Quantum and tempo of population ageing process in the twelve countries of the former Soviet Union: Challenges, opportunities and public policies Abstract Population ageing is an omnipresent phenomenon which brings along unprecedented challenges to socio-economic development, especially to employment, social security and public health sectors. The broad goal of this doctoral thesis was to demonstrate that it is time to recognize the importance of population ageing and its dynamics even in the countries with relatively young population structures and to take urgent action through implementation of corresponding policy interventions in order to mitigate and eliminate the upcoming negative consequences and utilize potential opportunities. Research on population ageing in both more and less developed countries is abundant. However, amidst numerous studies, countries of the former Soviet Union remain largely overlooked. Besides, the quantum and tempo of population ageing have not been adequately addressed in the existing literature worldwide. This research addresses, to the best of our knowledge for the first time, those issues. Holistic approach to gap analysis was adopted to guide this study. The analysis was performed in three steps. The first step incorporated the identification and analysis of the observed...

By the end of the twentieth century, the generous German public pay-as-you-go pension system had been struggling with a serious deficit due to the country’s ageing population. In 2001, the German government enacted the “Riester” pension reform, named after Mr. Walter Riester, the Labour Minister brokering it, which reduced the level of publicly provided pensions, and strengthened the funded occupational and private pillars in order to replace the loss in retirement income. This thesis investigates the role and structure of occupational pensions during the Riester-reform and in its aftermath, using an economic geography perspective. In doing so, it discusses the role of trade unions and employer associations (social partners) in moulding the structure of the occupational system, and investigates the geography of occupational pensions both at employer and at employee level. Empirically, the thesis is based on an in-depth interview with Mr. Walter Riester, and a unique, proprietary data-set of a German occupational pension provider, containing information on 332 thousand employees and over 12 thousand employers. The results show that the internal division of social partners played a critical role in leaving occupational pensions voluntary, but they have been successful in setting standards on the occupational pension market by means of collective bargaining. Employers and employees show systematic spatiotemporal patterns in their pension-related decisions, confirming the importance of local relationships and local contexts in implementing social partners’ measures and in the transformation of the welfare state. It is finally pointed out that the Riester-reform was a part of a gradual transition, which has been reducing employers’ autonomy in order to reinforce the social role of occupational pensions. To achieve that and to catalyse the reform process, employers’ and employees’ risk exposure has been mitigated in the hope that old-age poverty can be avoided.

Fondée sur deux analyses empiriques et sur un travail de modélisation théorique, cette thèse traite de la problématique du vieillissement de la population, en France, en termes de dépenses de biens et services de santé, et en termes de prise en charge des personnes âgées dépendantes. Dans un premier chapitre, une méthode de microsimulation dynamique est mise au point afin d'évaluer l'évolution des dépenses de médicaments remboursables (en médecine de ville) sous l'effet du vieillissement de la population et de l'évolution de l'état de santé chronique des personnes âgées. Un deuxième chapitre s'intéresse aux tenants d'une possible réforme de l'Allocation Personnalisée d'Autonomie (APA), qui viserait à récupérer sur la succession une partie des fonds versés aux personnes dépendantes. Nous développons un modèle théorique de transfert intergénérationnel en individualisant les décisions des deux membres d'une famille, un parent dépendant et un enfant aidant informel potentiel. Enfin, dans une dernière partie, nous évaluons empiriquement les facteurs modifiant la demande d'aide à domicile des bénéficiaires de l'APA, en nous concentrant, afin d'anticiper sur de possibles réformes de l'aide publique, sur l'évaluation des effets-prix dans la demande d'aide formelle. / This thesis addresses, using an elaborated theoretical model and two empirical applications, issues related to population ageing and health care expenditures as per the French context. In the first chapter, a method of dynamic microsimulation is developed to assess the evolution of outpatient reimbursable drugs expenditures as a result of the ageing population and the evolution of health status of chronically ill elderly people. The second chapter focuses on the ins and outs of a possible reform of the Personal Allowance for Autonomy (APA), which would seek to recover a portion of the funds paid to disabled elderly on the inheritance of their heirs. A theoretical model of intergenerational transfers is developed to study the individual decisions of a two-member family - a disabled parent and a child who can play the role of informal care giver. The final section presents an empirical evaluation of the factors affecting the demand of APA's recipients for home care. This work examines the price effects in the demand for formal care in order to anticipate possible reforms of public allowance.

Made available in DSpace on 2016-04-26T20:48:56Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Jorgemar Soares Felix.pdf: 704396 bytes, checksum: 06bd54854f7732866abe602aac6011e8 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2009-05-19 / This paper analyzes the brazilian demographic dynamic in the next decades and the public policies in presence of the ageing population fenomenum. The first chapter presents the official data, projections and some author s point of view about the country demographic situation in the 21th centrury. The second chapter presents, in a historic abstract, how the theme were inset in the publics policies agenda, the active ageing concept and the news proposals to assure a high quality of life in the old age. The third chapter shows the Brazilians elderly situation today, with a highlight in the importance of the social security system´s conservation. The fourth presents how the neoliberal politic has limits to assure the elderly´s protection. The results aim to the relevant role of the State to answers to news demands although the old age ought be a responsibility partitioned amongst State, individuals and private sector. A new cientific area is suggested, with a multidisciplinary focus, called Longevity Economic / Esta dissertação analisa a dinâmica demográfica brasileira nas próximas décadas e as políticas públicas diante do processo de envelhecimento da população. No primeiro capítulo, são apresentados dados oficiais, projeções e a discussão de alguns autores sobre o quadro populacional do país na segunda metade do século XXI. No segundo capítulo, apresenta-se um resumo histórico da inserção do tema do envelhecimento na agenda das políticas públicas, o conceito do envelhecimento ativo e as novas propostas para garantir a qualidade de vida na velhice. No terceiro capítulo, é exposta a situação do idoso brasileiro contemporâneo, com destaque para a importância da seguridade social na manutenção do seu bem-estar. No quarto e último capítulo, são levantados os limites da política neoliberal para garantir a proteção do idoso. Os resultados da pesquisa apontam para a conclusão de que embora a velhice seja uma responsabilidade a ser dividida entre o indivíduo, a iniciativa privada e o Estado, este último com um papel mais relevante em decorrência do envelhecimento populacional demandar políticas em várias áreas e, por isso, é proposto um novo campo de investigação multidisciplinar sobre o tema, o qual se sugere denominar de Economia da Longevidade

Population ageing and the tendency for older adults to have poorer health status than younger adults have raised concerns about potential increases in the number of elderly suffering disease and disability. Significantly, many health problems experienced in later life are associated with the onset of a more sedentary lifestyle. Increasing older adults' participation in leisure time physical activity (henceforth LTPA) offers an opportunity to reduce the prevalence of preventable morbidity in later life and offset a potential burden of ageing on the public health sector. As a forerunner to the development of strategies to increase older adults' LTPA participation, researchers have investigated the intrapersonal, interpersonal and, to a lesser extent, environmental influences on this health behaviour. Recent findings from studies of the adult population have suggested that neighbourhood deprivation, a measure of the socioeconomic conditions of small areas, may significantly influence LTPA participation. Extending previous findings, this research investigated how neighbourhood deprivation influenced older adults' LTPA participation. A total of 63 older adults were recruited from high- and low-deprivation neighbourhoods in Christchurch, New Zealand. Neighbourhoods were selected because of their relative positions on the New Zealand Deprivation Index and were characterised by the researcher as "East-town", a neighbourhood of high deprivation, and "West-town", a neighbourhood of low deprivation. The research incorporated a cross-sectional, comparative and mixed-methods approach. The methods of enquiry employed in this research included a recall survey, Q method, and semi-structured interviewing. Each method addressed a different aspect of the primary research question and provided data that was used in the creation of an integrated model depicting the influence of neighbourhood deprivation on older adults' LTPA participation. The results derived from the three research methods showed that older adults from the low-deprivation neighbourhood of West-town participated in LTPA more frequently than older adults from the high-deprivation neighbourhood of East-town. East-town was identified as having many physical and social environmental constraints to LTPA and comparatively few facilitators. Alternatively, West-town was found to have many physical and social environmental facilitators to LTPA and relatively few constraints. Neighbourhood attributes which appeared to influence older adults' LTPA participation included appropriateness of leisure provision, neighbourhood attractiveness, walkability, traffic, and perceptions of crime and antisocial behaviour. One implication of this research is that environmental interventions should be considered in attempts to engage older adults in LTPA for health purposes, particularly in high-deprivation neighbourhoods.

The main aim of this diploma thesis is to give a complex view of the Czech pension system to the reader. In recent years pensions and their associated problems have been the main theme of many discussions. We often hear politicians and experts speaking about the financial problems of the Czech pension system and its unavoidable reform. The preamble of this thesis deals with different situations in the Czech pension system, the rules under which it operates and its history. The body of this work is focused on the analysis of fundamental problems and their effects on the contemporary pension system in the Czech Republic. The emphases in the thesis are on demographic trends; the ageing process; receipts and expenditures of the Czech pension system; the political situation and public opinion in the Czech Republic. The conclusion of this thesis describes various reforms for the Czech pension system and mentions basic information about the Slovak pension system.

The diploma thesis is aim at analysis of determinants that determine whether is the market of homes for the elderly and homes with special regime attractive for current and potential entrepreneurs. Theoretical part explains the phenomenom of population ageing, analyzes predictions of population development and the development of number of people suffering from Alzheimer disease, senior's financial resources, reasearches rights and duties of social services providers and analyzes effectiveness of financing the social services according to the type of founder. For needed findings is used analysis of specialized literature and studies. Analytical part analyzes preferences for examined kinds of social services. Offers practical example of running the home with special regime and brings the opinions of specialists on economization of social services. In the end of work are collected findings evaluate by means of SWOT analysis.

The thesis discusses how information and communication technologies (ICT or IT), nowadays transforms the form of health and social services. The specific arguments and social events are described, that leads today's health and social services closer to the use of ICT, influence and changes it. The work describes the latest trends linking ICT and social and health services in the areas of e-health, telemedicine, mobile health and assistive technologies. Specific tools and equipment and their practical use are presented. The practical part focuses on the introduction of specific- gadgets tablet care in caring for the elderly. Through direct interviews with caregivers and seniors is investigated how new technology is perceived by caregivers and seniors, how new technology equipment to care are introduced, and what positive and negative impact are the ICT has for facilities and the elderly. Key words assistive technology; eHealth; mHealth; patient engagement; population ageing; senior activation; senior care; telemedicine; touch tablets

ВКР (магистерская диссертация) состоит из введения, три глав, заключения, библиографического списка, включающего 79 наименования. Работа включает 4 таблицы и 27 рисунков. Общий объем ВКР (магистерской диссертации) – 112 страницы. Цель исследования – исследование правовой природы, проблем и преимуществ пенсионной системы в Китайской Народной Республике. Научная новизна исследования состоит в исследовании пенсионного обеспечения по старости после проведения пенсионной реформы в Китайской Народной Республике. Практическая значимость исследования заключается в возможности применения преимуществ китайской пенсионной системы в практике других стран, включая Российскую Федерацию. / The thesis consists of an introduction, three chapters, a conclusion and a bibliography with 79 titles. The work includes 4 tables and 27 figures. The total volume of Master's thesis is 114 pages. The purpose of the study is to investigate the legal nature, problems and advantages of the pension system in the People's Republic of China. The scientific novelty of the study consists of the study of old age pension provision after the pension reform in the People's Republic of China. The practical significance of the study lies in the possibility of applying the advantages of the Chinese pension system in the practice of other countries, including the Russian Federation.

Le vieillissement de la population a de nombreuses conséquences sur nos sociétés, comme la transformation du marché de l'emploi, l'émergence de nouveaux besoins en termes d'immigration et la création de nouveaux modèles familiaux qui défient le modèle traditionnel. Le vieillissement de la population affecte également l'offre et la demande de certains programmes gouvernementaux, comme la santé ou les pensions de retraite. Les conséquences du vieillissement de la population sur la politique électorale et la représentation démocratique ne sont cependant pas très bien comprises. Les chercheurs qui ont recours à l'approche sociologique pour étudier différents phénomènes ne s'entendent pas tous sur les conséquences du vieillissement de la population pour la politique. D'une part, certains posent l'argument selon lequel l'âge n'est pas un facteur suffisamment important pour expliquer les différences dans l'appui aux différents partis politiques, ce qui fait en sorte que l'influence des aînés sur la politique ne peut qu'être minime. D'autre part, certains posent l'argument selon lequel les différences d'âge en termes de préférences politiques peuvent avoir une influence sur les résultats politiques. Par exemple, en participant aux élections ou en créant des groupes d'intérêt, les aînés peuvent influencer les décisions des élus. L'objectif de cette thèse est de présenter des assises théoriques et des éléments de preuves empiriques pour faire avancer ce débat. Plus précisément, cette thèse tente de répondre aux questions suivantes: Les personnes plus âgées ont-elles des préférences politiques différentes des autres groupes d'âge? Les aînés préfèrent-ils certains partis politiques? Si oui, la participation politique des aînés peut-elle mener à l'élection de ces partis? Les élus s'intéressent-ils aux enjeux qui touchent les aînés? Le cadre théorique présenté dans cette thèse m'amène à formuler une série d'arguments sur les conséquences du vieillissement de la population pour la représentation. Au niveau individuel, je pose l'argument selon lequel l'âge peut influencer la formation d'opinions politiques et affecter l'accès à certaines ressources qui sont importantes pour la participation. Cela a différentes conséquences sur les préférences politiques et la participation des différents groupes d'âge, conséquences qui peuvent se transposer sur la représentation. Premièrement, si les préférences politiques des citoyens changent en raison du vieillissement de la population, alors les élus pourraient avoir tendance à vouloir représenter ces nouvelles préoccupations citoyennes pour des raisons normatives. Deuxièmement, une plus grande participation électorale chez les aînés pourrait affecter la composition des assemblées législatives, ce qui en retour pourrait avoir des répercussions sur les décisions prises au gouvernement. Troisièmement, le taux de participation plus élevé chez les aînés pourrait créer des incitatifs pour les candidats et les politiciens d'être à l'écoute des préférences de ces citoyens. Enfin, en étant plus impliqués dans des formes non-électorales de participation (comme les groupes d'intérêts, par exemple), les aînés pourraient réussir à faire entendre leurs préoccupations par les politiciens, et ainsi influencer les décisions prises par ces derniers. Ma démonstration empirique repose sur le cas canadien et comprend trois articles. Chaque article présente des analyses qui visent à valider certains aspects du cadre théorique. Le premier article porte sur l'effet de l'âge sur les préférences en termes de dépenses publiques. Les études sur cette question ont souvent été limitées à quelques programmes gouvernementaux ou à certaines années, ce qui rend difficile de tirer des conclusions à ce sujet. Mon analyse repose sur des données canadiennes tirées de sondages d'opinion publique menés entre 1987 et 2019 lors desquels les répondants ont été amenés à se positionner sur 15 enjeux. Mes résultats démontrent que les personnes plus âgées sont plus favorables à un maintien du statu quo en termes de dépenses publiques. Ils démontrent également que les aînés sont moins favorables aux dépenses en éducation et plus favorables aux dépenses militaires et de transport. Le deuxième article analyse le comportement électoral en résidences pour aînés. Cette question fait l'objet de très peu de recherche, et ce même si le nombre de personnes qui vivent en résidences augmente à travers le monde. Dans cet article, j'ai recours aux résultats électoraux dans les bureaux scrutin lors des élections fédérales canadiennes de 2015 et de 2019 pour analyser les différences dans la participation et le vote entre ces bureaux de scrutin et les autres bureaux de scrutin. Mes résultats confirment que la participation électorale est plus élevée dans les résidences pour aînés, tout comme l'appui aux partis conservateur et libéral. L'appui au NPD est pour sa part plus faible en résidences pour aînés. Ces différences sont quelque peu surprenantes, puisque le parti libéral n'était en général pas très populaire auprès des aînés en 2015 et en 2019. Les personnes âgées étaient aussi beaucoup plus défavorables au NPD que ce qui transparaît dans l'analyse des résidences pour aînés. Pour expliquer ces résultats, j'analyse les données d'un sondage mené auprès du personnel de résidences pour aînés pour savoir si certains partis ont plus souvent visité ces résidences que d'autres lors de la campagne de 2019. Je présente également les résultats d'entrevues menées auprès d'employés de partis politiques fédéraux. Bien que tous les partis aient un intérêt marqué envers les résidences pour aînés lors des campagnes, il semble que le parti libéral ait visité un plus grand nombre de résidences en 2019, surtout dans les provinces clés. Le dernier article analyse la représentation des aînés à travers les débats parlementaires. L'association entre le contenu des discours parlementaires et les caractéristiques des citoyens a surtout été étudié en ayant recours à un seul enjeu ou en se penchant sur un segment des débats, comme les périodes de questions. Dans cet article, j'ai recours à l'ensemble des débats parlementaires canadiens entre 1988 et 2015 pour analyser la correspondance entre le contenu des discours et les caractéristiques des citoyens. Pour ce faire, je présente de nouveaux dictionnaires crées à partir de l'index des Hansards. Ces dictionnaires contiennent des expressions qui me servent à identifier les mentions de trois enjeux dans les débats: l'immigration, le chômage et les enjeux liés aux aînés. Les résultats confirment que les élus parlent de l'immigration et du chômage lorsque ces enjeux concernent leurs citoyens. Or, les représentants élus dans des circonscriptions plus âgées ne discutent pas davantage des enjeux liés aux aînés. Enfin, les analyses démontrent que les élus plus âgés discutent d'enjeux liés aux aînés davantage que les autres députés, ce qui pourrait indiquer l'existence de représentation descriptive. Dans la conclusion, j'aborde différents mécanismes qui pourraient expliquer la faible association entre l'âge des citoyens et l'attention portée aux enjeux liés aux aînés par les députés canadiens. J'y aborde également les implications théoriques de chaque chapitre empirique pour l'étude du comportement politique, de la représentation et de la politique législative au Canada et ailleurs au monde. En présentant un cadre théorique original pour expliquer la représentation des aînés dans le contexte du vieillissement de la population, cette thèse contribue à créer de nouvelles opportunités pour les chercheurs qui s'intéressent aux liens entre l'âge et la politique. / The consequences of population ageing are manifold. They include transformations to the labour market, changing needs in terms of immigration and modifications to the traditional family structure. Population ageing also influences the demand for and provision of certain government services, like health care or old-age pensions. What is less clear, however, is whether the social changes brought about by population ageing also have implications for electoral politics and democratic representation. In fact, proponents of the sociological approach in political science do not all agree on the repercussions of population ageing for politics. On the one hand, some argue that age-group cleavages in party preferences are generally insignificant, so seniors, even though they are forming an increasingly large group of voters in many democracies, are unlikely to have an impact on electoral politics or policy output. On the other hand, others argue that age differences in policy preferences can actually affect policy decisions; for example, through electoral participation or interest group mobilization. The goal of this dissertation is to develop theoretical foundations and offer new pieces of evidence to advance this debate, thus contributing to the field of research on age and politics. More precisely, this dissertation tries to answer the following questions. Do older people have different policy preferences, when compared to younger people? Do seniors have a preference for some parties over others? If so, can the participation of older people in the democratic process contribute to the electoral success of these parties? Do elected representatives pay attention to the interests of their senior constituents? The theoretical framework presented in this dissertation leads to a number of arguments about the repercussions of population ageing for democratic representation. At the individual level, I argue that age can shape both the formation of political opinions and access to resources that influence political participation. This leads to different patterns of policy preferences and participation in older versus younger voters, which can have four implications for democratic representation. First, there can be a direct association between aggregate policy preferences and policy output. Some representatives may simply want to fulfill their normative role and be responsive to changing citizen preferences brought about by population ageing. Second, higher levels of electoral participation by older groups of citizens have the potential to influence descriptive representation, which can itself affect policy output. Third, these higher levels of participation create electoral incentives for political candidates to be attentive to older voters. Finally, by getting involved in different forms of non-electoral political participation, members of older age groups increase their opportunities to be in contact with politicians. This can enhance the importance of seniors' issue preferences in the eyes of representatives, thus fostering political responsiveness on these issues. The empirical demonstration relies on the Canadian case and takes the form of three articles. Each article presents pieces of evidence to validate specific aspects of the theoretical framework. The first article addresses the question of whether seniors hold different attitudes towards government spending than younger people. The literature on age and public spending preferences has been limited to a few policies or to short periods of time, which makes it difficult to draw comprehensive inferences about life cycle changes in opinions towards government expenditures. Using Canadian public opinion surveys between 1987 and 2019 that asked respondents to position themselves on fifteen policies, I find that older people are generally more favourable to the status quo when it comes to government spending. I also find that support for education spending decreases extensively over the life cycle, while support for spending on defence and transportation is more widespread in older age. The second article investigates political behaviour in seniors' residences. This question is largely under-studied, even though the number of people living in retirement communities or long-term care facilities is increasing in many countries. In this article, I rely on electoral results and polling station location data from the 2015 and 2019 Canadian federal elections to show that voters of seniors' residences vote more than other Canadians, and are significantly more supportive of the Conservative and Liberal parties. Moreover, as compared to other voters, voters of seniors' residences are somewhat less likely to support the New Democratic Party, but this difference is small. The disparities between party vote shares in seniors' residences and other polling stations are surprising, because older people in the general population were not largely supportive of the Liberals in 2015 and 2019. Seniors were also a lot less likely to vote for the NDP. To explain these results, I analyse data from an original survey conducted with the personnel of seniors' residences and qualitative data obtained from interviewing campaign workers. Evidence confirms that all parties are interested in visiting seniors' residences, but Liberal candidates visited a larger number of them ahead of the 2019 election, especially in battleground provinces. The third article analyzes the representation of seniors through parliamentary speeches. The association between the content of parliamentary speeches and constituency interests has mainly been studied using single issues or by analysing types of debates when legislators are less constrained by their parties, like parliamentary questions. In this article, I use a comprehensive set of parliamentary text corpora from the Canadian House of Commons to analyse congruence between the content of MPs' speeches and constituents' characteristics. To do so, I create an original topic dictionary based on the index of the Hansards to identify mentions of three policy issues in the debates: immigration, unemployment and seniors' issues. Results show that legislators are responsive to locally-relevant concerns when debating immigration and unemployment, but not when it comes to seniors' issues. However, results confirm that older representatives discuss seniors' issues more than younger representatives, which hints at the existence of descriptive representation. In the concluding chapter, I present potential explanations for the weak responsiveness of MPs to senior constituents. I also discuss the implications of each empirical chapter for the democratic representation of seniors, and explain how the dissertation contributes to the study of political behaviour, representation, and legislative politics in Canada and in the comparative context. By developing an original theoretical framework for the representation of seniors in the context of population ageing, this dissertations opens up new avenues of research on age and politics.