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  • About
  • The Global ETD Search service is a free service for researchers to find electronic theses and dissertations. This service is provided by the Networked Digital Library of Theses and Dissertations.
    Our metadata is collected from universities around the world. If you manage a university/consortium/country archive and want to be added, details can be found on the NDLTD website.
1171

Natural Gas Storage Valuation

Li, Yun 16 November 2007 (has links)
In this thesis, one methodology for natural gas storage valuation is developed and two methodologies are improved. Then all of the three methodologies are applied to a storage contract. The first methodology is called "intrinsic rolling with spot and forward", which takes both the spot and forward prices into account in the valuation. This method is based on the trading strategy by which a trader locks the spot and forward positions by solving an optimization problem based on the market information on the first day. In the following days, the trader can obtain added value by adjusting the positions based on new market information. The storage value is the sum of the first day's value and the added values in the following days. The problem can be expressed by a Bellman equation and solved recursively. A crucial issue in the implementation is how to compute the expected value in the next period conditioned on the information in current period. One way to compute the expected value is Monte Carlo simulation with ordinary least square regression. However, if all of the state variables, spot, and forward prices are incorporated in the regression there are too many terms, and the regression becomes uncontrollable. To solve this issue, three risk factors are chosen by performing principle component analysis. Dimension of the regression is greatly reduced by only incorporating the three risk factors. Both the second methodology and the third methodology only consider the spot price in the valuation. The second methodology uses Monte Carlo simulation with ordinary least square regression, which is based on the work of Boogert and Jong (2006). The third methodology uses stochastic dual dynamic programming, which is based on the work of Bringedal (2003). However, both methodologies are improved to incorporate bid and ask prices. Price models are crucial for the valuation. Forward prices of each month are assumed to follow geometric Brownian motions. Future spot price is also assumed to follow a geometric Brownian motion but for a specific month its expectation is set to the corresponding forward price on the valuation date. Since the simulation of spot and forward prices is separated from the storage optimization, alternative spot and forward models can be used when necessary. The results show that the value of the storage contract estimated by the first methodology is close to the market value and the value estimated by the Financial Engineering Associates (FEA) provided function. A much higher value is obtained when only spot price is considered, since the high volatility of the spot curve makes frequent position change profitable. However in the reality traders adjust their positions less frequently.
1172

The Effect of MRT Luzhou Line on Its Surrounding Housing Prices

Ho, Chi-Ming 02 July 2012 (has links)
This study employs the data from real estate transactions provided by the Department of Land Administration. This study uses the Hedonic Price method and the Difference-in-Difference method to analyze the impact of indoor and outdoor properties on housing prices. In our study, the properties of floor space, stories, age, proximity to MRT stations, and proximity to elementary schools are important factors affecting the housing prices. The results estimated by Difference-in-Difference method show that the coefficient on homes within 500 meters distance of the MRT stations and the coefficient after MRT operating are both significantly positive on housing prices. Although the coefficient on the interaction term is positive, it is not statistically significant.
1173

HOT Lane Policies and Their Implications

Goel, Rahul 2010 May 1900 (has links)
High-Occupancy toll (HOT) lanes allow lower-occupant vehicles (LOVs) to use a HOV lane for a fee, while maintaining free travel to qualifying HOVs. HOT lanes are gaining interest throughout the country as a strategy for meeting multiple performance objectives in congested urban freeway corridors. Currently there are ten fully operational HOT lanes around the country in seven different states and this research examined the nine of them (excluding I-35 W). Even with only a handful of operational HOT lane projects, there is great diversity in terms of HOT lane design and operations. With HOT lane implementation there are many issues, including: toll rates, vehicle occupancy requirement, number of access points, and safety. This research examined (i) the different factors which lead to the development of the HOT lanes in their respective corridors (ii) the objectives of the HOT lanes (iii) changes made in the corridor due to HOT lane implementation (iv) the different impacts of the HOT lanes and (v) the extent to which the objectives of the HOT lanes were achieved. Using three pairs of HOT lanes with similar design and operational characteristics, comparisons were made to examine the impacts of the similar HOT lanes in two different corridors. With the strict registration requirement for HOV3+ on the I-95 Express Lanes there were indications that some carpoolers broke up in to lower occupancy vehicles. Tolled access for HOV2s on I-95 as well as the SR 91 Express Lanes resulted in lower usage of the Express Lanes by the HOV2s (fewer than 30 percent of the total corridor HOV2s) as compared to a conventional HOV lane (60 percent) where HOV2 access is free. The effect of availability of transit on the HOT lanes can also be seen from SR 91 as compared to I-95. On SR 91, the Express bus does not use the Express Lanes and there was almost no change in its ridership after the Express Lanes were implemented. However, on I-95, the Express bus uses the Express Lanes and travel time of buses decreased by 17 minutes due to Express Lanes implementation. The Express bus ridership also increased by 30 percent. On the SR167 and I-25 HOT lanes, the exogenous factors like gas prices and economic recession seemed to influence the usage of the HOT lanes. In both the HOT Lanes, carpool usage was positively correlated to the gasoline prices. On I-25, the increasing unemployment rate coincided with the decreasing toll paying travelers. On SR 167 there were also indications of mode shifts among the transit, carpool and toll paying SOVs due to fluctuating gas prices. With declining gas prices, the transit and carpool usage went down while toll paying users increased. An inverse relationship between the convenience of access points and the safety perceived by the HOT lane users was found. For example, I-15 Express Lanes in Salt Lake City reduced the access points from unrestricted with the previous HOV lanes to limited with the Express Lanes. As a result, more predictable merging led to an increase in the perceived safety of the Express lanes as well as the speed of the corridor. On the other hand, some carpoolers mentioned not using the Express Lanes anymore because of access inconvenience. The access inconvenience was also mentioned by previous carpoolers in HOV lanes on I-95 as one of the reasons for not using the Express Lanes. These findings underscore the importance of outreach programs during the planning process of the HOT lanes to minimize the confusion among the previous users of the HOV lanes and spreading awareness among them regarding the increased safety benefits.
1174

A Study Of Housing Prices In Ankara

Karagol, Tuba 01 May 2007 (has links) (PDF)
Housing price studies is the first step of housing market analysis. Prices are determined at the intersection point of supply and demand curves, which determine equilibrium point that represents equilibrium price and quantity level. At a point in time demand factors are more important in determining the prices because short-run supply curve is almost vertical. However, in the long run supply of housing, and its certain attributes, will increase if price premium arises in the previous periods. In most of the studies, house prices are analyzed by using hedonic price index technique, which enables us to have information about the demand side of housing sector. In the hedonic price framework, heterogeneous goods are considered as aggregations of characteristics, and implicit marginal prices for these characteristics are calculated. When &lsquo / Hedonic Price Analysis&rsquo / is applied to the housing sector, it shows us the price of each housing attribute and gives information about the preferences and willingness to pay of the people for each attribute. Therefore, at the end of such an analysis it is possible to see which attributes are valued most by house buyers in the city. The aim of this thesis is to reveal the implicit prices of housing attributes in the housing market of Ankara, for the year 2006, with the purpose of gaining more information about the demand side of the housing sector. For this purpose, hedonic pricing method is used with the data that are extracted from appraisal reports which include information about main attributes and estimated price of each dwelling unit.
1175

The Impact Of Modern Retailing On The Prices Of Fast Moving Consumer Goods: Evidence From Turkey

Pamuk, Haki 01 September 2008 (has links) (PDF)
In Turkey, the retailing sector is in a modernization process with the increase in the market share of supermarkets since 1990s. This process has important implications on general economy with changing consumption characteristics. This thesis analyzes the impact of increasing market share of supermarkets on the prices of fast moving consumer goods in traditional retailers. By means of a household panel, a panel data econometric approach is used for assessing the impacts of different supermarket formats between 2002 and 2006 in 12 sectors. The results indicates that increasing market share supermarkets decreases the price levels observed in traditional retailers in some of the sectors and these impacts vary according to supermarket formats and sectors.
1176

Import Price Pass-through Into Inflation Indicators In Turkey

Yunculer, Caglar 01 September 2009 (has links) (PDF)
This thesis analyzes the pass-through of external factors into consumer and producer prices in Turkey, with a special emphasis on import price pass-through. To this end, pricing along a distribution chain framework is utilized and it is estimated by Vector Auto Regression (VAR) in a sample period of April 2002 to March 2009. Results show that the pass-through of external shocks into producer prices is higher than it is for consumer prices. Compared with the results of previous studies, findings point out that the degree of pass-through has declined recently in Turkey. In addition, it is found that external factors had significant contribution to annual consumer inflation between 2006 and 2008. Nevertheless, even the contributions of external shocks are excluded, year-end inflation targets would not have been attained.
1177

Wheat Price Dynamics In Turkey: A Nonlinear Analysis

Tonguc, Ozlem 01 September 2010 (has links) (PDF)
Wheat is an extremely important agricultural commodity, due to its crucial role in everyday nutrition, food security, and in terms of incomes of a large body of farmers worldwide. This study examines the dynamics of wheat prices in Turkey in a framework that allows for regime switching. Due to their simplicity, threshold autoregressive (TAR) models are used to capture the effects of factors such as transaction costs and other institutional arrangements that generate discontinuous adjustment to equilibrium price level. The results are compared with standard linear model estimations. Results indicate that there is strong evidence for asymmetric adjustment of wheat prices in Turkey to the equilibrium price, hence models allowing for regime switching are more preferable over the linear ones. However, the diagnostics of the TAR model reveal that specification of a TAR model allowing for more than two regimes, or a smooth transition autoregressive (STAR) model that allows for smooth transition through a continuum of regimes might be more appropriate.
1178

Exchange Rate Pass-through Into Domestic Price Indicators: A Sectoral Analysis Of Turkish Economy

Ozen, Emine Ozgu 01 December 2011 (has links) (PDF)
The question of exchange rate pass-through into domestic inflation is a widely analyzed issue due to its importance as regards to monetary policy, exchange rate policy and in general macroeconomic policy for open economies. Although most of the literature is focused on the exchange rate pass-through at the aggregate level, there are fewer studies that are done at the sectoral level for the Turkish economy. In this study by using a distribution chain of pricing model developed by McCarthy (2000), pass-through of exchange rates and import prices into domestic prices for selected sectors are examined for the Turkish economy. The emprical model estimates a Vector Auto Regression (VAR) to see pass-through dynamics through times and across the selected sectors. This study covers March 2002-December 2010 period / the period of floating exchange rates. Findings indicate that pass-through has fallen recently in Turkey. Moreover, results of the analysis show that external factors explain an important proportion of the variance of domestic prices for the sectors which have a larger import share.
1179

Statistical analysis of residential housing prices in an up and down real estate market: a general framework and study of Cobb County, GA

Corsini, Kenneth Richard 17 November 2009 (has links)
The recent economic recession has had a significant impact on residential real estate both nationally and regionally. Our research is focused specifically on Cobb County, Georgia and the impact that the declining economy has had on home buying and property values in this area. Specifically, this research aims to identify changes in the residential market in terms of significant characteristics of housing and their corresponding effect on home values.
1180

Effect of oil prices on returns to alternative energy investments

Schmitz, Anthony 02 December 2009 (has links)
This paper presents the role of alternative energy technologies in displacing fossil fuels as the world's primary energy source. To that end, a CAPM-GARCH multi-factor market model is used to investigate the relationship between returns on oil and alternative energy stocks. Results show that an increase in oil prices and the broad market have a statistically significant and positive impact on alternative energy stock returns. Furthermore, the alternative energy sector is substantially more risky than the broad market but has the potential for higher returns. This highlights the infancy and inherently risky nature of the alternative energy sector today, but demonstrates the potential for substantial future investment gain as alternative energy technologies become more mature and widely available. Interestingly, estimation of the alternative energy index model indicated the presence of abnormal returns which was not the case for the solar index model, implying that the abnormal returns were generated from a different sectoral component of the alternative energy index.

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