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Determinants of producers’ choice of wine grape cultivars in the South African wine industryMusango, Josephine Kaviti 12 1900 (has links)
Thesis (MAgricAdmin (Agricultural Economics))--University of Stellenbosch, 2005. / The wine industry is one of the oldest commercial activities in South Africa. The South African
wine grape industry annually produces more than a million tonnes of grapes, making the country
the ninth largest producer in the world. The total area under wine grape production is divided into
eight regions for administrative purposes. These boundaries are a legacy of the era of controlled
marketing and there is continued meaningfulness of having various classifications such as ‘wine of
origin’ scheme.
The purpose of this study is to identify the factors that determine the producers’ choice of wine
grape cultivars in the wine regions in South Africa. Time series data for the period 1990-2003 were
used to estimate the parameters of linear regression models. Two equations for each wine grape
cultivar in each region were postulated and estimated using Ordinary Least Squares as applied with
Eviews. Further, a stepwise regression as applied in STATISTICA was used to eliminate the
parameters that were not statistically significant at five percent significant level.
In identifying the factors that determine the choice of wine grape cultivars in the regions, the
results showed that each wine grape cultivar in each region has its own factors influencing the
producers’ choice of that specific wine grape cultivar. Same wine grape cultivars in different
regions similarly have its own factors determining the producers’ choice. The implication of this is
that there are differences in terms of the requirements and types of crops and wine grape cultivars
grown in each region. However, the most important result that emerged with regular frequency is
that, the factors determining the producers’ choice of a specific wine grape cultivar for each region
is price of other wine grape cultivars and competitive products in that wine region. The price of
specific wine grape cultivars only had an influence on few wine grape cultivars. The implication is
that the producers in South Africa appears to consider the prices of other wine grape cultivars and
competitive products before making a choice of whether to plant or uproot a specific wine grape
cultivar more than the price of the specific wine grape cultivar. This supports the theory that farm
prices play a key role in allocating resources and in rewarding efficient producers.
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South African security market imperfectionsJooste, Dirk 03 1900 (has links)
Thesis (MComm (Statistics and Actuarial Science))--University of Stellenbosch, 2006. / In recent times many theories have surfaced posing challenging threats to the Efficient Market Hypothesis. We are entering an exciting era of financial economics fueled by the urge to have a better understanding of the intricate workings of financial markets. Many studies are emerging that investigate the relationship between stock market predictability and efficiency.
This paper studies the existence of calendar-based patterns in equity returns, price momentum and earnings momentum in the South African securities market. These phenomena are commonly referred to in the literature as security market imperfections, financial market puzzles and market anomalies. We provide evidence that suggests that they do exist in the South African context, which is consistent with findings in various international markets. A vast number of papers on the subject exist in the international arena. However, very few empirical studies on the South African market can be found in the public domain. We aim to contribute to the literature by investigating the South African case.
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Shareholder distribution choices for industrial companies listed on the JSE : share buybacks versus dividendsBester, P. G. 12 1900 (has links)
Thesis (MBA)--Stellenbosch University, 2008. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Repurchasing of shares by South African companies were legalised on 1 July 1999.
This introduced an alternative to dividends for distributing cash to shareholders.
Although dividends and share repurchases realise the same value in a perfect efficient
market, the inefficiencies of the South African stock market require managers to
carefully evaluate factors like taxation and stock price valuation when selecting
appropriate distribution methods.
This research report aims to update shareholder distribution trends for industrial JSE
listed companies over the past 10 years in order to determine the impact of share
repurchases on dividend payouts. Furthermore, this research report examines the
factors that may have had an impact on shareholder distribution choices in order to
provide some guidelines for choosing appropriate distribution methods.
An initial analysis of SENS share repurchase announcements revealed that 121 JSE
listed companies repurchased about R50 billion worth of shares up to 30 June 2007.
The bulk of the shares, 65% by value, were repurchased on the open market, while
35% was repurchased through specific fixed price offers. However, a comparison of
accurate share repurchase data obtained from a sample of company annual reports,
indicate that repurchase announcements understate actual repurchases by more than
20% on average. Further analysis of distribution trends were therefore based on actual
repurchase data published in annual reports rather than SENS announcements.
After the legalisation of share repurchases in South Africa, a decline in dividend paying
companies was expected similar to that experienced by the United States since the
80's. However, a detailed analysis of 132 industrial listed companies indicated that the
proportion of dividend paying companies increased from a level of 50% to almost 75%
since the introduction of share repurchases. On the other hand, the proportion of
companies repurchasing shares initially rose to over 25%, but then declined to below
20% by 2007.
Ordinary dividends are the dominant shareholder distribution choice with 64% of
companies opting for this method. Open market share repurchases have been well
adopted with 17% of companies using this method, while only 5% and 4% of
companies using special dividends or specific repurchases respectively. Dividends
paid out of share premium (capital distributions) have also emerged as a favourite over
recent years with almost 20% of companies using this shareholder distribution method.
Current tax legislation do not provide all the advantages usually enjoyed by share
repurchases internationally and have largely prevented dividends from being
substituted by share repurchases. The decline in share repurchases up to 2007 also
indicates that share repurchases become less effective as share prices increase to
overvalued levels. While tax implications and stock price valuation remain the
dominant determinants of shareholder distribution choice, this study shows that
shareholder diversity, dividend preferences, size of distribution, and BEE requirements
also have significant influences on the choice of distribution method in the South
African context. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Die terugkoop van aandele deur Suid-Afrikaanse maatskappye is wettig sedert 1 Julie
1999. Dit het 'n alternatief tot dividende in werking gestel om kontant aan
aandeelhouers uit te keer. Alhoewel dividende en aandele-terugkoop dieselfde waarde
in 'n perfekte doeltreffende mark realiseer, vereis die tekortkominge van die Suid-Afrikaanse
aandelemark dat bestuurders faktore soos belasting en aandeelpryswaardasie
versigtig moet oorweeg tydens die keuse van geskikte uitkeringsmetodes.
Die doelwit van hierdie navorsingsverslag is om die tendense van uitkerings aan
aandeelhouers te hersien vir industriele JSE-genoteerde maatskappye oor die laaste
10 jaar om sodoende die effek van aandele-terugkope op dividenduitbetalings te
bepaal. Verder ondersoek hierdie navorsingsverslag ook die faktore wat moonlik 'n
invloed op aandeelhouers-uitkeringskeuses gehad het, om sodoende riglyne vir die
keuse van geskikte uitkeringsmetodes saam te stel.
'n Voorlopige analise van SENS-terugkoopaankondigings toon dat 121 JSE-genoteerde
maatskappye ongeveer R50 miljard se aandele teruggekoop het tot en met 30 Junie
2007. Die grootste gedeelte van hierdie aandele, 65% se waarde, is op die ope mark
teruggekoop terwyl 35% deur spesifieke vasteprys terugkope verkry is. 'n Vergelyking
met terugkoopsyfers wat uit 'n steekproef van maatskappyjaarverslae geneem is, dui
egter daarop dat aankondigings die ware terugkope met gemiddeld 20% onderskat.
Verdere ontleding van aandeelhouers-uitkeringstendense word derhalwe gebaseer op
syfers wat in jaarverslae gepubliseer is, eerder as SENS-aankondigings.
Na die wettiging van aandele-terugkoop in Suid-Afrika, is verwag dat dividenduitbetalings
sou daal soortgelyk aan dit wat in die Verenigde State ondervind is sedert
die 80's. Die ondersoek van 132 genoteerde industriele maatskappye toon egter dat
die persentasie van maatskappye wat dividende betaal van 50% tot bykans 75%
toegeneem het sedert aandele-terugkoop 'n beskikbare opsie is. In teenstelling
hiermee, het die persentasie maatskappye wat aandele terugkoop aanvanklik tot 25%
gestyg, maar sedertdien afgeneem tot onder 20% teen 2007.
Gewone dividende is die gewildste aandeelhouers-uitkeringsmetode met 64% van
maatskappye wat van hierdie metode gebruik maak. Aandele-terugkope op die ope
mark is goed verteenwoordig met 17% van maatskappye wat van hierdie metode
gebruik gemaak het, terwyl slegs 5% en 4% van maatskappye onderskeidelik van
spesiale dividende en spesifieke aandele-terugkope gebruik gemaak het. Dividende uit
aandelepremie (kapitaaluitkerings) het ook na vore getree as 'n gunsteling keuse in die
laaste paar jaar met bykans 20% van maatskappye wat hierdie uitkeringsmetode
gebruik het.
Huidige belastingswetgewing bied nie al die belastingvoordele aan aandele-terugkope
wat normaalweg deur internasionale maatskappye benut word nie en het grotendeels
verhoed dat dividende deur aandele-terugkoop vervang is. Die afname in aandeleterugkope
tot en met 2007 is ook 'n aanduiding dat dit minder effektief raak soos wat
aandeelpryse oor gewaardeerde vlakke styg. Terwyl belasting-oorwegings en
aandeelpryswaardasies steeds die dominante drywers van aandeelhouersuitkeringskeuses
bly, bevind hierdie studie dat faktore soos aandeelhouers se
diversiteit, dividendvoorkeure, grootte van uitkerings, en vereistes van swart
ekonomiese bemagtiging ook 'n noemenswaardige invloed op uitkeringskeuses binne
die Suid-Afrikaanse konteks het.
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The effect of generic medicine competition on the market share growth and pricing of originator brand medicine in the South African private pharmaceutical marketBredenkamp, Jhandre 12 1900 (has links)
Thesis (MBA)--Stellenbosch University, 2011. / This study analyses the effects of generic medicine competition on the market share growth and pricing of originator brand medicine in the South African private pharmaceutical market. The study is based on five years (2005 to 2011) of IMS Health market share data for 39 originator brand drugs that have been exposed to competition from generic substitutes from 2001. The results show that, for all the drug molecules included in the study pooled together, the price of an originator brand medicine relative to the weighted average price of its generics has a significant negative impact on the change of its market share. Results for the molecules pooled according to anatomical classes, as well as each molecule separately, show that in four out of the nine classes represented in the study and nine out of the 39 molecules the relative price of the originator brand medicine had a significant negative impact on its change in market share. The manufacturers and marketers of generic medicines would be well advised to offer their medicines at significantly discounted prices compared to the originator brands, as the results suggest that the market penetration of the generic product may depend heavily on the price the generics are offered at. Investigations into the prices of the originator brands in relation with the number of generic equivalents in the market show that the number of generics available in a specific market has a significant positive impact on the relative price of originators, thereby making originators relatively more expensive compared with their generic competitors, while at the same time the results show that the absolute price of the originator brand medicines declines as the number of generic equivalents in the market increases. This indicates that, from a policy perspective, reducing the barriers to entry for generic medicine once originator patents expire may have a significant role to play in reducing the cost of pharmaceutical drugs in the South African market.
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The relationship between futures prices and expected future spot prices : some South African evidenceKeyser, Johannes de Kock 12 1900 (has links)
Thesis (MBA)--Stellenbosch University, 2002. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: A unique data set consisting of economists' expectations on key economic indicators
was examined within the context of the controversial normal backwardation theory of
Keynes. The economists' expectations were regarded as the expected future spot
price and the relationship between them and the corresponding futures contracts was
analysed. The respective economic indicators were: i) the yield from aparastatal
Bond, ii) the yield from Government Bonds, iii) the rate of the 90 day Banker's
Acceptance (BA) Deposit Rate and iv) the Rand/Dollar (R/$) Exchange Rate for the
past seven years, i.e. 1995 to 2001. The accuracy of the economists' predictions
was tested both on a visual basis and the relationship between the expected values
and the futures prices was plotted in a graphical format. A nonparametric statistical
procedure was used to determine whether the economists' expectations were of any
value. To put it differently, the question being posed is: do these economists, as a
group, possess some superior forecasting skills?
Two different conclusions were reached from the analysis:
First conclusion: by accepting the normal backwardation theory, it implies that the
contango theory also holds. Therefore, when analysing the data set visually -
depending on which theory it supports - the futures price must trade consistently
below or above the expected future spot price. For this particular analysis the yield of
the bond, and not its price, was the important factor. In most cases the plotted
relationships between the expected values and the futures prices were found to
support the contango theory and, to a lesser extent, the normal backwardation
theory. Hence, speculators were, in order to make profits, predominately sellers of
futures contracts.
Second conclusion: the strongest conclusion, however, follows from the statistical
tests conducted on the expected values. It was found that economists do possess
some superior forecasting skills and if they had used their predictions and had taken
the corresponding market positions, they would have been consistent winners in the
futures market. Their reward would be mainly for their ability to forecast eventual
spot prices and, to a lesser extent, for their risk bearing. It was impossible to link the two conclusions to confirm the normal backwardation theory, for the particular South
African data set. The evidence is thus consistent with the hypothesis that the futures
price is an unbiased estimate of the expected future spot price. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: 'n Unieke datastel, bestaande uit ekonome se vooruitsigte van kern ekonomiese
aanwysers, is ondersoek binne die konteks van die omstrede normale
terugwaardasie-teorie (d.i. "normal backwardation theory") van Keynes. Die
ekonome se vooruitsigte is aanvaar as die verwagte toekomstige kontantprys en die
verhouding hiertussen en die ooreenstemmende termynpryse is ontleed. Die
onderskeie ekonomiese aanwysers was: i) die opbrengs op 'n Semi-Staatseffek,
ii) die opbrengs op Staatseffekte, iii) die koers van die negentig-dae-Bankaksepte
(BA) Depositokoers en iv) die Rand/Dollar (R/$) Wisselkoers oor die afgelope sewe
jaar, d.w.s. 1995 tot 2001. Die akkuraatheid van die ekonome se vooruitskattings is
op 'n visuele basis vergelyk, en die verhouding tussen die verwagte prys en die
termynpryse is in grafiese formaat gekarteer. 'n Nie-parametriese statistiese
prosedure is gebruik om vas te stel of hierdie ekonome se vooruitsigte van enige
waarde was. Anders gestel, die vraag is: beskik hierdie ekonome as 'n groep oor
sekere superieure vooruitskattingsvaardighede?
Die volgende twee afsonderlike gevolgtrekkings is geformuleer:
Eerste gevolgtrekking: deur die normale terugwaardasie-teorie te aanvaar, impliseer
dit dat die contango-teorie (d.i, "contango theory") ook geldig is. Dus, wanneer die
datastel visueel getoets word - afhangende van watter teorie dit ondersteun - moet
die termynprys konsekwent bo of onder die verwagte toekomstige kontantprys
verhandel. Vir hierdie bepaalde analise was die opbrengs van die staatseffek die
belangrike faktor en nié die prys daarvan nie. In die meeste gevalle het die
gekarteerde verhouding tussen die verwagte prys en die termynprys getoon dat dit
die contango-teorie ondersteun het en, in 'n mindere mate, die normale
terugwaardasie-teorie. Derhalwe was spekulante, ten einde wins te maak,
oorwegend die verkopers van termynkontrakte.
Tweede gevolgtrekking: die belangrikste gevolgtrekking volg egter uit die statistiese
toetse wat uitgevoer is op die verwagte pryse. Daar is bevind dat ekonome wel oor
superieure vooruitskattingsvaardighede beskik en dat, indien hulle hul
vooruitskattings gebruik en die ooreenstemmende markposisies ingeneem het, hulle konsekwent wenners in die termynmark sou gewees het. Hulle vergoedings sou
hoofsaaklik gewees het vir hulle vermoë om uiteindelike kontantpryse te voorspel en,
in 'n mindere mate, vir hulle risiko-blootstelling. Dit was onmoontlik om hierdie twee
vergelykings met mekaar te verbind om sodoende die normale terugwaardasie-teorie
te onderskryf vir die betrokke Suid-Afrikaanse datastel. Die bewyslewering is dus
konsekwent met die hipotese dat die termynprys 'n onsydige skatting van die
verwagte toekomstige kontantprys is.
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An economic analysis of the relationships between land values, agricultural commodity prices and land reform issues in South Africa.Ziqubu, Allison. January 2009 (has links)
This thesis is an implicit farmland value study which explores the possible effects of agricultural commodity prices, interest rate and land reform issues on farmland values. The study examines the impacts of these fundamental factors (interest rates and returns to farmland as determined by crop prices) on sugar cane farmland values, maize farmland values, on deciduous fruit (apples and pears) farmland values, and on aggregate South African farmland values. Expectations are that land reform influences the demand for farmland. Since farmland prices are demand driven, changes in the demand for farmland (as influenced by land reform issues) may result in changes in farmland prices. The study thus seeks to empirically examine, to a larger extent, the long-run influence of endogenous factors on farmland prices. Causes of cyclical behaviour in farmland prices are also examined. The study draws on cross-sectional and time series studies of previous research on farmland values. The maximum likelihood Johansen (1991) procedure of cointegration is used to estimate the relationship between fundamental factors and farmland values. The logit model is used to estimate the influence of land reform on the demand for farmland, hence farmland prices. Unit root and the Johansen cointegration test results proved that long-run relationships exist between farmland values and returns to farmland; the use of cointegration methods was thus recommended. Long-run changes in farmland prices are caused by fundamental factors. Short-run variations in farmland prices are caused by exogenous factors that affect net farm income and this lead to boom-bust cycles in farmland values. / Thesis (M.Comm.) - University of KwaZulu-Natal, Pietermaritzburg, 2009.
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Determinants of house prices in Hout BayVan der Walt, Stephan 03 1900 (has links)
Thesis (MA (Geography and Environmental Studies))--University of Stellenbosch, 2010. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: The research problem addressed in this study is how to ascertain the primary determinants of
house prices in Hout Bay. This overarching aim encompasses three interwoven aspects. The
research attempts first to determine which factors generally affect property prices in Hout
Bay; second, to assess the extent to which individual factors affect house prices; and third, to
discover the role variables collectively play in determining house prices in Hout Bay. Four
objectives emerge from this subdivision of the aim, namely identify potential house priceinfluencing
factors in Hout Bay; quantify the selected locational variables; statistically
analyse the variables to distinguish the significant and insignificant ones; and use regression
analysis to deduce the collective and individual influences of the significant factors on house
prices.
Structured interviews were conducted with representatives of 12 estate agencies in Hout Bay
to uncover factors affecting the local property market. Through insights gleaned from the
literature, manipulation of municipal valuation and cadastral data and the structured
interviews, 39 structural and site-related variables, 18 distance variables and 11 socioeconomic
variables were constructed.
Several preliminary and descriptive analyses performed on the variables gave a general
impression of the distribution of data and assisted in identifying statistically significant
variables for determining house prices. These analyses included measures of central tendency
(mean, median and mode); measures of dispersion (minimum and maximum values, range,
standard deviation, skewness and kurtosis); the compilation of histograms for each variable;
analysis of variance (ANOVA) on nominal data variables; and the creation of 2D scatterplots
for ordinal data variables. Spearman rank order correlation was performed on the nominal and
ordinal data variables. Statistically weak variables and those exhibiting signs of
multicollinearity were eliminated. A best-subsets regression analysis was executed on the
remaining variables.
The regression model performed adequately, explaining close to 54% of the variation in house
prices in Hout Bay. Among the individual factors, the size of the erf was the strongest
predictor of the house price dependent variable, house size was the second most important
factor, while distance to busy roads and quality of the house shared similar importance.
Regression residuals were also mapped to expose spatial patterns. It is recommended that
comparable research be conducted on a citywide scale, that variables be quantified differently
and that new GIS techniques be incorporated in future studies. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Die navorsingsprobleem wat hierdie studie aanspreek, is hoe om vas te stel wat die primêre
faktore is wat huispryse in Houtbaai bepaal. Hierdie oorkoepelende doelwit vervat drie
onderling verwante aspekte. Eerstens, poog die navorsing om te bepaal watter faktore in die
algemeen huispryse in Houtbaai beïnvloed; tweedens, om te assesseer tot watter mate
individuele faktore huispryse affekteer; en derdens, om te ontdek watter kollektiewe rol
veranderlikes in die bepaling van huispryse in Houtbaai speel. Vanuit hierdie onderverdeling
van die navorsingsdoelwit het vier doelstellings ontstaan, naamlik identifiseer die potensiële
faktore wat huispryse in Houtbaai beïnvloed; kwantifiseer die geselekteerde
liggingsveranderlikes; voer verskeie analises uit op die veranderlikes om die beduidende en
onbeduidende veranderlikes te identifiseer; en benut regressie-analise om die kollektiewe en
individuele invloed van beduidende faktore op huispryse in die studiegebied vas te stel.
Gestruktureerde onderhoude is met verkoopslui van 12 eiendomsagentskappe in Houtbaai
gevoer om die faktore te bepaal wat die plaaslike eiendomsmark beïnvloed. Deur middel van
insigte verkry uit die akademiese literatuur, manipulasie van munisipale waardasie- en
kadastrale data en die gestruktureerde onderhoude is 39 strukturele en liggingsverwante
veranderlikes, 18 afstandsveranderlikes en 11 sosio-ekonomiese veranderlikes geskep.
Verskeie analises wat op die veranderlikes uitgevoer is, het ‘n algemene indruk van die
verspreiding van die data verskaf en het die identifisering van statistiesbeduidende
veranderlikes bevorder. Hierdie analises het maatstawwe vir sentrale neiging (rekenkundige
gemiddelde, mediaan en modus); maatstawwe vir dispersie (minimum en maksimum,
variasiewydte, standaardafwyking, skeefheid en kurtose); die samestelling van histogramme
vir elke veranderlike; die analise van variansie (ANOVA) op veranderlikes met nominale
data; en die skep van 2D-spreidingstippe vir veranderlikes met ordinale data behels. Spearman
se rangorde korrelasie is op beide die nominale en ordinale data uitgevoer.
Statistiesonbeduidende veranderlikes, of dié wat tekens van multikollineariteit met ander
veranderlikes getoon het, is geëlimineer. ‘n Beste deelversameling regressie-analise is
uitgevoer op die oorblywende veranderlikes.
Die regressiemodel het gepaste resultate behaal deurdat dit byna 54% van die variasie in
Houtbaai se huispryse verklaar het. Van die individuele veranderlikes was die grootte van die erf die sterkste voorspeller van die huisprys afhanklike veranderlike, huisgrootte was die
tweede belangrikste faktor, terwyl afstand van besige paaie en die kwaliteit van die huis
soortgelyke invloed gedeel het. Die regressiemodel se residu’s is gekarteer om ruimtelike
patrone vas te stel. Dit word aanbeveel dat soortgelyke navorsing op ‘n stadswye skaal
uitgevoer word, dat die veranderlikes op ander wyses gekwantifiseer word en dat nuwe GIStegnieke
in toekomstige studies aangewend word.
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The impact of earnings announcements on share prices of mining companies listed on the Johannesburg Stock ExchangeMaraisane, Phomolo 12 1900 (has links)
The study examined the impact of earnings announcements on the share price of
selected mining companies using the most recent data from the Johannesburg Stock
Exchange. This study covered a period from 1 January 2011; to 31 December 2015.
Using the classical event study methodology, the speed of reaction of the market to
annual earnings information releases for a sample of 27 companies listed on the
exchange is tested. Over the sample period, the Abnormal Returns (AR), Average
Abnormal Returns (AAR) and Cumulative Average Abnormal Returns (CAAR) were
calculated. The AR, AAR and CAAR show positive results obtained during the
earnings announcement period. The returns yielded from these results are
significantly different from zero. / Financial Accounting / M. Phil. (Accounting Sciences)
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Analysis of volatility spillover effects between the South African, regional and world equity marketsMumba, Mabvuto January 2011 (has links)
The current study examines the extent and magnitude by which global and regional shocks are transmitted to the volatility of returns in the stock markets of South Africa, Egypt, Nigeria, Botswana, Mauritius and Egypt. This is done so as to make inferences on the level of the domestic market‟s integration into the regional and world capital markets. By applying multivariate and univariate GARCH models, using weekly data from June 1995 to May 2010, the main empirical findings are threefold. Firstly, the volatility analytical framework finds statistically significant and time-varying volatility spillover effects from the regional and global markets to the South African market. Global shocks are generally stronger and account for up to 23.9 percent of the volatility of South Africa‟s equity market compared to weaker regional factors which account for less than 1 percent of domestic variance. Only in countries with strong bilateral trade and economic links with South Africa, such as Botswana and Namibia, is it found that regional factors are more dominant than global factors for domestic volatility. Compared to the other African markets, the joint influence of foreign shocks on domestic volatility is highest in South Africa and Egypt, two of Africa‟s largest and most developed markets. The results further demonstrate that for all the African markets the explanatory power of both regional and global factors for domestic volatility is not constant over time and tends to increase during turbulent market periods. Secondly, the analysis of the determinants of South frica‟s second moment linkages with the global market suggests that the volatility of the exchange rate plays a cardinal role in influencing the magnitude by which global shocks affect domestic volatility. The increased global integration in the second moments cannot be attributed to either increased trade integration, convergence in inflation rates or to convergence in interest rates between South Africa and the global markets. Lastly, tests were conducted to examine whether there have been contagion effects from the regional and global markets to South Africa from the 1997 Asian crisis and the 2007/8 global financial crisis. The results show no evidence of contagion during either the East Asian currency crisis or the recent global financial crisis to South Africa, while some African markets, such as Egypt, Mauritius and Botswana, exhibit contagion effects from either crisis. Overall, the empirical findings generally support the view that African markets are segmented both at the regional and global levels as domestic volatility is more influenced by local idiosyncratic shocks (the proportion not attributable to either global and regional factors). However, the volatility of South Africa, and to a lesser extent Egypt, remains relatively more open to global influence. This implies that the potential for gains from international portfolio diversification and the scope for success of policies aimed at the stabilisation of equity markets in these markets exist.
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The impact of oil price volatility on unemployment: a case study of South AfricaSenzangakhona, Phakama January 2014 (has links)
This study analyses and investigates the impact of crude oil price vitality on unemployment in South Africa. This is done by firstly surveying theoretical and empirical literature on the crude oil price-unemployment relationship before relating it to South Africa. Secondly, crude oil and unemployment trends with their causes are overviewed. The study employs a Johansen co-integration technique based on VAR to model unemployment against crude oil prices, real effective exchange rate, real interest rates and real gross domestic product. Using quarterly data for the period 1990-2010, econometric results show that crude oil prices are positively related to unemployment in the long run while the opposite is true in the short run. Parameter estimates and variables are statistically significant; hence there are also policy recommendations which are related to both empirical and theoretical literature. Lastly, impulse response functions show that unemployment returns to equilibrium in the long run when crude oil price changes whereas real interest rates followed by crude oil prices explain most of unemployment changes compared to other variables in the long run.
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