Ett flertal teorier försöker förklara de starka fluktuationer växelkurser under rörlig regim uppvisar vid monetära policychocker. En av dessa teorier, Rüdiger Dornbusch:s överreaktionsmodell, menar att fluktuationer kan förklaras av skillnader i den tid varurespektive kapitalmarknaden behöver för att anpassa sig till det förändrade penningutbudet. Denna studie avser utreda modellens empiriska förklaringsförmåga genom att applicera den på fallet Schweiz 2015, där en stor och oväntad centralbanksåtgärd skapade kraftiga reaktioner på valutamarknaden. Genom ett t-test testas den potentiella överreaktionens signifikans. T-statistikan påvisar starkt stöd för att växelkursen rör sig i enlighet med Dornbusch:s modell. Diverse känslighetstester genomförs, om vilket samtliga vidimerar resultaten.

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Due to globalization investors have increasing opportunities to invest on international markets for diversification purposes. This thesis illustrates the added risks of investing internationally due to volatile exchange rates. The purpose is to analyze how a volatile exchange rate affect the risk and return of a portfolio invested in Sweden, when the investor is located in Japan, United Kingdom or the USA. To analyze the effect of exchange rate volatility the focus is on a portfolio consisting of Swedish stocks from the Stockholm Stock Exchange (SSE) O-list. First the risk and return to a hypothetical Swedish investor not exposed to exchange rate volatility is calculated. Then the effects the exchange rates had on the risk and return if a US investor, UK investor and a Japanese investor invested in the same portfolio is analyzed. For the historical period 2005 the portfolio generated a return of 34.36% and a risk of 7.7%. The empirical work showed that for the international investors the risk was increased with between 1.95% – 410.52% and that the actual return decreased due to weakening currencies against the Krona. In an attempt to predict future exchange rate movements the thesis analyses two financial relationships, PPP and IRP, to calculate equilibrium movements. Both PPP and IRP predicted a depreciation of the Dollar and Pound Sterling against the Krona over the next period, but an appreciation of the Yen against the Krona over the same period. The analytical discussion covers the importance of a well functioning financial system, the institutional effects on exchange rates and the confidence in government policies and their ability to succeed in doing what has been promised.

The thesis examine if the uncovered interest rate parity holds over a 10 year period between Japan and Australia/Norway/USA. The data is collected between February 2001 - December 2010 and is used to, through regression and correlation analysis, explain if the theory holds or not. In the thesis it is also included a simulated portfolio that shows how a carry trading strategy could have been exercised and proof is shown that you can indeed profit as an investor on this kind of trades with low risk. The thesis shows in the end that the theory of uncovered interest rate parity does not hold in the long term and that some opportunities for profits with low risk do exist. / Uppsatsen undersöker om det icke kurssäkrade ränteparitetsvilkoret har hållit på en 10-års period mellan Japan och Australien/Norge/USA. Månadsdata från februari 2001 till december 2010 används för att genom regressionsanalys samt undersökning av korrelationer se om sambandet håller eller inte. I studien finns också en simulerad portfölj som visar hur en carry trading portfölj kan ha sett ut under den undersökta tidsperioden och hur man kan profitera på denna typ av handel med låg risk. Studien visar i slutet att teorin om det kursosäkrade ränteparitetsvilkoret inte håller i det långa loppet och att vissa möjligheter till vinst existerar.

International Fisher Effect (IFE) is a theory in international finance which asserts that the spot exchange rate between countries should move in opposite direction with the interest rate differential between these countries. The aim of this thesis is to analyze whether differences in nominal interest rates between countries and the movement of spot exchange rates between their currencies tend to move together over the long run. The presence of IFE is tested among the G-5 countries and Turkey for the period from 1985:1 to 2007:12. The long run relationship is estimated with the Johansen co-integration method and supportive evidence is found for all country pairs. Individually modeled equations are further tested with the Dynamic SUR method. Those DSUR equations that include the Turkish currency provide supportive evidence for IFE that higher interest rates in favor of Turkey would cause depreciation of the Turkish Lira. The magnitude of the effect is found to be lower than expected which indicates that there might be other factors in economy, such as inflation rates, that affect the exchange rate movements.

<p>Due to globalization investors have increasing opportunities to invest on international markets for diversification purposes. This thesis illustrates the added risks of investing internationally due to volatile exchange rates. The purpose is to analyze how a volatile</p><p>exchange rate affect the risk and return of a portfolio invested in Sweden, when the investor is located in Japan, United Kingdom or the USA.</p><p>To analyze the effect of exchange rate volatility the focus is on a portfolio consisting of Swedish stocks from the Stockholm Stock Exchange (SSE) O-list. First the risk and return to a hypothetical Swedish investor not exposed to exchange rate volatility is calculated.</p><p>Then the effects the exchange rates had on the risk and return if a US investor, UK investor and a Japanese investor invested in the same portfolio is analyzed. For the historical period 2005 the portfolio generated a return of 34.36% and a risk of 7.7%. The empirical work showed that for the international investors the risk was increased</p><p>with between 1.95% – 410.52% and that the actual return decreased due to weakening currencies against the Krona.</p><p>In an attempt to predict future exchange rate movements the thesis analyses two financial relationships, PPP and IRP, to calculate equilibrium movements. Both PPP and IRP predicted a depreciation of the Dollar and Pound Sterling against the Krona over the next</p><p>period, but an appreciation of the Yen against the Krona over the same period.</p><p>The analytical discussion covers the importance of a well functioning financial system, the institutional effects on exchange rates and the confidence in government policies and their ability to succeed in doing what has been promised.</p>

This study analyzes validity of the relative purchasing power parity (PPP) and the uncovered interest rate parity (IRP) theories for the dollar/euro exchange rate. The period of analysis is from 1990 to 2003. The dollar/euro exchange rate represents the currencies of a country, the USA, and a region, the Euro Area. The basic data needed for this study are the dollar/euro exchange rate, and the inflation and the interest rates for the USA and the Euro Area. Since the Euro Area was officially formed on January 1st, 1999, we had difficulty in finding the data for the Euro Area. For the lacking Euro Area data, synthetic values are created by using the individual data of Euro Area countries. These synthetic values are treated as the equivalents of the actual values and are used in the parity implied dollar/euro exchange rate calculations. The parity implied dollar/euro exchange rates are compared with the actual dollar/euro exchange rates. Our results indicate that the parity implied dollar/euro exchange rates are statistically significantly different from the actual dollar/euro exchange rates. In other words, both the PPP and the IRP theories do not hold for the dollar/euro exchange rate.

-Exchange Rate Dynamics under Financial Market FrictionsThis paper extends Dornbusch's overshooting model by proposing "generalized interest parity condition", which assumes sluggish adjustment on the asset market. The exchange rate model under the generalized interest parity condition is able to reproduce the delayed overshooting of nominal exchange rates and the hump-shaped response to monetary shocks of both nominal and real exchange rates.-Electoral Cycle of Exchange Rate in KoreaThis paper empirically investigates the real exchange rate behavior around elections in Korea. We find that the real exchange rate depreciates more before the elections but there is no clear pattern found after the elections. Interestingly, this result is the opposite of the electoral cycle found in Latin American countries. To explain this results we should consider the difference between economic backgrounds of Korea and Latin American countries.-Exchange Rate Regime, Capital Market Openness and Monetary Policy; The Trilemma in KoreaThis paper tests the trilemma proposition by performing an empirical study of Korea. Korea has distinct periods of all combinations of exchange rate regime and capital market openness in trilemma: pegged exchange rate regime under capital controls, pegged exchange rate regime under free capital mobility, and floating exchange rate regime under free capital mobility. We check whether monetary autonomy exists in each of the three different combinations. We find that monetary autonomy existed over the periods with capital controls and the periods with floating exchange rate regime. For the periods with the pegged exchange rate regime and free capital mobility, monetary autonomy was limited. In addition, we identify that just before the financial crisis the government pursued autonomic monetary policy under pegged exchange rate regime and free capital mobility, thereby defying the trilemma.

This thesis concerns with speculative carry trade strategy. Carry trade is based on breach of Uncovered Interest Parity. The theoretical part is focused on traditional fundamental analysis. This thesis deals with the identification of carry trade existence and capture their expressions in the financial markets, verification profitability and attractiveness of carry trade operations, analysis of conditions for carry trade on financial markets before and after global financial crisis 2008. Important part of the work was also description of the consequences of carry trade transactions and their effects on the exchange rate and financial situation

<p>In this dissertation, I investigated price dynamics in the hotel room-night market and attempted to explain pricing decisions from a market perspective. Since market dynamics of the hotel room-night market can be paralleled to those in the financial market, financial market models allowed for examination of various aspects of hotel room pricing decisions.</p><p>In the first study, advance-purchase discounts were estimated through application of an option pricing model considering property-specific attributes. Non-refundable advance-purchase discounts are a commonly used rate fence. One challenge to their implementation, however, is deciding upon the precise magnitude of the discount. Quan’s (2002) study on the price of room reservations is a good starting point, but it is a conceptual model that assumes away other property-specific factors. This study thus tested the idea that advance-purchase discounts are affected by various components, including the value of the right to cancel a reservation (e.g., cancelation option value) and the room- and property-specific factors in the hotel room-night market (e.g., uncertainty, reviews, and seasonality). The analysis supported this hypothesis and additionally revealed that advance-purchase discounts are smaller for rooms with high review ratings in a high-demand period. Interestingly, the divergence between advance-purchase discounts and cancelation option value components widened in a high-demand period, which implies a tendency by hotels to adjust their room rates rather than the amount of discount for customers who book their stay well in advance. Theoretically, this study thus contributes to finance literature by extending the application of the option pricing model to real options for non-financial assets. This study also contributes to the hospitality literature by demonstrating the effects of property-specific attributes on advance-purchase discount magnitude. The results also have implications to the hospitality industry by providing an analytical framework by which hoteliers can estimate property-specific advance-purchase discounts.</p><p>The second study concentrated on rate parity agreement’s effect on the hotel room-night market’s efficiency at reflecting product characteristics in room rates. This study examined the impact of rate parity agreement between hotels and online travel agencies by comparing hotel rates between Europe and the United States. This study found that room rates were less sensitive to property quality attributes under rate parity clauses. The reflection of property quality on room rates were less efficient when hotels have rate parity agreement with OTAs. Furthermore, the results supported the claim that rate parity exacerbates price increase in periods of high demand, which indicates possible collusion between suppliers (hotels) and distributors (OTAs). The findings provided theoretical implications by testing the market efficiency of the hotel room-night market and confirming the impact at the property level. This study also provided a perspective on pricing decision makers to understand how rate parity agreement influence their pricing decisions. Last, the findings provided support for recent policies in Europe that restrict rate parity agreements between hotels and OTAs.</p><p>The third study empirically examined hoteliers’ response to the demand by observing the price movement of two rates with different cancelation policies—free cancelation rates and non-refundable rates. By modifying Hasbrouck’s (1995) information share approach, this study examined the non-refundable rates’ contribution to the price discovery process. The perceived quality of accommodation by customers, one of the primary determinants of the price discovery process, was included in analysis. The results suggested that non-refundable rates were contribute more to the information variance than free cancelation rates did. The findings also suggested that consumers’ perceived quality and volatility influence non-refundable rates’ contribution to the price discovery process. The results also have practical implications for market participants, as they help to build an understanding of aggregated demand and its impact on pricing. Non-refundable rates are generally regarded as just one of many kinds of discounted rates, but the results of this study suggest that hoteliers should carefully consider the role that non-refundable rates play in their pricing strategy.<br></p>