Master’s thesis deal with proposal of suitable insurance portfolio for selected company. It contains characteristics of the selected company and risk analysis that may cause difficulties and proposal of an insurance portfolio that is designed to help the selected company tolerate the most serious risks to activities through commercial insurance.

面對市場未來趨勢的不確定性，投資者可以運用「投資組合保險」的概念，既能保障原本所投資的資產價值，又可以參與市場上漲時的獲利。本研究以類神經網路來研究證券市場的現象，一方面是已經有許多類神經網路在財務分析上的研究成果，另一方面是其具有學習以及預測的能力。 本研究首先探討投資組合保險策略，接著再比較投資組合保險策略在不同市況下的績效表現，隨後提出兩個階段的研究架構，經過設計與建置，以類神經網路模型進行對大盤未來漲跌型態的模擬預測，並利用預測的結果，輔助投資組合保險策略的決策，最後並將研究結果與大盤績效做綜合分析比較。 本研究的資料採取自台灣證券集中交易市場，期間為1991年1月3日至2002年12月31日，共3306個交易日，取大盤每日交易之歷史資料，經過處理後建立資料庫。類神經網路模型具有預測未來大盤漲跌區間的能力，在本研究所提出的漲跌區間劃分方式上，其預測正確率達到55%，預測的結果與實際漲跌完全相反的比例僅10%，其餘的35%為相鄰區間的預測誤差，其預測能力有助於投資組合保險策略的進行。 經過類神經網路模型輔助而進行的停損策略（SL），其年報酬率以及Sharpe Ratio，在大盤下跌的期間，兩個績效指標衡量結果皆為正值（21.125%＞0以及980.493＞0），充分發揮保險功能；而在大盤上漲的期間，兩個績效指標衡量結果皆優於大盤（46.544%＞17.137%以及393.808＞110.069）。 在年報酬率與Sharpe Ratio之間，本研究主張在探討投資組合保險時應著重風險的衡量，因此經過類神經網路模型輔助而進行的固定比例投資組合策略（CPPI），搭配槓桿乘數M值的調整，在大盤下跌的期間，其Sharpe Ratio依然可以維持正值，達到保險的效果，保護投資人的資產免於損失；而在大盤上漲的期間，其Sharpe Ratio更是高於大盤，可以享受資產價值提昇的獲利。 / Facing the uncertainty of the market trend, an investor can use the concept of “ Portfolio Insurance ” to protect the value of his portfolio in bear market and earn the benefit from bull market. There have been many researches about applying Neural Network in the financial analysis and Neural Network has the abilities to learn and forecast. This research evaluates the performances of the portfolio insurance strategies in different market trends. Then two-stage research structure has been designed and built. The first stage is forecasting the up-and-down trends of the equity market index by Neural network model. The second stage is using the forecasted results assisting the portfolio insurance decisions. Finally, the results of this research have been analyzed and compared with the benchmark. The Neural Network is able to forecast the future up-and-down trends. The accurate rate is 55%. During the bear market（2002）, the annual rate of return and Sharpe Ratio of the stop loss（SL） strategy which is assisted by NN are both positive（21.125%＞0 and 980.493＞0）. During the bull market（2001）, they both outperform the benchmark（46.544%＞17.137% and 393.808＞110.069）. The annual rate of return is more important than Sharpe Ratio because the risk measurement is an important factor in portfolio insurance strategy. Sharpe Ratios of the CPPI strategy which is assisted by NN outperform the benchmark in both above mentioned bear and bull market. In short, the SL and CPPI strategy assisted by NN not only protect the value of the portfolio from losing in bear market but also gain profit in bull market, so they are the ideal portfolio insurance strategies.

Submitted by Sara Ribeiro (sara.ribeiro@ucb.br) on 2018-11-09T18:21:24Z No. of bitstreams: 1 JoseHenriquedeOliveiraVarandaDissertacao2018.pdf: 3107527 bytes, checksum: ea06abcabf1c014758cc880bcf0b0726 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Sara Ribeiro (sara.ribeiro@ucb.br) on 2018-11-13T16:00:57Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 JoseHenriquedeOliveiraVarandaDissertacao2018.pdf: 3107527 bytes, checksum: ea06abcabf1c014758cc880bcf0b0726 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2018-11-13T16:00:57Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 JoseHenriquedeOliveiraVarandaDissertacao2018.pdf: 3107527 bytes, checksum: ea06abcabf1c014758cc880bcf0b0726 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2018-07-02 / This study evaluates which modifications can restore the theoretical performance of dynamic asset allocation strategies that uses insurance and leverage, specifically those known as Constant Proportion Portfolio Insurance (CPPI), when confronted with realistic premises and scenarios. Simulations using GARCH models are applied to assess the effects of path dependency and volatility on those strategies and to evaluate how selected modifications mitigates those effects. These modifications are tested using the Farinelli- Tibilleti ratio and derivations, like de Upside Potential Ratio. As main finding, the modifications that mitigates path dependency can restore the theoretical performance of portfolio insurance with high significance, making those preferred strategies in relation to Buy-and-Hold (BH) or Constant-Mix (CM) for most investors in several scenarios. This work also presents a novel modification, adapted for the risk-free market in Brazil, that resulted in the best performing portfolio insurance strategy with great significance. / Este trabalho avalia quais modificações reestabelecem o desempenho teórico das estratégias dinâmicas de alocação de ativos com seguro e alavancagem, denominadas Constant Proportion Portfolio Insurance (CPPI), quando confrontadas com premissas e cenários realistas. São realizadas simulações de modelos da família GARCH, com parâmetros estimados do mercado, para exercitar os efeitos da dependência do caminho e da volatilidade nestas estratégias e avaliar como as modificações selecionadas ajudam a combate-los. A significância das modificações é testada pela medida Farinelli-Tibiletti, sobre tudo a combinação que resulta na razão Upside Potential, onde conclui-se que existem modificações significantes que são capazes de resgatar o desempenho teórico da estratégia CPPI, inclusive tornando-a preferível às estratégias clássicas Buy-and-Hold (BH) e Constant-Mix (CM) em certos cenários. Por fim, o trabalho apresenta uma modificação inovadora, derivada do ajuste à realidade do mercado brasileiro, que acabou por apresentar o maior nível de desempenho relativo do método CPPI, com elevada significância.

The selection of investment strategies and managing investment funds via employing portfolio insurance methods play an important role in asset liability management. Insurance strategies are designed to limit downside risk of portfolio while allowing some participation in potential gain of upside markets. In this thesis, we provide an extensive overview and investigation, particularly on the two most prominent portfolio insurance strategies: the Constant Proportion Portfolio Insurance (CPPI) and the Option-Based Portfolio Insurance (OBPI). The aim of the thesis is to examine, analyze and compare the portfolio insurance strategies in terms of their performances at maturity, via some of their statistical and dynamical properties, and of their optimality over the maximization of expected utility criterion. This thesis presents the financial market model in continuous-time containing no arbitrage opportunies, the CPPI and OBPI strategies with definitions and properties, and the analysis of these strategies in terms of comparing their performances at maturity, of their statistical properties and of their dynamical behaviour and sensitivities to the key parameters during the investment period as well as at the terminal date, with both formulations and simulations. Therefore, we investigate and compare optimal portfolio strategies which maximize the expected utility criterion. As a contribution on the optimality results existing in the literature, an extended study is provided by proving the existence and uniqueness of the appropriate number of shares invested in the unconstrained allocation in a wider interval.

A robust computational framework is presented for the risk-neutral valuation of capital guarantees written on discretely-reallocated portfolios following the Constant Proportion Portfolio Insurance (CPPI) strategy. Aiming to address the (arguably more realistic) cases where analytical results are unavailable, this framework accommodates risky-asset jumps, volatility surfaces, borrowing restrictions, nonuniform reallocation schedules and autonomous CPPI floor trajectories. The two-asset state space representation developed herein facilitates visualising the CPPI strategy, which in turn provides insight into grid design and interpolation. It is demonstrated that given a deterministic process for the risk-free rate, the pricing problem can be cast as solving cascading systems of 1D partial integro-differential equations (PIDEs). This formulation’s stability and monotonicity are studied. In addition to making more sense financially, the limited borrowing variant of the CPPI strategy is found to be better suited than the classical (unlimited borrowing) counterpart for bounded-domain calculations. Consequently, it is demonstrated how the unlimited borrowing problem can be approximated by imposing an artificial borrowing limit. For implementation validation, analytical solutions to special cases are derived. Numerical tests are presented to demonstrate the versatility of this framework.

A robust computational framework is presented for the risk-neutral valuation of capital guarantees written on discretely-reallocated portfolios following the Constant Proportion Portfolio Insurance (CPPI) strategy. Aiming to address the (arguably more realistic) cases where analytical results are unavailable, this framework accommodates risky-asset jumps, volatility surfaces, borrowing restrictions, nonuniform reallocation schedules and autonomous CPPI floor trajectories. The two-asset state space representation developed herein facilitates visualising the CPPI strategy, which in turn provides insight into grid design and interpolation. It is demonstrated that given a deterministic process for the risk-free rate, the pricing problem can be cast as solving cascading systems of 1D partial integro-differential equations (PIDEs). This formulation’s stability and monotonicity are studied. In addition to making more sense financially, the limited borrowing variant of the CPPI strategy is found to be better suited than the classical (unlimited borrowing) counterpart for bounded-domain calculations. Consequently, it is demonstrated how the unlimited borrowing problem can be approximated by imposing an artificial borrowing limit. For implementation validation, analytical solutions to special cases are derived. Numerical tests are presented to demonstrate the versatility of this framework.

確定提撥制是現今退休金制度潮流的趨勢，而在這個制度下，勞工最後所能累積的退休金總額及每月所能領到的月退休金額度和個人帳戶的投資結果有很大的關係，所以個人帳戶的投資績效成為勞工退休生活安全性最重要的因素。 本研究的目的在提供一個方法以評量投資績效，使得在每月提撥一定金額到個人帳戶的情形下，對於投資期間的經濟環境以隨機投資模型或情境分析模型加以考量後，可以在不同的投資策略及起始資產配置下，找到適合投資人的最佳投資策略及起始資產配置。在本研究中考慮了股票和長期債券兩種投資標的，而投資標的之投資報酬率變化則以隨機投資模型(Stochastic Investment Model)及情境分析(Scenario Analysis)兩種模擬方式為之，其中在隨機投資模型模擬的部分，不同的隨機投資模型對於經濟環境有不同的設定，也因此將得到不同的投資結果，本研究採用在英國學術上廣為研究的Wilkie投資模型(1986)及黃泓智等人於2005年證券市場發展季刊所推導之台灣投資模型，並利用蒙地卡羅模擬的方式來建構投資標的之報酬率。而在情境分析模擬的部分，則設定三種基本的投資報酬率趨勢，並假設三種投資報酬率趨勢服從均勻分配，而後考慮投資期間分成前後兩個時期，搭配而得九種情境。 本文將觀察不同的起始資產配置(股票資產配置之權重考慮由0%~100%，間隔為1%，共101組；債券資產的權重則為1-股票資產配置之權重，也就是100%~0%)，並以投資組合保險中三種常見的投資策略：買入持有(Buy & Hold；BH)、固定比例混合法(Constant Mixture；CM)及時間不變性投資組合保護(Time-invariant Portfolio Protection；TIPP)，作為投資策略。 在三種投資策略及每種投資策略有101個起始資產配置下，將可以得到303組不同的投資結果，而每一組投資結果中，都可找到個人帳戶於退休時的累積金額、在一定目標所得替代率下之破產機率，以及平均投資報酬率和投資報酬率之標準差，並將所得之投資組合報酬率之平均值為縱軸，標準差為橫軸作圖，找出效率前緣；也就是說，可以依個人帳戶持有人的風險，在其所能忍受的風險下，找到最適的起始資產配置及投資策略，及依這樣的起始資產配置和投資策略下所能得到的平均報酬。另外，更進一步以Sharpe ratio及Reward-to-VaR ratio、Reward-to-CTE ratio三個指標來衡量投資表現，找出在這三個指標下的最適起始資產配置和投資策略。 在前述中，都未考慮到交易成本對於投資結果的影響，但在現實的環境中，交易成本對於投資結果是有影響的，所以本研究也會在考慮交易成本下，找到情境分析和隨機模型下的投資結果及效率前緣，並找出三個投資指標的值來衡量投資表現。 / The defined contribution plan is the trend of retirement pension funds management, but under this plan, the total account values accumulated and the retirement benefits paid each month that labors can get are great related to the investment results of the individual accounts. That's why we said that the investment result of the individual accounts is the most important factor the labors care about. In this article, we will focus on the measure of investment results. We consider bond and stock as our holding assets, and set the investment rate of return in two methods, including scenario analysis and stochastic model. In the scenario analysis method, we set fourteen scenarios to reflect the changes of the investment returns of stocks. In the stochastic model method, we take use of Wilkie investment model to set the investment return rate of stocks and bonds and simulate enormous data to find the average investment rate of return. In each method, we will consider 101 different initial ratio of stock value and three different investment strategies: Buy & Hold(BH)、Constant Mixture(CM) and Time-invariant Portfolio Protection(TIPP). After setting the investment rate of return and investment strategies, we can find 303 different investment results under three investment strategies and 101 initial ratios of stock values. In each result, we can get the accumulated amounts, the income substitute rate and the average rate of return, and use the average rate of return as y-axis, standard deviation as x-axis to find the efficient frontier. That is, we can find the optimal investment strategies and initial ratio of stock value under the risk we can tolerant. We will also use Sharpe Ratio、Reward-to-VaR ratio and Reward-to-CTE ratio to measure the investment results, and find the optimal investment strategies and initial ratio of stock value basic on the three ratios. In practice, the transaction cost is an important factor that will affect the investment results, so we also find the investment results under different situations which had considered the transaction cost.

This Master´s thesis is focused on wide range of products concerning life insurance. It includes analysis of life insurance and describes the situation of this issue in the Czech Republic. Life insurance as a market product is described in detail in Česká pojišťovna a. s. The results from the mentioned analysis are applied on life insurance products and give suitable choices of this type of insurance to different group of clients.

Topic master´s thesis is „Insurance portfolio proposal of a selected business subjekt“. The work drala about portfolio proposal, where situation of this copany is analyse and gives recommendation how to lead it too.

Master’s thesis deal with proposal of suitable insurance portfolio for chosen self-employed individual. It contains risk analysis and proposal of an insurance portfolio, that is designed to help the self-employed individual tolerate the most serious risks to activities through commercial insurance.