This thesis consists of two related parts. In the first part we conduct an empirical examination of the dynamics of Australian interest rates of six different maturities, covering the whole yield curve. This direct study of the long rates is quite novel. We use maximum likelihood estimation on a variety of models and find some results that are in stark contrast to previous studies. We estimate Poisson-jump diffusion (PJD) models and find very strong evidence for the existence of jumps in all daily interest rate series. We find that the PJD model fits short-rate data significantly better than a Bernoulli-jump diffusion model. We also estimate the CKLS model for our data and find that the only model not rejected for all six maturities is the CEV model in stark contrast to previous findings. Also, we find that the elasticity of variance estimate in the CKLS model is much higher for the short-rates than for the longer rates where the estimate is only about 0.25, indicating that different dynamics seem to be at work for different maturities. We also found that adding jumps to the simple diffusion model gives a larger improvement than comes from going from the simple diffusion to the CKLS model. In the second part of the thesis we examine the Flesaker and Hughston (FH) term structure model. We derive the dynamics of the short rate under both the original measure and the risk-neutral measure, and show that some criticisms of the bounds for the short rate may not be significant in actual applications. We also derive the dynamics of bond prices in the FH model and compare them to the HJM model. We also extend the FH model by allowing the martingale to follow a jump-diffusion process, rather than just a diffusion process. We derive the unique change of measure that guarantees the family of bond prices is arbitrage-free. We derive prices for caps and swaptions, and extend the results to include Bermudan swaptions and show how to price options with the jump-diffusion version of the FH model.

MPhilPH / Female tubal sterilisation, often referred to as "tubal ligation" but more often performed these days using laparoscopically-applied metal clips, remains a popular form of contraception in women who have completed their families. A review of the literature on the incidence of failure of tubal sterilisation found many reports of case-series and small clinic-based studies, but only a few larger studies with good epidemiological designs, most recently the US CREST study conducted during the 1980s and early 1990s. The CREST study reported a conditional (life-table) cumulative incidence of failure of 0.55, 0.84, 1.18 and 1.85 per 100 women at 1, 2, 4 and 10 years of follow-up respectively. The study described here estimated a lower bound for the incidence of tubal sterilisation failure in NSW by probabilistically linking routinely-collected hospital admission records for women undergoing sterilisation surgery to hospital admission records for the same women which were indicative of subsequent conception or which represented censoring events such as hysterectomy or death in hospital. Data for the period July 1992 to June 2000 were used. Kaplan-Meier and proportional-hazards survival analyses were performed on the resulting linked data set. The conditional cumulative incidence per 100 women at 1, 2 4 and 8 years of follow-up was estimated to be 0.74 (95% CI 0.68-0.81), 1.05 (0.97-1.13), 1.33 (1.23-1.42) and 1.51 (1.39-1.62) respectively. Forty percent of failures ended in abortion and 14% presented as ectopic pregnancies. Age, private health insurance status and sterilisation in a smaller hospital were all found to be associated with lower rates of failure. Strong evidence of time-limited excess numbers of failures in women undergoing surgery in particular hospitals was also found. The study demonstrates the feasibility of using linked, routinely-collected health data to evaluate relatively rare, long-term outcomes such as sterilisation failure on a population-wide basis.

This study examines the reasons for student withdrawal from the Accounting Certificate Course at Woden TAFE College during the period 1981 to 1984 inclusive. The investigation concerns students enrolled in a demanding, four year course, which leads to a para-professional qualification including (subject to practical experience) registration with the Tax Agents Registration Board. A 100% survey was made of all students, both withdrawn and continuing for the relevant period. Students are adults, mostly between the ages of 20 to 50. Attrition rates in the early stages of the course were found to be very high, and reasons established were related to a variety of causes, including personal reasons. Follow up interviews by telephone were carried out and these showed no new trends from the results of the questionnaires. The main reasons for attrition within the control of the college, seemed to be related to inaccurate student perceptions of, and expectations from the course. The major recommendations and implications arising from the study suggest that counselling be given greater prominence at the time of enrolment. There is also a case for timetabling to include day classes at times and venues most beneficial for students. Another outcome of the investigation suggests that closer liaison be developed between the college, industry and commerce. An important issue which became evident from this research focused on staff development and the need for administrators and teachers to further their educational leadership knowledge and skills to provide the best possible service for students.

Western societies are increasingly becoming aware of the many problems facing boys and men. In Australia these problems include one of the highest youth suicide rates in the world, a high divorce rate, with most divorces being instigated by women, the breakdown of the family, and conflicting messages about what it is to be 'a man'. This study examines and describes how a group of 15-17 year old young men, who attend a private single sex school in Canberra, describe their beliefs and attitudes about becoming adult men. Participants were asked to respond to questions posed in a survey designed specifically for this research. These questions looked at relationships, gender roles, family, fatherhood, work and leisure and whether impending manhood appeared confusing. The context in which participants are situated is one of cultural and social flux; it was the current discourse and debate in Australia about how to be a man, men's issues, and the perception of men in crisis, which gave this study its broad contextual frame. Contrary to the conventional wisdom about boys/young men who attend elite private schools, the participants in this study emerged as egalitarian and flexible in their attitudes with regard to relationships, gender roles, parenting and work. This study therefore in part refutes the stereotypes, which surround students at private boys' schools, including those that purport that these students will hold predominantly hegemonic, traditional views about masculinity and their role as men. This thesis presents the voices of some three hundred young men, adding to an area of research, which is contested and vigorous in its development. By exploring the beliefs and attitudes of a group of Australians who are on the brink of manhood tentative insights have been offered, and, believe, some illumination gained. The dilemmas posed for meaningful adulthood for young men in Australia are very real. We need to listen to what young men have to say.

External Studies has been in operation at Goulburn College of Advanced Education for ten years (1970 - 1980). During this time nearly 1,800 students have been involved in the external programmes. Over half of these students have not completed their studies. This field-study is an attempt to document the actual drop-out rates for the various programmes and to compare the results obtained with statistics available from other tertiary institutions in Australia and overseas. Factors such as student age and sex as related to achievement and time of withdrawal are investigated. The statistics are largely drawn from student files and a questionnaire distributed to a sample of external students. The main thrust of the study is to ascertain the reasons for student withdrawal in an attempt to reduce the attrition rates in the future. Drop-out was found to be the result of a number of contributing factors rather than deriving from any particular reason. The field-study shows that drop-out rates at Goulburn are somewhat similar to those experienced by other tertiary institutions, but that the attrition rate during the first semester of study is excessive.

<p>The association of exchange rates with stock returns and performance in major trading markets is widely accepted. The world’s economy has seen unprecedented growth of interdependent; as such the magnitude of the effect of exchange rates on returns will be even stronger. Since the author perceives the importance of exchange rates on stock returns, the author found it interesting to study the effect of exchange rates on some stocks traded on the Stock exchange.</p><p>There has been a renewed interest to investigate the relationship between returns and exchange rates as such; the author has chosen to investigate the present study to focus in the United Kingdom with data from the London Stock exchange .The author carried out his research on 18 companies traded on the London Stock Exchange in the process, using linear regression analysis. Taking into account the fact that the magnitude of exchange rate movements on stock returns is governed by a series of factors, the author did set up a selection criteria which spread across a series of industries ranging from financial services, manufacturing, aviation, mining, tobacco, fashion and food processing. All selected companies are of the FTSE 100 companies.</p><p>The author produced results that to some degree are consistent with predictions in the theoretical framework. The author find significant exposure of stock returns to changes in exchange rates for some companies in the sample of FTSE 100 firms used in the study. The author equally finds out that particular currencies may be of more risk to certain companies than to others by introducing euro values in to his regression equation. This gives the compelling evidence that these companies rely heavily on external sales and revenue.</p><p>The author, further employed lagged values of exchange rates in to his regression and found significant evidence of the possibility of mispricing for certain stocks and the impact of the previous days trading figures on present stock prices. The author believes that the weak responds in certain cases was as a result of hedging strategies put in place by these companies and risk management strategies which tend to minimise the effect of exchange rates movements.</p>

The thesis contains two chapters which address questions important both for the economic theory and applications. In Chapter I we show that inequalities are an important tool in the theory of production functions. Various notions of internal economies of scale can be equivalently expressed in terms of upper or lower bounds on production functions. In the problem of aggregation of efficiently allocated goods, if one is concerned with two-sided bounds as opposed to exact expressions, the aggregate production function can be derived from some general assumptions about production units subject to aggregation. The approach used does not require smoothness or convexity properties. In Chapter II we introduce a new forecasting techniques essential parts of which include using average high-order polynomial estimators for in-sample fit and low-order polynomial extension for out-of-sample fit. We provide some statements following the Gauss-Markov theorem format. The empirical part shows that algebraic polynomials treated in a proper way can perform very well in one-step-ahead prediction, especially in prediction of the direction of exchange rate movements. / Graduation date: 1995

The association of exchange rates with stock returns and performance in major trading markets is widely accepted. The world’s economy has seen unprecedented growth of interdependent; as such the magnitude of the effect of exchange rates on returns will be even stronger. Since the author perceives the importance of exchange rates on stock returns, the author found it interesting to study the effect of exchange rates on some stocks traded on the Stock exchange. There has been a renewed interest to investigate the relationship between returns and exchange rates as such; the author has chosen to investigate the present study to focus in the United Kingdom with data from the London Stock exchange .The author carried out his research on 18 companies traded on the London Stock Exchange in the process, using linear regression analysis. Taking into account the fact that the magnitude of exchange rate movements on stock returns is governed by a series of factors, the author did set up a selection criteria which spread across a series of industries ranging from financial services, manufacturing, aviation, mining, tobacco, fashion and food processing. All selected companies are of the FTSE 100 companies. The author produced results that to some degree are consistent with predictions in the theoretical framework. The author find significant exposure of stock returns to changes in exchange rates for some companies in the sample of FTSE 100 firms used in the study. The author equally finds out that particular currencies may be of more risk to certain companies than to others by introducing euro values in to his regression equation. This gives the compelling evidence that these companies rely heavily on external sales and revenue. The author, further employed lagged values of exchange rates in to his regression and found significant evidence of the possibility of mispricing for certain stocks and the impact of the previous days trading figures on present stock prices. The author believes that the weak responds in certain cases was as a result of hedging strategies put in place by these companies and risk management strategies which tend to minimise the effect of exchange rates movements.

For more than thirty years, studies about the effect of the exchange rate on exports have been conducted. However, few have considered the combined effect of the exchange rate on imported inputs into the agricultural system and the exports of final agricultural products those inputs produce. This work contributes to the agricultural economics literature by combining those effects. A current concern is for the net effect as the total value and quantity of inputs imported has increased. This research examines the effect of the exchange rate on imported inputs into the corn, wheat, and beef cattle production systems, breaking it down to a producer's budget, examining how the exchange rate affects profitability. Vector Autoregression (VAR) and Bayesian Averaging of Classical Estimates (BACE) models were estimated to evaluate the effects. Daily and weekly price data were used for corn, wheat, feeder steers, ethanol, diesel, ammonia, urea, di-ammonium phosphate, and the exchange rate. A VAR model was estimated to model the relationship between the variables. After having incongruous test results in determining the lag length structure it was decided that a BACE model would be approximated. After estimating the BACE model, the price responses of the commodities to the exchange rates were estimated. The price responses were used in demonstrating the effect of the exchange rate on a producer's profitability. It was determined that, generally, a strengthening exchange rate has a negative impact on prices. It was also found that the exchange rate has a greater impact on prices now than it did 14 years ago, implying that the exchange rate now has a greater affect on profitability. A one percent increase in the value of the dollar led to a decline in profitability ranging from $0.02/bu in wheat to $0.56/cwt in feeder steers. However, agricultural producers should not be overly concerned about a lower valued dollar from the perspective of their agricultural business.

This study creates a model to predict short-term exchange rates as a combination of the relative purchasing power parity model (Grossman and Simpson 2011) and the interest power parity model. I then use the statistical techniques ARMA and GARCH to account for the variance of the terms. Previous works considered the effects of these models individually, but mine consider them in unison. I consider both in-sample and out-of-sample tests. I use data on five major exchange rates (JPY/USD, CAD/USD, CHF/USD, GBP/USD, and AUD/USD) sampled at a monthly frequency from 1989-2013. My model statistically significantly predicts these exchange rates over the January 2012 to January 2013 period.