Throughout Chinese history the dominant political philosophy has been that of the ¡§rule of men¡¨. This tradition has an indirect influence on scholars researching the problems of the CCP¡¦s political succession, as they often emphasize Chinese political culture, ¡¥guanxi¡¦ and faction theory, in which they analyze the patters of factional struggles and factional development through the perspective of a conflict. However, Susan Shrik tries to explain that the struggle for power involves other factors such as a person¡¦s departmental distribution of interests. Andrew Nathan discusses the development of factions from a systemic point of view. The group of scholars that focus on the latter perspective seem to be breaking away from the ¡¥social¡¦ aspect of political science, making it difficult to define the motivations of actors within different factions in humanistic terms. In this paper we decided to analyze the problems of political succession within the CCP not only through traditional theoretic patters but also incorporating ¡¥social capitol theory¡¦ as well. In this way we can better analyze how factions and their members build and manage their ¡¥guanxi¡¦ during the process of political succession. Through the analysis of the social context, institutions, and norms involved in factionalism and political succession we can better understand how factions and their members pursue power and legitimacy through the building of social capital in the political succession process. Thus, this paper seeks to use social capital theory to create a clear idea of the role of factions and their members within the CCP during the political succession process.

京都大学 / 0048 / 新制・課程博士 / 博士(地域研究) / 甲第22556号 / 地博第259号 / 新制||地||98(附属図書館) / 京都大学大学院アジア・アフリカ地域研究研究科東南アジア地域研究専攻 / (主査)教授 玉田 芳史, 教授 岡本 正明, 准教授 中西 嘉宏 / 学位規則第4条第1項該当 / Doctor of Area Studies / Kyoto University / DFAM

I examine how political geography affects firms' cost of debt. Policy risk, measured by proximity to political power reflected in firms' position in the country's political map, is negatively related to corporate bond ratings and positively related to firms' cost of debt. I find firms' policy risk can be mitigated by engaging in corporate political strategies like making campaign contributions or lobbying. Consistent with the view that such political strategies effectively protect firms against uncertainty about future policies, I find policy risk has less of an impact on the cost of debt of firms that support more powerful and well-connected politicians in the legislative co-sponsorship network or that spend more money on lobbying. Using a sample of state pension funds' equity holdings, I find that state pension funds exhibit not only local bias but also bias towards politically connected stocks. These politically connected local firms held by state pension funds do not exhibit better performance compared with their local benchmarks not held by these funds before the holding period, and the overweighting of politically connected local firms is negatively related to pension fund returns. My results do not support the information advantage hypothesis that state pension funds exhibit overweighting of local firms because they have an information advantage about home-state firms. I further examine the factors that explain local bias from political perspectives. My results show that local bias is related to public policy integrity and local politicians' congressional connections.

This thesis focuses on international intervention and statebuilding in post-2001 Afghanistan. It offers an alternative lens, a network lens, to understand the complexity of internationally sponsored state re-building and transformation. It therefore analyses how political power is assembled and flows through political networks in statebuilding, with an eye to the hitherto ignored endogenous political networks. The empirical chapters investigate the role and power dynamics of Afghan political network in re-assembling and transforming the post-2001 state once a political settlement is reached; how everyday political network practices shape the nature of statehood and governance; and subsequently how these power dynamics and practices contribute towards political order/violence and stability/instability. This thesis challenges the dominant wisdom that peacebuilding is a process of democratisation or institutionalisation, showing how intervention has unintentionally produced the democratic façade of a state, underpinning by informal power structures of Afghan politics. The post-2001 intervention has fashioned a ‘network state’ where the state and political networks have become indistinguishable from one another: the empowered network masquerade as the state. This study suggests that a new political order is emerging in post-2001 Afghanistan where political stability is a function of patron-client relations, opportunistic practices of bargaining and expropriation of public resources for political network gain as well as the instrumentalisation of identities. In light of this analysis, it concludes with the implications of the research findings for the future of Afghanistan. It posits that a successful international military exit from Afghanistan and post-2014 state survival may depend primarily on the political stability of the empowered political networks. This research is based on extensive fieldwork, including participatory observation and interviews (more than 130 interviews) with key informants over 16 months in Afghanistan.

abstract: Millions of users leave digital traces of their political engagements on social media platforms every day. Users form networks of interactions, produce textual content, like and share each others' content. This creates an invaluable opportunity to better understand the political engagements of internet users. In this proposal, I present three algorithmic solutions to three facets of online political networks; namely, detection of communities, antagonisms and the impact of certain types of accounts on political polarization. First, I develop a multi-view community detection algorithm to find politically pure communities. I find that word usage among other content types (i.e. hashtags, URLs) complement user interactions the best in accurately detecting communities. Second, I focus on detecting negative linkages between politically motivated social media users. Major social media platforms do not facilitate their users with built-in negative interaction options. However, many political network analysis tasks rely on not only positive but also negative linkages. Here, I present the SocLSFact framework to detect negative linkages among social media users. It utilizes three pieces of information; sentiment cues of textual interactions, positive interactions, and socially balanced triads. I evaluate the contribution of each three aspects in negative link detection performance on multiple tasks. Third, I propose an experimental setup that quantifies the polarization impact of automated accounts on Twitter retweet networks. I focus on a dataset of tragic Parkland shooting event and its aftermath. I show that when automated accounts are removed from the retweet network the network polarization decrease significantly, while a same number of accounts to the automated accounts are removed randomly the difference is not significant. I also find that prominent predictors of engagement of automatically generated content is not very different than what previous studies point out in general engaging content on social media. Last but not least, I identify accounts which self-disclose their automated nature in their profile by using expressions such as bot, chat-bot, or robot. I find that human engagement to self-disclosing accounts compared to non-disclosing automated accounts is much smaller. This observational finding can motivate further efforts into automated account detection research to prevent their unintended impact. / Dissertation/Thesis / Doctoral Dissertation Computer Science 2019

Après soixante-dix années au pouvoir, le Parti Révolutionnaire Institutionnel (PRI) perd les élections de 2000 au niveau national. Pourtant, si l’on peut parler d’alternance politique, il ne s’agit pas vraiment d’une transformation radicale de type de régime. Cette thèse propose un nouvel éclairage sur la question du changement politique. Au travers d’une étude biographique de personnages publics autour de l’ex-président priiste Carlos Salinas de Gortari (1988-1994), elle apporte une analyse des modalités de construction du groupe politique (1950-1979) ainsi que les mécanismes et stratégies mobilisés pour accéder au pouvoir (1979- 2000). Cette accession prend place dans un contexte de crises nationales, internationales et de déplacement de paradigmes. Les acteurs étudiés parviennent alors à « déformer » les règles d’un régime fermé, pour être à l’initiative d’un processus de « démocratisation », entendu comme la promotion des « flux d’ouverture ». Les membres du groupe politique de l'ex- président vivent, à partir des années 2000, une extraordinaire « dissémination » dans d’autres secteurs (économiques, politiques et consultants). On pourra alors identifier comment un groupe politique parvient à acquérir et conserver des fiefs de pouvoir, avant, pendant et après avoir quitté formellement le gouvernement. La thèse expose, tant du point de vue théorique qu’empirique, ce mouvement, tout à fait paradoxal, entre disparition, circulation et reproduction d’une élite. / After seventy years in power, the Revolutionary Institutional Party (PRI) lost the 2000 federal elections. While this could be considered as a political alternation, it does not signify a complete transformation of the political regime. This thesis proposes a new point of view on the issues of political change. Through a biographical study of the public men around the ex- president Carlos Salinas de Gortari (1988-1994), we propose an analysis of the way of constructing a Political Group (1950-1979), as well as the mechanisms and strategies used to grasp power (1979-2000). This accession took place in a particular context of national and international crises as well as a paradigms shift. These actors had succeeded to “deform” the rules of a closed regime, promoting a process of “democratization”, called the “flows of openings”. The members of this political group surrounding that president have lived, since the year 2000, an extraordinary “dissemination” in different sectors (in particular the economic, political and consulting circles). We will be able to identify how a political group obtains power fiefdoms, before, during and after it has formally left the government. This thesis focuses on this paradoxical movement between disappearance, circulation and reproduction of elites from a theoretical and empirical level. / Después de setenta años en el poder, el Partido Revolucionario Institucional pierde las elecciones en el año 2000 a nivel nacional. Por lo tanto, aunque podamos hablar de alternancia política, no se trata completamente de una transformación del tipo de régimen. Esta tesis propone un punto de vista distinto sobre la problemática acerca del cambio político. A través de un estudio biográfico de personajes públicos alrededor del ex presidente Carlos Salinas de Gortari (1988-1994), aportamos un análisis de las modalidades de construcción de un grupo político (1950-1979), así como de los mecanismos y estrategias utilizadas para acceder al poder (1979-2000). Este ascenso tiene lugar en un contexto de crisis nacionales, internacionales y de desplazamiento de paradigmas. Los actores estudiados lograrán “deformar” las reglas de un régimen cerrado, para impulsar un proceso de “democratización”, entendido como la implementación de “flujos de apertura”. Asi, los miembros del grupo político del ex presidente viven, desde el año 2000, una extraordinaria “diseminación” en distintos sectores (económicos, políticos y de consultoría). Podremos por lo tanto identificar como un grupo político logra obtener feudos de poder, antes, durante y después de haber dejado formalmente el gobierno. La tesis se enfoca tanto en el plano teórico, como empírico, sobre este movimiento paradójico, entre desaparición, circulación y reproducción de una elite.