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Incorporating complex systems dynamics in sustainability assessment frameworks : enhanced prediction and management of socio-ecological systems performanceMamouni Limnios, Elena Alexandra January 2008 (has links)
[Truncated abstract] The application of reductionism, breaking down problems to simpler components that can be solved and then aggregating the results, is one of the bases of classical science. However, living organisms, ecosystems, social and economic structures are complex systems, characterised by non-linear interactions between their elements and exhibit emergent properties that are not directly traceable to their components. Sustainability assessment frameworks oversimplify system interactions, achieving limited predictive capacity and causing managerial behavior that may reduce system's ability to adapt to external disturbance. Intrigued by the importance of complexity, we explore the central theme of how complex thinking can influence the understanding and progress towards sustainability. The purpose is to conceptualize the relationship of key terms (such as sustainability, functionality and resilience), and consecutively develop new or adjust existing sustainability frameworks to take into account complex systems interactions. We aim at developing theory and frameworks that can be used to raise awareness of the pitfalls of the growth paradigm and direct towards modest positions when managing complex systems. We seek to define the structural elements that influence system adaptive capacity, allowing identification of early signs of system rigidity or vulnerability and the development of knowledge and techniques that can improve our predictive and managerial ability. The focus has been on a variety of system scales and dynamics. At the collective community level, a number of stakeholder engagement practices and frameworks are currently available. However, there is limited awareness of the complexity challenges among stakeholders, who are commonly directed to a triple bottom line analysis aiming at maximizing a combination of outputs. An attempt is conducted to measure the functionality of the processes underlying a standing stock, in contrast to sustainability measures that only assess the variations of the standing stock itself. We develop the Index of Sustainable Functionality (ISF), a framework for the assessment of complex systems interactions within a large-scale geographic domain and apply it to the State of Western Australia. '...' Finally, we focus on smaller systems scales and develop a methodology for the calculation of Product Ecological Footprint (PEF) including elements from the accounting method of activity based costing. We calculate PEF for three apple production systems and identify significant differences from first stage calculations within the same industry. Cross-industry application will provide a practical way to link individuals' consumption with their ecological impact, reduce misperceptions of products' ecological impacts and develop a market-driven approach to internalizing environmental externalities. At the firm level PEF can be compared with investment costs, resulting in the opportunity to optimize both functions of financial cost and ecological impact in decision making. We have developed methods for incorporating complexity in sustainability assessment frameworks. Further work is required in testing and validating these methodologies at multiple system scales and conditions. Integrating such tools in decision making mechanisms will enhance long-term management of socioecological systems performance.
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Estratégias de investimentos em ações por meio de indicadores quantitativos no mercado brasileiroSilva, Catarino Lacerda e 27 September 2018 (has links)
Submitted by Catarino Lacerda e Silva (catarinolacerda@gmail.com) on 2018-09-18T12:35:32Z
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Dissertação - Catarino Lacerda e Silva - ESTRATÉGIAS DE INVESTIMENTOS EM AÇÕES .pdf: 1217319 bytes, checksum: 472a152e89a76ba49bfdb192b147d76f (MD5) / Rejected by Thais Oliveira (thais.oliveira@fgv.br), reason: Boa tarde, Catarino,
Para que possamos aprovar sua Dissertação, serão necessárias as seguintes alterações:
- A numeração de páginas começa na capa, porém deve aparecer A PARTIR da "Introdução" (pág 12)
- A Ficha catalográfica deve conter o "texto" que existe fora do quadro, exatamente como foi enviado.
Por gentileza, alterar e submeter novamente.
Obrigada. on 2018-09-18T21:10:24Z (GMT) / Submitted by Catarino Lacerda e Silva (catarinolacerda@gmail.com) on 2018-09-19T10:54:33Z
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Dissertação - Catarino Lacerda e Silva - ESTRATÉGIAS DE INVESTIMENTOS EM AÇÕES .pdf: 1219830 bytes, checksum: a2aa93b6d34310ed33ec91af8f364412 (MD5)
Previous issue date: 2018-09-27 / O objetivo deste trabalho é examinar quais indicadores levaram a retornos excedentes no mercado brasileiro durante o período de 31 de março de 2000 a 31 de março de 2018, através das carteiras de ações construídas anualmente com base em um indicador ou dois indicadores quantitativos. Sendo os fatores testados: Retorno sobre Capital Investido (ROIC), Retorno sobre Ativos (ROA), Earnings Yield, Preço sobre Valor Patrimonial (PVPA), Preço sobre Vendas (PSR) e Índice de Força Relativa 120 dias úteis. Nas estratégias de um fator, o primeiro quartil do indicador Earnings Yield mostrou ser o melhor para seleção de ações no período, com maior índice de Sharpe 0,571, com maior média dos retornos anuais 41,03%, maior alfa 27,82%, superando Ibovespa 88,89% do tempo e com maior discrepância entre os retornos dos quartis, tanto que o pior resultado foi 4º quartil do Earnings Yield. Nas estratégias de dois fatores, a combinação dos indicadores de valor PSR e Earnings Yield, P/VPA e Earnings Yield obteve os maiores retornos médios anuais 42,51% e 39,1%, maiores alfas 29,40% e 26,19%, superando o Ibovespa em 88,89% e 83,33% do tempo, respectivamente. Porém foram as estratégias que combinaram um indicador de valor com um indicador de retorno, ROIC e Earnings Yield, ROA e Earnings Yield, que apresentaram os maiores índices de sharpe 0,623 e 0,619, respectivamente. / The objective of this study is examine which indicators led to excess returns in the Brazilian market during the period from March 31 2000 to March 31 2018, through stock portfolios constructed annually based on one indicator or two quantitative indicators. The following factors were test: Return on invested capital (ROIC), Return on Assets (ROA), Earnings Yield, Price-to-book (PVPA), Price Sales Ratio (PSR) and Relative Strength Index 120. In the one-factor strategies, the first quartile of the Earnings Yield indicator was the best for stock selection in the period, with highest Sharpe ratio 0.571, with the highest average annual returns 41.03%, the highest alpha 27.82% outperformed the Ibovespa 88.89% of the time and with greater discrepancy among quartile returns, so much that the worse result was fourth quartile of the Earnings Yield. In the two-factor strategies, the combination of the PSR and Earnings Yield, P/VPA and Earnings Yield value indicators obtained the highest average annual returns of 42.51% and 39.1%, higher alpha 29.40% and 26.19%, outperformed the Ibovespa in 88.89% and 83.33% of the time, respectively. However, it was the strategies that combined a value indicator with a return indicator, ROIC and Earnings Yield, ROA and Earnings Yield, which had the highest Sharpe ratio of 0.623 and 0.619, respectively.
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