Chan, Tsz Him. / Thesis (M.Phil.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 2010. / Includes bibliographical references (p. 94-96). / Abstracts in English and Chinese. / Abstract --- p.i / Acknowledgement --- p.iii / Chapter 1 --- Introduction --- p.1 / Chapter 2 --- Monte Carlo method in Finance --- p.6 / Chapter 2.1 --- Principle of MC and pricing theory --- p.6 / Chapter 2.2 --- An illustrative example --- p.9 / Chapter 3 --- Discretization method --- p.15 / Chapter 3.1 --- The Euler scheme and Milstein scheme --- p.16 / Chapter 3.2 --- Convergence of Mean Square Error --- p.19 / Chapter 4 --- Quasi Monte Carlo method --- p.22 / Chapter 4.1 --- Basic idea of QMC --- p.23 / Chapter 4.2 --- Application of QMC in Finance --- p.29 / Chapter 4.3 --- Another illustrative example --- p.34 / Chapter 5 --- Our Methodology --- p.42 / Chapter 5.1 --- Measure decomposition --- p.43 / Chapter 5.2 --- QMC in SDE simulation --- p.51 / Chapter 5.3 --- Towards a workable algorithm --- p.58 / Chapter 6 --- Numerical Result --- p.69 / Chapter 6.1 --- Case I Generalized Wiener Process --- p.69 / Chapter 6.2 --- Case II Geometric Brownian Motion --- p.76 / Chapter 6.3 --- Case III Ornstein-Uhlenbeck Process --- p.83 / Chapter 7 --- Conclusion --- p.91 / Bibliography --- p.96

Wu, Tao. / Thesis (M.Phil.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 2010. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 56-61). / Abstracts in English and Chinese. / Chapter 1 --- Background and Organization --- p.7 / Chapter 2 --- Parallel Talbot method for solving partial integro- differential equations --- p.9 / Chapter 2.1 --- Introduction --- p.9 / Chapter 2.2 --- Initial-boundary value problem --- p.11 / Chapter 2.3 --- Spatial discretization and semidiscrete problem --- p.12 / Chapter 2.4 --- Parallel Talbot method --- p.15 / Chapter 2.4.1 --- Φ-functions and Talbot quadrature --- p.15 / Chapter 2.4.2 --- Control on nonnormality and feasibility con- straints --- p.18 / Chapter 2.4.3 --- Optimal parameterization of parabolic Talbot contour --- p.22 / Chapter 2.5 --- Numerical experiments --- p.26 / Chapter 2.6 --- Conclusion --- p.32 / Chapter 3 --- Memory-reduction Monte Carlo method for pricing American options --- p.37 / Chapter 3.1 --- Introduction --- p.37 / Chapter 3.2 --- Exponential Levy processes and the full-storage method --- p.39 / Chapter 3.3 --- Random number generators --- p.41 / Chapter 3.4 --- The memory-reduction method --- p.43 / Chapter 3.5 --- Numerical examples --- p.45 / Chapter 3.5.1 --- Black-Scholes model --- p.46 / Chapter 3.5.2 --- Merton's jump-diffusion model --- p.48 / Chapter 3.5.3 --- Variance gamma model --- p.50 / Chapter 3.5.4 --- Remarks on the efficiency of the memory-reduction method --- p.52 / Chapter 3.6 --- Conclusion --- p.53 / Chapter 3.7 --- Appendix --- p.54

This thesis considers the effect of stochastic skew in the interest rate cap and currency option markets, where we observe obvious stochastic variation of skew of implied volatility curve over time. To develop option pricing models consistent with empirical evidence, we adopt the Wishart process to model both stochastic volatility and stochastic skew of the asset return and to price options in both markets. As an affine model, the model is analytically tractable. Some distributional properties of the models are studied. The key feature of our model is that, when compared with the multi-factor Heston model, which generates stochastic skew through its volatility processes, the Wishart process contains not only volatility processes, but also volatility-unrelated processes which provide extra freedom to model the variation of skew that is not captured by the volatility processes. Numerical experiments demonstrate that the Wishart model has greater flexibility to model stochastic skew than the multi-factor Heston model in both the interest rate cap market and currency option market. Finally, results of calibration to market data and model estimation demonstrate the superiority of the Wishart model to the multi-factor Heston model in the interest rate cap market. / Ng, Hon Yip. / Advisers: Kwai-Sun Leung; Duan Li. / Source: Dissertation Abstracts International, Volume: 73-09(E), Section: A. / Thesis (Ph.D.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 2011. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 89-98). / Electronic reproduction. Hong Kong : Chinese University of Hong Kong, [2012] System requirements: Adobe Acrobat Reader. Available via World Wide Web. / Electronic reproduction. Ann Arbor, MI : ProQuest dissertations and theses, [200-] System requirements: Adobe Acrobat Reader. Available via World Wide Web. / Abstract also in Chinese.

This Paper empirically investigates the behavior of Africa’s stock price volatility over time in ten African equity markets. It also attempts to establish the existence of a relationship between volatility and expected returns in the chosen equity markets. The effect of volatility on the stock prices is also investigated, together with establishing variations in the stock return volatility risk premia. Lastly, an investigation of whether volatility is transmitted from international markets to African markets is also undertaken. The sample period starts from November 1998 until December 2016. The preliminary empirical results show a mixed finding in the mean-variance tradeoff theory. Based on the GARCH-type models, the empirical results show that volatility of stock returns show the characteristics of volatility clustering, leptokurtic distribution and leverage effects over time for all the Africa equity markets. A weak relationship between volatility and expected returns is also found in all the African equity markets studied. The results also showed that as volatility increases, the returns correspondingly decrease by a factor of the coefficient for most of the equity markets. These results negate the theory of a positive risk premium on stock indices. It was also observed that stock return volatility risk premia have variations over time. The study also established that there was volatility transmission from the international markets into Africa equity markets. / MT2017

This study is an empirical verification of the theories of the economics of information at the cattle producer's market in the U.S. Western Region. Weekly data on producer's price quotations were obtained from CATTLEFAX for 1973 through 1981. The three major objectives of the research are: first, to determine whether price dispersion exists in the cattle producer's market in the Western Region: second, if significant price dispersion are shown to exist, to determine the nature of the regional price distribution; and third, if price dispersion do exist, to determine the implications of the dispersion relative to competitive structure, efficient informational flows, and relative informational content of said distribution. Price dispersion exists in the cattle producer's market of the Western Region. It is the buyers who "establish" prices and sellers act as price takers. Where heavy trading occurs, information of prices is more efficiently transmitted resulting in a more symmetrical distribution. The composition of the market is relatively stable. however, imperfect information results in splitting the market into high price and low price favoring the better informed. Utah producers are rational in their pricing decisions. Price dispersion can be attributed to the lag in obtaining price information and asymmetry in efficiency of information gathering.

The purpose of this thesis is to study the effect of lower milk support prices trigger ed by chronic surplus production problems and to offer alter native management strategies for dairymen caught in the cash flow squeeze precipitated by resulting cuts in the producer price of milk. Historical dairy policy is reviewed and recommendations are offered for consideration in developing dairy policy over the next decade. FLIPSIM V, a powerful, firm-level computerized simulation model is employed to predict the probable outcome of employing alternative management strategies designed to improve profitability for individual dairymen. The study focuses on a typical farm devised from survey data to be representative of Utah's dairy industry. A five-year planning horizon is simulated.

The Federal Reserve has increased nominal interest rates since early 2016. It is expected that commodity prices will drop in response to this monetary intervention. The overshooting hypothesis explains that commodity prices are more flexible than manufacturing prices and therefore are more volatile. In this situation, it is expected that agricultural commodities decline significantly (i.e., overshoot) and gradually return to their long-run equilibrium. This adjustment behavior has implications for income stability and financial viability of farmers. This research contributes to the overshooting literature by including the energy sector in the overshooting model. The interlinks between energy and other sectors in the economy as well as the vast resource allocation to biofuel production in recent decades demand more attention to the impact of energy on the dynamic adjustment path of relative prices’ reaction to monetary shocks. We assume energy prices have independent adjustment path and include the links between the energy and agricultural sectors through biofuel production in our model. Our theoretical model shows that by including energy prices in the model, agricultural prices and the exchange rate overshoot less than the prediction of prior studies. This happens because we expect that flexible energy prices share the burden of the shock with other flexible prices in the model. We also describe how an increasing share of biofuels in the total fuel consumption will reduce the flexibility of energy prices. In our empirical analysis, we use monthly data from January 1975 to December 2017 for three producer price indexes (i.e., agricultural commodities, energy, and industrial goods), exchange rates, and money supply to test the overshooting hypothesis. We found the series to be nonstationary and cointegrated of the order one, I(1). Thus, we estimated a vector error correction model to identify the short run adjustment parameters while maintaining the long-run relationships between the variables. We identify and control for three possible structural breaks in the data that coincide with two economic crises and the biofuel production era. We also estimated the empirical model using a sub-sample from January 1975 to March 1999 and compared the results with the findings in previous studies. Our empirical results confirm the theoretical expectation that agricultural commodities adjust faster than manufacturing prices. The analysis of the impulse response functions shows that after a money supply shock, agricultural prices were the most responsive, followed by energy prices and exchange rates. In both full sample and the sub-sample, the volatility of prices and exchange rates happen during the first 5 to 10 months. The sluggish adjustment of manufacturing prices was evident from the corresponding impulse response functions. The empirical evidence rejects the long-run money neutrality, consistent with the findings of previous empirical studies. Compared to previous models, our empirical model shows that including energy prices will reduce the extent to which agricultural commodities overshoot. Therefore we expect the disturbances to the farm income variability, in response to monetary policy, to be less than what prior model would have estimated. In this regard, energy prices are a stabilizing factor in this model. We find that increased share of biofuel from total fuel consumption would positively affect the overshooting of agricultural prices. So, higher biofuel mandates could reduce the flexibility of the energy prices and therefore have an adverse effect on the farm price stability.

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the effect of the "limits of arbitrage" on securities mispricing. Specifically, I investigate the effect of the availability of substitutes and financial constraints on stock mispricing. In addition, this study investigates the difference in the limits of arbitrage, in the sense that it will lead to lower mispricing for these stocks, relative to non-S&P 500 stocks. I also examine if the lower mispricing can be attributed to their lower limits of arbitrage. Modern finance theory and efficient market hypothesis suggest that security prices, at equilibrium, should reflect their fundamental value. If the market price deviates from the intrinsic value, then a risk-free profit opportunity has emerged and arbitrageurs will eliminate mispricing and equilibrium is restored. This arbitrage process is characterized by large number of arbitrageurs which have infinite access to capital. However, a better description of reality is that there are few numbers of arbitrageurs to the extent that they are highly specialized; and they have limited access to capital. Under these condition arbitrage is no more a risk-free activity and can be limited by several factors such as arbitrage risk and transaction costs. Other factors that are discussed in the literature are availability of substitutes and financial constraints. The former arises as a result of the specialization of arbitrageurs in the market in which they operate, while the latter arises as a result of the separation between arbitrageurs and capital. In this dissertation, I develop a measure of the availability of substitutes that is based on the propensity scores obtained from propensity score matching technique. In addition, I use the absolute value of skewness of returns as a proxy of financial constraints. Previous studies used the limits of arbitrage framework to explain pricing puzzles such as the closed-end fund discounts. However, closed-end fund discounts are highly affected by uncertainty of managerial ability and agency problems. This study overcomes this problem by studying the effect of limits of arbitrage on publicly traded securities. The results show that there is a significant relationship between proxies of limits of arbitrage and firm specific mispricing. More importantly, empirical results indicate that stocks that have no close substitutes have higher mispricing. In addition, stocks that have high skewness show higher mispricing. Subsequent studies show that the S&P 500 stocks have different levels of liquidity, analysts’ coverage and volatility. These characteristics affect the ability of arbitrageurs to eliminate mispricing. Preliminary univariate tests show that S&P 500 stocks have, on average, lower mispricing and limits of arbitrage relative to non-S&P 500 stocks. In addition, the multivariate test shows that S&P 500 members have, on average, lower mispricing relative to non-S&P 500 stocks.

Thesis (MPH.) -- University of Limpopo, 2015 / Background Drugs expiration in public hospital pharmacies is a concern to health professionals as the Department of Health spends a lot of money to buy drugs. The number of drugs which expire in public hospital pharmacies can give an indication of how the drugs are used, and consequently reflect on the disease prevalence for which the drugs are indicated for. Drugs cannot be used beyond expiry date. The purpose of this study was to determine the cause or causes, extent and costs of expired drugs in public hospital pharmacies of Sekhukhune District in Limpopo Province of South Africa. Methods Sekhukhune District has seven public hospital pharmacies. Data collection involved interviews conducted by the researcher from thirty-five participants with each hospital having five participants. All interviews were recorded by the use of a laptop voice recorder. Participants in each hospital involved a pharmacy manager, an additional pharmacist who had twelve months or more working experience within the facility under study, a clinical manager, a nurse who attends the hospital Drug and Therapeutics Committee and a medical practitioner who had twelve or more working experience within the facility under study. Results and conclusion In this study it was identified that, overstocking; prescribing tendencies by medical practitioners; delivery of short-dated drugs from the supplier; poor stock rotation and unreliably minimum and maximum order levels were cited as some of the reasons for stock expiration. The study found drugs expiration value to be above the set limit of 0.05% of the expenditure in a financial year. An expired stock value of R86 815 was found based on the data collected for 2010/2011 financial year.

Thesis (M. Sc. (Statistics)) --University of Limpopo, 2014 / analysis of price indices of electrical appliances in South Africa is performed using monthly data from Statistics South Africa for the period January 1998 to December 2010, with 2005 as a base year. Time series analysis (exponential smoothing and ARIMA) and neural networks are employed in developing forecasting models. The results for single, double and triple exponential smoothing are compared and triple exponential smoothing is found to be the best model amongst the three to forecast the electrical price indices in South Africa. ARCH models were also employed for the variable that failed to pass the requirements from ARIMA. Comparing neural networks, ARIMA and triple exponential smoothing results, neural networks is found to be the best model for forecasting price indices of electrical appliances. Regression analysis was then applied to the lighting equipment variable to check for a monthly effect after its plot depicted some seasonality pattern. Only the month of February did not have an impact or an effect on time since it was found not to be significantly different from zero. Multivariate time series is also applied in checking the correlation between the variables. Keywords: Time series analysis, ARIMA, ARCH, multiple linear regression, exponential smoothing, neural networks, electrical price indices.