The paper evaluates whether the Lusaka Stock Exchange (LuSE) is weak form efficient, and whether stock price movements conform to the random walk hypothesis of non-predictability in future price movements based on past price information. The methods employed are the parametric and non-parametric individual as well as multiple variance ratio tests. In addition, the study incorporates the Runs Test. The study further examines seasonality in Zambian stock returns of the day of the week effect as well as monthly related effects. The period of analysis is from 3rd January, 2006 to 17th February, 2014. The study incorporates daily data as well as monthly data of the LuSE All share Index in order to investigate the random walk hypothesis as well as seasonality effects of the Zambian market. The period of analysis is broken down into two sub periods after accounting for multiple structural breaks in the data. The results of the study are mixed, the results of the Runs test finds the Zambian stock market price series to be mutually independent and conform to a random sequence, and are as such unpredictable. While the variance ratio tests reject the random walk hypothesis for the Zambian market, and as such, support the view of the use of technical trading strategies in order to outperform buy-and-hold strategies. The study finds no evidence of any seasonality in the data, either for daily data as well as monthly data. As such there is evidence that investors may acquire returns greater than those of the market, however, transaction costs and commissions would have to be minimal in order to exploit any patterns in the stock price series of the Lusaka stock exchange.

A dissertation submitted in fulfillment of the requirements for the degree in Masters in Management Finance and Investment , University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, 2017 / This thesis examines the performance of value and growth stocks during the ten year period June 2006 to 2016 within five emerging markets countries namely South Africa, Nigeria, Brazil, India and Argentina. Value stocks are those stocks that trade at low prices in comparison to its fundaments value of the company and growth stocks are those stocks that trade at high prices compared to the company’s fundaments. The portfolios of value and growth stocks are created in the five abovementioned countries. The performance of value and growth stocks are studied by constructing portfolios on the basis of price-to-earnings, price-to-book, price-to-cash flow and price-earnings-growth. The data to calculate these price-multiples are derived from the audited statement of comprehensive income, statement of financial position and statement of cash flow of the companies. Trade data on listed stock, listed indices, cash dividends and risk-free rates are derived from mainly from Bloomberg.com and Morningstar.com. To classify stocks to be included in value or growth portfolios, a 30 percent cut-off is used. The portfolio returns and risk, price-multiples are studied as well to research whether one price-multiple provide higher return than others. Total return and risk-adjusted measures are studied by means of average daily returns to scrutinize which class of stocks, value or growth, provided the highest return. A regression analysis is performed to study if the Capital Asset Pricing model and a two-factor model can elaborate on the excess returns yield by value and growth portfolios. The findings are that value stock portfolio provide a higher total return than growth stocks portfolio. The value stocks as compared to growth stocks, also provide a fraction of higher return per unit of risk, as measured by Jensen’s Alpha and Treynor. The study also shows that value portfolios classified on price-to-book yield higher returns than portfolios constructed on other price multipliers. The regression analyses show that the CAPM two-factor model is able to explain the excess returns on value and growth portfolios. The beta coefficients of value stocks are higher than growth stocks, which is consistent with the general theory that higher betas found in stocks should, by definition, produce higher returns, this also suggest that the reason behind the of outperformance by value stocks over growth stocks is a compensation of risk. While value and growth stocks are studied over a period of 10 years on five emerging markets there is some limitations and implications for future research exist. One major limitation concern is the sample size of 5 emerging markets out of 152 emerging and developing countries as listed by the International Monetary Fund. Therefore reaching statistical conclusion makes it difficult to generalize towards other countries. / MT 2018

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This thesis explores the cross-price elasticity of rail and bus usage with gasoline prices. This is done to see how the short-run cross price elasticity has changed and to see if the same long-run relationship can be seen in the long run as previous pooled models. It is done in order to investigate whether policies such as higher gasoline taxes may make consumers move from car usage towards public transportation. Historically the cross-price elasticity has been around 0.2 with a higher elasticity for rail than for buses. The relationship also seemed to be greater in the long run than short run. Investigating this long run cross price elasticity for modes of public transportation separately would give greater insight into how consumers behave when gasoline prices shift. An ARDL model was therefore used to investigate the long run coefficients of gasoline prices with rail usage and bus usage separately as well as the short run coefficients. No cointegration could be found in this model for the two different modes. The results of the short-run cross-price elasticity seemed to be greater for buses as a direct effect, while it was greater at first lag for rail usage. The cross-price elasticity was lower for the period than previous studies, indicating that the cross-price elasticity may have decreased. The reasons for this cannot be concluded, but theory may explain these differences by the availability in substitutes for the periods, or lower levels of gasoline prices in recent years. This thesis therefore suggests further studies that investigate how usage of rail affects the usage of buses in metropolitan areas, and how the attributes of a modes of public transportation may change the usage of another form of public transportation.

M.S.

M. S.

During the last few decades, economists have become interested in the wine industry and several of them have focused on the determinants of price. One characteristic that has been identified as an important determinant is expert wine ratings. Much of the previous research on this topic has focused on relating expert grades to the retail price of wine. Using proprietary data, this paper will test whether these grades influence retail prices as well as retailer profits and wholesale pricing. By analyzing an individual wholesale firm in South Florida and their distribution network, this paper determines the effect expert ratings have on these dependent variables. Empirical evidence confirms that expert ratings have a positive effect on wholesale and retail wine prices and that they exhibit a parallel influence on retailer profits. This thesis aims to contribute new information to aid both the end consumers purchasing decisions as well as busi-ness pricing strategies.

This study contributes to the discussion of managing tourism to a protected area in a developing country (Galapagos, Ecuador). The first part of the analysis provides quantitative data about preferences of tourists and potential impacts on park revenues from price discrimination. It uses the data from a choice experiment survey conducted in the summer of 2009 in which these four attributes of a tour of the Galapagos were described: tour length, depth of naturalist experience, level of protection of Galapagos from invasive species, and price of the tour. On average the Galapagos tourist would be willing to pay slightly more than 2.5 times for a trip with a high-level of environmental protection than for a trip that is equivalent on all other characteristics but has a lower level of environmental protection. The mean marginal willingness to pay (MWTP) for a trip with an in-depth naturalist experience is 1.8 times more than that for a trip with a less detailed naturalist experience but equivalent on other characteristics. The relatively inelastic demand for travel to the islands would allow managers to adjust access fees to shift the distribution of length of trips while not affecting the revenues. The second part of the analysis evaluates the influence on travel to the islands by depicting Galapagos as a standard market commodity as well as depicting it as an environmental commodity. This analysis compares the results obtained from two different choice experiment surveys given to tourists finishing their trip to Galapagos. One survey design portrays the archipelago as a standard holiday island destination while the other design highlights the uniqueness and vulnerability of the islands’ biodiversity and the challenges that tourism poses to the islands’ conservation. Results suggest that additional information modified an individual's decision-making process. In the first design case (which excludes environmental information), the influence of attributes such as length and depth of natural experience is attenuated. The MWTPs estimated for these attributes are smaller in absolute terms although differences on the MWTP are not statistically significant.

Financial supervision department has loosened restrictions on insurance company’s holdings on capital market, aiming to give full play to the insurance funds which typically have the strengths of large scale, long investment horizon and stable supply. Nevertheless, some insurance companies carry out unfriendly behaviors through capital superiority, which may cause volatility of stock prices. Based on this, the paper mainly studies the insurance funds and volatility spillover of individual stocks as well as the entire capital market. This paper uses a framework of econometric methods based on vector autoregressive mode, and selects the 2016—2020 quarterly data from the SSE A-share disclosure. The results reveal that on one hand, price fluctuation has a unidirectional spillover effect on insurance companies’ changes in ownership. On the other hand, insurance companies’ changes in ownership also have a unidirectional spillover effect on volatility of the SSE index. / Business Administration/Finance

In the face of high population growth and declining natural resource base, tackling rural poverty necessitates an increase in overall factor productivity or a rise in the market rate of return of assets possessed by the poor. Towards achieving these objectives, the role of spatial integration of markets and the efficiency with which these markets operate are considerably important, as these factors shape the structure of incentives and the level of opportunities open to the rural poor. As a result, factors that hinder the spatial integration of markets and their efficient operation will have significant impact on rural poverty. In Ethiopia markets are often segmented mainly due to high transport cost associated with poor road infrastructure. The existing poor quality and low road density are expected to contribute to rural poverty through limiting the size of the market, increasing market risk (price volatility), widening the spatial prices gaps, reducing the market return to land and labour, inflating the profitability of new technologies and reducing the incentive to produce for market. This research endeavours to empirically substantiate if there is a robust link between farm income and the quality of road infrastructure farm households have access to as well as the pathways through which the effects of road on rural income are felt. The empirical result consistently showed that improving rural road access will have significant impact on rural income in general and the income of the poor in particular. The mechanisms by which road boosts rural income and reduce poverty are also found to work through narrowing down spatial price gaps, promoting technology adoption, boosting resource allocation efficiency and raising the market return to land and labour. The result also showed that the rural poor benefits from road induced income growth.