Thesis (M.S.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Architecture, 1980. / MICROFICHE COPY AVAILABLE IN ARCHIVES AND ROTCH. / Includes bibliographical references. / The electric utilities in the United States have entered a period of slow growth due to a combination of increased capital costs and a staggering rise in the costs for fuel. In addition to this, the rise in peak power demand continues almost at historical levels resulting in lower plant utilization. Current rate schedules do little to improve the utilities' load factors and,in fact, encourage consumption. Time of day rate structures have been suggested as one load management device. This thesis investigates the impact of commercial cooling systems on the utilities supply picture and describes an off-peak cooling system which would enable a building operator to shift chiller operation to off-peak hours. The chillers draw heat from a water/glycol coolant, cooling it to 20°F. The coolant circulates through a series of coiled pipes inside a water filled storage tank. As heat is drawn from the water, ice forms around the pipe heat exchanger. With a cool ant temperature of 20°F the ice cylinder will form out to a diameter of 3.4" in 10 hours. Optimum pipe spacing is 3.5" on center. Polyethylene pipe is preferred to copper pipe for cost and fabrication reasons. The plastic pipes are grouped in discrete modules which allow flexibility in design. Building cooling loads are managed by circulating the remaining 32°F tank water through a heat exchanger coupled to the air handling units cooling coils. The warm water is returned to the tank where the heat is absorbed by the ice. Economic analysis using the present electric schedules indicate a favorable return on investment Time of day rates would make the system look even more desirable. / by Edward M. Quinlan. / M.S.

Thesis (Ph.D.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Sloan School of Management, 1982. / MICROFICHE COPY AVAILABLE IN ARCHIVES AND DEWEY. Dewey second copy is in one volume. / Bibliography: leaves 348-355. / by Roger Eric Bohn. / Ph.D.

This dissertation consists of three essays on exchange rates and international finance with an emphasis on emerging economies. In Chapter 1, I provide empirical evidence that supports the hypothesis that exchange rate based stabilization programs are expansionary during their early phases. I derive a new set of stabilization episodes using extensive country chronologies from Reinhart and Rogoff (2004) and I find that even after controlling for external conditions, the initial expansion associated with the introduction of an exchange rate based program, is caused by both, the program itself and positive external conditions. These expansionary effects are robust to different estimation methods and different criteria for detecting stabilization episodes. In Chapter 2, I study the relationship between foreign interest rates, country spreads, terms of trade and macro fundamentals in emerging markets. I estimate a structural VAR for 15 emerging economies. I find that country spreads explain 12% of output fluctuations, foreign interest rates an additional 7% and the terms of trade about 5%. I also find that country spreads account for a quarter of real exchange rate variability while the terms of trade account for just 1%. To further validate these results, I develop a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model for a small open economy. The model incorporates several open economy frictions: i) bond-holding adjustment costs, ii) investment adjustment costs, iii) a working capital constraint, and iv) a country spread component that depends upon macro fundamentals, which is taken from the estimated VAR. The model is able to replicate fairly good the propagation effects of foreign rates and country spread shocks but overestimates the importance of the terms of trades. In Chapter 3, I investigate the relation between volatility in the foreign exchange market and excess returns on carry trade portfolios for the G10 currencies. I develop and compare three different investment strategies that aim at avoiding losses when volatility jumps, a common feature of the carry trade. I find that two trading strategies, one based on implied volatility from FX options and the other on exponentially-weighted moving averages, provide better risk-adjusted returns than the standard carry trade. A third strategy, based on Markov-switching exchange rate forecasts, provides excess returns for some currencies but fails for portfolios of currencies. I also show that currency investing provides superior Sharpe ratios than a benchmark bond portfolio and a benchmark stock portfolio, even after including the recent global financial crisis.

Lai, Ka Lun. / Thesis (M.Phil.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 2007. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 75-77). / Abstracts in English and Chinese. / Chapter Chapter 1 --- Introduction --- p.1 / Chapter Chapter 2 --- Multivariate Threshold Time Series Model --- p.14 / Chapter 2.1 --- The Multivariate TAR Models --- p.14 / Chapter 2.2 --- Testing for Nonlinearity --- p.15 / Chapter 2.3 --- Model Selection and Estimation --- p.22 / Chapter 2.4 --- Bivariate TAR Models --- p.26 / Chapter 2.5 --- Applications --- p.27 / Chapter Chapter 3 --- Comparative Study of Interest Rates --- p.34 / Chapter 3.1 --- Background --- p.34 / Chapter 3.2 --- The Importance of Modelling Interest Rates --- p.40 / Chapter 3.3 --- The Scope of Study --- p.41 / Chapter 3.4 --- Major Findings --- p.42 / Chapter Chapter 4 --- Conclusion --- p.71 / Reference --- p.80

Made available in DSpace on 2014-06-11T19:22:15Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 0 Previous issue date: 2007-11-21Bitstream added on 2014-06-13T20:48:34Z : No. of bitstreams: 1 silva_lb_me_botfca.pdf: 393551 bytes, checksum: 68ad65b5247076fa26c16688a2d0cd1d (MD5) / Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq) / O presente trabalho teve como objetivo avaliar o efeito dos estágios de colheita e do repouso pós-colheita dos frutos na qualidade de sementes de mamoneira (Ricinus communis L.) cultivar AL Guarany 2002. Foram avaliadas 9 épocas de colheita dos racemos, dos 30 até 142 dias após a antese (DAA), em intervalos de 14 dias e quatro condições de repouso: sem e com repouso de sete dias de sementes extraídas (nuas), de frutos e de frutos presos ao racemo. Foram avaliados a massa fresca dos frutos, as dimensões e a cor de frutos e sementes; o teor de água, matéria seca, germinação e vigor das sementes (primeira contagem de germinação, porcentagem de plântulas vigorosas, emergência de plântulas em areia, índice de velocidade de emergência e condutividade elétrica). O estágio de colheita e o repouso póscolheita afetaram a qualidade das sementes de mamoneira. Sementes com máxima qualidade fisiológica e matéria seca foram obtidas de frutos colhidos aos 86 DAA. A colheita pode ser realizada até os 128 DAA sem redução da germinação, mas com prejuízos devido à queda dos frutos, dispersão das sementes aos 100 DAA e reduções do vigor. O repouso das sementes nuas permitiu a antecipação da colheita para 72 DAA sem prejuízos à germinação e matéria seca, mas com reduções de vigor. A cor dos frutos, das sementes e o teor de água das sementes foram parâmetros eficientes para a identificação do ponto de colheita, principalmente se usados conjuntamente. / This study aims to assess the effect of the harvesting stages process and the resting period of the post-harvest of fruits in the quality of castor bean seeds (Ricinus communis L.) AL Guarany 2002. It were assessed nine times in racemes, from 30 to the 142 day after anthesis (DAA), at intervals of fourteen days and four conditions of resting period; without and with resting period of seven days of seeds extracted (bare), fruits and fruits prisioners to the raceme. The fruits weight, the dimension and the fruits colour and seeds were then assessed: the content of water, dry matter, seed germination and vigour (first of germination, percentage of vigorous seedlings, emergence of seedlings in sand, speed emergence index and electric conductivity). The harvest stage and the post-harvest resting period affected the quality of castor bean seeds. Seeds with maximum physiological quality and dry matter were obtained from fruit harvested at 86 DAA. The harvest can be achieved by the 128 DAA without reducing germination, but with losses due to falling fruit, seed dispersal to 100 DAA and reductions in strength. The rest seeds bare allows the harvest to be brought forward to the 72 DAA without detriment to the germination and dry matter, but with reductions in strength. The colour of the fruits, seeds, and water content of seeds were effective parameters for the identification of the harvest point harvest, particularly if used together.

Tam Chak Yue, Ben. / Thesis (M.Phil.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 1997. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 49-51). / Chapter 1. --- Introduction --- p.3 / Chapter 2. --- Money and Growth in the neoclassical production function --- p.7 / Chapter 2.1 --- The Real Competitive Equilibrium --- p.8 / Chapter 2.2 --- The Monetary Competitive Equilibrium with the Cash-in-Advance approach --- p.11 / Chapter 2.3 --- Alternative Approach: Money-in-Utility-Function --- p.16 / Chapter 2.4 --- Alternative Approach: Transaction Cost --- p.20 / Chapter 3. --- Three Approaches with Endogenous Leisure --- p.25 / Chapter 3.1 --- The Real Competitive Equilibrium --- p.26 / Chapter 3.2 --- The Alternative Approaches to Interest Rate Smoothing --- p.28 / Chapter 3.2.1 --- The Cash-in-Advance Approach --- p.28 / Chapter 3.2.2 --- The Money-in-Utility-Function Approach --- p.29 / Chapter 3.2.3 --- The Transaction Cost Approach --- p.30 / Chapter 4. --- Money and Growth in an Economy with Endogenous Growth --- p.35 / Chapter 4.1 --- The Real Competitive Equilibrium of Ak Model --- p.36 / Chapter 4.2 --- The Alternative Approaches --- p.37 / Chapter 4.2.1 --- The Cash-in-Advance Approach --- p.37 / Chapter 4.2.2 --- The Money-in-Utility-Function Approach --- p.39 / Chapter 4.2.3 --- The Transaction Cost Approach --- p.40 / Chapter 5. --- Concluding Remark --- p.44 / Appendix --- p.46 / Chapter A1. --- The First Order Condition of The MIUF Approach with Endogenous Leisure --- p.46 / Chapter A2. --- The First Order Condition of The TC Approach with Endogenous Leisure --- p.46 / Chapter A3. --- The Transitional Dynamics of Ak Model with The money-in-utility-function Approach --- p.47 / Literature Cited --- p.50

A saúde das crianças menores de 5 anos é um dos problemas mais críticos que se enfrenta na Região das Américas. A mortalidade na infância é ainda um grande desafio para a maioria das regiões do nosso País. Este estudo tem como objetivo analisar a mortalidade na infância no município de Franca no ano de 2002,comparando-a com os dados obtidos no município na Investigação de 1968/70. Foram estudados 76 óbitos de crianças menores de 5 anos, ocorridos no município de Franca no período de 1 de janeiro a 31 de dezembro de 2002, residentes na zona urbana, excluindo os óbitos ocorridos fora do município ou do Estado, utilizando as informações das declarações de óbito, do Sistema de Informação de Mortalidade, do Sistema de Informação de Nascimentos da Vigilância Epidemiológica, e do Comitê de Mortalidade Infantil, da Secretaria Municipal de Saúde de Franca e dos inquéritos domiciliares. As variáveis estudadas foram idade, sexo, causas básicas e associadas de óbito, peso ao nascer, tipo de parto, fatores biológicos associados como (idade materna, duração da gestação e tipo de gestação), assistência médica, necropsias, local de ocorrência da morte e alguns fatores sócio-econômicos como, grau de instrução e ocupação da mãe. O processamento dos dados foi efetuado pelo programa Epi-info 6 e planilha Excel 2000. As análises foram feitas através da distribuição dos óbitos segundo as diferentes variáveis e dos coeficientes dos óbitos por idade, causas básicas e associadas, sexo, tipo de parto e peso ao nascer. O coeficiente de mortalidade na infância decresceu de 19,40/mil Hab. em 1968/70 para 2,83/mil Hab.em 2002, assim como o CMI de 71,5/mil NV para 12,71/mil NV.Ambos os componentes da mortalidade infantil: o neonatal (36,9/mil NV para 10,69/mil NV) e o pós-neonatal (34,6/mil NV para 2,02/mil NV), foram reduzidos, embora o componente de maior redução tenha sido o pós-neonatal. A maioria dos óbitos infantis ocorreu no período neonatal, principalmente no neonatal precoce, nas crianças com menos de 37 semanas (73,02%), em crianças com baixo peso ao nascer (77,7%), do sexo masculino (57,14%) e que nasceram através de parto normal (61,90%). A mortalidade no período de 1 à 4 anos esteve relacionada com escolaridade inferior a 7 anos de estudo (69,23%) e renda inferior a 2 salários mínimos (76,93%). Em 2002 os 2 principais grupos de causas básicas foram as afecções perinatais e as más formações congênitas. Já em 1968/70 os 2 principais grupos foram as doenças infecciosas e as afecções perinatais. As afecções perinatais que ocupavam o 2o. lugar como causa básica 24,0/mil NV) e associada (40,3/mil NV) de morte de menores de 1 ano em 1968/70, passa a ocupar o 1o. lugar como causa básica (8,8/mil NV) e associadas (16,34/mil NV), mostrando coeficientes bem menores em 2002. Apesar do decréscimo no coeficiente por doenças respiratórias de 7,9/mil NV para 1,01/mil NV estas continuam a ocupar o 3o. lugar como causa básica, tanto dos óbitos infantis (1,01/mil NV), quanto nos óbitos de 1 a 4 anos (0,046/mil NV). As causas principais no período de 1 a 4 anos, foram as doenças do sistema nervoso e causas externas, bem diferente de 1968/70, onde eram as doenças infecciosas e parasitárias e as deficiências nutricionais. Constatou-se também que a prematuridade e os transtornos respiratórios e cardiovasculares específicos do período perinatal foram as causas associadas mais freqüentes dos óbitos infantis (82,92%). As doenças infecciosas e parasitárias que em 1968/70 ocupavam o 1o.lugar em causa de morte infantil (28,3/mil NV), passam a não ocorrer como causa básica e, como associada é mínima (0,61/mil NV), vale ainda ressaltar que não ocorreu nenhum caso de diarréia, sarampo ou deficiências nutricionais como causa básica. Esta análise indica que a redução do CMI se deve principalmente às custas da queda da mortalidade pós-neonatal, com resultados apontando a importância do baixo peso ao nascer e da prematuridade, como os maiores determinantes da mortalidade infantil. / The health of children younger than 5 years old is one of the most critical problems faced in the American region. Child mortality is still a challenge for the majority of the Brazilian regions. This study aimed to analyze child mortality in the City of Franca-Brazil in the year of 2002, comparing it with the data obtained in the city’s inquiry of 1968/70. 76 cases of deaths in children younger than 5 years of age were studied. They happened in Franca, from January 1st to December 31st of the year 2002, with residents of the urban zone, excluding deaths occurred outside the city or the state, using the informations on the declarations of death, the System of Information of Mortality, the System of Information of Births of the Monitoring Epidemiologist, the Committee of Infant Mortality, the Municipal Department of health of Franca, complementary examinations and inquiries domiciliary were also used. The variables studied were age, sex, basic and associated causes of death, weight at birth, type of childbirth, associate biological factors (such as mother age, duration of the gestation and kind of gestation), medical assistance, autopsies, the place the death occurred and some partner-economic factors such as degree of mother instruction and occupation. Data processing was done with the programs Epiinfo 6 and Excel 2000. The analysis was made by the distribution of deaths according to the different variables and coefficients of death by age, basic and associated causes of death, sex, type of childbirth and weight at birth. The rates of child mortality decreased from 19,40‰ hab. in 1968/70 to 2,83‰ hab. in 2002, as well as the CMI from 71,5‰ NV to 12,71‰ NV. Both components of infant mortality – neonatal (36,9‰ NV to 10,69‰ NV) and post neonatal (34,6‰ NV to 2,02‰ NV) –were reduced, although the component of highestreduction was the post neonatal.Most infant deaths happened during the neonatal period, mainly in the precocious neonatal, in children with less than 37 weeks (73,02%), with low weight at rising (77,7%), of masculine sex (57,14%) and who had been born through normal childbirth (61,90%). Mortality in the period between 1 and 4 years of age was related to mother schooling inferior to 7 years of study (69,23%) and income smaller than 2 minimum wages (76,93%). The 2 main groups of basic causes were the perinatal causes and congenital malformations. However, in 1968/70, the two main groups had been the infectious diseases and the perinatal causes. The perinatal causes, which stood in second place (24,0‰ NV) as a basic and associated cause (40,3‰ NV) of death in infants younger than 1 year old in 1968/70, now reached first place (8,8‰ NV), although it´s coefficient is much smaller in 2002. Despite the decrease in the rates for respiratory causes from 7,9‰ NV to 1,01‰ NV, they still occupy third place in basic cause, in both infant deaths (1,01‰ NV) and deaths of children aging between 1 and 4 years (0,046‰ NV). The main causes in the period of 1 to 4 years are the nervous system causes and external causes, well different of 1968/70, where they were the infectious and parasitic illnesses and the nutritious deficiencies. It was also evidenced that the prematurity and specific respiratory and cardiovascular upheavals of the perinatal period had been the most frequent associated causes of infant deaths (82,92%). The infectious and parasitic causes, which, in 1968/70, occupied the first place in infant mortality cause (28,3/mil NV), no longer occur as basic causes and, are minimum as associated causes (0,61/mil NV). It is important to stand out that there were no cases of diarrhea, measles or nutritious deficiencies as basic causes. This analysis indicates that the reduction of the CMI is mainly due to the decrease of post neonatal mortality, with results point the importance of low weight at birth and the prematurity, as the biggest causes of infant mortality.

Esta dissertação é um estudo empírico que relaciona variáveis fiscais como dívida pública e déficit primário com a taxa de juros nominal de longo prazo, relação, que na literatura empírica como um todo, é bastante ambígua. Quando separamos, desta literatura, os trabalhos que incluem expectativas de déficits, obtemos resultados positivos e significantes, ou seja, que a contenção fiscal reduz a taxa de juros de longo prazo. Ainda nesta literatura, poucos trabalhos fazem uso de dados de painel devido à pouca disponibilidade de dados. Dessa forma, usamos um painel com 25 países e dados anuais entre 1980 e 2009. Assim, estimam-se modelos estáticos e dinâmicos em que a taxa de juros nominal de longo prazo é explicada pela dívida pública e, principalmente, o déficit primário, controlando a existência de efeitos fixos para países e anos. Utilizamos, em seguida, modelos não-lineares, para captar efeitos das variáveis fiscais de forma não-linear e com variáveis interativas. Encontra-se uma relação positiva entre as variáveis, indicando que um aumento no déficit primário leva a um aumento na taxa de juros nominal de longo prazo. A magnitude do efeito estimado é semelhante a outros estudos feitos com dados em painel. Os resultados apontam que um aumento em um ponto percentual do déficit primário leva a um aumento de zero a 10 bps sobre a taxa de juros nominal de longo prazo. Já para a dívida pública encontramos que, ao contrário do que esperaríamos pela teoria, que seu efeito sobre a taxa de juros nominal de longo prazo é insignificante e menor do que o encontrado na maior parte da literatura, menos de 2 bps, mas semelhante aos de outros trabalhos. Ao contrário de toda literatura para dados em painel, incluímos também a expectativa de déficits, variável que deveria incorporar mais informação do que somente o déficit corrente e, por isso, nossos resultados deveriam ser mais significantes. No entanto, estas variáveis não estão disponíveis para muito anos e, portanto, para esta parte do trabalho nossa amostra se reduz para 1996-2009. Contudo, ao fazermos as mesmas estimações que as anteriores, mas com a expectativa de déficit obtemos coeficientes para o déficit primário insignificantes, nem sempre positivos e baixos. Este resultado parece ser devido à amostra reduzida que temos para expectativa de déficit. / This dissertation is an empirical study that tries to capture the relationship between fiscal variables, such as the public debt and the primary deficit, and the long-term nominal interest rates, a relationship that in the empirical literature as a whole is very ambiguous. However, when, in this literature, we look only at papers that include expected deficits, we obtain positive and significant results. In the same set of studies, few use panel data due to low data availability. We use a panel with 25 countries and annual data between 1980 and 2009. We estimate static and dynamic models in which the long-term nominal interest rate is explained by the public debt and, especially, the primary deficit by controlling for the existence of fixed effects for countries and years. We then estimate non-linear models to capture the non-linear and interactive effects of fiscal variables on interest rates. We find a positive and statistically significant relationship between these variables, indicating that the primary deficit has a positive impact on the long-term nominal interest rate. The magnitude of the estimated effect is similar to other studies with panel data. They show that a one percentage point increase in the primary deficit leads to an increase from zero to 10 bps in the long-term nominal interest rate. As for the public debt, we find that, contrary to what we would expect from economic theory, its effect on the long-term nominal interest rate is negligible and smaller than that found in most of the literature, less than 2 bps, but similar to other panel studies. Unlike the rest of the literature that uses panel data, we included deficit expectations that would incorporate more information than just the current primary deficit and would, therefore, give us more statistically significant results. However, these variables are not available for large periods of time for a panel of countries and, therefore, for this part of our study, our sample is reduced to the period 1996-2009. This time, even though we estimate the same models, but now with the deficit expectations, we now obtain statistically insignificant, sometimes negative and lower coefficients for the primary deficit. Nevertheless, these results seem to be due to the small sample size we have for deficit expectations.

A condução da política monetária vem sendo descrita pela literatura recente por meio de uma regra forward-looking do tipo \"Taylor\". Neste contexto, o que a literatura identifica como o Princípio de Taylor indica que, para que haja uma política de controle inflacionário efetiva, o coeficiente de resposta dos juros nominais a um desvio da expectativa de inflação em relação à meta deve ser maior do que um. Deste modo, se este desvio for positivo, será provocado um aumento nos juros reais. No entanto, tomando uma Equação de Fischer também em termos expectacionais, a derivação da Regra nos leva a crer que tal princípio pode ser questionado, sendo necessário que este coeficiente supere ( ) t rr + 1 , ou seja, um mais os juros reais. Neste trabalho é estimada uma Regra de Taylor para o caso brasileiro, país com elevadas taxas de juros reais, buscando comparar o valor deste coeficiente ao valor de ( ) t rr + 1 . O método consiste em um Time-Varying Parameter (TVP), onde os parâmetros seguem passeios aleatórios. São utilizadas diversas combinações de dados. Os resultados mostraram uma política bastante agressiva por parte do Banco Central brasileiro em todos os períodos de análise. / The conduction of monetary policy is being described by recent literature through a forward-looking Taylor rule. In this context, what literature identifies as the Taylor Principle indicates that, for an efficient policy of inflation control, the coefficient of the response of nominal interest rates from the deviation of the inflation expectations in relation to the target should be more than one. If this deviation is positive, it will cause an increase in real interest rates. However, the derivation of the rule shows that this principle can be questioned, and the coefficient must be more than ( ) t rr + 1 , one plus the real interest rate. In this work we estimate a Taylor rule for Brazil, country with high real interest rates, trying to compare the coefficient value to ( ) t rr + 1 . The method consists in a Time-Varying Parameter (TVP), where the parameters follow a random walk process. Varied data combinations are used. The results show a very aggressive policy by the Central Bank in all periods of analysis.

There are many products, including hard drives, which require trace amounts, on the order of several mg, of lubricants for proper operation. The following study investigated the evaporation rates of pump oil and several alkanes, which have a wide range of applications, using a thermogravimetric machine. Both static and dynamic temperature tests were conducted. The rate of evaporation of the test specimen was determined as the percentage of mass loss per unit time. Using the Arrhenius Equation, the activation energy of the evaporation process, Ea, can be calculated as the slope of the best fit line for a plot of the ln(k) vs. 1/T (where k represents the rate of the evaporation). These values were shown to have good agreement with the enthalpy of vaporization calculated from the Clausius Clapeyron Equation and with the activation energy calculated using the Freeman and Carroll Method. The alkanes were compared using the rate of evaporation and the amount of activation energy required for evaporation as model systems. Further investigations were conducted to determine the relationship of surface area of the evaporating liquid and the rate of evaporation. It is suggested that the surface area is a function that depends on the activation, bonding, and interfacial energies of the liquid. However, the wetting angle, which aids in the description of the surface area, depends on the surface energy. Subsequent modeling was conducted in an attempt to predict the evaporation characteristics of other lubricants for the purpose of comparison.