Research Doctorate - Doctor of Philosophy (PhD) / The original contribution of this thesis is to demonstrate the use of a generalised and parsimonious approach to building individual-based computer models of ecological systems with the objective of advancing our mechanistic understanding of these systems. Two models are presented; the first, a model of predator-prey interaction, produces the expected non-linear dynamics and illustrates the importance of the timing of variable updating and individual variation for the persistence of the populations. This model is applied to two near-exclusive, cycling predator-prey systems, those of the Canadian lynx and snowshoe hare and the Fennoscandian mustelid predators and their microtine prey. The reproduction of the patterns found in the empirical data of these systems by the model suggests that the underlying mechanism of these predator-prey systems may be more simple than is suggested by other more complex models reported in the literature. The second model describes a system similar to that of a grazing herbivore in a two-dimensional space. The emergence of complex behaviour resulting from the use of space in the model, including metapopulation-like local extinction and re-population and the effects of corridors and edge qualities on the species are demonstrated. The inclusion of a graphical display of the two-dimensional space in the computer interface to the model reveals important details of system behaviour not evident in the population means, including herding behaviour. The latter is dependent on herbivore mobility and the re-growth of resources in an heterogeneous environment, and emerges in the absence of social behaviour. The problem of detecting herding behaviour automatically is addressed, including the development of qualitative and quantitative definitions of herding in the model.

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior / The aim of this work is to study the temporal and spatiotemporal evolution of a threedimensional system that describes a predator-prey dynamics, where the predator population can develop an infectious disease. Thus, the predators are split into two subpopulations: susceptible predators and infected predators. The rate at which susceptible become infected is described by a Holling type II functional response giving saturation when the number of susceptible predators increases. We assume that the disease develops only in the predators population and that all are born susceptible, ie, there is no vertical transmission. In the temporal evolution system, described by ordinary di�erential equations, we analyze the asymptotic behavior of the model, describing the necessary conditions for the occurrence of qualitative changes, relating them to the basic reproduction number of predators and the basic reproduction number of the disease. In numerical simulations these changes are graphically described, from the variation of the parameters that determine the predation efficiency of the infected predator and the mortality rate of susceptible and infected predators. Starting from the same local dynamics, we include spatial variation and consider movement by difusion to the population, obtaining a system described by partial diferential equations in which we can observe in addition to the temporal evolution of the spatial evolution of the system, or as populations are distributed spatially over time, when and how invasions occur in the domain. The temporal evolution of the system exhibits complex dynamics such as stable equilibrium, limit cycles, periodic oscillations and aperiodicity. The same dynamics are found in reaction-difusion system, considering that every point of the space represented by x displays a local dynamic . Spatially, invasions were observed in the form of wave fronts, making populations evenly distributed over time. / O objetivo central deste trabalho é estudar a evolução temporal e espaço-temporal do sistema tridimensional que descreve uma dinâmica presa-predador, onde a população de predadores pode desenvolver uma doença infecciosa. Desta forma, os predadores são divididos em duas subpopulações: predadores suscetí- veis e predadores infectados. A taxa com que os suscetíveis se tornam infectados é dada por uma resposta funcional tipo II, que exibe uma saturação conforme o número de predadores suscetíveis aumenta. Assumimos que a doença se desenvolve apenas na população de predadores e que todos nascem suscetíveis, ou seja, não há transmissão vertical. No sistema de evolução temporal, descrito por equações diferenciais ordinárias, analisamos o comportamento assintótico do modelo, descrevendo as condições necessárias para a ocorrência de mudanças qualitativas, relacionando-as ao número de reprodução básico dos predadores e ao número de reprodução básico da doença. Nas simulações numéricas essas mudanças são descritas gra�camente, a partir da variação dos parâmetros que determinam a e�ciência de predação do predador infectado e a taxa de mortalidade de predadores suscetíveis e infectados. Partindo da mesma dinâmica local, incluímos a variação espacial e consideramos movimenta ção por difusão para as populações, obtendo um sistema descrito por equações diferenciais parciais, com o qual podemos observar, além da evolução temporal, a evolução espacial do sistema, ou seja, como as populações se distribuem espacialmente com o passar do tempo, quando e como ocorrem as invasões do domínio. A evolução temporal do sistema exibe dinâmicas complexas, como equilíbrios estáveis, ciclos limites, oscilações periódicas e aperiodicidade. As mesmas dinâmicas são encontradas no sistema de reação-difusão, considerando-se que cada ponto do espaço, representado por x, exibe uma dinâmica local. Espacialmente, foram observadas invasões em forma de frentes de ondas, tornando as populações homogeneamente distribuídas com o passar do tempo.

Submitted by Erika Demachki (erikademachki@gmail.com) on 2015-05-20T18:30:38Z No. of bitstreams: 2 Dissertação - Lucyjane de Almeida Silva - 2015.pdf: 1357945 bytes, checksum: c6e7c0e30627101c90a6eb4ae00a5c4d (MD5) license_rdf: 23148 bytes, checksum: 9da0b6dfac957114c6a7714714b86306 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Erika Demachki (erikademachki@gmail.com) on 2015-05-20T18:32:39Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 2 Dissertação - Lucyjane de Almeida Silva - 2015.pdf: 1357945 bytes, checksum: c6e7c0e30627101c90a6eb4ae00a5c4d (MD5) license_rdf: 23148 bytes, checksum: 9da0b6dfac957114c6a7714714b86306 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2015-05-20T18:32:39Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 2 Dissertação - Lucyjane de Almeida Silva - 2015.pdf: 1357945 bytes, checksum: c6e7c0e30627101c90a6eb4ae00a5c4d (MD5) license_rdf: 23148 bytes, checksum: 9da0b6dfac957114c6a7714714b86306 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2015-03-06 / Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior - CAPES / In this work we study the global qualitative behavior of three predator-prey models. We analyze the existence of limit cycle and canard cycle and we investigate the kinds of bifurcation that can occur. In the first model, Gause predator-prey with a refuge, we analyze the effects of a prey refuge on the ecosystem qualitative behavior. Employing the carrying capacity of the prey population in the Gause Model with a refuge we obtain the second model, for which we analyze the effects of the carrying capacity and we compare the results. In the third model we consider the continuous threshold harvesting strategies ocurring when the predator density is above a certain threshold. We note that the model has a complex dynamics with multiple internal equilibria and different types of bifurcation. / Neste trabalho estudamos o comportamento qualitativo global de três modelos predadorpresa. Analisamos a existência de ciclos limite e ciclos de canard e investigamos os tipos de bifurcações que podem ocorrer. No primeiro modelo, modelo predador-presa de Gause com refúgio, analisamos os efeitos do refúgio para as presas no comportamento dinâmico do ecossistema. Empregando a capacidade de suporte para a população de presas no modelo de Gause com refúgio obtemos o segundo modelo, para o qual analisamos os efeitos da capacidade de suporte e comparamos os resultados obtidos. No terceiro modelo consideramos as estratégias de colheita com limiar contínuo que é aplicada quando a densidade de predadores está acima de um certo limite e investigamos o comportamento dinâmico global. Observamos que o modelo possui uma dinâmica complexa com múltiplos pontos de equilíbrio e diferentes tipos de bifurcações.

The paper is focused on the Predator-Prey model modified in the case of harvesting one or both populations. Firstly there is given a short description of the basic model and the sensitivity analysis. The first essential modification is percentage harvesting. This model could be easily converted to the basic one using a substitution. The next modification is constant harvesting. Solving this system requires linearization, which was properly done and brought valuable results applicable even for the basic or the percentage harvesting model. The next chapter describes regulation models, which could be used especially in applying environmental policies. All reasonable regulation models are shown after distinguishing between discrete and continuous harvesting. The last chapter contains an algorithm for maximizing the profit of a harvester using econometrical modelling tools.

В работе рассматриваются двумерная популяционная модель типа «хищник–жертва» с учетом конкуренции жертв и конкуренции хищников за отличные от жертв ресурсы, а также трехмерная популяционная модель типа «хищник–две жертвы» с учетом внутривидовой и межвидовой конкуренции жертв и конкуренции хищников за отличные от жертв ресурсы. Проводится анализ существования и устойчивости аттракторов моделей, строятся бифуркационные диаграммы и типичные фазовые портреты. Для стохастических моделей проводится анализ чувствительности аттракторов на основе теории функции стохастической чувствительности. С использованием аппарата доверительных областей: эллипсов и эллипсоидов для равновесий, а также полос и торов – для циклов, изучаются стохастические феномены: переходы между аттракторами, генерация большеамлитудных колебаний, вымирание популяций. Изучаются вероятностные механизмы вымирания популяций. / The thesis considers a two-dimensional population model of the «predator–prey» type, taking into account the competition of preys and competition of predators for resources different from the preys, and also a three-dimensional population model of the «predator–two preys» type, with intraspecific and interspecific competition of preys and competition predators for resources other than preys. An analysis is made of the existence and stability of attractors. Bifurcation diagrams and typical phase portraits are constructed. For stochastic models, an analysis of the sensitivity of attractors is carried out based on stochastic sensitivity function teqnique. Using the confidence domain method: ellipses or ellipsoids for equilibria and bands or tor for cycles, following stochastic phenomena are studied: transitions between attractors, the generation of large amplitude oscillation and the extinction of populations. The probabilistic mechanisms of extinction of populations are studied.