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La mer de Barents possède un écosystème particulièrement riche. Elle est affectée par le changement climatique actuel, comme le reste de l'Arctique. L'effet le plus visible et le plus connu est la réduction spectaculaire de la banquise. On examine dans cette thèse les répercussions de ces changements sur l'hydrologie et le phytoplancton en mer de Barents. Pour cela, on s'appuie sur la création d'une base de données historiques comprenant les paramètres hydrologiques et bio-géochimiques. Un modèle 3D bio-géochimique spécifique à l'écosystème arctique est aussi utilisé quand les observations sont manquantes. Enfin, les données satellites fournissent des séries temporelles de concentration de glace, de Chlorophyle-a...La mer de Barents est caractérisée par un front polaire séparant les eaux atlantiques issues des mers Nordiques des eaux arctiques dont la position est connue à l'ouest de 35°E. Nous avons pu montrer que ce front se sépare en deux branches dans l'Est du bassin: le front du Nord et le front du Sud. Ces fronts enferment les eaux de la mer de Barents qui se forment en hiver. Un doublement du volume des eaux atlantiques (une " Atlantification " de la mer de Barents), a aussi été mise en évidence. Elle accompagne un déplacement des fronts Nord et Sud vers le Nord-est. Le volume des eaux de la mer de Barents reste inchangé.Ces changements, affectant l'hydrologie et la glace de Mer, ont un impact significatif sur le phytoplancton. Les deux efflorescences qui le caractérisent ont lieu plus au Nord et à l'Est. La biomasse totale annuelle a augmenté de 40% lors des deux dernières décennies. Ce travail montre que les conditions de glace de mer et la structure frontale sont les paramètres clefs dirigeant la variabilitéinter-annuelle du phytoplancton. / The Barents Sea has a particularly rich ecosystem. This is an Arctic region subject to intense climate changes. The drastic decrease in sea ice cover is the most visible effect. What are the impacts of these climatic changes on the hydrology and phytoplankton? In order to answer these questions, this thesis relies on the creation of an extensive historical database of physical and bio-geochemical parameters. A 3D bio-geochemical model with an Arctic specific ecosystem is used when observations are lacking. At least, remote sensing data provides valuable time series of Ice concentration, Chlorophyll-a... The Polar Front, separating the Atlantic Water coming from the Nordic Sea from the Arctic Water, is the principal feature of the Barents Sea region. Its position is known west of 35°E, but we showed that the polar front splits into two branches in the East part of the Barents Sea: the "Southern Front" and the "Northern Front". They enclose the winter locally formed Barents Sea Water. An “Atlantification”, illustrating a doubling of the Atlantic Water volume, has been evidenced and goes along with a North-eastward shift of the fronts. These hydrological and sea ice changes have a significant impact on the phytoplankton development. The two blooms of the Barents Sea occur further North and East with a 40% total anual biomass increase for the last two decades. This study suggests that the winter sea ice conditions and the frontal structure are the key mechanisms driving the inter-annual phytoplankton variability.

Increasing concerns over future anthropogenic effects on climate change as a result of increasing greenhouse gases generate concomitant efforts to better characterize recent climate in order to more accurately predict climate in the future. To this end, a multiproxy study of climate variability in western Ireland from lacustrine sediment was undertaken. The interpretation of paleoclimate records derived from lacustrine carbonate minerals is difficult without a good understanding of the mechanisms that generate variation in isotope values of modern surface waters. Variation in surface waters are ultimately incorporated into lacustrine sediment records conflated by temperature. Therefore, a study of the spatial distribution of ä¹⁸O and äD values of lake and river waters from 144 locations in Ireland has been conducted to provide insight into the behavior of lakes and rivers in Ireland, including source, recycling and loss through evapotranspiration. A 7.6 m sediment core was recovered from Lough Inchiquin that provides evidence for rapid and long-term climate change from the Late Glacial to the Holocene. This was determined using carbon and oxygen isotope analyses of lacustrine calcite as well as carbon from bulk organic sediment fractions. Several significant climate perturbations were identified in the ä¹⁸O_calcite record such as the Oldest Dryas, Younger Dryas, and the 8.2 ka cold event. A previously undescribed climate anomaly between 7,300 to 6,700 cal. yr B.P. characterized by low ä¹⁸O</span>_calcite values with high frequency variability. Variations in carbon isotopes of calcite and bulk organics from the Late Glacial to the Holocene are significant in magnitude (~12) and have similar trends that record temporal shifts in the relative contributions of carbon from the weathering of limestone versus the weathering of terrestrial organic matter. ä¹³C_calcite and ä¹³C_org suggest a rapid recovery of terrestrial vegetation following the Younger Dryas. Change in Ää¹³C_{calcite - org} documents a rapid increase in exogenous fluxes of carbon into the lake at ~9 ka.

Increasing concerns over future anthropogenic effects on climate change as a result of increasing greenhouse gases generate concomitant efforts to better characterize recent climate in order to more accurately predict climate in the future. To this end, a multiproxy study of climate variability in western Ireland from lacustrine sediment was undertaken. The interpretation of paleoclimate records derived from lacustrine carbonate minerals is difficult without a good understanding of the mechanisms that generate variation in isotope values of modern surface waters. Variation in surface waters are ultimately incorporated into lacustrine sediment records conflated by temperature. Therefore, a study of the spatial distribution of ä¹⁸O and äD values of lake and river waters from 144 locations in Ireland has been conducted to provide insight into the behavior of lakes and rivers in Ireland, including source, recycling and loss through evapotranspiration. A 7.6 m sediment core was recovered from Lough Inchiquin that provides evidence for rapid and long-term climate change from the Late Glacial to the Holocene. This was determined using carbon and oxygen isotope analyses of lacustrine calcite as well as carbon from bulk organic sediment fractions. Several significant climate perturbations were identified in the ä¹⁸O_calcite record such as the Oldest Dryas, Younger Dryas, and the 8.2 ka cold event. A previously undescribed climate anomaly between 7,300 to 6,700 cal. yr B.P. characterized by low ä¹⁸O</span>_calcite values with high frequency variability. Variations in carbon isotopes of calcite and bulk organics from the Late Glacial to the Holocene are significant in magnitude (~12) and have similar trends that record temporal shifts in the relative contributions of carbon from the weathering of limestone versus the weathering of terrestrial organic matter. ä¹³C_calcite and ä¹³C_org suggest a rapid recovery of terrestrial vegetation following the Younger Dryas. Change in Ää¹³C_{calcite - org} documents a rapid increase in exogenous fluxes of carbon into the lake at ~9 ka.

L’étendue hivernale de la banquise en mer de Barents n’a cessé de diminuer, et un certain nombre d’études suggèrent que cette diminution pourrait coïncider avec des hivers très froids en Europe et Asie. L’eau Atlantique (AW) transportée vers la mer de Barents, se réchauffe. En mer de Barents, l’AW se transforme en Barents Sea Water (BSW), plus froide et moins salée. Etudier cette dernière nous permet d’en savoir plus sur l’influence de la saisonnalité de la banquise Arctique sur la stratification et la circulation de l’océan.Tout d’abord, nous utilisons des observations satellites pour localiser le Front Polaire (PF) qui matérialise la limite entre la BSW et l’eau Arctique. Nous établissons que l’étendue de la banquise était indépendante du PF jusqu’au milieu des années 2000, jusqu’à ce que le réchauffement de l’AW commence à limiter l’extension de la banquise hivernale au sud du front. Ensuite, en combinant données satellites et in situ, nous montrons que l’on peut surveiller ‘à distance’ les propriétés de la BSW : les variations de la température de surface de l’océan sont ainsi corrélées à celles du contenu en chaleur de la mer de Barents qui, associées à celles de la hauteur stérique, permettent également d’estimer son contenu en eau douce.Pour finir, nous utilisons un modèle à haute résolution pour calculer les bilans de volume, transport et flux des masses d’eau. Le volume de la BSW atteint un minimum en 1990 et 2004 : l’étendue de glace de mer hivernale ayant fondue l’été suivant était alors conséquente, résultant notamment d’une masse d’AW plus froide. L’événement de 2004 a permis une entrée massive d’AW, de plus en plus chaude, dans la mer de Barents. / Winter sea ice has declined in the Barents Sea and there is growing evidence that the low sea ice here coincides with cold, winter surface air temperature in Europe and Asia. Atlantic Water (AW) transported into the Barents Sea is warming and its temperature variability is correlated with variability in sea ice extent. As AW extends into the Barents Sea it is modified into a cooler, fresher water mass called BarentsSea Water (BSW). There are limited observations of BSW despite its importance in the Arctic Ocean system, leading to the question, how does the seasonal sea ice impact ocean stratification and mean flow?First, satellite observations are used to find the Polar Front, a water mass boundary between BSW and fresher Arctic Water to the north. The sea ice extent was found to be independent of the Polar Front until the mid-2000s when warming AW prevented the extension of winter sea ice south of the front.Second, by combining satellite and in situ data, it is shown that sea surface temperature can approximate heat content in the Barents Sea. Using heat content with satellite steric height, freshwater content can also be estimated, showing the potential for remote monitoring of BSW properties.Third, a high-resolution model is used to calculate the volume, transport and flux budgets within the AW and BSW domain south of the Polar Front. The model shows BSW volume minimum years in 1990 and2004. Both events were preceded by extensive winter sea ice and substantial summer sea ice melt, a result of preceding, cool AW. The event in 2004 was more extreme and allowed warming AW a greater volume in the Barents Sea.

[pt] Baseando -se no contexto das mudanças climáticas, esta pesquisa fundamenta seus estudos na relação entre o fenômeno atmosférico da Frente Polar Atlântica (FPA) e os impactos de eventos extremos, especificamente no litoral carioca, partindo da premissa que, decorrente do aumento destes eventos frontais atmosféricos, estaria ocorrendo um consequente aumento do número de ressacas oceânicas com potenciais repercussões litorâneas negativas. O trabalho tem como objetivo identificar esta tendência dos impactos de eventos costeiros extremos sobre a linha de costa carioca a partir da análise das ocorrências históricas da expansão da Frente Fria Polar Atlântica ao longo das últimas três décadas (1988 – 2017). Para alcançar o objetivo proposto foram realizadas a aquisição de dados secundários meteorológicos, oceânicos e de registros midiáticos, baseados nas seguintes etapas: estudo numérico da frequência absoluta total da FPA (primeira etapa), assim como de ressacas significativas (segunda etapa) e eventos de impactos costeiros (terceira etapa), além da elaboração estatística do coeficiente de correlação e a frequência relativa percentual entre estes eventos (quarta etapa). Diante disto, obteve-se uma correlação positiva moderada, capaz de comprovar a hipótese desta dissertação de que há de fato uma variação numérica simultânea quanto à ocorrência das FPA s e os impactos costeiros sobre a orla carioca. Finalizando, a quinta etapa metodológica se baseou no processamento dos dados sobre a frequência histórica dos impactos costeiros, elaborando o mapa de frequência dos impactos costeiros (FIC S) no município do Rio de Janeiro (1988 – 2017), a partir do software ArcGis 10.3 e Google Earth Pro. / [en] Based on the context of climate change, this research bases its studies on the relationship between the atmospheric phenomenon of the Atlantic Polar Front (FPA) and the impacts of extreme events, specifically on the coast of Rio de Janeiro, based on the premise that, due to the increase in these frontal events atmospheric conditions, there would be a consequent increase in the number of ocean surfs with potential negative coastal repercussions. The work aims to identify this trend of the impacts of extreme coastal events on the coast of Rio de Janeiro from the analysis of the historical occurrences of the expansion of the Cold Atlantic Polar Front over the last three decades (1988 - 2017). To achieve the proposed objective, the acquisition of secondary meteorological, oceanic data and media records was carried out, based on the following steps: numerical study of the total absolute frequency of the FPA (first stage), as well as significant hangovers (second stage) and events of coastal impacts (third stage), in addition to the statistical elaboration of the correlation coefficient and the percentage relative frequency between these events (fourth stage). In view of this, a moderate positive correlation was obtained, capable of proving the hypothesis of this dissertation that there is in fact a simultaneous numerical variation as to the occurrence of FPA s and the coastal impacts on the Rio shore. Finally, the fifth methodological step was based on the processing of data on the historical frequency of coastal impacts, elaborating the frequency map of coastal impacts (FIC S) in the municipality of Rio de Janeiro (1988 - 2017), using the software ArcGis 10.3 and Google Earth Pro.

Four continuous high-resolution peat records for the Holocene have been reconstructed across a ~300km transect from Shebster in Caithness to Yell in the Shetland Isles. These records describe the nature and extent of North Atlantic climate changes inferred from indicators of storminess and minerogenic aeolian dust, and are supported by radiogenic isotope analysis, tephrochronology and radiocarbon dating. The environmental changes at all four sites displays a significant degree of synchrony in response to changes in the position of the polar front jet (PFJ) stream and the phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Bromine concentrations in the peat, derived from sea spray, are used to reconstruct storm frequency and storm intensity, and mire surface wetness is used as an indicator of longer-term climate shifts. The results suggest a strong link between positive phases of the NAO and storminess. Subtle differences between the bromine concentrations and the mire surface wetness suggest that high intensity but perhaps less frequent periods of storminess are not necessarily associated with a wetter climate. Atmospheric minerogenic dust concentrations are used to reconstruct large-scale climate changes across the wider North Atlantic region. The results suggest a sympathy between dust activity and periods of glacial advance and a negative index of the NAO. Radiogenic isotope analysis suggests that the smallest particles may originate from Iceland.

Les changements climatiques ont un impact certain sur les écosystèmes marins. Un déplacement vers le sud des principaux systèmes de front servant de sites de nourrissage pour de nombreuses espèces de prédateurs supérieurs est susceptible de se produire dans les zones subantarctiques. Les « central place foragers », tels que les pinnipèdes, sont susceptibles de faire face à une augmentation de la distance entre leurs lieux d'alimentation et leurs colonies d'élevage. Nous avons étudié l’impact des changements climatiques sur le succès d’élevage et la dynamique de population des otaries à fourrure (Arctocephalus gazella) des Îles Kerguelen par le biais du développement du modèle individu centré, MarCPFS (Marine Central Place Foragers Simulator) qui montre que la survie du couple femelle-jeune est particulièrement sensible à la répartition des proies (abondance et structure), à la capacité de mémorisation des meilleurs sites de nourrissages trouvés par la femelle pendant la période d'élevage, à la taille des femelles et à la distance qu'il faut parcourir pour trouver la ressource. Les résultats suggèrent qu’au cours des trois prochaines décennies un déplacement vers le sud supérieur à 2km an 1 pourrait compromettre la survie et la durabilité des populations. Un couplage avec un modèle de simulation de la dynamique océanique et de la ressource (SEAPODYM) a permis des projections jusqu’à la fin de ce siècle basées sur le scénarios RCP8.5 du GIEC (2014), confirmant les tendances mises à jour précédemment. Ces travaux montrent que les perspectives de maintien des populations sont pessimistes y compris en envisageant une adaptation de la taille des individus. / Climate change has certain impact on the marine ecosystems. A southward shift in productive frontal systems serving as the main foraging sites for many top predator species is likely to occur in the Subantarctic areas. Central place foragers, as seabirds and pinnipeds, are thus likely to cope with an increase in the distance between foraging locations and their land-based breeding colonies. We studied the impact of climate change on the breeding success and population dynamics of Antarctic fur seals (Arctocephalus gazella) at Kerguelen Islands by means of an individual based model we developped, MarCPFS (Marine Central Place Foragers Simulator) which showed that the survival of the female-pup pair is particularly sensitive to the distribution of preys (abundance and structure), to the memorization abilities of the best resource sites found by the female during the rearing period, to the female size and to the foraging distance which it is necessary to cover at each trip. The results suggest that during the next three decades a southward shift greater than 2 km year-1 could compromise the survival and the sustainability of the populations. A coupling with a model of simulation of the oceanic dynamics and the resource (SEAPODYM) allowed projections till the end of this century based on scenarios RCP8.5 of the IPCC (2014), confirming the trends previously obtained. Globally, these works lead us to conclude with pessimistic perspectives about the sustainability of populations even when considering an evolution through time towards individuals of greater sizes.