Inom den statliga förvaltningen skall ansvarsutkrävande fungera som en garant för tjänstemännens myndighetsutövning. Det har emellertid anförts kritik mot att ansvarsutkrävandet har minskat på grund av ineffektiva processer inom den statliga förvaltningen. Det tillsynes minskade ansvarsutkrävandet avser att tydliggöras utifrån två kategorier av teoretiska förklaringar; om det föreligger en slapphetskultur eller om ansvarsutkrävandet sker på ett mer ändamålsenligt sätt. Denna uppsats syftar till att undersöka om minskningen av ansvarsutkrävande vid tjänsteförseelser inom den statliga förvaltningen är reell eller chimär. Studiet av ansvarsutkrävande har fordrat en kvalitativ metod och sker genom en fallstudie inom Försäkringskassan på lokal nivå. För att undersöka vilka uppfattningar i ansvarsfrågan som styr tillämpandet av ansvarsutkrävande inom myndigheten har tio intervjuer genomförts. Intervjupersonerna representerar olika yrkesroller som innefattas i den ansvarsutkrävande processen. De har utifrån sina erfarenheter beskrivit hur ansvarsutkrävande i praktiken sker inom myndigheten. Det empiriska materialet har analyserats utifrån tre teoretiska perspektiv; det rationella, det kulturella och det symboliska. Vilket har fört oss till slutsatsen att minskningen är chimär då myndigheten funnit mer ändamålsenliga sätt att utkräva ansvar. Det tillsynes minskade ansvarsutkrävandet kan förklaras av att myndigheten väljer att hantera tjänsteförseelser med kompetensutvecklande insatser. / Within the functions of government agencies, accountability is a necessity for civil servants to ensure that appropriate levels of authority are being exercised. However criticism has been raised, that inefficient processes within the government agencies have led to reduced accountability. This is to be explained from two categories of theoretical explanations; whether there exists a cultural looseness, or if accountability occurs in a more utilitarian way. The purpose of this study is to examine when misconduct takes place in a government agency, if reduced accountability is imminent or chimera. In order to better understand the perception of accountability in government agencies, the question has been examined regarding The Social Insurance Agency on a local level. The study requires a qualitative method and a case study limited to The Social Insurance Agency. Ten interviews were conducted. The respondents represent several different professions, with differing levels of accountability. Their perceptions have illustrated how accountability takes form in a government agency. The empirical material has been analyzed through three theoretical perspectives; the Rational, the Cultural, and the Symbolic. The conclusion is that the reduction is chimera. The Social Insurance Agency have found more utilitarian ways to hold civil servants accountable for their actions. The seemingly reduced accountability can be explained by an agency´s choice to deal with misconduct by using competence to improve actions.This study is written in Swedish.

The behaviour of zoo animals can come to anticipate temporally predictable feeding times. However, there is a lack of consensus over the effects of such routines on behaviour and welfare. Few studies have been published in this area, perhaps in part due to methodological challenges. The current programme of work therefore aimed to extend knowledge on the effect of predictable feeding routines, and to develop a suitable methodology to overcome challenges. Prior to predictable feeding, tigers showed patterns of increased ‘active’ behaviours such as locomotion and pacing, and decreased inactivity. Geckos also showed increased ‘active’ behaviours such as locomotion and ‘stationary but moving head’ prior to predictable, compared to unpredictable feeding times, with significant differences between conditions (RSS = 0.059 and 0.047, p < .05). However, anticipatory patterns were not demonstrated for meerkats, which highlighted that other environmental factors may affect an animal’s response to temporal predictability (such as obtaining other food during the day, or signalled predictability). Studying patterns of behavioural change over time requires long periods of observation which is often not possible for researchers. The current programme of work argues that a measure which can be reliably used by many, relatively untrained observers is necessary to study predictability. The measure of ‘busyness’, a subjective rating of animal behaviour, was tested for reliability and validity. Busyness ratings showed good inter-observer reliability (ICC > .72) and correlated with traditional measures of behaviour. Busyness ratings demonstrated clear patterns related to feeding time and gave a useful compound measure of behavioural change. The use of multiple observers was extended to a citizen science approach, where useful data on anticipation in fish were obtained from aquarium visitors using a touch screen. The current programme of work successfully investigated the effects of predictable feeding routines on patterns of animal behaviour, alongside the development of suitable methods. The qualitative techniques developed here offer potential to increase the data obtained in future research into predictability and many other topics.

Approved for public release, distribution is unlimited / Performance of high resolution mesoscale models has been in a continuous state of refinement since their inception. Mesoscale models have become quite skillful in forecasting synoptic scale events such as mid-latitude cyclones. However, atmospheric forcing becomes a much more complicated process when faced with the challenge of forecasting near topography along the coastline. Phenomena such as gap flows, blocked flow winds and low level stratification become important to predictability at these scales. The problem is further complicated by the dynamics of a frontal passage event. The skill of mesoscale models in predicting these winds is not as well developed. This study examines several forecasts by the Coupled Ocean Atmospheric Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS) during frontal passage events for the Winter of 2003-2004. An attempt is made to characterize the predictability of the wind speed and direction both before and after frontal passage along the California coast. Synoptic forcing during this time is strong due to the effects of the mid-latitude cyclones propagate across the Pacific. The study's results indicate that the wind field predictability is subject to several consistent errors associated with the passage of fronts over topography. These errors arise due to difficulty in the model capturing weak thermal advection events and topographic wind funneling. The deficiencies in model representation of topography contributes to these errors. / Lieutenant, United States Navy

This thesis consists of three papers that make independendet contributions to the field of financial economics. As such, the papers, Chapter 2, Chapter 3, and Chapter 4, can be read independently of each other. In Chapter 2, we construct a simple measure of the aggregate illiquidity of hedge fund portfolios, and show that it has strong in- and out-of-sample forecasting power for 72 portfolios of international equities, U.S. corporate bonds, and currencies, over the 1994 to 2011 period. The forecasting ability of hedge fund illiquidity for asset returns is, in most cases, greater than, and provides independent information relative to, well-known predictive variables for each of these asset classes. We construct a simple equilibrium model to rationalise our findings and empirically verify auxiliary predictions of the model. In Chapter 3, I analyse the risk-shifting of hedge funds. Since the information on hedge fund holdings is very restricted, researchers have used the variance of returns as a proxy for risk. I propose a new method for measuring the time-varying variance. I use this method to investigate whether equity long-short hedge funds engage in risk-shifting driven by their past performance relative to their peers. I find that hedge funds which have strongly underperformed or outperformed their peers in recent months increase their exposure to the core strategy, i.e. the equity long-short strategy, and to non-core strategies. The risk shifting is mitigated for hedge funds with long redemption periods. Chapter 4 contributes to the equity premium prediction literature. I improve the forecast performance of typical single variable predictive regressions used in the equity premium prediction literature through Bayesian priors derived from consumption-based asset pricing models. To implement these model-based priors, I develop a Bayesian procedure which is rooted in the macroeconometrics literature. I find that the model-based priors can increase the explanatory power, measured by the out-of-sample R², of the single variable predictive regressions by several percentage points.

In the thesis we analyze sixteen commodity futures markets belonging to four families (energy type, grains, metals and other agricultural commodities) utilizing futures prices of front, back and roll futures contracts. As the tests for cointegration between front and back futures prices give us contradictory results we concentrate on roll contracts defined as the difference between front and back commodity futures contracts. We found that all commodity roll futures except natural gas and wheat futures exhibit long memory, which is usually connected with the fractal market hypothesis. Further, we employ specific ARMA and ARFIMA models and rolling window one-day-ahead technique to predict roll futures contract prices. Based on analysis of relation between resulting predictability and liquidity of roll futures contracts we concluded that lowest predictability is linked with the lowest liquidity among all commodities except metals and found evidence that predictability is positively dependent on liquidity among all commodities except metals, lumber, soybean oil and soybeans. The revealed dependence is strongest for energy type commodities. The relations and dependencies on the commodity futures markets are of high importance for all market participants such as hedge managers, investors, speculators and also for...

La glace de mer Arctique connaît actuellement de profondes mutations dans sa structure et sa variabilité. Le déclin récent de la couverture estivale de glace de mer Arctique, qui a atteint un nouveau record en septembre 2012, a relancé l'intérêt stratégique de cette région longtemps oubliée. La prévision de glace de mer à l'échelle saisonnière est ainsi un problème d'océanographie opérationnelle qui pourrait intéresser nombre d'acteurs économiques (pêche, énergie, recherche, tourisme). De plus, en tant que conditions aux limites pour l'atmosphère, la glace de mer peut induire une prévisibilité de l'atmosphère à l'échelle saisonnière, au même titre que les anomalies de température de surface de l'océan sous les tropiques. Nous présentons dans cette thèse la construction d'un système de prévisions saisonnières dédié à la glace de mer Arctique avec le modèle couplé CNRM-CM5.1, développé conjointement par le CNRM-GAME et le CERFACS. Nous passons en revue la stratégie d'initialisation, la réalisation et l'évaluation des hindcasts (ou rétro-prévisions). La communauté dispose d'observations de concentration de glace de mer, mais de très peu de données d'épaisseur à l'échelle du bassin. Afin d'initialiser la glace de mer et l'océan dynamiquement et thermodynamiquement, nous avons choisi d'utiliser la composante océan-glace de mer de CNRM-CM5.1, NEMO-GELATO. L'initialisation consiste à forcer NEMO-GELATO avec les champs météorologiques issus de la réanalyse ERA-Interim, sur la période 1990-2010. Des corrections appliquées aux forçages basées sur des observations satellitaires et in-situ nous permettent d'obtenir une bonne simulation de l'océan et de la glace de mer en terme d'état moyen et de variabilité interannuelle. L'épaisseur reste néanmoins sous-estimée. Quelques propriétés de prévisibilité intrinsèque de la glace de mer Arctique sont ensuite présentées. Une étude de prévisibilité potentielle diagnostique nous a permis de distinguer deux modes de prévisibilité de la glace de mer à l'aide du volume et de la structure sous-maille d'épaisseur. Un « mode de persistance » concerne la prévisibilité de la couverture d'hiver. La surface de glace de mars est potentiellement prévisible à 3 mois à l'avance par la seule persistance, et dans une moindre mesure à l'aide des surfaces couvertes par la glace relativement fine. Un « mode de mémoire » concerne la prévisibilité de la couverture estivale. La surface de glace de septembre est potentiellement prévisible jusqu'à 6 mois à l'avance à l'aide du volume et surtout de la surface couverte par la glace relativement épaisse. Ces résultats suggèrent donc qu'une bonne initialisation du volume et de la structure d'épaisseur en fin d'hiver permettrait une bonne prévisibilité des étendues de fin d'été. Les prévisions d'été et d'hiver présentent des scores particulièrement encourageants, que ce soit en anomalies brutes ou en anomalies par rapport à la tendance linéaire. Cela suggère une prévisibilité liée à l'état initial et non aux forçages externes imposés. L'analyse des prévisions d'été montre que le volume et les structures d'épaisseur de l'état initial expliquent l'essentiel des différentes prévisions, ce qui confirme l'existence du « mode de mémoire » malgré un fort biais radiatif. L'analyse des prévisions d'hiver suggère que l'étendue initiale explique une partie des différentes prévisions, un indice du « mode de persistance » des prévisions hivernales. Une analyse régionale des prévisions d'hiver permet de préciser le rôle de l'océan dans ces prévisions, et montre dans quelle mesure nos prévisions pourraient être utilisées de manière opérationnelle, notamment en mer de Barents / Sea ice experiences some major changes in the early 21st century. The recent decline of the summer Arctic sea ice extent, reaching an all-time record low in September 2012, has woken renewed interest in this remote marine area. Sea ice seasonal forecasting is a challenge of operational oceanography that could benefit to several stakeholders : fishing, energy, research, tourism. Moreover, sea ice is a boundary condition of the atmosphere. As such, as tropical sea surface temperature, it may drive some atmosphere seasonal predictability. The goal of this PhD work was to set up a dedicated Arctic sea ice seasonal forecasting system, using CNRM-CM5.1 coupled climate model. We address the initialization strategy, the creation and the evaluation of the hindcasts (or re-forecasts). In contrast to sea ice concentration, very few thickness data are available over the whole Arctic ocean. In order to initialize sea ice and the ocean dynamically and thermodynamically, we used the ocean-sea ice component of CNRM-CM5.1, named NEMO-GELATO, in forced mode. The initialization run is a forced simulation driven by ERA-Interim forcing over the period 1990-2010. Corrections based on satellite data and in-situ measurements leads to skilful simulation of the ocean and sea ice mean state and interannual variability. Sea ice thickness seems overall underestimated, based on the most recent estimates. Some characteristics of sea ice inherent predictability are then addressed. A diagnostic potential predictability study allowed us to identify two regimes of predictability using sea ice volume and the ice thickness distribution. The first one is the 'persistence regime', for winter sea ice area. March sea ice area is potentially predictable up to 3 months in advance using simple persistence, and surface covered by thin ice to a lesser extent. The second one is the 'memory regime', for summer sea ice area. September sea ice area is potentially predictable up to 6 months in advance using volume and to a greater extent the area covered by relatively thick ice. These results suggest that a comprehensive winter volume and thickness initialization could improve the summer forecasts. Summer and winter seasonal hindcasts shows very encouraging skills, in terms of raw and detrended anomalies. These skills suggest a predicatibility from initial conditions besides predictability due to the trend. Summer forecasts analysis shows that the volume and the ice thickess distribution explains a high fraction of the variance of predicted sea ice extent, which confirms the existence of the 'memory regime'. Winter forecasts also suggest the 'persistence regime'. A regional investigation of the winter hindcast helps precising the role of the ocean in the forecasts, and shows to what extent our system predictions could be used operationally, especially in the Barents Sea

L'évaluation de l'incertitude associée à la prévision numérique du temps à haute résolution, et en particulier l'estimation de la prévisibilité des événements de fortes précipitations en région méditerranéenne, sont les objectifs de ce travail de thèse. Nous avons procédé à l'étude de quatre sources d'incertitude contrôlant la prévisibilité de ces événements : la description des conditions d'échelle synoptique, la représentation des conditions atmosphériques à méso-échelle (notamment le flux de basses couches alimentant le système convectif), le rôle de processus physiques complexes tels que l'établissement d'une plage froide sous orage, et enfin la définition des conditions de surface. Pour quantifier l'impact de ces différentes sources d'incertitude, nous avons opté pour la méthode des prévisions d'ensemble avec le modèle AROME. Chaque source d'incertitude est étudiée individuellement à travers la génération de perturbations pertinentes, et les ensembles ainsi obtenus sont évalués dans un premier temps pour des cas de fortes précipitations. Nous avons aussi procédé à une évaluation statistique du comportement des prévisions d'ensemble réalisées sur des périodes de prévision longues de deux à quatre semaines. Cette évaluation, ainsi que celle de systèmes de prévision d'ensemble échantillonnant plusieurs sources d'incertitude simultanément, permettent d'établir une hiérarchisation de ces sources d'incertitude et enfin quelques recommandations en vue de la mise en place d'un système de prévision d'ensemble à échelle convective opérationnel à Météo-France / This PhD thesis aims at quantifying the uncertainty of convection-permitting numerical weather forecasts, with a particular interest in the predictability of Mediterranean heavy precipitating events. Four uncertainty sources, which impact the predictability of these events, were investigated : the description of the synoptic-scale circulation, the representation of meso-scale atmospheric conditions (especially the low-level jet feeding the convective systems with moist and unstable air), the impact of complex physical processes such as the setting up of a cold pool, and the definition of surface conditions. To quantify the impact of these four uncertainty sources, the ensemble forecasting technique was chosen, using the AROME model. Each uncertainty source is studied separately through the definition of dedicated perturbations, and the resulting ensembles are first evaluated over heavy precipitation case studies. We then proceed to a statistical evaluation of the ensembles for 2- and 4-week long forecast periods. This evaluation, completed with the design of ensembles sampling several uncertainty sources together, allows us to draw some practical tips for the design of an operational convective scale ensemble forecasting system at Météo-France

The Asian summer monsoon (ASM) is a high-dimensional and highly complex phenomenon affecting more than one fifth of the world population. The intraseasonal component of the ASM undergoes periods of active and break phases associated respectively with enhanced and reduced rainfall over the Indian subcontinent and surroundings. In this thesis the nonlinear nature of the intraseasonal monsoon variability is investigated using the leading Empirical Orthogonal Functions of ERA-40 sea level pressure reanalyses field over the ASM region. The probability density function is then computed in spherical coordinates using the Epaneshnikov kernel method. Three significant modes are identified. They represent respectively (i) the East - West mode with above normal sea level pressure over East China sea and below normal pressure over Himalayas, (ii) the mode with above normal sea level pressure over East China sea (without compensating centre of opposite sign as in (i)) and (iii) the mode with below normal sea level pressure over East China sea (same as (ii) but with opposite sign). The relationship with large-scale forcing is also investigated by stratifying the PCs according to representing indices. The regimes derived from spherical PDFs appear to be opposite under opposite large-scale conditions. EOF technique with...

This research consists of two essays. The first essay entitled” Stock Return Forecasting with Sum-of-the-Parts Methodology: Evidence from Around the World”, examines forecasting ability of stock returns by employing the sum-of-the-parts (SOP) modeling technique introduced by Ferreira and Santa-Clara (2011).This approach decomposes return into three components of growth in price-earnings ratio, earnings growth, and dividend-price ratio. Each component is forecasted separately and fitted values are used in forecast model to predict stock return. We conduct a series of one-step ahead recursive forecasts for a wide range of developed and emerging markets over the period February 1995 through November 2014. Decomposed return components are forecasted separately using a list of financial variables and the fitted values from the best estimators are used according to out-of-sample performance. Our findings show that the SOP method with financial variables outperforms the historical sample mean for the majority of countries. Second essay entitled,” Equity Premium Predictability under Regime Shifts: International Evidence”, utilizes the modified version of the dividend-price ratio that alleviates some econometric concerns in the literature regarding the non-stationary and persistent predictor when forecasting international equity premium across different regimes. We employ Markov switching technique to address the issue of non-linearity between the equity premium and the predictor. The results show different patterns of equity premium predictability over the regimes across countries by the modified ratio as predictor. In addition, transition probability analysis show the adverse effect of financial crisis on regime transition probabilities by increasing the probability of switching between regimes post-crisis 2007 implying higher risk perceived by investors as a result of uncertainty inherent in regime transitions.

Hedge fund activism announcements are associated with positive market reactions, and they introduce information asymmetry between insiders and outside investors. Target firm insiders have superior information about the campaign and play an important role in the campaign negotiation. This study examines insiders’ behavior as information asymmetry rises following the campaign announcement. Insiders increase trading in their own firms in response to the campaign announcement. These post-announcement insider trades have additional return predictability than insider trades in other times. Post-announcement insider buys predict higher probabilities of achieving successful campaign outcomes including management turnovers, increases in payout, and corporate restructurings, and higher value of these outcomes. I also find evidence that insiders use campaign resistance and trading interactively to achieve higher wealth gain.