O café foi de extrema importância para o desenvolvimento e a dinamização da economia brasileira desde meados do século XIX, quando já ocupava a posição de principal produto da pauta exportadora brasileira, aí se mantendo por quase um século. Nos dias atuais, apesar de ter passado por diversos momentos de instabilidade, o Brasil ainda é maior produtor e exportador mundial de café. Atualmente, com a desregulação pelo Estado, há uma mais organização estratégica e maior cooperação entre os agentes. Como o café é um produto típico de exportação, seu preço nas diferentes regiões do país está ligado aos preços internacionais. Teoricamente, os mercados estando interligados, devem ser observadas tendências temporais muito próximas entre as séries no longo prazo. Posto isso, o objetivo do presente trabalho é avaliar a integração e a transmissão de preços do café arábica negociado na bolsa ICE Futures US, em Nova York, para as regiões produtoras de café arábica dentro dos estados de São Paulo (Mogiana e Paulista), Paraná (Noroeste) e Minas Gerais (Cerrado e Sul). Para analisar a relação de assimetria entre os preços de café das bolsas e do mercado físico utiliza-se o modelo descrito por Cânedo-Pinheiro (2012) para o mercado de óleo diesel no Brasil e por Cunha e Wander (2014) para o mercado de feijão no Estado de São Paulo. Como resultados, observou-se a presença de integração entre as séries de preços nas regiões estudadas com os preços da bolsa ICE Futures US, tanto no curto como no longo prazo. Todas as séries apresentaram elasticidade de transmissão de preços maior do que a unidade. A assimetria de transmissão de preços foi verificada em todas as regiões estudadas, ou seja, reduções de preço no mercado internacional são repassadas com maior intensidade para o produtor do que aumentos, exceto no caso do Sul de Minas Gerais, onde os ajustes foram simétricos. Apesar da existência de assimetria no curto prazo, o estudo verificou que no longo prazo, para todas as regiões, a assimetria tende a se inverter e mesmo desaparecer, dependendo do período. No curto prazo, os ajustes de queda são repassados mais rapidamente que os aumentos, enquanto que no longo prazo a velocidade de ajustamento para os aumentos de preços é maior do que para reduções, com exceção da região Mogiana. / Coffee was one of the most important products for the development and dynamism of the Brazilian economy since the mid-nineteenth century, when it held the first position of Brazilian exports, and kept as first for nearly a century. Nowadays, despite of having gone through several moments of instability, Brazil is still the largest coffee producer and exporter in the world. Currently, with the deregulation of the state, there is a more strategic organization and greater cooperation among agents. Because coffee is a typical export product, it´s price in different regions of the country is linked to international prices. Therefore, the price series have the same long term tendency, for being linked. The objective of this study is to evaluate the integration and price transmission of arabica coffee, traded on ICE Futures US in New York, to the producing regions of arabica coffee in the states of São Paulo (Mogiana and Paulista), Paraná (Northeast) and Minas Gerais (Cerrado and South). In order to analyze the asymmetric price transmission between international coffee prices and Brazilian markets, the rule model for the diesel fuel market in Brazil, was the one described by Canedo-Pinheiro (2012), and for the dry bean market in the state of Sao Paulo, the model used by Cunha and Wander (2014). The findings confirm the presence of integration between the price series in the regions studied and the prices of ICE Futures US in both short and long term. All series had elasticity transmission rates greater than unity. The asymmetry in price transmission was present in all regions studied, ie price reductions in the international market are passed on with greater intensity for the producer than the increases, except in South of Minas Gerais, where adjustments were symmetrical. Even though there is short-term asymmetry, the study found that in the long run, asymmetry tends to reverse and even disappear, depending on the period, for all producer regions. Although the drop settings are passed on faster than the increases in the short term, in the long-term the speed adjustment for price increases is greater than for reductions, except Mogiana region.

O café foi de extrema importância para o desenvolvimento e a dinamização da economia brasileira desde meados do século XIX, quando já ocupava a posição de principal produto da pauta exportadora brasileira, aí se mantendo por quase um século. Nos dias atuais, apesar de ter passado por diversos momentos de instabilidade, o Brasil ainda é maior produtor e exportador mundial de café. Atualmente, com a desregulação pelo Estado, há uma mais organização estratégica e maior cooperação entre os agentes. Como o café é um produto típico de exportação, seu preço nas diferentes regiões do país está ligado aos preços internacionais. Teoricamente, os mercados estando interligados, devem ser observadas tendências temporais muito próximas entre as séries no longo prazo. Posto isso, o objetivo do presente trabalho é avaliar a integração e a transmissão de preços do café arábica negociado na bolsa ICE Futures US, em Nova York, para as regiões produtoras de café arábica dentro dos estados de São Paulo (Mogiana e Paulista), Paraná (Noroeste) e Minas Gerais (Cerrado e Sul). Para analisar a relação de assimetria entre os preços de café das bolsas e do mercado físico utiliza-se o modelo descrito por Cânedo-Pinheiro (2012) para o mercado de óleo diesel no Brasil e por Cunha e Wander (2014) para o mercado de feijão no Estado de São Paulo. Como resultados, observou-se a presença de integração entre as séries de preços nas regiões estudadas com os preços da bolsa ICE Futures US, tanto no curto como no longo prazo. Todas as séries apresentaram elasticidade de transmissão de preços maior do que a unidade. A assimetria de transmissão de preços foi verificada em todas as regiões estudadas, ou seja, reduções de preço no mercado internacional são repassadas com maior intensidade para o produtor do que aumentos, exceto no caso do Sul de Minas Gerais, onde os ajustes foram simétricos. Apesar da existência de assimetria no curto prazo, o estudo verificou que no longo prazo, para todas as regiões, a assimetria tende a se inverter e mesmo desaparecer, dependendo do período. No curto prazo, os ajustes de queda são repassados mais rapidamente que os aumentos, enquanto que no longo prazo a velocidade de ajustamento para os aumentos de preços é maior do que para reduções, com exceção da região Mogiana. / Coffee was one of the most important products for the development and dynamism of the Brazilian economy since the mid-nineteenth century, when it held the first position of Brazilian exports, and kept as first for nearly a century. Nowadays, despite of having gone through several moments of instability, Brazil is still the largest coffee producer and exporter in the world. Currently, with the deregulation of the state, there is a more strategic organization and greater cooperation among agents. Because coffee is a typical export product, it´s price in different regions of the country is linked to international prices. Therefore, the price series have the same long term tendency, for being linked. The objective of this study is to evaluate the integration and price transmission of arabica coffee, traded on ICE Futures US in New York, to the producing regions of arabica coffee in the states of São Paulo (Mogiana and Paulista), Paraná (Northeast) and Minas Gerais (Cerrado and South). In order to analyze the asymmetric price transmission between international coffee prices and Brazilian markets, the rule model for the diesel fuel market in Brazil, was the one described by Canedo-Pinheiro (2012), and for the dry bean market in the state of Sao Paulo, the model used by Cunha and Wander (2014). The findings confirm the presence of integration between the price series in the regions studied and the prices of ICE Futures US in both short and long term. All series had elasticity transmission rates greater than unity. The asymmetry in price transmission was present in all regions studied, ie price reductions in the international market are passed on with greater intensity for the producer than the increases, except in South of Minas Gerais, where adjustments were symmetrical. Even though there is short-term asymmetry, the study found that in the long run, asymmetry tends to reverse and even disappear, depending on the period, for all producer regions. Although the drop settings are passed on faster than the increases in the short term, in the long-term the speed adjustment for price increases is greater than for reductions, except Mogiana region.

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No. of bitstreams: 1 andesurianedasilva.pdf: 2027818 bytes, checksum: f535a6d847389c90b185ca9271f14e9f (MD5) Previous issue date: 2011-12-14 / CAPES - Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior / Este estudo analisa a transmissão assimétrica de preços no mercado de gasolina brasileiro sobre uma abordagem diferente da existente na literatura nacional, qual seja: a análise desagregada em cidades; a relação dos ajustamentos de preços de gasolina no varejo (postos) em decorrência de variação de preços por atacado (distribuidor); e a relação dos ajustamentos de preços de gasolina no atacado em relação aos preços ministrados nos municípios formadores de preços. Entre as hipóteses sugeridas como principais determinantes destas assimetrias estão o custo de ajustamento e a existência de mercados não competitivos. O objetivo geral deste trabalho se configurou em analisar a dinâmica de preços da gasolina no varejo e no atacado no Brasil sob um enfoque regional, utilizando dados semanais para 134 cidades do país, referentes ao período entre maio de 2004 e fevereiro de 2011. Foram utilizando as abordagens de cointegração por correção dos erros com ajustamentos threshold (TAR) e momentum threshold e (MTAR). Para o caso do varejo, a principal conclusão, para amostra selecionada, é que, há evidência estatística de cointegração entre as séries de preços de gasolina a varejo e atacado em 103 municípios pelo modelo TAR e 96 pelo modelo MTAR. Quanto à questão da assimetria do varejo, tanto pela abordagem do Modelo de Correção de Erros Threshold (ECM TAR) quanto Modelo de Correção de Erros Momentum Threshold (ECM MTAR), concluiu-se que em 70 municípios houve ajustamentos simétricos dos preços. Em termos de distribuição espacial dos resultados do varejo, as regiões Sudeste e Sul apresentaram uma proporção maior de municípios com transmissão simétrica de preços. Este resultado é semelhante aos das regiões Centro Oeste e Norte. Entretanto, na região Nordeste houve uma inversão na proporção de cidades que apresentaram assimetria em relação às demais regiões. Em relação ao atacado, 115 cointegraram pala análise ECM TAR e MTAR com os municípios formadores de preços, os resultados sugerem um alto nível de integração entre estes mercados para os preços praticados pelo atacado da gasolina. Sobre a dinâmica de preços, os resultados mostraram que no atacado são mais fortes as evidências de assimetria com uma proporção com de 45% (52 municípios) dos municípios apresentando relação assimétrica pela abordagem ECM TAR e 27% (32 municípios) pela abordagem ECM TAR. Os resultados tanto do varejo quanto no tacado sugerem um baixo nível de eficiência no processo de transmissão de preços, mesmo os resultados da cointegração sugerindo uma relação comum de longo prazo entre os preços para os dois níveis de mercado, os resultados da assimetria mostraram que esta relação não se da de forma eficiente havendo diferenças nos ajustes de preços para diferentes choques (positivos e negativos). Assim, nem os postos de gasolina repassam de forma eficiente os preços ao consumidor de alterações sofridas no atacado, nem o atacado repassa aos postos de municípios periféricos os preços praticados em grandes mercados consumidores próximos de distribuidoras. / This study analyzes the asymmetric price transmission in Brazilian gasoline markets, discussing a different approach considering the national publications before, as the non aggregated analysis into the cities, retail gasoline price adjustments ratio in (gas stations) due to wholesale prices variation (supplier) and the wholesale gasoline price adjustments ratio comparing the municipalities given the price makers. Among the suggested hypotheses as major determinants of those asymmetries are the adjustment cost and non-competitive markets existence. This work aims to analyze retail and wholesale gas prices dynamics in Brazil under a regional approach, using weekly database for 134 municipalities, between May 2004 and February 2011 period. Cointegration approach for threshold adjustments and momentum threshold error corrections (TAR) and (MTAR) were used. The main conclusion for retail industry is cointegration statistical evidence between retail and wholesale price series in 103 municipalities and 96 by the TAR and MTAR models respectively. For retail asymmetries, TAR Error Correction Model and MTAR Error Correction Model approaches pointed to symmetrical price adjustments in 70 municipalities. In terms of spatial distribution on retail results, southeast and south had a higher proportion of municipalities with symmetrical transmission prices. This result is similar to the North and Midwest regions. However, there was a reversal aspect in northeast region. Cities presented asymmetry considering other regions. Considering wholesale market, 115 municipalities cointegrated by ECM TAR and ECM MTAR approach with the price makers municipalities. Results suggest a higher level of integration between these markets for the gasoline wholesale prices. By price dynamics analysis, asymmetry evidences are stronger with a 45% proportion (52 municipalities) introducing asymmetric relationship by ECM TAR approach and 27% (32 municipalities) by ECM TAR approach. Both retail and wholesale results suggest a low efficiency by price transmission process. Cointegration results also suggest a common long-term relationship between prices in retail or wholesale levels. This relation by asymmetry results is not settled efficiently. There are differences in price adjustments to different shocks (positive and negative). Thus, no gas stations transfers efficiently prices to consumers considering market changes and by last, nor the wholesale market transfers to peripheral municipalities gas stations those existing prices in big markets near the suppliers.

Thesis (M.Sc. ( Agricultural Economics )) --University of Limpopo, 2005 / The deregulation of agricultural markets in South Africa led to the establishment of a futures market for agricultural products, which was opened in January 1995. The marketing of Agricultural products act No. 47 of 1996 was passed at the end of 1996. The new Marketing of Agricultural Products Act (Act No. 47 of 1996) in South Africa has created an environment in which farmers, traders and processors are able to react positively to transparent prices that are market related. Agricultural futures markets serve several important functions, such as price risk management, price discovery and forward pricing. Economists around the world have studied vertical and spatial price relationships, and the behaviour of price changes in futures markets using asymmetry tests. Price asymmetry results in futures markets have a number of important implications. Firstly, traditional models in time series may be slightly biased when forecasting future prices, because they assume price symmetry. Secondly, asymmetry results may imply that the weak-form efficient markets hypothesis appears to be contradicted, thus indicating that past prices do affect current prices and do contain information. Lastly, if persistent asymmetry is found in futures markets, market regulators and policy makers may wish to use asymmetric information to improve the functioning and stability of futures markets through improved price limit and margin policies. Implementing policies iv accounting for asymmetric behaviour may help avoid market crashes and sudden unexpected price adjustments adversely affecting market participants. This study tests the existence of price asymmetry in South African futures markets for white and yellow maize, wheat and sunflower seeds using a dynamic price asymmetry model. The sum of coefficients test and the speed of adjustment test are used to determine whether or not prices move up in the same fashion as they move down, over daily and weekly data frequencies. Out of the four commodity futures markets studied over varying data frequencies, only daily wheat is price asymmetric. Wheat daily prices respond faster to price decreases than to price increases. The implication of the results is that past prices do affect current prices and contain information. Hence, the weak-form efficient market hypothesis appears to be contradicted for wheat futures market. Another important implication of the results is that implementing policies accounting for asymmetric behavior through price limit and margin policies will improve the functioning and stability of wheat futures market in South Africa. / National Research Foundation, and the University of Limpopo

Submitted by Stefania Grezzana Merenstein (stegrez@hotmail.com) on 2016-06-01T19:29:20Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Stefania Grezzana - Tese_vBiblio.pdf: 2120928 bytes, checksum: 746cbcd0ea0f6d71185c9ae0b5f8dc1c (MD5) / Rejected by Letícia Monteiro de Souza (leticia.dsouza@fgv.br), reason: Prezada Stefania, Favor alterar seu trabalho de acordo com as normas ABNT: 1: Contra-capa: O texto padrão de introdução deve ser em português. 2: Folha de assinatura: O texto deve, também, ser em português. 3: Agradecimentos e Acknoledgments: Favor fazer uma sessão de Agradecimentos em português e posicionar antes da folha de Acknoledgments. 4: Os títulos das sessões devem estar em caixa alta, negritado e centralizado. 5: A contagem de página deve apenas aparecer da Introdução a diante, e a mesma deve estar localizado ao lado direito da folha. Atenciosamente, Letícia Monteiro 3799-3631 on 2016-06-01T19:36:24Z (GMT) / Submitted by Stefania Grezzana Merenstein (stegrez@hotmail.com) on 2016-06-02T11:45:34Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Stefania Grezzana - Tese_vBiblio.pdf: 2125635 bytes, checksum: 80fe18aa661329f13965b2322ec441b2 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Suzinei Teles Garcia Garcia (suzinei.garcia@fgv.br) on 2016-06-02T12:18:44Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Stefania Grezzana - Tese_vBiblio.pdf: 2125635 bytes, checksum: 80fe18aa661329f13965b2322ec441b2 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2016-06-02T12:28:35Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Stefania Grezzana - Tese_vBiblio.pdf: 2125635 bytes, checksum: 80fe18aa661329f13965b2322ec441b2 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2016-05-13 / This dissertation is a conjunction of three essays on the Industrial Organization field, this empirical work is applied to the Brazilian retail gasoline market. The first essay investigates the existence of spillover effects from cartel activity. The second essay relates the well-known economic puzzle of asymmetric cost pass through to prices with the existence of horizontal coordination - cartels - in the relevant market. Finally, the third essay investigates the effectiveness of antitrust interventions inside the offenders and the consequences of its disclosure in related markets. / Esta tese é uma conjunção de três ensaios sobre no campo de organização industrial, o trabalho empírico é aplicado ao mercado brasileiro de revenda de combustíveis, especificamente gasolina. O primeiro ensaio investiga a existência de efeitos indiretos, repercussões para outros mercados, resultantes da atividade do cartel. O segundo ensaio relaciona o conhecido tema da literatura de repasse assimétrico de custos aos preços com a existência de coordenação horizontal - cartéis - nos mercados em questão. Finalmente, o terceiro ensaio investiga a eficácia das intervenções de defesa da concorrência dentre os infractores e as consequências da sua divulgação em mercados relacionados.

It's a subject of extensive discussion whether or not fuel prices on gas stations respond faster on an increase of oil price than on its decrease. Though this phenomenon is widely discussed in scientific literature, there's still no study focused on an asymmetric behavior of fuel prices on the Czech market. This diploma thesis fills the gap and explores the reaction of fuel prices in response to cost shocks in the environment of the Czech Republic. At the first section of thesis, there is described several economic theories explaining asymmetric reaction - especially the theories based on consumer behavior under the imperfect information assumption and the theory of tacit collusion according to which the price of previous period provides companies on oligopolistic market with a focal price for implicit cartel agreement. In the Empirical part of the thesis, I use an error correction model allowing asymmetric reaction to analyze if the retail fuel prices in the Czech Republic really react with different lag on positive and negative cost shocks. Based on several time series of gasoline and diesel prices, presence of asymmetric price reaction was proven between wholesale and retail level of supply chain.

Thesis (M.A. Agricultural Management (Agricultural Economics)) -- University of Limpopo -- 2020 / Potato is the most important vegetable crop in South Africa in terms of contribution to the gross value of agricultural production, export earnings and contribution to food supply base and food security in the SACU region. Despite the importance of this commodity, very little is known about the nature of price transmission between different levels of potato value chain in South Africa. The study aims to determine the nature of price transmission in the South African potato market. The objectives of the study are to investigate the existence of long-run equilibrium relationship between producer, wholesale and retail prices; to determine characteristics of the relationship; and to determine the direction of price causality. The study made use of Error Correction Model and Granger Causality test. The Empirical results reveal the existence of price asymmetry in the South African potato value chain. Furthermore, the results show that retail prices are more responsive producer price increases than they are to producer price declines. The Granger causality test shows that prices in potato value chain are determined mainly at the wholesale level (i.e. at the National Fresh Produce Markets). The study recommends further research focusing on price transmission for other basic food commodities and that the government retains and strengthens the existing food price monitoring system. / Department of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries

Thesis (M.A. Agricultural Management (Agricultural Economics)) -- University of Limpopo, 2022 / Wheat forms part of the most essential grain crop produced in South Africa after maize. In South Africa, most of the wheat produced is used mainly for human consumption while the remaining is used for animal feed and seed. The wheat industry in South Africa is undergoing severe pressure, with drastic decreases in the area planted to wheat production while imports of wheat continued to increase since the year 1997. This has in return affected the performance and competitiveness of the South African wheat industry at the international stage and its ability to produce enough to meet local demand, hence continuous reliance on imports which later affect domestic wheat prices. Regardless of wheat as one of the most essential grain crop produced in South Africa, very little research is done to evaluate the co-movement, magnitude and speed of price transmission from world to domestic wheat market in South Africa. The study intends to analyse the transmission of world wheat prices to the domestic wheat market in South Africa using average weekly prices for wheat for the period between January 2010 and December 2019. The objectives of the study are to determine the level of cointegration or long run relationship between the world wheat prices and the domestic wheat prices in South Africa, and to assess the degree of world wheat price transmission to the domestic wheat prices in South Africa, with the application of the Error Correction Model. While several authors indicted that long run relationship does exist between spatially separated markets, this study also finds evidence of cointegration or long run relationship between world wheat markets and the domestic wheat market in South Africa. The results confirmed this priori expectation, that in a long run world wheat prices are ultimately transmitted to the domestic market in South Africa. The results further indicate that the speed of corrections or adjustments towards equilibrium conditions were established to be fairly low for domestic wheat prices. The study recommends further research with more emphasis on vertical price transmission from wheat to wheat flour and other wheaten products such as bread and cereals. Further recommendation suggested by the study is that government intervention through implementation of Dollar-Based Reference Price and Variable Tariff Formula for wheat must continue with more caution and improved speed for a quicker response, once there is a newly triggered import duty. / Department of Agriculture, Land Reform and Rural Development

This dissertation contains three independent essays relating energy economics. The first essay investigates price asymmetry of diesel in South Korea by using the error correction model. Analyzing weekly market prices in the pass-through of crude oil, this model shows asymmetric price response does not exist at the upstream market but at the downstream market. Since time-variant residuals are found by the specified models for both weekly and daily retail prices at the downstream level, these models are implemented by a Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) process. The estimated results reveal that retail prices increase fast in the rise of crude oil prices but decrease slowly in the fall of those. Surprisingly, retail prices rarely respond to changes of crude oil prices for the first five days. Based on collusive behaviors of retailers, this price asymmetry in Korea diesel market is explained. The second essay aims to evaluate the new incentive system for biodiesel in South Korea, which keeps the blend mandate but abolishes tax credits for government revenues. To estimate changed welfare from the new policy, a multivariate stochastic simulation method is applied into time-series data for the last five years. From the simulation results, the new biodiesel policy will lead government revenues to increases with the abolishment of tax credit. However, increased prices of blended diesel will cause to decrease demands of both biodiesel and blended diesel, so consumer and producer surplus in the transport fuel market will decrease. In the third essay, the Regression - Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (REGSARIMA) model is employed to predict the impact of air temperature on daily peak load demand in Houston. Compared with ARIMA and Seasonal Model, a REGARIMA model provides the more accurate prediction for daily peak load demand for the short term. The estimated results reveal air temperature in the Houston areas causes an increase in electricity consumption for cooling but to save that for heating. Since the daily peak electricity consumption is significantly affected by hot air temperature, this study makes a conclusion that it is necessary to establish policies to reduce urban heat island phenomena in Houston.