A risky project evaluation technique called the fuzzy real options analysis is developed to evaluate brownfield redevelopment projects. Other decision making techniques, such as multiple criteria analysis and conflict analysis, can be incorporated into fuzzy real options analysis to facilitate negotiations on brownfield redevelopment among decision makers (DMs). The value of managerial flexibility, which is important in negotiations and policy making for brownfield redevelopment, is overlooked when the traditional evaluation method, net present value (NPV), is employed. Findings of this thesis can be used to promote brownfield redevelopment, thereby helping to eliminate environmental threats and enhance regional sustainability. A brownfield is an abandoned or underutilized property that contains, or may contain, pollutants, hazardous substances, or contaminants from previous usage, typically industrial activity. Brownfields often occur when the local economy transits from industrial to service-oriented seeking more profit. Governments actively promote brownfield redevelopment to eliminate public health threats, help economic transition, and enhance sustainability. However, developers are reluctant to participate in brownfield redevelopment because they often regard these projects as unprofitable when using classic evaluation techniques. On the other hand, case studies show that brownfield redevelopment projects can be good business opportunities for developers. An improved evaluation method is developed in order to estimate the value of a brownfield more accurately. The main reason that makes the difference between estimates and ''actual'' values lies in the failure of the deterministic project evaluation tool to price the value of uncertainty, which leads to efforts to enhance the decision making under uncertainty. Real options modelling, which extends the ability of option pricing models in real asset evaluation, is employed in risky project evaluation because of its capacity to handle uncertainties. However, brownfield redevelopment projects contain uncertain factors that have no market price, thus violating the assumption of option pricing models for which all risks have been reflected in the market. This problem, called private risk, is addressed by incorporating fuzzy numbers into real options in this thesis, which can be called fuzzy real options. Fuzzy real options are shown to generalize the original model to deal with additional kinds of uncertainties, making them more suitable for project evaluation. A numerical technique based on hybrid variables is developed to price fuzzy real options. We proposed an extension of Least Squares Monte-Carlo simulation (LSM) that produces numerical evaluations of options. A major advantage of this methodology lies in its ability to produce results regardless of whether or not an analytic solution exists. Tests show that the generalized LSM produces similar results to the analytic valuation of fuzzy real options, when this is possible. To facilitate parameter estimation for the fuzzy real options model, another numerical method is proposed to represent the likelihood of contamination of a brownfield using fuzzy boundaries. Linguistic quantifiers and ordered weighted averaging (OWA) techniques are utilized to determine the likelihood of pollution at sample locations based on multiple environmental indicators, acting as a fuzzy deduction rule to calculate the triangle membership functions of the fuzzy parameters. Risk preferences of DMs are expressed as different ''ORness'' levels of OWA operators, which affect likelihood estimates. When the fuzzy boundaries of a brownfield are generated by interpolation of sample points, the parameters of fuzzy real options, drift rate and volatility, can be calculated as fuzzy numbers. Hence, this proposed method can act as an intermediary between DMs and the fuzzy real options models, making this model much easier to apply. The values of DMs to a brownfield can be input to the graph model for conflict resolution (GMCR) to identify possible resolutions during brownfield redevelopment negotiation among all possible states, or combinations of DMs' choices. Major redevelopment policies are studied using a brownfield redevelopment case, Ralgreen Community in Kitchener, Ontario, Canada. The fuzzy preference framework and probability-based comparison method to rank fuzzy variables are employed to integrate fuzzy real options and GMCR. Insights into this conflict and general policy suggestions are provided. A potential negotiation support system (NSS) implementing these numerical methods is discussed in the context of negotiating brownfield redevelopment projects. The NSS combines the computational modules, decision support system (DSS) prototypes, and geographic information systems (GIS), and message systems. A public-private partnership (PPP) will be enhanced through information sharing, scenario generation, and conflict analysis provided by the NSS, encouraging more efficient brownfield redevelopment and leading to greater regional sustainability. The integrated usage of fuzzy real options, OWA, and GMCR takes advantage of fuzziness and randomness, making better evaluation technique available in a multiple DMs negotiation setting. Decision techniques expand their range from decision analysis, multiple criteria analysis, to a game-theoretic approach, contributing to a big picture on decision making under uncertainty. When these methods are used to study brownfield redevelopment, we found that creating better business opportunities, such as allowing land use change to raise net income, are more important in determining equilibria than remediation cost refunding. Better redevelopment policies can be proposed to aid negotiations among stakeholders.

A risky project evaluation technique called the fuzzy real options analysis is developed to evaluate brownfield redevelopment projects. Other decision making techniques, such as multiple criteria analysis and conflict analysis, can be incorporated into fuzzy real options analysis to facilitate negotiations on brownfield redevelopment among decision makers (DMs). The value of managerial flexibility, which is important in negotiations and policy making for brownfield redevelopment, is overlooked when the traditional evaluation method, net present value (NPV), is employed. Findings of this thesis can be used to promote brownfield redevelopment, thereby helping to eliminate environmental threats and enhance regional sustainability. A brownfield is an abandoned or underutilized property that contains, or may contain, pollutants, hazardous substances, or contaminants from previous usage, typically industrial activity. Brownfields often occur when the local economy transits from industrial to service-oriented seeking more profit. Governments actively promote brownfield redevelopment to eliminate public health threats, help economic transition, and enhance sustainability. However, developers are reluctant to participate in brownfield redevelopment because they often regard these projects as unprofitable when using classic evaluation techniques. On the other hand, case studies show that brownfield redevelopment projects can be good business opportunities for developers. An improved evaluation method is developed in order to estimate the value of a brownfield more accurately. The main reason that makes the difference between estimates and ''actual'' values lies in the failure of the deterministic project evaluation tool to price the value of uncertainty, which leads to efforts to enhance the decision making under uncertainty. Real options modelling, which extends the ability of option pricing models in real asset evaluation, is employed in risky project evaluation because of its capacity to handle uncertainties. However, brownfield redevelopment projects contain uncertain factors that have no market price, thus violating the assumption of option pricing models for which all risks have been reflected in the market. This problem, called private risk, is addressed by incorporating fuzzy numbers into real options in this thesis, which can be called fuzzy real options. Fuzzy real options are shown to generalize the original model to deal with additional kinds of uncertainties, making them more suitable for project evaluation. A numerical technique based on hybrid variables is developed to price fuzzy real options. We proposed an extension of Least Squares Monte-Carlo simulation (LSM) that produces numerical evaluations of options. A major advantage of this methodology lies in its ability to produce results regardless of whether or not an analytic solution exists. Tests show that the generalized LSM produces similar results to the analytic valuation of fuzzy real options, when this is possible. To facilitate parameter estimation for the fuzzy real options model, another numerical method is proposed to represent the likelihood of contamination of a brownfield using fuzzy boundaries. Linguistic quantifiers and ordered weighted averaging (OWA) techniques are utilized to determine the likelihood of pollution at sample locations based on multiple environmental indicators, acting as a fuzzy deduction rule to calculate the triangle membership functions of the fuzzy parameters. Risk preferences of DMs are expressed as different ''ORness'' levels of OWA operators, which affect likelihood estimates. When the fuzzy boundaries of a brownfield are generated by interpolation of sample points, the parameters of fuzzy real options, drift rate and volatility, can be calculated as fuzzy numbers. Hence, this proposed method can act as an intermediary between DMs and the fuzzy real options models, making this model much easier to apply. The values of DMs to a brownfield can be input to the graph model for conflict resolution (GMCR) to identify possible resolutions during brownfield redevelopment negotiation among all possible states, or combinations of DMs' choices. Major redevelopment policies are studied using a brownfield redevelopment case, Ralgreen Community in Kitchener, Ontario, Canada. The fuzzy preference framework and probability-based comparison method to rank fuzzy variables are employed to integrate fuzzy real options and GMCR. Insights into this conflict and general policy suggestions are provided. A potential negotiation support system (NSS) implementing these numerical methods is discussed in the context of negotiating brownfield redevelopment projects. The NSS combines the computational modules, decision support system (DSS) prototypes, and geographic information systems (GIS), and message systems. A public-private partnership (PPP) will be enhanced through information sharing, scenario generation, and conflict analysis provided by the NSS, encouraging more efficient brownfield redevelopment and leading to greater regional sustainability. The integrated usage of fuzzy real options, OWA, and GMCR takes advantage of fuzziness and randomness, making better evaluation technique available in a multiple DMs negotiation setting. Decision techniques expand their range from decision analysis, multiple criteria analysis, to a game-theoretic approach, contributing to a big picture on decision making under uncertainty. When these methods are used to study brownfield redevelopment, we found that creating better business opportunities, such as allowing land use change to raise net income, are more important in determining equilibria than remediation cost refunding. Better redevelopment policies can be proposed to aid negotiations among stakeholders.

Bakgrund: Länge har paybackmetoden, nettonuvärdesmetoden och andra diskonteringsmetoder haft en ledande ställning när företag gör sina investeringsbedömningar. Metoderna har fått kritik för att inte ta hänsyn till beslutsfattarnas flexibilitet och på så sätt underskatta värdet av en investering. Syfte: Syftet med uppsatsen är att utreda i vilken utsträckning svenska företag använder sig av reala optioner och förklara varför metoden inte används i större utsträckning. Vidare syftar uppsatsen till att förklara varför användningen skiljer sig mellan USA och Sverige. Ytterligare ett syfte är att undersöka vilka kapitalbudgeteringsmetoder som används i Sverige idag . Metod: I uppsatsen har främst en kvantitativ metod använts i form av en enkätundersökning. Metoden kompletterades senare med den kvalitativa metoden, då i form av en intervju med en användare av reala optioner. Slutsatser: Payback- och DCF-metoden dominerar fortfarande bland de svenska företagen. Enkätundersökningen fann en användare av reala optioner. Resterande företag är nöjda med sina metoder och anser att reala optioner är en komplicerad metod som inte kan tillföra värde till företaget. / Background: When it comes to investment decisions the most frequently used methods are payback and the net present value model. These methods have been criticized for not taking decision makers flexibility into account and thus underestimate the value of an investment. Aim: The purpose of this paper is to investigate to what extent Swedish companies use real options and explain why the method is not used more widely. Furthermore, the study tries to explain why the use of real options differs between U.S. and Sweden. Another purpose is to examine what capital budgeting methods are used in Sweden today. Method: The mainly used method is the quantitative method in form of a survey. This method has been supplemented with the qualitative method, in form of an interview with one user of real options. Conclusions: The payback and DCF method is still predominant among Swedish companies. The survey found one user of real options. All other companies are satisfied with their used method and do not believe that real options can add more value.

Resumo: Abordagem mais cuidadosa dessas análises devem ser tomadas pelos gestores quando a ordem de grandeza desses investimento é especialmente elevada. Ao focar o ganho ou manutenção da vantagem competitiva em longo prazo, através de investimentos em pesquisa e desenvolvimento (P&D) a indústria aeronáutica brasileira ainda apóia suas decisões em técnicas tradicionais, como o valor presente líquido (VPL) e a taxa interna de retorno (TIR). As limitações, dessas técnicas muitas vezes passam despercebidas pelos gestores, resultando em decisões não adequadas de investimentos em projetos de P&D. Propõe-se a aplicação da técnica da Teoria das Opções Reais (TOR) para captar os diversos tipos de flexibilidade gerencial existentes nesses projetos estratégicos, através de técnicas matemáticas de entendimento mais simples. Também é objetivo desta dissertação demonstrar a viabilidade do uso da TOR pelos gestores da indústria aeronáutica brasileira. São analisados três estudos de projetos de pesquisa e desenvolvimento na indústria aeronáutica e, a partir deles, pode-se demonstrar que aa TOR é aplicável nesse processo de tomada de decisão, conduzindo a decisões adequadas. As aplicações da TOR são muitas e a intenção deste trabalho foi destacar apenas alguns tipos de uso mais comuns neste tipo de indústria. Sugerem-se aplicações complementares a esses estudos e outras abordagens promissoras para essa técnica, seja em nosso país ou no ambiente corporativo em geral. / Abstract: Daily, enterprises need make decisions about investments provision. Diligent approaches of theses analysis sould be taken by the managers when the magnitude of these investments is especially high. In focusing profits or to support the competitive advantage in long term, through research and development (R&D) investments, the Brazilian aeronautic industry still make decisions using traditional methodologies, as net present value (NPV) or internal return rate (IRR). The constraints of these methodologies often are unnoticed by the decision makers, resulting in not suitable R&D projects investments decisions. It is suggested the use of Real Options Analysis (ROA) in order to capturing the different mangerial flexibilities types existing in suchstrategic projects, through simplest understanding mathematical approaches. This Master dessertation aims as well that the ROA is feasible to be used by the decision makers at the Brazilian aeronautic industry. Three research and development studies are carried out at aeronautic industry and from them could be demonstrated that ROA is apllicable to these making decision processes, leading to suitable decisions. There are great deals of ROA applications and the objective of this work was to emphasize scarcely some of these most currente applications at this kind of industry. It is suggested complementary applications to this work and other promising approaches for this methodology, either in our country or in the corporative environment worldwide. / Orientador: Fernando Augusto Silva Marins / Coorientador: Edgard Dias Batista Júnior / Banca: Guilherme Eugênio Filippo Fernandes Filho / Banca: Edson de Oliveira Pamplona / Mestre

Changing the business operations and adopting new operational innovations, have become key features for a business solution approach. However, there are challenges for developing innovative operations due to a lack of the proper decision analysis tools, lack of understanding the impacts transition will have on operational models, and the time limits of the innovation life cycle. The cases of business failure in operational innovation (i.e. Eastman Kodak Company and Borders Group Inc.,) support the need for an investment decision framework. This research aims to develop a Real Option Dynamic Decision (RODD) framework for decision making, to support decision makers for operational innovation investments. This development will help the business/organization to recognize the need for change in operations, and quickly respond to market threats and customer needs. The RODD framework is developed by integrating a strategic investment method (Real Options Analysis), management transition evaluation (Matrix of Change), competitiveness evaluation (Lotka-Volterra), and dynamic behavior modeling (System Dynamics Modeling) to analyze the feasibility of the transformation, and to assess return on investment of new operation schemes. Two case studies are used: United Parcel Service of America, Inc., and Firefighting Operations to validate the RODD framework. The results show that the benefits of this decisionmaking framework are (1) to provide increased flexibility, improved predictions, and more information to decision makers; (2) to assess the value alternative option with regards to uncertainty and competitiveness; (3) to reduce complexity; and (4) to gain a new understanding of operational innovations.

A crise financeira mundial de 2008 associada a fatores intrínsecos adversos afetou fortemente o setor sucroalcooleiro nacional, até então em franca expansão. Ainda que em um momento desfavorável, prevê-se, para um futuro próximo, a retomada dos investimentos no setor, em virtude do aumento da demanda, tanto interna quanto externa, de açúcar e etanol. Nesse contexto, o objetivo do trabalho é avaliar o valor da opção de adiamento, através da análise de opções reais, em projetos de produção de cana-de-açúcar em regiões de grande aptidão à expansão da cultura canavieira: Goiatuba/GO, Maracaju/MS e Uberaba/MG. Os resultados indicam que, sob a ótica da avaliação tradicional de projetos, os três projetos de produção de cana-de-açúcar mostram-se inviáveis, com VPLs de -R$ 4.726.546,86 em Goiatuba/GO, -R$ 3.251.006,50 em Maracaju/MS, enquanto em Uberaba/MG o resultado foi negativo em R$ 3.918.210,03. Através de uma análise de sensibilidade, detecta-se que, para as três regiões, as principais variáveis sujeitas a risco, consideradas no estudo, a afetar o resultado dos projetos são: produtividade, quantidade de ATR e preço de ATR. Essas variáveis são utilizadas para, através da Simulação de Monte Carlo, auferir os desvios-padrão dos retornos dos VPLs de cada projeto, a partir dos quais são calculados os parâmetros para construção de modelo binomial utilizado para valorar a opção de adiamento. Os valores apurados da opção de adiamento para cada região são de R$ 12.774.411,36 para Goiatuba/GO, R$ 2.514.292,71 para Maracaju/MS e R$ 76.086,52 para Uberaba/MG. Quando somados os valores da opção para cada região aos seus respectivos VPLs são apurados os VPLs expandidos: R$ 8.047.864,50 para Goiatuba/GO, R$ -736.713,79 para Maracaju/MS e R$ -3.842.123,50 em Uberaba/MG. Ademais, são definidos os pontos de inflexão das variáveis sujeitas a risco consideradas no trabalho para critério de rejeição dos projetos, tanto na avaliação tradicional de projetos quanto na avaliação a partir das opções reais. Os resultados indicam que a análise de opções reais como critério para rejeição de projetos tende a ser mais maleável em relação às variáveis sujeitas a risco quando comparada à avaliação tradicional de projetos, admitindo menores valores de produtividade, quantidade de ATR e preço do ATR, bem como suportando maiores preços de terra e de custos com corte, carregamento e transporte (CCT) de cana. Não obstante, os VPLs expandidos apontam que o projeto de Goiatuba/GO não deve ser rejeitado, mantendo-se como uma opção de investimento futuro; quanto a Maracaju/MS, a consideração da opção de adiamento na avaliação de projetos não foi suficiente, por si só, para reverter o resultado negativo do VPL tradicional; contudo, pequenos incrementos em variáveis de risco intrínsecas à atividade poderiam tornar o VPL expandido superior a zero, viabilizando o projeto como opção futura de investimento. No caso de Uberaba/MG, o baixo valor da opção de adiamento associado ao já deprimido VPL tradicional leva à rejeição do projeto como opção de investimento futuro. / The global financial crisis in 2008 associated to adverse intrinsic aspects affected significantly the sugarcane sector in Brazil, which was expanding notably until that time. Even though it is in an unfavorable moment, it is forecasted, in a near future, the rebound of investments in the sector, due to the increase of both domestic and international demands for sugar and ethanol. In this scenario, the objective of this study is to evaluate the value of the deferred option, through the analysis of real options, in projects of sugarcane production in regions that have great ability to expand the sugarcane production in Brazil: Goiatuba (Goiás), Maracaju (Mato Grosso do Sul) and Uberaba (Minas Gerais). The results indicate that, regarding the perspective of the traditional evaluation of projects, the three projects of sugarcane production are not viable, with NPVs of -4,726,546.86 reais (Brazilian currency) in Goiatuba (Goiás State), -3,251,006.50 reais in Maracaju (Mato Grosso do Sul State) and - 3,918,210.03 reais in Uberaba (Minas Gerais State). Through a sensitivity analysis, it was discovered that, for the three regions, the major variables subject to risk considered in the study that can affect the results of the projects are: productivity, quantity of TRS (Total Recoverable Sugar) and TRS price. These variables are used to, through the Monte Carlo Simulation, detect the standard deviations of the NPVs\' returns of each project, from which the parameters to construct a binomial model used to value the deferred option are calculated. The values for the deferral option in each region are 12,774,411.36 reais in Goiatuba, 2,514,292.71 reais in Maracaju and 76,086.52 reais in Uberaba. When the option values in each region are added to their respective NPVs, the result is the expanded NPVs: 8,047,864.50 reais in Goiatuba, 736,713.79 reais in Maracaju and -3,842,123.50 reais in Uberaba. Moreover, the inflection points of variables subject to risk considered in the study are defined for both the traditional projects\' evaluation and the evaluation from real options. The results indicate that the analysis of real options as a standard to reject projects tends to be more flexible regarding variables subject to risk when compared to the traditional evaluation of projects, admitting lower values of productivity, TRS amount and TRS price, and accepting higher land prices and costs with cutting, loading and transportation of sugarcane. Nevertheless, expanded NPVs indicate that the project in Goiatuba must not be rejected, continuing as an option of future investment; as for Maracaju, considering the deferred option in the project\'s evaluation was not enough, on its own, to revert the negative result of the traditional NPV; however, slight increases in risk variables intrinsic to the activity could make the expanded NPV higher than zero, enabling the project as a future investment option. Concerning Uberaba, the low value of the deferred option associated to the already reduced traditional NPV takes to the rejection of the project as a future investment option.

Made available in DSpace on 2014-06-11T19:34:57Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 0 Previous issue date: 2006-10Bitstream added on 2014-06-13T18:48:08Z : No. of bitstreams: 1 amarosobrinho_a_me_guara.pdf: 868347 bytes, checksum: 894646381e2ec72a61045877ecedc49b (MD5) / Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES) / Abordagem mais cuidadosa dessas análises devem ser tomadas pelos gestores quando a ordem de grandeza desses investimento é especialmente elevada. Ao focar o ganho ou manutenção da vantagem competitiva em longo prazo, através de investimentos em pesquisa e desenvolvimento (P&D) a indústria aeronáutica brasileira ainda apóia suas decisões em técnicas tradicionais, como o valor presente líquido (VPL) e a taxa interna de retorno (TIR). As limitações, dessas técnicas muitas vezes passam despercebidas pelos gestores, resultando em decisões não adequadas de investimentos em projetos de P&D. Propõe-se a aplicação da técnica da Teoria das Opções Reais (TOR) para captar os diversos tipos de flexibilidade gerencial existentes nesses projetos estratégicos, através de técnicas matemáticas de entendimento mais simples. Também é objetivo desta dissertação demonstrar a viabilidade do uso da TOR pelos gestores da indústria aeronáutica brasileira. São analisados três estudos de projetos de pesquisa e desenvolvimento na indústria aeronáutica e, a partir deles, pode-se demonstrar que aa TOR é aplicável nesse processo de tomada de decisão, conduzindo a decisões adequadas. As aplicações da TOR são muitas e a intenção deste trabalho foi destacar apenas alguns tipos de uso mais comuns neste tipo de indústria. Sugerem-se aplicações complementares a esses estudos e outras abordagens promissoras para essa técnica, seja em nosso país ou no ambiente corporativo em geral. / Daily, enterprises need make decisions about investments provision. Diligent approaches of theses analysis sould be taken by the managers when the magnitude of these investments is especially high. In focusing profits or to support the competitive advantage in long term, through research and development (R&D) investments, the Brazilian aeronautic industry still make decisions using traditional methodologies, as net present value (NPV) or internal return rate (IRR). The constraints of these methodologies often are unnoticed by the decision makers, resulting in not suitable R&D projects investments decisions. It is suggested the use of Real Options Analysis (ROA) in order to capturing the different mangerial flexibilities types existing in suchstrategic projects, through simplest understanding mathematical approaches. This Master dessertation aims as well that the ROA is feasible to be used by the decision makers at the Brazilian aeronautic industry. Three research and development studies are carried out at aeronautic industry and from them could be demonstrated that ROA is apllicable to these making decision processes, leading to suitable decisions. There are great deals of ROA applications and the objective of this work was to emphasize scarcely some of these most currente applications at this kind of industry. It is suggested complementary applications to this work and other promising approaches for this methodology, either in our country or in the corporative environment worldwide.

A crise financeira mundial de 2008 associada a fatores intrínsecos adversos afetou fortemente o setor sucroalcooleiro nacional, até então em franca expansão. Ainda que em um momento desfavorável, prevê-se, para um futuro próximo, a retomada dos investimentos no setor, em virtude do aumento da demanda, tanto interna quanto externa, de açúcar e etanol. Nesse contexto, o objetivo do trabalho é avaliar o valor da opção de adiamento, através da análise de opções reais, em projetos de produção de cana-de-açúcar em regiões de grande aptidão à expansão da cultura canavieira: Goiatuba/GO, Maracaju/MS e Uberaba/MG. Os resultados indicam que, sob a ótica da avaliação tradicional de projetos, os três projetos de produção de cana-de-açúcar mostram-se inviáveis, com VPLs de -R$ 4.726.546,86 em Goiatuba/GO, -R$ 3.251.006,50 em Maracaju/MS, enquanto em Uberaba/MG o resultado foi negativo em R$ 3.918.210,03. Através de uma análise de sensibilidade, detecta-se que, para as três regiões, as principais variáveis sujeitas a risco, consideradas no estudo, a afetar o resultado dos projetos são: produtividade, quantidade de ATR e preço de ATR. Essas variáveis são utilizadas para, através da Simulação de Monte Carlo, auferir os desvios-padrão dos retornos dos VPLs de cada projeto, a partir dos quais são calculados os parâmetros para construção de modelo binomial utilizado para valorar a opção de adiamento. Os valores apurados da opção de adiamento para cada região são de R$ 12.774.411,36 para Goiatuba/GO, R$ 2.514.292,71 para Maracaju/MS e R$ 76.086,52 para Uberaba/MG. Quando somados os valores da opção para cada região aos seus respectivos VPLs são apurados os VPLs expandidos: R$ 8.047.864,50 para Goiatuba/GO, R$ -736.713,79 para Maracaju/MS e R$ -3.842.123,50 em Uberaba/MG. Ademais, são definidos os pontos de inflexão das variáveis sujeitas a risco consideradas no trabalho para critério de rejeição dos projetos, tanto na avaliação tradicional de projetos quanto na avaliação a partir das opções reais. Os resultados indicam que a análise de opções reais como critério para rejeição de projetos tende a ser mais maleável em relação às variáveis sujeitas a risco quando comparada à avaliação tradicional de projetos, admitindo menores valores de produtividade, quantidade de ATR e preço do ATR, bem como suportando maiores preços de terra e de custos com corte, carregamento e transporte (CCT) de cana. Não obstante, os VPLs expandidos apontam que o projeto de Goiatuba/GO não deve ser rejeitado, mantendo-se como uma opção de investimento futuro; quanto a Maracaju/MS, a consideração da opção de adiamento na avaliação de projetos não foi suficiente, por si só, para reverter o resultado negativo do VPL tradicional; contudo, pequenos incrementos em variáveis de risco intrínsecas à atividade poderiam tornar o VPL expandido superior a zero, viabilizando o projeto como opção futura de investimento. No caso de Uberaba/MG, o baixo valor da opção de adiamento associado ao já deprimido VPL tradicional leva à rejeição do projeto como opção de investimento futuro. / The global financial crisis in 2008 associated to adverse intrinsic aspects affected significantly the sugarcane sector in Brazil, which was expanding notably until that time. Even though it is in an unfavorable moment, it is forecasted, in a near future, the rebound of investments in the sector, due to the increase of both domestic and international demands for sugar and ethanol. In this scenario, the objective of this study is to evaluate the value of the deferred option, through the analysis of real options, in projects of sugarcane production in regions that have great ability to expand the sugarcane production in Brazil: Goiatuba (Goiás), Maracaju (Mato Grosso do Sul) and Uberaba (Minas Gerais). The results indicate that, regarding the perspective of the traditional evaluation of projects, the three projects of sugarcane production are not viable, with NPVs of -4,726,546.86 reais (Brazilian currency) in Goiatuba (Goiás State), -3,251,006.50 reais in Maracaju (Mato Grosso do Sul State) and - 3,918,210.03 reais in Uberaba (Minas Gerais State). Through a sensitivity analysis, it was discovered that, for the three regions, the major variables subject to risk considered in the study that can affect the results of the projects are: productivity, quantity of TRS (Total Recoverable Sugar) and TRS price. These variables are used to, through the Monte Carlo Simulation, detect the standard deviations of the NPVs\' returns of each project, from which the parameters to construct a binomial model used to value the deferred option are calculated. The values for the deferral option in each region are 12,774,411.36 reais in Goiatuba, 2,514,292.71 reais in Maracaju and 76,086.52 reais in Uberaba. When the option values in each region are added to their respective NPVs, the result is the expanded NPVs: 8,047,864.50 reais in Goiatuba, 736,713.79 reais in Maracaju and -3,842,123.50 reais in Uberaba. Moreover, the inflection points of variables subject to risk considered in the study are defined for both the traditional projects\' evaluation and the evaluation from real options. The results indicate that the analysis of real options as a standard to reject projects tends to be more flexible regarding variables subject to risk when compared to the traditional evaluation of projects, admitting lower values of productivity, TRS amount and TRS price, and accepting higher land prices and costs with cutting, loading and transportation of sugarcane. Nevertheless, expanded NPVs indicate that the project in Goiatuba must not be rejected, continuing as an option of future investment; as for Maracaju, considering the deferred option in the project\'s evaluation was not enough, on its own, to revert the negative result of the traditional NPV; however, slight increases in risk variables intrinsic to the activity could make the expanded NPV higher than zero, enabling the project as a future investment option. Concerning Uberaba, the low value of the deferred option associated to the already reduced traditional NPV takes to the rejection of the project as a future investment option.

Uncertainty of outcome is widely recognised as a concern facing decision-makers and their advisors. In a number of spheres of policy, it appears uncertainty has intensified in the face of globalisation, economic instability, climate change, technological innovation and changing consumer preferences. How can planners and policymakers plan for an uncertain future? There is growing interest in, and use of, techniques that can help decision-making processes where deep uncertainty is involved. This paper is based upon one of the most recent international examples of a foresight exercise employed to examine uncertainty – specifically that which concerns uncertainty over the nature and extent of future demand for car travel. The principal focus of the paper is on the insights and guidance this examination of uncertainty brings forth for transport planning and policymaking. To accommodate deep uncertainty requires a flexible and open approach in terms of how policy and investment possibilities are formulated and judged. The paper argues for a focus upon the Triple Access System of spatial proximity, physical mobility and digital connectivity as a framework for policy and investment decisions that can harness flexibility and resilience. Uncertainty becomes an opportunity for decision-makers with the realisation that they are shaping the future rather than (only) responding to a predicted future. The paper outlines two forms of policymaking pathway: regime-compliant (in which adherence to trends and the nature of the world we have known pushes policy) and regime-testing (in which the nature of the world as we have known it is brought into question and vision pulls policy decisions). Stronger orientation towards regime-testing to assist in managing an uncertain future is advocated.

As distribuidoras de energia elétrica anualmente elaboram o Plano de Investimentos, que se constitui parte extremamente relevante do Plano de Negócios da Companhia, composto pelos investimentos a serem feitos nos próximos anos. Em função da conjuntura do sistema e dos estudos de planejamento, há sempre diversas propostas de investimento a serem cotejadas e, para selecionar os projetos a serem desenvolvidos, é necessária uma meticulosa análise econômica e financeira. Nesse tipo de análise, torna-se crucial ponderar as exigências do Órgão Regulador para o reconhecimento tarifário de um investimento, bem como as incertezas quanto à evolução da conjuntura sistêmica, aplicando técnicas da Engenharia Econômica para avaliar o retorno sobre o capital investido. A diferença principal deste trabalho, em relação à análise convencional de viabilidade de Projetos de Distribuição, decorre do fato de que se desenvolveu uma metodologia para avaliação de viabilidade e comparação entre si de alternativas de planos de expansão, ao invés da análise individualizada de projetos tradicional. Nesse contexto, a melhor decisão de investimento fica condicionada por variáveis exógenas ao tradicional processo de planejamento em si e, para viabilizar a inclusão das principais variáveis de comportamento aleatório, optou-se pela utilização de metodologia baseada em Opções Reais, que é uma técnica utilizada no mercado financeiro. Para melhor incorporar todas as nuances que condicionam o desempenho econômico-financeiro das alternativas em cotejo e aprimorar o processo de tomada de decisão, utiliza-se, também, técnicas de análise multi-objetivo para imputar os benefícios sociais na avaliação final, feita na etapa de tomada de decisão. / The electrical distribution companies annually prepare their Investment Plan, which is an important part of the company Business Plan, presenting the investments to be made for the coming years. There are several investment proposals, and to select the projects to be invested is necessary a precise economic and financial analysis considering the requirements of the tariff regulator for the recognition of an investment. The project feasibility analysis should to apply techniques of Economic Engineering to assess the rate of return of the invested capital. The main feature of this work, when compared to the feasibility conventional analysis of Distribution Projects, is that a new methodology was developed for feasibility assessment and comparison between alternative expansion plans, featuring important component of the investments contemplated in a Investment Plan. In this context, the best investment decisions is conditioned by additional variables besides that of the traditional planning process itself. In order to make an easier inclusion of the main variables presenting random behavior, it was used a methodology based on \"Real Options\", which is a technique used in the financial market. To better incorporate all the nuances that affect the financial performance of the alternatives under comparison, as well as to improve the decision making process, multi-objective analytical techniques was also used, aiming at to allocate welfare benefits in the decision-making final evaluation.