The aim of the thesis is twofold: to analyze the effects of the expectations on the Bothnia Line on the housing market and expectations on railway use. To fulfill these aims, three questions are considered: 1. To what extent is property prices influenced by the expected effects of the Bothnia Line? 2. Are there differences in expectations on regional development and future journeys between residents in different locations and with different individual characteristics? 3. How are trips to work affected by the expectations on the Bothnia Line and the performance of the train service according to residents in different locations? Property prices are investigated quantitatively with data delivered from Lantmäteriet. The data contains every sold property from 1994 to 2001 in the municipalities of Umeå, Nordmaling, and Örnsköldsvik. Expectations on regional development and future traveling on the Bothnia Line were investigated with two questionnaires conducted in the autumn of 2002. The empirical results from the study of property prices are clear. There are no signs of influence from the Bothnia Line on the property prices close to the railway stations or in the proximity of the railway. The empirical results from the questionnaires reveal a mixed picture of the expectations. In the municipalities located furthest away from the railway, the expectations are low. On the contrary, a large proportion (>75 %) of the residents in municipalities along the railway line believe it can be useful for the population in general when searching for new employment opportunities. This is especially true for males living in Örnsköldsvik. A significantly smaller proportion (≈25 %) believes they will use the railway themselves. One explanation to the geographic variations is that they are a result from an ongoing diffusion process. Residents in Örnsköldsvik were the first ones to have a visual image of the railway since the construction started there. As the construction continues, the expectations might increase in other locations as well. Another possibility is that people only react on word of mouth from someone that actually made a trip before they consider changing the mode of transport. If that is the case, the expectations will increase only after the opening of the railway line. With the exception of residents in Nordmaling, expectations on future journeys with the Bothnia Line are low. The low expectations on journeys on the Bothnia Line might be explained by the lack of attraction between the places along the line. They are satisfied with their present situation and cannot find any rationale to consider other alternatives. It is a different story if they are forced to consider other alternatives. The result from a stated preference study shows that if they are offered employment at another place, the majority is willing to commute.

One of the key steps of the liberalization of the Turkish electricity market has been the estab- lishment of PMUM (Turkish day ahead electricity market). The aim of this study is to explore the dynamics of electricity prices observed in this market and their relation with temperature observed in Turkey. The electricity price process is studied as a univariate process and the same process is studied along with temperature together as a two-dimensional process. We give a fairly complete model of temperature. We observe that the electricity prices in Turkey exhibit many of the features that similar prices exhibit in other world markets. In particular, Turkish day ahead prices are seasonal / every year the price seems to follow a path similar to the one years preceding it. To simplify our analysis we focus our study to a 35 day pe- riod where every year the prices show a relatively simple behavior. We study the effects of the fluctuations in temperature in this period on the fluctutations in the day ahead electricity price.

One of the central issues in international macroeconomics is relative price movements and their sources. One such price is the price of crude oil. An increase in oil price leads to a transfer of income from importing to exporting countries through a shift in terms of trade. The general mechanism by which oil prices affect the economic performance is well under-stood. However, the dynamics of these effects – especially the adjustment to the terms of trade – are uncertain. The purpose of this paper is to analyse the impact of an increase in oil price on the terms of trade during the time period 1970 to 2004. The relationship between oil price and world business cycle as well as the relationship between oil price, GWP and Saudi Arabia’s export is also examined in this paper. The regression results show that an increase in oil price has a negative impact on terms of trade for the net importing country. Whether an increase in oil price has a positive or no effect at all on terms of trade for the net exporting country cannot be told form the regres-sion results.

Buying a house is for most people the biggest investment they will ever make. A lot of factors are taken in to consideration when looking for the perfect house; location, size, what state it is in and so forth. But since most people’s budgets are limited, the price is probably the most important aspect in the decision making process of buying a house. It is therefore highly interesting to note that since 1981, house prices in Sweden have increased with almost 400 percent. This thesis examines the relationship between small house prices and macroeconomic factors in the Stockholm region during the period 1991 to 2007. By using macro economic theories complemented by data for all Stockholm’s municipalities in a OLS regression, the thesis will explain how the variables affects the small house prices in a boom, recession and over time. The results and analysis reveals that as house prices rises, people tend to increase their spending on interest costs and vice versa if the prices falls. Furthermore, results show that in a boom, an existence of speculation is contributing to the rise while convergence is an important factor in a recession. The most important conclusion from this thesis is the fact that the influence of macroeconomic variables on house prices differs significantly, depending on if the economy is in a recession or a boom. Finally, the influence on the economy that the house- and real estate market possesses cannot be underestimated with its important effect on the credit market, inflation and asset market. / Husköp är för de flesta människor deras livs största investering och det är därför många faktorer som först måste vägas in varav den viktigaste förmodligen är priset. Huspriserna i Sverige har sedan 1981 nästan fyrdubblats, en utveckling som är mycket kraftigare än inflationen samma tid. Den här kandidatuppsatsen avser att undersöka Stockholmregionens småhuspriser åren 1981-2007 och dess relation till makroekonomiska faktorer. Genom att använda en OLS regression med insamlad data för Stockholms alla kommuner och makroekonomiska teorier, visar vi hur utvalda makroekonomiska variabler påverkar småhuspriserna generellt, i hög- samt lågkonjunktur. Resultat och analys visar att om småhuspriserna går upp är tenderar Stockholms befolkning att lägga en större del av deras inkomst på räntekostnader och tvärtom när priserna går ner. En psykologisk aspekt har en viktig del i dessa upp och nedgångar, i en uppgång startar en spekulationsperiod då människor vill vara en del ägandet i den uppåtgående husmarknad medans i en nergång skapas en sorts konvergens och en rad faktorer påverkar varandra i en spiralliknande nedåt trend. Denna trend kan förklaras i DiPasquales och Wheatons assets market model där det positiva förhållandet mellan marknader som hyresmarknaden, kreditmarknaden, byggmarknaden och tillgångsmarknaden står i fokus. Den viktigaste slutsatsen i uppsatsen är att makroekonomiska faktorer påverkar småhuspriserna helt olika beroende på om ekonomin är i en hög eller lågkonjunktur. Slutligen bör nämnas hur viktigt hus- och fastighetsmarknaden är för en ekonomi genom dess påverkan på kreditmarknaden och inflationen.

<p>Comprised of three related chapters, this dissertation evaluates the effects of the North Carolina School Accountability System on agents in different markets using, in most part, school data provided by the North Carolina Education Research Data Center. North Carolina introduced its primary school improvement program, the ABCs of NC, in 1997. The model includes growth and performance composites and recognized/rewarded schools for performing well. In response to the No Child Left Behind Act of 2001, the state introduced a second accountability program, AYP, to run in conjunction with the ABC system. The AYP program focuses on closing the achievement gap and its primary goal is for all public school children to perform at grade level in reading and mathematics by the end of the 2013-14 school year. Failure to show improvement toward this goal leads to sanctions and increased accountability pressures at the school level. This dissertation seeks to determine the impact of the school accountability program on two groups of individuals - teachers and homebuyers.</p><p>Chapter 1 examines the influence of school accountability on teacher mobility. I estimate the effect of accountability incentives - teacher bonuses under the ABCs, and accountability pressures - threats and sanctions under AYP, on teacher mobility between schools. I investigate how the state's two accountability systems affect the distribution of teachers to schools, and in particular the willingness of quality teachers to teach in schools where student achievement is low. I provide empirical evidence on the differential effects the two accountability systems have on the ability of low-performing schools to employ quality teachers. It may be that bonus given under the state's ABC system can help to offset high turnover rates in schools that face increased accountability pressure under the AYP system. Or conversely, if schools that face increased accountability pressure are not able to perform well enough to receive bonuses it may lead to even higher turnover rates. These higher turnover rates will undoubtedly place personal burdens on students, administrators, and parents; ultimately undermining the primary goals of performance gains under school accountability.</p><p>In Chapter 2, I examine the affect the labeling of schools under the ABC system has on the housing market. Since the passing of the No Child Left Behind Act of 2001, each state is required to publicly report school quality measures and student test performance. Many states, including North Carolina, were already reporting their own quality measure and since 2002 have included an additional quality measure to meet the newer federal requirements. There has been extensive research documenting the relationship between housing prices and test scores at local public schools. Given the research, one may presume additional information about school quality to also influence the housing market.</p><p>This chapter examines whether state reported school quality measures influence household sorting decisions, using a regression discontinuity approach and comprehensive data on real estate transactions over the period 2003-2007. The results suggest that even when taking into account student performance on test scores and other variables the market's response to the release of information related to school quality provided by the state's recognition system is significant.</p><p>Chapter 3 provides a narrative on the extent to which public perceptions of the quality of local schools correspond to actual service quality. The chapter also discusses ways in which the relationship between actual and perceived school quality may vary across different groups of people, specifically parents of school-age children, homeowners, and minority or low-income households. The results in chapter 2 suggest that public accountability systems may have a causal effect on citizen perceptions of service quality.</p><p> However, due to data limitations, very few economics studies have analyzed the relationship between school accountability and public perceptions. With the use of a perceptions survey of North Carolina residents, I propose a study investigating public perceptions of the quality of public schools and the degree to which they freely available information about the level of school quality and student performance at the schools.</p> / Dissertation

Denna studie granskar aktieanalytikers arbetsmetodik, deras påverkan på aktiemarknaden samt deras upplevda yrkesproblematik. För att åskådliggöra detta har vi genomfört tio djupintervjuer med aktörer från dagens finansbransch. Fem analytiker från de större analyshusen samt fem experter från diverse relaterade finansområden har intervjuats. Målsättningen är att granska analytiker utifrån dessa tio respondenters olika perspektiv och därmed tydliggöra analytikers roll i det finansiella maskineriet. Detta uppnås genom att fokusera på tre delområden: Hur analytiker faktiskt praktiserar sitt yrke och vad för vetenskaplig förankring de har (1), vad de har för påverkan på aktiemarknaden (2) samt vilka svårigheter de upplever att yrket möter i dagsläget och en nära framtid (3). Studien påvisar att variablerna bakom aktievärderingarna är viktigare än värderingsverktyget i sig. Analytikers verktyg för analys är därför bristande vilket har sitt ursprung i företagsekonomins ofullständiga finansiella teorier. De aktörerna med störst påverkan på marknaden är de professionella och institutionella placerarna. Det framgår även att analytiker inte har någon större påverkan på marknaden, vilket var studiens utgångpunkt. Småsparare bör vara medvetna om dessa fakta och inte blint följa riktkurser eller rekommendationer. Slutligen kan studien påvisa att analytiker inte befinner sig i en helt oberoende ställning gentemot arbetsgivare, kunder och bolagen de analyserar. Att konstant värna om dessa relationer leder till direkta och indirekta agentkostnader som slutligen drabbar kunderna och analyshuset. / This paper examines analysts' methodology, their impact on the stock market and their perceived professional problems. To illustrate this, we have conducted ten interviews with profiles from today's financial industry. Five analysts from larger investment banks and five experts from various related financial areas were interviewed. The goal is to examine analysts from these ten respondents' perspectives and thereby clarify the analyst’s role in the financial machinery. This is achieved by focusing on three areas: How analysts actually practice their profession and what scientific basis they have (1), what their impact on the stock market is (2) and the difficulties they believe that the profession is facing today and in the near future (3). The paper shows that the variables behind set value of the stock are more important than the tools of how to set the value itself. The analysts’ tools for analyzing are therefore lacking which can be derived from the fact that the financial theories within the community of business administration often are incomplete. The profiles with the greatest impact on the market are the professional and institutional investors. Furthermore, the paper shows that analysts do not have a major influence on the market, which was the study's starting point. Small investors should be aware of these facts and not blindly follow target prices or recommendations. Finally, the study shows how analysts do not have an unbiased relationship towards their employers, clients or the companies they analyze. Constantly trying to preserve these relations leads to direct and indirect agency costs that ultimately affect the clients and investment banks.

This thesis has applied the theory of real options to study forestry investment decision-making under stochastic timber prices. Suitable models have been developed for the stochastic timber prices, after addressing major issues in characterisation of the price process. First, the assumption of stochastic timber price process was based on detailed unit root tests, incorporating structural breaks in time-series analysis. The series was found to be stationary around shifting mean, justifying the assumption of mean reversion model. Due to shift in the mean, long-run mean to which the prices tended to revert could not be assumed constant. Accordingly, it was varied in discreet steps as per the breaks identified in the tests. The timber price series failed the normality test implying fat tails in the data. To account for these fat tails, ‘jumps’ were incorporated in the mean reversion model. The results showed that the option values for the jump model were higher than the mean reversion model and threshold levels for investment implied different optimal paths. Ignoring jumps could provide sub-optimal results leading to erroneous decisions. Second, the long-run mean to which prices reverted was assumed to shift continuously in a random manner. This was modeled through the incorporation of stochastic level and slope in the trend of the prices. Since the stochastic level and slope were not observable in reality, a Kalman-filter approach was used for the estimation of model parameters. The price forecasts from the model were used to estimate option values for the harvest investment decisions. Third, investment in a carbon sequestration project from managed forests was evaluated using real options, under timber price stochasticity. The option values and threshold levels for investment were estimated, under baseline and mitigation scenarios. Results indicated that carbon sequestration from managed forests might not be a viable investment alternative due to existing bottlenecks. Overall, the research stressed upon the need for market information and adaptive management, with a pro-active approach, for efficient investment decisions in forestry.

The International market of crude oil and natural gas is well established and very competitive. Knowledge about costs is important in helping to understand the current position of producers within the industry. In the eyes of the producers, the lower the costs the more profitable they will become given the price of crude. This thesis focuses on an economic analysis of crude oil exploration in Saskatchewan and Alberta. In a competitive market, the producers require estimates of finding costs in both regions. The public policies that are designed to encourage crude exploration also rely heavily on reliable estimates of these costs. The results show that Saskatchewans per-unit finding cost is significantly lower than Albertas in spite of the geological differences between the two provinces. The finding costs are estimated by using a methodology (Uhler 1979) that has been widely accepted within economic literature of non-renewable resources. The results support the hypothesis that finding costs in both regions are increasing and the argument that these costs will converge in the long-run, except for the last six years of the analysis.

University of Macau / Faculty of Science and Technology / Department of Mathematics

University of Macau / Institute of Chinese Medical Sciences