In the first chapter, entitled “On Cross-country Differences in the Contribution of Nontraded Goods to Real Exchange Rate Fluctuations”, The contribution of nontraded goods to Real Exchange Rate (RER) fluctuations for a large number of countries that include high, middle, and low-income countries are estimated using Engel’s (1999, JPE) approaches. We also propose a new quantity dual approach which does not require any assumption regarding the functional form for either the production function or for the overall price index to estimate similar measures. All the three approaches used yield qualitatively similar estimates, but there exists a large cross-country variation in the contributions of the nontraded goods to RER fluctuations. Income, government expenditure, exchange rate volatility, and political stability are found to be negatively correlated to the contributions of nontraded goods, while inflation, consumption expenditure, and openness are positively correlated to the contributions of nontraded goods to RER fluctuations. In the second chapter, entitled “The Great Recession and Price Convergence in the United States”, We analyze the differential nature of commodity price convergence in cities in the U.S.A. before and after the Great Recession of 2008. Using quarterly retail price data for 50 commodities from 279 cities for the period 1992- 2014, we show that the speed of price convergence for almost all the commodities increased after the great recession, and that observation is more pronounced for nonperishable prices. We also observe that the price convergence disparity between the most and the least affected states widened, with the most affected areas experiencing much higher speed of price convergence than before the Great Recession. Moreover, the geographic variations of changes in rate of convergence are noteworthy. In the third chapter, entitled “Language, Topography, and Price Convergence”, we ask what else can downgrade technological innovations, improvement of transportation infrastructures, and other policy tools in boosting integrations of commodity markets? This paper analyzes the impact of two highly exogenous variables – languages and elevations - on retail price convergence which indicates the level of market integration. Using data from a very ethnic and topographically diversified country- India- we show that language and topographical variations represent intrinsic barriers to market integration and should not be overlooked. Therefore, ceteris paribus, a country with more similarities in languages and less variation in topographical features is likely to benefit more from technological improvements and from the improvement of transportation infrastructures due to the resulting faster rate of convergence.

[pt] A literatura teórica sobre taxas de câmbio apresenta uma série de resultados de difícil respaldo empírico como o forecasting puzzle da taxa de câmbio. Ao realizarmos previsões dentro da amostra e fora da amostra para as taxas de câmbio, nominal e real, e para o índice de preços de commodities do Brasil, encontramos evidências empíricas que comprovam algumas das explicações para este puzzle. Basicamente, os resultados dentro e fora da amostra apontam que o câmbio nominal apresenta um forte componente forward looking, o que poderia explicar o fracasso de muitos modelos em prever esta variável. Os valores passados do câmbio nominal conseguem gerar previsões para preços de commodities substancialmente melhores que a de um passeio aleatório, tanto no curto quanto no longo prazo, embora a relação reversa não se verifique. Uma análise comparando as previsões de nosso modelo a um modelo autorregressivo univariado mostra que esta evidência é mais fraca do que constatamos inicialmente. Para a taxa de câmbio real estendemos a análise feita na literatura de commodity currencies para medir o poder preditivo dos modelos utilizados. Considerando o exercício dentro da amostra, os preços de commodities contribuem significativamente para as previsões da taxa de câmbio, mas a causalidade no sentido contrário também ocorre. Já para as previsões fora da amostra, o modelo de correção de erros não conseguiu superar o passeio aleatório para nenhuma variável, nem mesmo no longo prazo. Os resultados são robustos à presença de quebras estruturais. / [en] In the theoretical literature on exchange rates we find many results with little empirical support. This paper seeks to contribute to a better understanding on one of the main issues that were not fully answered: the forecasting puzzle on exchange rates. By analyzing in-sample and out-of-sample forecasts for nominal and real exchange rates and the commodity price index of Brazil, we find empirical evidence on some of the explanations for this puzzle. The results insample and out-of-sample indicate that the Brazilian nominal exchange rate has an important forward looking component, which could explain the failure of many models to predict this variable. Past values of nominal exchange rate forecasts commodity prices substantially better than a random walk, both in short and long term horizons, while the reverse relation does not hold. An additional analysis in which we compare our model with a univariate autoregressive one suggests that the evidences may not be as robust as we thought at first. For the real exchange rate we extend the analysis made in the literature on commodity currencies to measure the predictive power of these models. Considering the in-sample exercise, commodity prices play an important role in predicting the Brazilian real exchange rate. However, there is also Granger causality in the opposite direction. Regarding the out-of-sample forecasts, our error correction model could not overcome the random walk model. Our results are robust to structural breaks.

The objectives of this thesis are to: (1) examine if the resource curse exists in the context of Libya; (2) assess the role of institutions in avoiding or minimising the resource curse, and; (3) evaluate institutional and economic reforms required, and the best options to diversify the economy from oil, hence avoid the resource curse in Libya. To achieve these, three approaches are applied, (i) a three country comparative analysis; (ii) Libya country-level time-series analysis, and; (iii) institutional descriptive analysis. This thesis uses time-series data and annual datasets covering 1970-2010. Johansen’s co-integration is used to establish the long-run equilibrium relationship among the variables in the models. The Johansen co-integration test, based on the Trace and Maximum Eigenvalue statistics, is applied. In the first approach, the three case studies included in the study are Nigeria, Norway and UAE, with outcomes suggesting that Norway managed to avoid the Dutch disease, the UAE show no major signs of the resource curse, Norway and the UAE have largely managed to overcome Dutch disease, while Nigeria suffers a management curse. The first model suggests that Libya may experience a resource curse, but this may not be as a result of an appreciation of the real exchange rate. A 1% increase in the oil price will cause the Libyan exchange rate to increase (depreciate) by 1.41%. The country could potentially suffer from Dutch disease, but no evidence can be brought by the first model alone. In an attempt to reinforce the first analysis, the second model examined the sectoral impacts of the Dutch disease. Three relations are estimated; tradable sectors (manufacturing and agricultural), and non-tradable sectors (construction and services). These were all found to have been affected by oil revenue. This therefore confirms the existence of Dutch disease in Libya. The descriptive statistics analysis is used alongside five governance indicators: political stability, government effectiveness, and regulatory quality, rule of law and control of corruption. It is concluded that the quality of institutions in Libya affects economic growth negatively. The study holds several implications for policy-makers.

Este trabalho buscou verificar a existência de hysteresis nas exportações brasileiras de produtos manufaturados. Para isso, foi realizada inicialmente uma análise descritiva das empresas industriais exportadoras e a estimação de uma árvore de classificação para o período de 1989 a 1997. Essa primeira análise demonstrou que existe uma assimetria entre o número de empresas entrantes no período favorável às exportações e o número de empresas desistentes no período não favorável, dando evidências da permanência/persistência das empresas exportadoras no período de 1989-1997. Além disso, constatou-se a tendência à inação (?wait and see?) das empresas no mercado externo para período de 1990-1993 e uma indução à saída de empresas para o período de 1994-1997. Em seguida, a partir de dados agregados para o período de 1985 a 2003, foi realizada uma análise de séries temporais. Os resultados dessa análise evidenciaram a hipótese de existência de hysteresis para alguns setores selecionados, tanto no longo prazo como para o curto prazo. / This work had as main objective to verify the existence of hysteresis in the Brazilian exportations of manufactured products. For this objective, a descriptive analysis of exporting industrial firms was initially carried through and the estimate of a tree of classification for the period of 1989 - 1997. These first analyses had demonstrated that existence of an asymmetry between the number of incoming firms in the period favorable to the exportations and the number of desisting firms in the not favorable period, giving evidences of the permanence/persistence of the exporting firms in the period of 1989-1997. Moreover, one evidenced an trend of \"wait and see\" of the firms in the export market for the period of 1990-1993 and induction to the exit of firms for the period of 1994-1997. After that, from aggregated data for the period of 1985 - 2003, a time serial analysis was carried through. These results had been corroborated that evidenced the of hysteresis hypothesis for some selected sectors, as much in the long-run as for short-run.

Submitted by Yuri Verges (yuriverges@globo.com) on 2013-09-16T17:39:30Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertacao - Mestrado - Final_emp.pdf: 1197027 bytes, checksum: 7764f3a7c8f5b1629b0653dfe430a87a (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Suzinei Teles Garcia Garcia (suzinei.garcia@fgv.br) on 2013-09-16T17:40:56Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertacao - Mestrado - Final_emp.pdf: 1197027 bytes, checksum: 7764f3a7c8f5b1629b0653dfe430a87a (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2013-09-16T17:44:44Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertacao - Mestrado - Final_emp.pdf: 1197027 bytes, checksum: 7764f3a7c8f5b1629b0653dfe430a87a (MD5) / This work aims to estimate and compare VECM models with the TVECM models, in the modeling and study of exchange rate misalignment and how the adjustment of the real exchange rates proceed under a nonlinear modeling scope. Error correction models with distinct characteristics will be addressed as a strategy to study the error correction mechanism. As a linear method, this work will use the cointegration techniques proposed by Johansen (1988), the traditional approach. And as the nonlinear method the approach used was initially proposed by Balke and Fomby (1997), who consider a mechanism for error correction to incorporate features TAR and SETAR. To analyze the presence of nonlinearity in the error correction between time series, were performed in this work the proposed tests by Kapetanios, Shin and Snell, (2003), Hansen and Seo (2002) and Seo (2006) / Esta dissertação tem como objetivo a estimação e comparação entre modelos VECM com a abordagem de modelos TVECM, na modelagem e estudo do desalinhamento cambial e como o ajuste do câmbio real para que procede. Como estratégia a ser abordada serão considerados modelos de correção de erros com características distintas. Utilizaremos como abordagem linear a técnica de cointegração proposta por Johansen (1988), a abordagem tradicional. Como técnica não linear utilizaremos a abordagem inicialmente proposta por BALKE, FOMBY(1997), que consideram um mecanismo de correção de erros de forma a incorporar características TAR e SETAR. Para a análise da presença ou não de não linearidade na correção de erros entre as séries, foram realizados neste trabalho os testes de Kapetanios, Shin e Snell (2003), Hansen e Seo(2002) e Seo (2006)

Magister Commercii - MCom / The purpose of this study was to evaluate econometrically the effects of real exchange rate misalignment on South African exports between the period 1994 and 2015 using quarterly time-series data. Cointegration tests were done using the Johansen and Juselius approach. The study examined the effects of real exchange rate misalignment of the rand on South Africa’s exports, namely manufactured goods exports, automotive and chemical exports, mining exports, machinery and transport equipment exports and agricultural exports, on both an aggregate and a sectoral level. The long run impact of real exchange rate misalignment on total exports was found to be negative and significant, implying that real exchange rate misalignment negatively affects exports. In the short run, misalignment of the currency was found to enhance export growth and is not sustainable in the long run. On the sectoral level, the study found that in the long run exports are influenced by real exchange rate misalignment with varying sensitivity. Manufactured goods exports, automotive and chemical exports and machinery and transport equipment exports are all negatively affected by real exchange rate misalignment. On the contrary, mining exports and agricultural exports are positively affected by real exchange rate misalignment. Therefore, if an export-led growth path is envisaged for the South African economy, it is important for monetary and fiscal policy to be conducted in such a manner that ensures stability in the real exchange rate at an appropriate level. This will ultimately aid export competitiveness for South Africa. Based on the findings of this study, the researcher recommends that misalignment of the currency should be avoided at all costs.

The Current Account and Balance of Payments: Implications towards the Real Exchange Rate, GDP Growth, Asset Prices and Stability Abstract in English In the aftermath of the global financial crisis, large global imbalances among countries' current account have been cited as a possible cause. The real exchange rate emerges as a key policy tool among countries within the research literature and in practice to manage a country's Balance of Payments indicators, despite mixed evidence. In this master thesis, we will construct a vector error correction model for cointegrating relationships utilizing the Johansen's test, using time series data for the US, UK, and Australia for the period 1973-2018. We examined the relationships between the real exchange rate, the current account, the financial account, net reserves, the interest rate, and openness to trade as well as employing Granger Causality tests. In the US, we found relationships between net reserves and both the current account and the real exchange rate. In the UK, the interest rate and the real exchange rate have a cointegrating relationship. In both the UK and Australia, we found a cointegrating relationship with the real exchange rate and current account. We examine the various theoretical and practical approaches towards viewing the Balance of Payments...

Using a hybrid of the Heckscher–Ohlin model and specific factor model of trade, this article considers the phenomenon of FDI inflows only in the exportable sector of developing economies. We investigate the impact of such capital flow on factor prices and the real exchange rate (RER) in the host country. Our results indicate that the exportable production expands while both the non-traded good production and the return to the factor specific to the non-traded good decrease, consequent upon an inflow of capital specific to the exportable sector. The effect of such inflow of foreign capital on the RER is unambiguous and it increases. JEL Codes: F1, F21, F31

This study has analysed the misalignment of the real exchange rates of the eleven original euro members at the introduction of the euro, and their consequences for inflation in the first five and ten years of the monetary union. Using four separate models of real equilibrium exchange rates, the largest overvaluations are found for Portugal and Germany, and the largest undervaluations are found for Ireland and Finland. In accordance with theory, adjustment towards equilibrium through inflation rate differentials seems to have occurred: the effect being clear with regard to two of the models, and ambiguous according to the two remaining. The study sheds light on the appropriateness of the conversion rates at the introduction of the euro in 1999, and the macroeconomic consequences of real exchange rate misalignment.

This thesis analyses the extent to which a boom in a particular export commodity sector (i.e., oil) affects relative price of non-tradable goods against tradable goods, the real exchange rate and competitiveness in the rest of the economy: This problem has been analysed in the early stage by (Corden and Neary 1982) with the so-called ‘Dutch-disease’. As a result, booming sector (oil Sector) the country’s currency appreciates, thereby reducing the competitiveness of the country’s traditional export sector in international market. This thesis examines whether Dutch Disease is present in Iraq in the light of having not study about Dutch Disease phenomena. It evaluates the impact of growing oil revenues on non-oil sectors of the Iraqi economy. It produces some empirical evidence for the explanation non-tradable goods and contraction of tradable goods sector due to booming oil sector and appreciation real exchange rate and made tradable goods sector become uncompetitive for export. The main findings form this thesis that the Iraqi economy was subject to have the Dutch disease phenomena during the boom. Some of the indications of the disease, remarkably the increase of relative prices, the real exchange rate appreciation, contraction tradable goods sector and expansion of nontraded goods output were applicable. The study uses annual time series data sourced from home and international agencies from 1970 to 2013. Due to problem with endogeneity, the data are analysed through the use of two stages least square. Finally, the thesis discusses briefly some policy measures that will help avoid the issue of appreciation real exchange rate and changing the structure of economy out of tradable goods to non-tradable goods sector.