This dissertation includes three essays on U.S. beef market. Each essay has looked at this market from a different point of view. The first essay investigates the price adjustment along the different levels of this market. The second essay discusses the impact of food safety incidents on export levels in this market. The third essay considers the environmental loading of U.S. beef market. A summary of each article is as follows. The first essay (chapter 2) analyzes price adjustment of the U.S. beef sector with a focus on the Great Recession. To this purpose, the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) and historical decomposition graphs are applied to monthly data. The results indicate that retail prices have lower speeds of adjustment than wholesale prices. Also, the magnitude of price adjustment in the presence of the Great Recession, as an exogenous shock, is different for each level of the U.S. beef market. It is concluded that, with respect to both the speed and magnitude of the price adjustment, the U.S. beef sector has an asymmetric price adjustment, pointing to the inefficiency of the U.S. beef supply chain. These results have welfare implications for U.S. beef consumers and producers. The primary objective of the second essay (chapter 3) is to quantify the impact of consumer awareness about beef safety on U.S. beef exports. To do that, an index is used to reflect consumer’s awareness about beef safety based on the publicized reports in the media. Quarterly panel data is applied to the top importing countries, Japan, South Korea, Mexico, and Canada for the period 2000-2016. Applying the gravity model, results show that a 0.8% reduction in U.S. beef exports arose from the foodborne-disease news. In addition, using impulse response functions derived from panel vector autoregressive (Panel VAR) estimation, results show that the negative impact of a shock in food safety news intensified after three quarters, and then diminished slowly over time. In order to regain consumers’ confidence and to compensate for the economic loss arising from a foodborne outbreak, bilateral cooperation among trade partners seems necessary. Investing in any scheme that minimizes the impact of food safety events, such as disease eradication programs, traceability systems, quality labeling, and third-party certification that conveys the safety message to consumers is suggested. The third essay (chapter 4) has two purposes. First, it quantifies the environmental loading of U.S. beef sector by calculating emission levels over the period 1970-2014. Beef cattle is one of the most emission-intensive sectors, which is responsible for 35% to 54% of total GHGs from livestock. Following International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) guideline, this study identifies three sources of emissions, including enteric fermentation, manure management, and manure left on pastures. Second, it provides an understanding of consumption-environmental connection related to the beef industry using time series techniques. Finally, it is suggested that providing information to the public regarding livestock and climate change relationship would be beneficial. This knowledge might help to avoid the catastrophic consequences of climate change in the future.

Analyzing different aspects of the supply chain aids in understanding how firms behave, interact and respond within an industry. Some concepts used to carry out this analysis include asymmetric price transmission, event study methodology and event costing analysis. Each of these topics is discussed in this dissertation, presented as a set of three separate papers. The first paper analyzes asymmetric price transmission and elasticities of price transmission at the farm-retail level for whole and two percent milk in selected cities in the United States. The theoretical core of this paper relies on a comparison between the traditional Houck approach and the error correction model proposed by von Cramon- Taubadel and Fahlbusch. We reject the null hypothesis of symmetry for each product and city under both approaches. We also find little evidence of statistical superiority between the classic Houck approach and the error correction model. The second paper uses financial market event study methodology to calculate the economic impact on the supply chain related to one of the worst disease outbreaks in the food industry in the United States. This event began on November 3, 2003, when the Associated Press reported a hepatitis advisory in the Beaver Valley, Pennsylvania. This outbreak directly involved two publicly traded companies: Prandium and Sysco. The market model is used as the main foundation of the economic analysis. There is no evidence of abnormal rates of return or spillover effects in relation to the outbreak. However, there is evidence that volatility of returns increases after the event. The third paper develops a general conceptual economic module to quantify the impact of an animal disease outbreak. This study develops a generic economic module, which estimates cost in the face of a simulated animal disease outbreak under different mitigation strategies. This model was subsequently applied in a case study: a hypothetical case of a foot-and-mouth (FMD) outbreak in the Texas Panhandle analyzed under five different ex-post mitigation strategies. The results show that the most effective strategy is to slaughter and not to vaccinate. We conclude that analyzing the supply chain is important in understanding how markets behave.

No description available.

The agricultural sector plays a major role in European economies. Of course, it is also very important to the labour market, the income of the poorest people and food security. The food crisis of 2008 has raised numerous questions about the impact of such variability on welfare and the economic sector which directly concerns the agricultural sector. Given the importance of the agricultural sector to the economies, if governments are to take adequate measures to ensure food security, they need to have a good understanding of the functioning of their markets. Agricultural markets have been one of the central targets for the analysis of price transmission. The interest in price transmission has recently gained attention and the amount of studies on this subject is rapidly growing. The price is considered to be the principal mechanism connecting the different stages of the food supply chain. The present thesis studies the existence of asymmetry in the price transmission along the supply chain in the European Countries of 27. In other words, this study addresses the questions: How much and how fast are price changes passed through between the different stages of the chain? Do increases in producer prices lead to immediate increases in consumer prices and also decreases in producer prices take time to be passed down to the consumers? This document aims to check about adjustment of prices in the food supply chain, which is an important characteristic of the functioning of the markets. / Το ενδιαφέρον για τη μετάδοση των τιμών έχει κερδίσει την προσοχή και ο αριθμός των μελετών για το θέμα αυτό έχει αυξηθεί σημαντικά τα τελευταία χρονιά. Η τιμή θεωρείται ότι είναι ο κύριος μηχανισμός που συνδέει τα διάφορα στάδια της αλυσίδας εφοδιασμού τροφίμων. Η παρούσα εργασία μελετά την ύπαρξη της ασυμμετρίας στη μετάδοση των τιμών κατά μήκος της αλυσίδας εφοδιασμού τροφίμων στις ευρωπαϊκές χώρες των 27. Με άλλα λόγια, η μελέτη αυτή εξετάζει τα ερωτήματα: Πόσο και πόσο γρήγορα οι αλλαγές των τιμών περνούν μέσα από τα διάφορα στάδια της αλυσίδας ; Εάν οι αυξήσεις στις τιμές παραγωγού οδηγούν σε άμεση αύξηση των τιμών καταναλωτή, επίσης εάν οι μειώσεις στις τιμές παραγωγού χρειάζονται χρόνο για να περάσουν στους καταναλωτές; Το παρόν έγγραφο έχει ως στόχο να ελέγξει την προσαρμογή των τιμών στην αλυσίδα εφοδιασμού τροφίμων η οποία είναι ένα σημαντικό χαρακτηριστικό της λειτουργίας των αγορών. Οι τιμές των τροφίμων έχουν εμφανίσει ακραίες διακυμάνσεις τα τελευταία χρόνια, φτάνοντας σε εξαιρετικά υψηλά επίπεδα κατά το δεύτερο εξάμηνο του 2007 και τους πρώτους μήνες του 2008, προτού πέσουν ραγδαία κατά τη διάρκεια της οικονομικής κρίσης. Αυτή η αυξημένη μεταβλητότητα, τονίζει την ανάγκη να αυξηθεί η αποτελεσματικότητα της αλυσίδας εφοδιασμού τροφίμων . Οι τιμές των εμπορευμάτων είναι οι πιο σημαντικοί καθοριστικοί παράγοντες της παγκόσμιας οικονομικής απόδοσης. Οι επιχειρηματικές αποφάσεις σχετικά με την παραγωγή, την κατανάλωση και την εμπορία των επιχειρήσεων, συνδέονται άμεσα με τις αγορές εμπορευμάτων. Στην εργασία αυτή , αρχικά αναφέρω συνοπτικά τι είναι η μη συμμετρική μετάδοση των τιμών , τα είδη ασυμμετρίας , τους παράγοντες που προκαλούν ασυμμετρία καθώς και τα αποτελέσματα της έρευνας που έκανα. Οι τιμές που χρησιμοποίησα στην ανάλυση αυτή είναι μηνιαίοι δείκτες με έτος βάσης το 2010, από τον Ιανουάριο του 2005 μέχρι τον Ιανουάριο του 2014. Χρησιμοποίησα την βάση δεδομένων της Eurostat για τους δείκτες τιμών των τροφίμων και για το πετρέλαιο την βάση δεδομένων Mundi.

This thesis examines some of the economic effects associated with the elimination of single desk marketing on Canadian feed barley exports. It focuses on the interactions between Canadian and US spot feed barley markets in transition after this policy change in Canada. A brief introduction about world and regional barley markets is provided. The role of the CWB single desk and its role in Canadian barley marketing are discussed to motivate analysis about the effects of its absence. This study postulates there should be no significant change in Canada–US regional feed barley markets, based on conclusions from previous studies. This postulate is broken down into three testable hypotheses under the framework of spatial price analysis. With respect to the Canada–US regional feed barley market as single desk marketing was eliminated in Canada; (1) There should not be a significant structural break in the feed barley prices; (2) There should not be a significant change in market integration; (3) There should not be a significant change in the direction of price transmission. To test these hypotheses, the study employs econometric tests on Canadian and US prices spot prices for substitutable feed barley. The hypotheses are tested using a structural break test, a cointegration test, a Granger causality test, and associated impulse response functions. Since structural break tests do not find significant breakpoints in the data, the first hypothesis cannot be rejected. Next, the sample is split into two subsamples at the date when single desk was eliminated. An Engle-Granger procedure and the Johansen procedure are used to test cointegrating relationships between the variables. The results do not allow us to reject the second hypothesis of no significant change in market integration. In contrast, the third hypothesis is rejected, as a significant change is uncovered using the Granger causality test. Simulated impulse responses are also consistent with this finding.

This thesis develops a new methodological approach to test for threshold cointegration. It determines the threshold locations, the number of thresholds, and tests the null hypothesis of a unit root against the alternative of a stationary threshold process using p-values based on a residual-based block bootstrap for the nonlinear threshold autoregressive specification (TAR). Chapter 2 describes the methodological approach which combines Gonzalo and Pitarakis (2002) and Seo (2008). Chapter 3 employs Monte Carlo analysis to investigate the properties of the new approach. The results indicate that the methodology performs well and is suited for application to real world time series. Chapter 4 applies the new approach in combination with a threshold error correction model (ECM) to determine the spatial relationships among three crude oil prices: WTI, Brent, and Oman, from 2008 through 2011. The results indicate that the crude oil benchmarks are tied together by a long run relationship; however, the recent reversal in price premium between the two main crude oil benchmarks, WTI and Brent, is an anomaly that has resulted in a time period in which the series do not have a tendency to move back toward their long run relationship. Chapter 5 applies the new approach, in combination with threshold ECMs, with regime switches being triggered by the upstream markup margin to determine the vertical relationships between the crude oil, rack, and retail gasoline prices for six cities across North America. The results using both daily and weekly data between 2008 and 2011 suggest that upstream and downstream prices are cointegrated. There is evidence of band-TAR in which the crude, rack, and retail prices are free to diverge until the markup margin is squeezed or stretched beyond a lower or upper threshold. This suggests that abnormally high margins cannot be sustained indefinitely. The threshold ECMs indicate that there is no systematic relationship between the speed of adjustment and the markup margin; however, the residuals exhibit a leverage effect in which volatility and price changes are negatively correlated. Chapter 6 concludes with a summary of Chapters 2 through 5 and makes suggestions for future research. / Thesis (Ph.D, Management) -- Queen's University, 2012-06-17 22:53:24.922

O mercado do milho no Brasil tem demonstrado algumas mudanças nos últimos anos aumentando sua importância no agronegócio. Por esse motivo, tem sido maior a necessidade de estudo de suas características. O objetivo da presente dissertação consiste em verificar como se dá a transmissão de preços entre os mercados regionais dessa commodity no Brasil a nível de produtor, com foco nos estados da região Sul e Centro-Oeste, devido à sua importância para a produção nacional. Além disso, também foi buscado analisar como os preços dos estados analisados reagem ao preço cotado na bolsa de valores para saber qual sua relação com o mercado externo. O método de pesquisa utilizado foi: teste de raiz unitária; teste de cointegração; vetor de correção de erro; teste de causalidade de Granger e teste de impulso-resposta. Os resultados do teste de cointegração indicam que há transmissão de preços entre todos os estados analisados, bem como os estados respondem a oscilações de preços do mercado externo a longo prazo. O fato de existir cointegração entre os estados é condição suficiente para se afirmar que existe relação linear de equilíbrio para a qual o sistema converge, validando os pressupostos da Lei do Preço Único e a integração. Todos os estados apresentaram resposta significativa a mudanças de preços no estado de Santa Catarina pelo vetor de correção de erro (VEC), mostrando que esse estado tem forte influência na formação de preços dos estados das duas regiões analisadas. No curto prazo foi observado que os estados de Mato Grosso e Rio Grande do Sul não recebem influência direta das oscilações de preços dos outros mercados, enquanto os estados de Paraná, Santa Catarina e Goiás parecem ser interdependentes a curto prazo, pois apresentam relativa correlação. Além disso, a função impulso resposta demonstra também que um impulso nos preços do estado de Santa Catarina gera resposta significativa nos preços dos outros estados de forma geral, e um impulso no preço do estado de Goiás também gera uma reação forte no preço do estado do Mato Grosso. / The corn market in Brazil has shown some changes in recent years increasing its importance in agribusiness. For this reason has increased the need for more studies related to this market’s characteristics . The objective of this dissertation is to check how is the price transmission between regional markets in Brazil at producer level for this commodity, focusing on states of the South and Midwest of the country, because of its importance to the national production. Furthermore, it was also sought to analyze how the prices of the analyzed states react to the price quoted on the stock market, looking for understanding how is its relationship with the external market. The research method used was: the unit root test , cointegration test , vector error correction; Granger causality test and impulse response test. The result of the cointegration test indicates that there is price transmission between all the states analyzed as well as states respond to price fluctuations on the stock market in the long run . The existence of cointegration between the states is sufficient to say that there is a linear equilibrium relationship to which converges the sistem, validating the assumptions of the Law of One Price and the integration condition. All states showed significant responses to price changes in the state of Santa Catarina by the vector error correction ( VEC ) , showing that this state has a strong influence on the pricing of the states on the two regions. In the short term it was observed that the states of Mato Grosso and Rio Grande do Sul receive no direct influence from the prices of other markets, while the states of Paraná, Santa Catarina and Goiás seem to be interdependent in the short term because they present a correlation. As well, the impulse response function also shows that a surge in prices in the state of Santa Catarina generates a significant response in prices of other states in general, and a boost in the price of Goias also generates a strong reaction in the price of Mato Grosso.

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento CientÃfico e TecnolÃgico / O custo da cesta bÃsica influencia o salÃrio mÃnimo do trabalhador brasileiro,os resultados deste estudo podem, nesse sentido, evidenciar nÃo somente o comportamento de preÃos bÃsicos do mercado, mas tambÃm da tendÃncia e do comportamento do salÃrio mÃnimo, alÃm das relaÃÃes causais e de transmissÃo de preÃos entre as cidades. Nesse contexto, reveste-se de importÃncia estudos que buscam verificar a integraÃÃo espacial entre os preÃos da cesta bÃsica, aplicado Ãs capitais do Brasil. O presente trabalho abrange sÃries temporais mensais dos preÃos da cesta bÃsica das capitais do nordeste brasileiro AracajÃ, Fortaleza, Natal, JoÃo Pessoa, Recife e Salvador e taxas do mercado financeiro (taxa de juros, taxa de inflaÃÃo e taxa de cÃmbio) compreendendo do perÃodo de julho de 1994 a dezembro de 2013. A pesquisa tem como hipÃtese central os preÃos dos alimentos que compÃem a cesta bÃsica do Decreto-Lei 399/38 entre as capitais da RegiÃo Nordeste do Brasil sÃo integrados e, como objetivo geral verificar a integraÃÃo entre os mercados da cesta bÃsica nas principais capitais do Nordeste do Brasil e objetivos especÃficos analisar a causalidade e transmissÃo de preÃos entre a cesta bÃsica das seis capitais do Nordeste do Brasil e avaliar a causalidade entre as taxa de juros, taxa de inflaÃÃo, taxa de cÃmbio e os preÃos da cesta bÃsica das seis capitais do Nordeste do Brasil. A pesquisa trabalhou anÃlise bivariada e multivariada com metodologias de causalidade e transmissÃo de preÃos avaliando em princÃpio a estacionariedade com os testes ADF e KPSS, co-integraÃÃo com o teste de Engle e Granger baseado em Johansen, transmissÃo de preÃos atravÃs do vetor de correÃÃo de erros (VEC), conforme necessÃrio, por fim o teste de causalidade de Granger. Os resultados para uma anÃlise bivariada mostraram que as sÃries sÃo estacionÃrias, possuindo co-integraÃÃo de ordem (I), mostrando atravÃs da anÃlise multivariada a transmissÃo de preÃos entre as capitais Salvador e Fortaleza para com Aracaju, Natal, Recife e JoÃo Pessoa. Para o teste de causalidade os mercados que mostraram ter uma relaÃÃo de causa e efeito foi Aracajà x Salvador e, para as taxas de mercado financeiro, a taxa de juros possui intensa transmissÃo de informaÃÃes e operaÃÃes arbitrÃrias, a taxa de cÃmbio nenhuma relaÃÃo significativa e a taxa de inflaÃÃo relaÃÃo causal proporcional entre intensidade das informaÃÃes. / The cost of the basic food basket influences the minimum wage of the Brazilian worker, the results of this study may, in these terms, reflect not only the behavior of basic market prices, but also the trend and behavior of the minimum wage, in addition to causal relationships and the transmission of prices between cities.Highlighting, in this context, the importance of studies that seek to verify the spatial integration between prices of basic food baskets, applied in the capitalsof Brazil.This study covers a monthly time-series of prices of the basic food baskets in the capitalsof the northeast of Brazil:AracajÃ, Fortaleza, Natal, JoÃo Pessoa, Recife and Salvador and the financial market rates (interest rate, inflation rate and exchange rate) in the July 1994 to December 2013 period.The study has as central hypothesis to verify if the prices of foodstuffs, which compose the basic food basket according to Decree-Law 399/38, are integrated between the capitals in the Northeast Region of Brazil, as general objective to verifythe integration between markets of the basic food basket in the main capitals in the Northeast of Brazil, and as specific objectives to analyze causality and transmission of prices of the basic food basket in the six capitals in the Northeast of Brazil and assess causality between interest rates, inflation rates, exchange rates and prices of the basic food baskets in the six capitals in the Northeast of Brazil. The study used bivariate and multivariate analysis with causality and transmission of price methods;initially assessing stationarity with ADF and KPSS tests, co-integration with the Engle-Granger test based on Johansen, price transmission using vector error correction (VEC) models, as necessary, and finally the Granger causality test.The results from the bivariate analysis showed that the series are stationary, with the co-integration of order (I), showing the transmission of prices, through multivariate analysis, between the capitals:Salvador and Fortaleza to Aracaju, Natal, Recife andJoÃo Pessoa. For the causality test the markets that presented a cause-effect relationship were Aracajà x Salvador, and for financial market rates, the interest rate has an intense transmission of information and arbitrary operations, the exchange rate has no significant relationship and the inflation rate has causal relationship proportional to the intensity of information

Submitted by Marilene Donadel (marilene.donadel@unioeste.br) on 2017-10-31T20:29:18Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Cleber_E_Graef_2017.pdf: 1369308 bytes, checksum: 1472cb369401446a8991d6bfd0e3e046 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2017-10-31T20:29:18Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Cleber_E_Graef_2017.pdf: 1369308 bytes, checksum: 1472cb369401446a8991d6bfd0e3e046 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2017-07-27 / Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior - CAPES / In this research, the price transmission between international and Brazilian sugar market was analyzed, from January 2003 to May 2016. The principles of market integration, price transmission and the framework of the Law of One Price, using time series econometric models (Augmented Dickey-Fuller test, Granger causality, Johansen cointegration test, and variance decomposition of prediction errors) were used as a theoretical approach. The results indicated a long-term relationship between international and domestic sugar prices; however, it was not observed for exchange rate. Thus, in the long-term, a variation of 1% in the sugar international price implies a variation of 0.42% in the domestic price, resulting an inelastic relation. The results did not validate the Law of One Price. / Neste trabalho foi analisada a transmissão de preços entre os mercados internacional e brasileiro de açúcar, no período de janeiro de 2003 a maio de 2016. Como approach teórico foram utilizados os princípios da integração de mercado, da transmissão de preços e a abordagem da Lei do Preço Único, via modelos econométricos de séries temporais (teste Dickey-Fuller aumentado, causalidade de Granger, cointegração de Johansen, decomposição da variância dos erros de previsão). Os resultados indicaram relacionamento de longo prazo entre os preços internacionais e domésticos do açúcar, porém, o mesmo não se verificou com a taxa de câmbio. Assim, no longo prazo, uma variação de 1% no preço internacional do açúcar implica em uma variação 0,42% no preço doméstico, configurando uma relação inelástica. Os resultados não validaram a Lei do Preço Único.

Doctor of Philosophy / Department of Agricultural Economics / Glynn T. Tonsor / The U.S. beef industry is comprised of multiple, vertically connected segments. Beginning at the cow-calf level, cattle move through the industry to backgrounding/stocker operations, feedlots, and then to beef packers. The beef produced then continues to move through the marketing channel from beef packers to wholesalers and on to multiple final consumer outlets. Each level of the beef industry has both distinct and related economic issues. This dissertation contains three essays on beef cattle economics. Essay 1 focuses on price and animal health risk management at the feedlot level. Essays 2 and 3 explore how upstream demand changes impact primary beef suppliers. The objective of Essay 1 is to determine if feedlot operators manage price risk and animal health risk as two separate and independent risks or if they manage them jointly. The animal health attribute of interest is purchasing feeder steers from a single known source versus an auction with unknown background. The output price risk mitigation tools are futures contracts, forward contracts, other, and accept cash price at time of sale. Primary data is collected using an online survey administered to feedlot operators. Participants are placed in forward looking, decision making scenarios utilizing a split-sample block design. Evidence of a relationship between animal health risk and output price risk management is mixed. Ricardian rent theory (RRT) is tested in Essay 2 to determine if complete pass-through occurs from fed cattle and corn prices to feeder cattle prices. Monthly price data from December 1995 to December 2016 is used. Based on RRT, surplus rents should pass through the market to the holder of the scarcest resource. In cattle markets, feeder calves are the scarcest, widely traded resource and thus gains and losses at the feedlot theoretically pass-through to feeder cattle prices. The hypothesized pass-through rates suggested by RRT is calculated using monthly production data from the Focus on Feedlots data series. The regression pass-through estimates are tested against the hypothesized RRT pass-through. In many models, the estimated pass-through rate is statistically greater than the RRT hypothesized pass-through rate. Thus, when fed cattle or corn prices change, these changes are more than fully passed to cow-calf producers through the feeder cattle price. Evidence is found of asymmetric pass-through during times of herd expansion versus contraction. Essay 3 provides a quantification of how changes in retail and export beef demand are transmitted to different members of the beef industry. Understanding how information is transmitted from primary consumer demand through the supply chain is key for long-term prosperity of the U.S. cattle industry. However, empirical applications quantifying how demand signals are transmitted through vertically connected industries are limited. Using both naïve and forward looking price expectations, a four equation system of inverse demand and supply equations for live and feeder cattle is estimated. Using retail and export beef demand indices, the impacts of 1% change in retail or export demand on live cattle and feeder cattle prices are quantified.