Sparčiai kintant finansinių institucijų veiklos sąlygoms, didėjant finansinių rinkų nepastovumui bei veiklos mastams, atsirandant vis naujoms finansinėms priemonėms, o kartu su jomis ir naujoms finansinių institucijų rizikos rūšims, ypač išaugo prekybinio portfelio rizikos valdymo poreikis. Tą įrodo ir tai, kad po eilės solidžių ir pakankamai konservatyvių finansinių institucijų, tokių kaip Baring, Daiwa, Sumitomo, Metallgesellschaft, Orange County, Long Term Capital Management, bankrotų ar milžiniškų nuostolių patyrimo praeito amžiaus paskutiniame dešimtmetyje didžiosios pasaulio finansinės institucijos bei šalių centriniai bankai ėmė iš esmės griežtinti rinkos rizikos valdymo procedūras. Kaip parodė vėlesnė minėtų kompanijų istorijos analiz�����, pagrindinė jų nuostolių ar bankrotų priežastis buvo nesugebėjimas tinkamai valdyti prekybinį portfelį įtakojančios rinkos rizikos. Prekybinio portfelio rizikos valdymas tampa vis aktualesnis ir Lietuvos finansinėms institucijoms, ypač investicinių bei pensijų fondų valdytojams, investuojantiems į užsienio vertybinius popierius, denominuotus kitomis valiutomis nei litas ar euras. / The scientific problem of the dissertation is search of adequacy of the trading portfolio risk management methods and models to the current economic, technological, and informational circumstances of financial institutions. The main features of science novelty characteristic to this research are the following: (i)the comparative study on Value at Risk estimation methods allowed to make important theoretic conclusion that selection of Value at Risk estimation methods depends mostly on characteristics of the portfolio under investigation; theoretic recommendations regarding selection of Value at Risk estimation methods were suggested as well; (ii)the comparative study on performance of volatility forecasting models allowed to make important theoretic conclusion that selection of Value at Risk estimation methods depends on characteristics of the data under investigation and selected criteria for assessment of forecasting accuracy; in the context of risk management, the priority was given to operational rather than statistical accuracy assessment techniques in the context of risk management; (iii)the comparative study on risk adjustment measures allowed making important theoretic conclusion that selection of risk adjustment measures depends mostly on characteristics of the portfolio under investigation; theoretic recommendations regarding selection of risk adjustment measures were suggested as well.

The scientific problem of the dissertation is search of adequacy of the trading portfolio risk management methods and models to the current economic, technological, and informational circumstances of financial institutions. The main features of science novelty characteristic to this research are the following: (i)the comparative study on Value at Risk estimation methods allowed to make important theoretic conclusion that selection of Value at Risk estimation methods depends mostly on characteristics of the portfolio under investigation; theoretic recommendations regarding selection of Value at Risk estimation methods were suggested as well; (ii) the comparative study on performance of volatility forecasting models allowed to make important theoretic conclusion that selection of Value at Risk estimation methods depends on characteristics of the data under investigation and selected criteria for assessment of forecasting accuracy; in the context of risk management, the priority was given to operational rather than statistical accuracy assessment techniques in the context of risk management; (iii)the comparative study on risk adjustment measures allowed making important theoretic conclusion that selection of risk adjustment measures depends mostly on characteristics of the portfolio under investigation; theoretic recommendations regarding selection of risk adjustment measures were suggested as well. / Sparčiai kintant finansinių institucijų veiklos sąlygoms, didėjant finansinių rinkų nepastovumui bei apimčiai, atsirandant vis naujoms finansinėms priemonėms, o kartu su jomis ir naujoms finansinių institucijų rizikos rūšims, ypač išaugo prekybinio portfelio rizikos valdymo poreikis. Prekybinio portfelio rizikos valdymas tampa vis aktualesnis ir Lietuvos finansinėms institucijoms, ypač investicinių bei pensijų fondų valdytojams, investuojantiems į užsienio vertybinius popierius, denominuotus kitomis valiutomis nei litai ar eurai. Prekybinio portfelio rizikos valdymas yra labai aktuali tema ir atskirų šalių centriniams bankams bei tarptautinėms finansų sistemos priežiūros institucijoms.

Purpose: This thesis investigates the relationship concerning traditional safe haven assets, gold and US 10-year treasury bonds during periods of market instability, specifically during the economic concerns raised by the COVID-19 pandemic. It assesses the hedging and safe haven properties of these assets and their dynamic nature throughout two periods of unconventional monetary and fiscal policy measures by the Federal Reserve & US Congress respectively. Furthermore, the study explores a unique divergence between the price movements of the two assets, as well as potential changes in their properties and relationships. Theoretical Perspective: The study is anchored in theoretical concepts based on previous research such as Modern Portfolio Theory, Safe Haven Theory and Hedging Theory. These theories explain asset behaviours during financial turmoil and the relationship between gold and US 10-year treasury bonds during financial crises. The research gap and research questions were formulated based on the information gathered. Methodology: The research employs a quantitative, explanatory approach, anchoredin objectivism and realism, focusing on testing established theories through empirical data. Using a deductive methodology, it investigates potential changes in the dynamic between traditional safe haven assets, gold and US 10-year treasury bonds. Empirical Foundation: Based on a thorough literature review, this study integrates insights from past research and with new data emerging from the pandemic's influence on financial markets and subsequent policy action. The empirical evidence is integrated through quantitative analysis, leveraging ARCH/GARCH models and quantile regression to understand asset performance amid market shocks and policy changes. Conclusion: The findings indicate that gold did not initially act as a hedge against bonds but did so against other assets such as Oil, USD, and BTC during the height of COVID-19. In the recovery phase, this relationship shifted, with gold emerging as a hedge against bonds while its hedging capacity against Oil and Real Yield was negated. Additionally, gold's role as a safe haven against bonds was consistently unsupported across both periods studied. Furthermore, a portfolio analysis revealed a shift in investment strategy, from a balanced gold-bonds mix during the crisis to a sole preference for gold in the recovery phase, adapting to the evolving market conditions and policy changes.

The proposition of this dissertation is that superior capital budgeting solutions can be attained by not only analyzing projects individually but rather as part of a portfolio of projects that has the objective of maximizing the company’s range of multiple objectives, not only the economic benefit. The dissertation starts with a detailed study of current techniques and an assessment of flaws and shortcomings. This study concludes with the requirements that any new approach or model must address in order to improve on the current practices. Based on these requirements, a new model is developed based on the portfolio approach that integrates all the assumptions, constraints, project and variable interrelationships. An important feature of the model is that it selects its portfolio of capital projects in such a way that it optimizes support for the company’s multiple objectives, not only the economic objective. The dissertation concludes with the application of this model to a hypothetical case. It is concluded that, by developing and using this model, a company can improve the analysis required before capital budgets are finalized. / Dissertation (MEng (Industrial Engineering))--University of Pretoria, 2006. / Industrial and Systems Engineering / unrestricted