pharmacokinetic) and concentration-response (pharmacodynamic) relationships of direct thrombin inhibitors, in order to estimate optimal dosages for treatment and long-term secondary prevention of venous thromboembolism (VTE). Population pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic models were developed, based on data from clinical investigations in healthy volunteers and patients receiving intravenous inogatran, subcutaneous melagatran and/or its oral prodrug ximelagatran. The benefit-risk profiles of different ximelagatran dosages were estimated using clinical utility functions. These functions were based on the probabilities and fatal consequences of thrombosis, bleeding and elevation of the hepatic enzyme alanine aminotransferase (ALAT). The studies demonstrate that the pharmacokinetics of melagatran and ximelagatran were predictable and well correlated to renal function. The coagulation marker, activated partial thromboplastin time (APTT), increased non-linearly with increasing thrombin inhibitor plasma concentration. Overall, the systemic melagatran exposure (AUC) and APTT were similarly predictive of thrombosis and bleedings. The identified relationship between the risk of ALAT-elevation and melagatran AUC suggests that the incidence approaches a maximum at high exposures. The estimated clinical utility was favourable compared to placebo in the overall study population and in special subgroups of patients following fixed dosing of ximelagatran for long-term secondary prevention of VTE. Individualized dosing was predicted to add limited clinical benefit in this indication. The models developed can be used to support the studied dosage and for selection of alternative dosing strategies that may improve the clinical outcome of ximelagatran treatment. In addition, the models may be extrapolated to aid the dose selection in clinical trials with other direct thrombin inhibitors.

A central aim in drug development is to ensure that the new drug is efficacious and safe in the intended patient population. Mathematical models describing the pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic (PK-PD) properties of a drug are valuable to increase the knowledge about drug effects and disease and can be used to inform decisions. The aim of this thesis was to develop mechanism-based PK-PD-disease models for important safety and efficacy biomarkers used in anti-diabetic drug development. Population PK, PK-PD and disease models were developed, based on data from clinical studies in subjects with varying degrees of renal function, non-diabetic subjects with insulin resistance and patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), receiving a peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor (PPAR) α/γ agonist, tesaglitazar. The PK model showed that a decreased renal elimination of the metabolite in renally impaired subjects leads to increased levels of metabolite undergoing interconversion and subsequent accumulation of tesaglitazar. Tesaglitazar negatively affects the glomerular filtration rate (GFR), and since renal function affects tesaglitazar exposure, a PK-PD model was developed to simultaneously describe this interrelationship. The model and data showed that all patients had decreases in GFR, which were reversible when discontinuing treatment. The PK-PD model described the interplay between fasting plasma glucose (FPG), glycosylated haemoglobin (HbA1c) and haemoglobin in T2DM patients. It provided a mechanistically plausible description of the release and aging of red blood cells (RBC), and the glucose dependent glycosylation of RBC to HbA1c. The PK-PD model for FPG and fasting insulin, incorporating components for β-cell mass, insulin sensitivity and impact of disease and drug treatment, realistically described the complex glucose homeostasis in the heterogeneous patient population. The mechanism-based PK, PK-PD and disease models increase the understanding about T2DM and important biomarkers, and can be used to improve decision making in the development of future anti-diabetic drugs.

In drug development clinical trials are designed to investigate whether a new treatment is safe and has the desired effect on the disease in the target patient population. Categorical endpoints, for example different ranking scales or grading of adverse events, are commonly used to measure effects in the trials. Pharmacokinetic/Pharmacodynamic (PK/PD) models are used to describe the plasma concentration of a drug over time and its relationship to the effect studied. The models are utilized both in drug development and in discussions with drug regulating authorities. Methods for incorporation of ordered categorical data in PK/PD models were studied using a non-linear mixed effects modelling approach as implemented in the software NONMEM. The traditionally used proportional odds model was used for analysis of a 6-grade sedation scale in acute stroke patients and for analysis of a T-cell receptor expression in patients with Multiple Sclerosis, where the results also were compared with an analysis of the data on a continuous scale. Modifications of the proportional odds model were developed to enable analysis of a spontaneously reported side-effect and to analyze situations where the scale used is heterogeneous or where the drug affects the different scores in the scale in a non-proportional way. The new models were compared with the proportional odds model and were shown to give better predictive performances in the analyzed situations. The results in this thesis show that categorical data obtained in clinical trials with different design and different categorical endpoints successfully can be incorporated in PK/PD models. The models developed can also be applied to analyses of other ordered categorical scales than those presented.

Introdução: estudos de farmacocinética/farmacodinâmica (FC/FD) observaram que a probabilidade de alcançar o alvo FC/FD é maior quando a dose do beta-lactâmico é otimizada. Porém, poucos estudos demonstraram que a otimização de dose resulta em melhores desfechos clínicos. Métodos: Fatores associados com mortalidade em 30 dias foram avaliados em 100 pacientes com bacteremia por enterobactérias tratados com cefepime, piperacilina-tazobactam ou meropenem em um estudo de coorte prospectivo. Posologia dos antibióticos foi classificada em otimizada, apropriada e potencialmente inapropriada. Resultados: Cinquenta e dois (52%) episódios foram causados por E. coli, seguidos por K. pneumoniae (10%). Dezesseis (16%) episódios foram causados por isolados resistentes à cefepime e não houve nenhum caso de resistência à carbapenêmicos. A maioria dos isolados apresentou concentrações inibitórias mínimas (CIMs) baixas para as drogas prescritas (≤0.5, ≤1.0, ≤1/4 mg/L, para meropenem, cefepime e piperacilina-tazobactam respectivamente). Cefepime foi o antimicrobiano mais frequentemente prescrito para tratamento empírico e definitivo. Terapia otimizada foi observada em 42% dos pacientes e terapia adequada em 58%. A mortalidade em 30 dias foi 37%. Escore de Pitt, Charlson e apresentação com sepse severa foram independentemente associados à mortalidade. Não houve diferença em mortalidade entre os pacientes que receberam terapia otimizada e terapia adequada. Conclusões: os resultados mostram que a otimização das doses de cefepime, piperacilina-tazobactam e meropenem não teve impacto em mortalidade Em pacientes recebendo terapia empírica apropriada para bacteremias por Enterobacteriaceae. Este achado pode ser devido aos baixos valores de CIM apresentados pelas bactéria. Comorbidades e a severidade da apresentação são fatores associados à pior evolução. / Background: Pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic (PK/PD) studies have shown that the probability of PK/PD target attainment is higher when optimized dosage regimes of beta-lactams are employed, but few studies have shown clinical benefit of such strategy. Methods: We investigated the effect of dosage regimes in 30-day mortality in 100 patients with Enterobacteriaceae bloodstream infections (BSIs) receiving appropriate empirical therapy with cefepime, piperacillin-tazobactam or meropenem. Posology of antibiotic was classified as optimized, adequate and possibly inadequate. Results: Most isolates presented relatively low MIC for the prescribed drugs (≤0.5, ≤1.0, ≤1/4 μg/mL, for meropenem, cefepime and piperacillin-tazobactam respectively). Cefepime was the most common prescribed drug for empirical and main therapy. Optimized posology was prescribed in 42% of patients and adequate in 58%. The overall 30-day mortality was 27.0%. Charlson score, Pitt score and presentation with severe sepsis were independently associated with the 30-day mortality. Patients receiving optimized dosage regime presented no distinct 30-day mortality of those with adequate ones (25.0% versus 28.3%, P=0.89), even after inclusion in multivariate model. Conclusion: Our results suggest that dosage regime optimization of cefepime, piperacillin-tazobactam and meropenem may have no effect on mortality when infecting bacteria with low MICs for these drugs. In patients receiving appropriate empirical therapy for Enterobacteriaceae BSI, baseline comorbidity is an independent predictor of death and the severity of BSI presentation is also significantly associated with this outcome is such patients. Studies in population with higher MIC heterogeneity are required to evaluate the role of optimized doses in clinical setting.

Introdução: estudos de farmacocinética/farmacodinâmica (FC/FD) observaram que a probabilidade de alcançar o alvo FC/FD é maior quando a dose do beta-lactâmico é otimizada. Porém, poucos estudos demonstraram que a otimização de dose resulta em melhores desfechos clínicos. Métodos: Fatores associados com mortalidade em 30 dias foram avaliados em 100 pacientes com bacteremia por enterobactérias tratados com cefepime, piperacilina-tazobactam ou meropenem em um estudo de coorte prospectivo. Posologia dos antibióticos foi classificada em otimizada, apropriada e potencialmente inapropriada. Resultados: Cinquenta e dois (52%) episódios foram causados por E. coli, seguidos por K. pneumoniae (10%). Dezesseis (16%) episódios foram causados por isolados resistentes à cefepime e não houve nenhum caso de resistência à carbapenêmicos. A maioria dos isolados apresentou concentrações inibitórias mínimas (CIMs) baixas para as drogas prescritas (≤0.5, ≤1.0, ≤1/4 mg/L, para meropenem, cefepime e piperacilina-tazobactam respectivamente). Cefepime foi o antimicrobiano mais frequentemente prescrito para tratamento empírico e definitivo. Terapia otimizada foi observada em 42% dos pacientes e terapia adequada em 58%. A mortalidade em 30 dias foi 37%. Escore de Pitt, Charlson e apresentação com sepse severa foram independentemente associados à mortalidade. Não houve diferença em mortalidade entre os pacientes que receberam terapia otimizada e terapia adequada. Conclusões: os resultados mostram que a otimização das doses de cefepime, piperacilina-tazobactam e meropenem não teve impacto em mortalidade Em pacientes recebendo terapia empírica apropriada para bacteremias por Enterobacteriaceae. Este achado pode ser devido aos baixos valores de CIM apresentados pelas bactéria. Comorbidades e a severidade da apresentação são fatores associados à pior evolução. / Background: Pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic (PK/PD) studies have shown that the probability of PK/PD target attainment is higher when optimized dosage regimes of beta-lactams are employed, but few studies have shown clinical benefit of such strategy. Methods: We investigated the effect of dosage regimes in 30-day mortality in 100 patients with Enterobacteriaceae bloodstream infections (BSIs) receiving appropriate empirical therapy with cefepime, piperacillin-tazobactam or meropenem. Posology of antibiotic was classified as optimized, adequate and possibly inadequate. Results: Most isolates presented relatively low MIC for the prescribed drugs (≤0.5, ≤1.0, ≤1/4 μg/mL, for meropenem, cefepime and piperacillin-tazobactam respectively). Cefepime was the most common prescribed drug for empirical and main therapy. Optimized posology was prescribed in 42% of patients and adequate in 58%. The overall 30-day mortality was 27.0%. Charlson score, Pitt score and presentation with severe sepsis were independently associated with the 30-day mortality. Patients receiving optimized dosage regime presented no distinct 30-day mortality of those with adequate ones (25.0% versus 28.3%, P=0.89), even after inclusion in multivariate model. Conclusion: Our results suggest that dosage regime optimization of cefepime, piperacillin-tazobactam and meropenem may have no effect on mortality when infecting bacteria with low MICs for these drugs. In patients receiving appropriate empirical therapy for Enterobacteriaceae BSI, baseline comorbidity is an independent predictor of death and the severity of BSI presentation is also significantly associated with this outcome is such patients. Studies in population with higher MIC heterogeneity are required to evaluate the role of optimized doses in clinical setting.

Introdução: estudos de farmacocinética/farmacodinâmica (FC/FD) observaram que a probabilidade de alcançar o alvo FC/FD é maior quando a dose do beta-lactâmico é otimizada. Porém, poucos estudos demonstraram que a otimização de dose resulta em melhores desfechos clínicos. Métodos: Fatores associados com mortalidade em 30 dias foram avaliados em 100 pacientes com bacteremia por enterobactérias tratados com cefepime, piperacilina-tazobactam ou meropenem em um estudo de coorte prospectivo. Posologia dos antibióticos foi classificada em otimizada, apropriada e potencialmente inapropriada. Resultados: Cinquenta e dois (52%) episódios foram causados por E. coli, seguidos por K. pneumoniae (10%). Dezesseis (16%) episódios foram causados por isolados resistentes à cefepime e não houve nenhum caso de resistência à carbapenêmicos. A maioria dos isolados apresentou concentrações inibitórias mínimas (CIMs) baixas para as drogas prescritas (≤0.5, ≤1.0, ≤1/4 mg/L, para meropenem, cefepime e piperacilina-tazobactam respectivamente). Cefepime foi o antimicrobiano mais frequentemente prescrito para tratamento empírico e definitivo. Terapia otimizada foi observada em 42% dos pacientes e terapia adequada em 58%. A mortalidade em 30 dias foi 37%. Escore de Pitt, Charlson e apresentação com sepse severa foram independentemente associados à mortalidade. Não houve diferença em mortalidade entre os pacientes que receberam terapia otimizada e terapia adequada. Conclusões: os resultados mostram que a otimização das doses de cefepime, piperacilina-tazobactam e meropenem não teve impacto em mortalidade Em pacientes recebendo terapia empírica apropriada para bacteremias por Enterobacteriaceae. Este achado pode ser devido aos baixos valores de CIM apresentados pelas bactéria. Comorbidades e a severidade da apresentação são fatores associados à pior evolução. / Background: Pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic (PK/PD) studies have shown that the probability of PK/PD target attainment is higher when optimized dosage regimes of beta-lactams are employed, but few studies have shown clinical benefit of such strategy. Methods: We investigated the effect of dosage regimes in 30-day mortality in 100 patients with Enterobacteriaceae bloodstream infections (BSIs) receiving appropriate empirical therapy with cefepime, piperacillin-tazobactam or meropenem. Posology of antibiotic was classified as optimized, adequate and possibly inadequate. Results: Most isolates presented relatively low MIC for the prescribed drugs (≤0.5, ≤1.0, ≤1/4 μg/mL, for meropenem, cefepime and piperacillin-tazobactam respectively). Cefepime was the most common prescribed drug for empirical and main therapy. Optimized posology was prescribed in 42% of patients and adequate in 58%. The overall 30-day mortality was 27.0%. Charlson score, Pitt score and presentation with severe sepsis were independently associated with the 30-day mortality. Patients receiving optimized dosage regime presented no distinct 30-day mortality of those with adequate ones (25.0% versus 28.3%, P=0.89), even after inclusion in multivariate model. Conclusion: Our results suggest that dosage regime optimization of cefepime, piperacillin-tazobactam and meropenem may have no effect on mortality when infecting bacteria with low MICs for these drugs. In patients receiving appropriate empirical therapy for Enterobacteriaceae BSI, baseline comorbidity is an independent predictor of death and the severity of BSI presentation is also significantly associated with this outcome is such patients. Studies in population with higher MIC heterogeneity are required to evaluate the role of optimized doses in clinical setting.