This dissertation consists of three essays. The first essay estimates a demand function for compressed natural gas as a fuel substitute to diesel fuel for firms with hybrid fleets. The data is from the Energy Information Administration, for the years 1989 to 2009, for 47 states. Results show that an increase of $0.10 in the price of diesel fuel will increase compressed natural gas demand by 5.59%. The second essay focuses on regional trade agreements (RTAs). A number of studies have found that RTAs significantly increase members' trade flows. While recent studies have begun to explore the reasons for this, none have examined whether the RTA trade effect varies systematically with the number and type of policy areas covered by the agreement. While the empirical trade literature has shed considerable light on the trade-creating ability of RTAs (Grant and Lambert, 2008), much less is known about why these agreements are so successful. In this study, we draw on a new database from the World Trade Organization of trade policy areas covered by RTAs to examine whether the degree of trade liberalization is an important determinant of the RTA trade effect. An augmented, theoretically consistent gravity equation is developed to explore the effects of RTAs on trade, conditional on the policy areas they include. In particular, we investigate two policy areas that are particularly important for agricultural trade, sanitary and phytosanitary measures (SPS) and technical barriers to trade (TBT). The results suggest that harmonization of non-tariff measures inside RTAs matters: Agreements that liberalize these policies increase members' agricultural trade by an additional 62 percent compared to agreements that do not. We conclude that studying the components of RTAs -- in particular, the policy areas covered by these agreements -- is important when analyzing the determinants of RTA trade effects. The third essay uses Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) to study the effect of membership in the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT), the predecessor to the World Trade Organization (WTO), and the WTO on trade flows. Existing GATT/WTO literature is not univocal as to whether membership in the GATT/WTO increases trade flows. In this study, Bayesian model averaging (BMA) is used in the presence of theoretical uncertainty to address whether membership in the GATT/WTO plays a role in the gravity model. Several datasets are examined: a dataset from a previous study; and two datasets compiled for this study, world trade and agricultural trade. Results show, for all three sets of data, that membership in the GATT/WTO does belong in the gravity equation and increases trade flows. / Ph. D.

No / This book explores economic developments across Europe in relation to its apparent segmentation, as disparities widen between core and periphery countries. In contrast to previous literature, the scope of analysis is extended to Europe as a continent rather than confining it solely to the European Union, thereby providing the reader with greater insight into the core/periphery nexus. The authors commence with a critical appraisal of economic thinking in relation to regional trade agreements and monetary integration. In relation to a number of EU economies, the book addresses issues of a liquidity trap, deflation, and twin deficits, together with the interconnection between exchange rates and current account balances. Importantly, they extend the discussion of segmentation through a series of focused case studies on Russia, Brexit and emergence of the mega-regionals.

O debate atual sobre as consequências da proliferação de Acordos Comerciais Regionais surge no meio de uma crise de governança no comércio internacional, o qual também questiona o papel da OMC como Organização Internacional que governa este cenário através de princípios e normas multilaterais. No entanto, cientes desta situação, os Estados parecem manter esforços para lidar com tais problemas através da negociação de mecanismos multilaterais para melhorar a governança do sistema multilateral. O Comitê de Acordos Comerciais Regionais (CRTA) que existe há mais de duas décadas é uma peça-chave para compreender as razões pelas quais tais esforços parecem infrutíferos, considerando o fato de que se trata do órgão multilateral encarregado do controle de Acordos Regionais. Assim, a presente pesquisa procura analisar o trabalho e evoluções desse Comitê, considerando diferentes fatores que incidem em seu desempenho, e determinar se um trabalho como o feito pelo CRTA poderia ser uma eficiente forma de governar as relações que surgem da atual organização da produção internacional. / The current debate about the consequences of the proliferation of Regional Trade Agreements arises in the middle of a governance crisis in international trade, which has also put into question the role of the WTO as an International Organization governing this scenario through multilateral principles and rules. However, aware of this situation, States seem to keep making efforts to deal with these problems through the negotiation of multilateral mechanisms to enhance the governance of the international trade system. The Committee on Regional Trade Agreements (CRTA), existing for more than two decades, is a key piece to understand why these efforts seem fruitless. This research attempts to analyze its work and evolutions, considering different factors that have incidence in its performance, and to determine if it is possible that a work such as the performed by the CRTA could be an efficient way to govern the relations arising from the current organization of international production.

The thesis concentrates on measuring the benefits and losses of implementing regional trade agreements. In particular, the thesis analyses trade flow changes, foreign direct investment inflow changes, industrial total factor productivity changes and specific commodity trade flow changes in Australia and China. Four empirical studies are undertaken. Firstly, the thesis introduces the gravity model to estimate the effect of regional trade agreements on trade flow changes, focusing on thirty-nine countries and areas from seven regional trade agreements during 1980-2004. The results show that there are trade creation and trade diversion effects for various memberships. The results further show that China experiences an export creation effect for its APEC membership while Australia has an import diversion effect for its CER membership. When trade between Australia and China is considered, Australia's CER membership impedes its trade with China. However, both Australia and China benefit from attending APEC jointly to enlarge their bilateral trade. Secondly, a modified gravity model is undertaken to test the impact of regional trade agreements on foreign direct investment inflows to Australia and China. It uses the same regional trade agreements to that of the trade flow study for the period of 1980 to 2004 for Australia and 1985 to 2004 for China. The results show that CER members tend to strengthen their bilateral foreign direct investment cooperation after the implementation of CER trade and investment liberalization. Thirdly, the impact of regional trade agreements is examined on industrial total factor productivity growth. The findings show that industries with comparative trading advantages in both Australia and China tend to improve their total factor productivity upon liberalizing trade both bilaterally and multilaterally. However, industries with comparative disadvantages need more protection against severe foreign competition. It uses data from 1974-75 to 2004-05 for the Australian market sector analysis, from 1968-69 to 1990-2000 for the Australian manufacturing industry analysis, and from 1987 to 2003 for the Chinese industry analysis. Finally, the thesis investigates the impact of regional trade agreements on bilateral commodity trade between Australia and China from 1979 to 2004. A similar gravity model to that of the trade flow study is used, introducing an additional GDP per capita variable to capture the effect of increasing consumers' income on their consumption of particular goods and products type based on product and production characteristics. Both the one-digit and some detailed four-digit commodity classifications described in the Standard International Trade Classification are considered. The results show that participation in regional trade agreements is an important factor that affects Australia's major commodity trade with China. The major contribution of this thesis is the investigation of issues on trade flows and foreign direct investment specifically in Australia and China, together with the studies of the effect of regional trade agreements on industrial total factor productivity improvement and specific commodity trade changes. Due to the increasing pursuit of bilateral and regional economic cooperation in Australia and China, the results of this thesis are of particular importance to both countries in their foreign trade and economic strategies.

Doctor Legum - LLD / Competition law and its enforcement have become necessary tools in the face of trade liberalisation. Nowhere is this more evident than in the area of cross-border cartels. The global South is steadily becoming aware of this. With the advent of globalisation and trade liberalisation, individual economies have become intrinsically linked. Anti-competitive conduct in one territory may have an impact in another territory. Therefore, an effective regional competition law framework complements trade liberalisation, especially in light of the principal objective of the South-South regional economic communities: the deepening of regional integration, in order to realise economic development and alleviate poverty. Cartel practices, such as, market allocation cartels, are in direct contradiction to this primary objective. This is when enforcement collaborations in South-South regional economic communities becomes crucial. The regional legal instruments of the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa, the East African Community, the Southern African Customs Union and the Southern African Development Community make provision for enforcement collaborations among Member States. To facilitate collaboration, regional competition authorities have been created to investigate, among other things, cross-border cartels. Within these economic communities, there is a strong case for enforcement collaborations, as evidence shows that the majority of the firms engaging in cartels are the so-called Regional Multinational Corporations. They operate throughout the territories of Member States. Additionally, the international nature of cartels, such as, private international cartels and export cartels, provide an opportunity for South-South co-operation to be utilised. However, this co-operation has not been utilised to the fullest extent, especially with reference to cross-border cartel activities. This has been attributed to various factors, such as, institutional incapacities, resource austerity, the absence of common procedural rules, the lack of adequate investigatory tools, and political ineptitude. As a solution, this current study makes specific recommendations that are directed at enhancing the effectiveness of South-South collaborations pertaining to cross-border cartel activities.

Cette thèse a pour but d'analyser l'impact de la création de l'Union économique et monétaire Ouest africaine (UEMOA), un exemple d'accord commercial régional (ACR) sur la dynamique du commerce et du développement au sein de cet espace. Elle analyse le processus de convergence réelle et examine les possibilités de renforcement du processus d'intégration économique. Le premier chapitre s'intéresse à l'impact du processus d'intégration sur la réduction des disparités de revenu par tête entre les pays membres. Mesuré par l'écart-type du PIB par tête à prix constant de 2005, les analyses ont révélé que les pays de l'UEMOA font l'expérience d'une convergence réelle entre 1970 et 2010. Cependant, selon nos analyses, la création de l'UEMOA n'a pas amélioré significativement les conditions de vie dans les pays membres. L'idée qui est exprimée dans ce premier chapitre est qu'un ACR qui réunit des partenaires plus ou moins égaux et vise non pas seulement à promouvoir le commerce intrinsèque, mais aussi et surtout l'intégration et le développement, peut être un complément utile pour le multilatéralisme en ce sens qu'il permet d'en corriger les inefficiences et à amortir ses chocs. Par contre, certains ACR peuvent constituer de graves menaces pour le système commercial multilatéral à partir du moment où ils génèrent des déséquilibres et renforcent les inégalités entre ceux qui les signent. C'est le cas de nombreux ACR impliquant des pays en développement et des pays développés. Le deuxième chapitre s'intéresse à un tel exemple d'ACR et propose une stratégie pour réduire les effets négatifs et permettre aux pays en développement de bénéficier des avantages du libre-échange. L'analyse est faite sur les implications macroéconomiques des Accords de partenariat économique (APE) entre les pays e l'Union européenne et ceux de l'Afrique des Caraïbes et du Pacifique (ACP). Nous montrons, à partir des données de la Côte d'Ivoire, qu'avec des dépenses publiques productives, les pays en développement peuvent réduire les effets négatifs de court terme des APE. Les économies en développement sont si petites et trop faibles face à la concurrence étrangère qu'elles mettent en place des politiques protectionnistes comme l'instauration d'un droit de douane sur les importations. C'est l'exemple du tarif extérieur commun imposé par l'UEMOA sur les importations en provenance d'un pays tiers. Le chapitre trois de cette thèse propose un modèle DGSE simple permettant d'analyser les impacts macroéconomiques de cette modification de la structure tarifaire. Il ressort que l'effet net d'un droit de douane est la réduction des principales composantes de la demande domestique et une baisse d'utilité des consommateurs. L'analyse montre que la dynamique de moyen et long terme ainsi que la réaction instantanée de ces composantes dépendent de l'élasticité de substitution entre les variétés des biens importés. / This thesis aims to analyze the impact of the creation of the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU), a regional trade agreements (RTAs) example on the dynamics of trade and development in this area. It analyzes the process of real convergence and examines opportunities to strengthen the integration process. The first chapter focuses on the impact of integration on reducing disparities in per capita income between member countries. Measured by the standard deviation of per capita GDP at constant prices of 2005, these analyzes revealed that the WAEMU countries are experiencing a real convergence between 1970 and 2010. However, according to our analysis, the creation of teh WAEMU has not significantly improved living conditions in memeber countries. The idea expressed in the first chapter is a regional trade agreements (RTAs) which brings together more or less equal partners and aims not only to promote trade themselves, but also and especially the integration and developemnt, may be a useful adjunct for multilateralism in the sense that it allows to correct inefficiencies and absorb its impact. On the other side, some RTAs can pose serious threats to the multilateral trading system from the moment they generate imbalances and reinforce inequalities between those who sign them. This is the case of many RTAs involving developing and developed countries. The second chapter focuses on one example of this type of RTAs and proposes a strategy to reduce the negative effects and to enable developing countries to reap the benefits of free trade. The analysis is done on the macroeconomic implications of economic partnership agreements(EPAs) between the countries of the European Union and those of the African Caribbean and Pacific. We show, using data from Côte d'Ivoire that, with productive public spending, developing countries can reudce the negative effects of short-term EPA. Developing countries are so small and too weak to cope with foreign competition that they implement protectionist policies such as the introduction of a tariff on imports. This is the case of the common external tariff imposed by the WAEMU imports from third countries. Chapter three of this tesis proposes a simple DGSE model, to assess macroeconomic impacts of this change in tariff structure. It appears that the net effect of a tariff reduction is the decrease of the main components of domestic demand and a lower level of consumer utility. The analysis shows that the dynamics of medium and long term as well as the instantaneous reaction of theses components depend on the elasticity of substitution between varieties of imported goods.

Paralelamente aos esforços dos países, sob a liderança norte-americana, para a construção de um sistema multilateral de comércio mais livre e mais integrado, o pós-guerra assistiu a esforços regionalistas sob a forma de Acordos Regionais de Comércio (ARCs). Impulsionados pela experiência européia, países na América Latina e na África engajaram-se na formação de ARCs nas décadas de 1960 e 1970, sem grande sucesso, marcando o primeiro momento regionalista. A ordem internacional após Guerra Fria foi marcada pelo reavivamento do regionalismo com a celebração de novos ARCs e o relançamento de antigos acordos, marcando o segundo momento. A formação de ARCs, especialmente a explosão de acordos desde a inauguração da OMC, tem suscitado discussões entre o multilateralismo e o regionalismo, se seriam complementares ou contraditórios. A percepção da importância que assumiram os ARCs na teoria econômica e nas relações econômicas internacionais desperta o interesse sobre os motivos que levam os países a formarem esses acordos e a despenderem tanto tempo e esforço em sua formação. De acordo com a análise tradicional, os países buscam os ARCs como forma de aumentar as trocas comerciais e os investimentos entre os países membros por meio da redução de barreiras alfandegárias. Embora estejam presentes nos ARCs e sejam importantes nos cálculos dos países na formação desse acordo, os motivos tradicionais não conferem um explicação completa, especialmente quando se considera novo regionalismo, marcado por grandes avanços nas liberalizações multilateral e unilateral. O fato é que os países não buscam a integração apenas por suas razões econômicas intrínsecas, configuradas nos ganhos tradicionais, os ganhos expressos em seus acordos. Além dos ganhos comerciais, muitas vezes, mais importantes que os ganhos econômicos, os países têm outros objetivos quando aderem a arranjos regionais. Em busca de uma teoria mais completa para explicar a formação de ARCs, este trabalho se apoiará em quatro ganhos não-tradicionais: acesso seguro a mercados, segurança, suporte para reformas domésticas e incremento do poder de barganha. / Alongside with the countries efforts, under the leadership of United States, to the construction of a freer and more integrated multilateral trade system, the post-war period witnessed the regionalist efforts in the form of Regional Trade Agreements (RTAs). Stimulated by the European experience, countries in Latin America and Africa engaged themselves into the formation of RTAs in the 1960\'s and 1970\'s, without much success, determining the first regionalist period. The international order after the Cold War was marked by the revival of regionalism with the signing of new RTAs and the relaunch of old ones, determining the second period. The formation of RTAs, especially the explosion of new agreements since the inauguration of the WTO, has created discussions between multilateralism and regionalism, if they are complementary or contradictory. The perception of the importance assumed by the RTAs in economic theory and in the international economic relations arouses the interest about the reasons that lead countries to form such agreements and spend both time and efforts into their formation. According to the traditional analysis, countries seek RTAs as a way to increase trade and investment among member countries by reducing customs barriers. Despite being present in RTAs and despite being important in the countries calculation during agreements formation, the traditional motives don\'t grant a complete explanation, especially when considering the new regionalism, marked by great progress in the multilateral and unilateral liberalization. The fact is that countries do not seek integration only by its intrinsic economic reasons, configured in the traditional gains, gains that are expressed in their agreements. In addition to trade gains, often, more important than the economic gains, countries have other goals when they join regional arrangements. Searching for a more complete theory to explain the formation of RTAs, this work will be supported by four nontraditional gains: safe markets access, security, support for domestic reforms and increased bargain power.

Climate change is the most obvious and pressing impairment of the biological, physical, and chemical systems. To help mitigate this unprecedented problem, I present heads of state, policymakers, and members of civil society with a set of new provisions that they can include in their trade agreements to drive emissions reduction from countries inside and outside of their trade agreements, maintain their ability to compete in an increasingly globalized world, and comply with international trading rules. Ultimately, I seek to demonstrate the untapped potential for leveraging trade agreements to reduce emissions in the midst of an international system that lacks concerted climate action. In light of humanity’s inadequate efforts to address the immense threats posed by a changing climate, decentralized efforts, such as these, are increasingly essential to reduce emissions.

O comércio internacional de serviços é cada dia mais importante para as economias nacionais e para o comércio global. Por esse motivo, a liberalização comercial do setor de serviços tem sido objeto da maioria dos acordos regionais de comércio celebrados a partir de 1990. As normas sobre serviços estabelecidas por esses acordos coexistem com as normas do GATS, criadas no âmbito da OMC. Não obstante, o Brasil e o Mercosul celebraram pouquíssimos acordos regionais de comércio, apenas no eixo Sul/Sul. Dentre esses acordos, o único que contém normas e procedimentos concretos para a liberalização do comércio de serviços é o ACE Nº 35, entre Mercosul e Chile. Assim, verifica-se que o Mercosul não possui um modelo claro de normas para a abertura do setor de serviços. Não há diretrizes de política externa comum a respeito do tema, a despeito da relevância econômica desse setor para o Brasil e para os demais Estados-membros do bloco. Por sua vez, os principais players do comércio internacional - Estados Unidos, Índia, China e União Europeia - estão inseridos em redes de preferências comerciais envolvendo bens e serviços, que foram construídas ao longo das últimas décadas. Os acordos regionais celebrados por esses players são um importante parâmetro para um modelo de acordo regional em serviços a ser desenvolvido para o Mercosul. Para que o Brasil e o Mercosul não corram fiquem alijados desse processo de integração econômica, é necessário que se engajem no em negociação de preferências comerciais no setor de serviços com players importantes do comércio internacional. Para tanto, devem desenvolver um modelo próprio de regras para a abertura comercial do setor de serviços em acordos regionais de comércio, de forma a estarem mais capacitados para negociar esses acordos. / International trade in services is becoming more important for national economies and for the global commerce. Therefore, rules for the liberalization of the services sector are included in most of the regional trade agreements executed as of 1990. The rules established by these agreements coexist with the WTO rules established by the GATS. Nevertheless, Brazil and Mercosur have signed very few regional trade agreements, which are exclusively South/South agreements. Among these agreements, the only one that contains specific rules and proceedings for the liberalization of the services sector is ACE N ° 35, between Mercosur and Chile. Thus, Mercosur does not have established a pattern concerning regional trade agreement rules in the services sector. There are no common foreign policy guidelines on the subject, despite the economic importance of this sector for Brazil and for the other Member States. The major international trade players - United States, India, China and the European Union have built trade preferences networks involving goods and services over the past decades. Regional trade agreements concluded by those players are an important parameter for a pattern of regional trade agreement rules related to services to be developed by the Mercosur. In order to avoid that Brazil and Mercosur are excluded from this economic integration process, it is necessary to engage in the negotiation of trade preferences in the service sector with major international trade players. Mercosur should develop its own set of rules for the liberalization of the service sector in regional trade agreements as to become more prepared to negotiate such agreements.

Dans un contexte où les négociations commerciales multilatérales languissent dans une impasse, les accords commerciaux régionaux ACR prennent de l’élan. Cette thèse doctorale cherche à faire avancer la connaissance sur ce domaine. C’est grâce au modèle de gravité du commerce que trois chapitres supportés par des analyses économétriques appliqués ont été mis au point.Le premier chapitre examine les effets sur les flux bilatéraux de commerce attribuables aux ACR, le système généralisé de préférences (SGP) et l’appartenance à l’Organisation mondiale du commerce OMC. Plusieurs spécifications économétriques et techniques d’estimation ont été testées. Particulièrement Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood (PPML), qui se présente comme la technique la plus recommandée pour contenir des biais bien connues et des problèmes d’endogénéité. Cette recherche a été conduite avec un modèle de gravité du commerce international qui comporte 153 pays sur la période 1980-2012. Les résultats montrent systématiquement qu’un effet positif et significatif sur les flux bilatéraux de commerce est à attendre après l’entrée en vigueur d’un ACR. De même, des effets positifs mais peu importants, voir nuls sont accordés à la participation au sein de l’OMC. La spécification qui utilise PPML et qui contrôle l’influence de l’hétérogénéité inobservable montre un effet non-significatif pour le SGP. Le deuxième chapitre, coécrit avec mon directeur de thèse Jean-Marc Siroën, explore quel est l’effet de l’hétérogénéité des ACR sur le cadre de l’approfondissement de l’intégration. Nous envisageons pouvoir déceler si les ACR qui sont plus profonds contribuent plus à la création de commerce que ceux qui sont moins profonds. Nous avons recours à deux bases de données récemment ouverts au public. La première appartenant à l’OMC et la deuxième a la World Trade Institute (WTI-DESTA). Nous procédons à créer des indicateurs crédibles de l’approfondissement de l’intégration pour passer à les tester dans un modèle de gravité. Nous trouvons qu’un effet positif et significatif peut-être accordé aux accords les plus profonds, indépendamment que l’indicateur testé soit un indicateur additive où un indicateur obtenu par l’Analyse de correspondance multiple (ACM). De même cet effet est constaté pas seulement dans les accords qui comportent des clauses classiquement négociées sur le cadre de l’OMC, mais aussi dans les accords qui dépassent cette dimension. Le troisième chapitre se consacre à étudier l’existence des potentiels de commerce entre la Colombie et l’Union Européenne. Des prédictions dans l’échantillon après des estimations avec PPML et effets fixes qui varient dans le temps nous indiquent que des potentiels de commerce existent avec l’Autriche, la République Tchèque, la Finlande, la France, l’Allemagne, la Hongrie, la Suède et la Pologne. Dans le sens inverse la Suède, l’Irlande, la Finlande et Pologne détiennent une marge importante à gagner dans le marché colombien. Des tests de sensibilité ont été effectués pour garantir la robustesse de ces résultats. / Regional trade agreements (RTAs) have surged in a context of stalled multilateral trade negotiations. This doctoral thesis intends to advance scientific knowledge in the field. Thus, thanks to a gravity model theoretical framework, three chapters of applied empirical econometrics analysis have been completed. The first chapter examines the effects of RTAs, the Generalized System of Preference (GSP) and World Trade Organization memberships on bilateral trade flows. I put into practice different econometric specifications and estimation methods, notably Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood (PPML), which is the one that better seems to contend with well-known biases and endogeneity problems. I conduct this research with an international trade gravity model estimated across 153 countries from the year 1980 to 2012.I consistently found a strong positive impact of regional trade agreement RTAs on most specifications and low or non-significant results for WTO membership. The estimates from the PPML method that includes controls for unobserved heterogeneity show non-significant effects of the Generalized System of Preference (GSP) on trade.The second chapter, co-authored with my supervisor Jean-Marc Siroën, explores the effect of heterogeneity of RTAs in the scope of deep integration. We intend to determine if deeper RTAs promote trade more effectively than less ambitious agreements. We make use of two recently available data sets from the World Trade Organization (WTO) and the World Trade Institute (WTI-DESTA) to generate credible indicators of deep integration. Additive and Multiple Correspondence Analysis derived indicators for the depth of the agreements are then computed and their significance is tested in a gravity model. We find that deeper agreements increase trade more than shallow ones, whereas the provisions they included are within or outside of the WTO domain.The third chapter investigates the existence of trade potentials between Colombia and the EU. I obtain in-sample predictions after the estimation of a gravity model with the Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood estimator. I control for unobserved omitted variable bias by the inclusion of exporter and importer time varying fixed effects, and run a series of sensitivity analysis.Untapped trade potentials are found between Colombia and a group of EU countries in both directions of the trade flows. Exports from Colombia have a gap to bridge with Austria, Czech Republic, Finland, France, Germany, Hungary, Poland and Sweden. In the other direction, Sweden, Ireland, Finland and Poland have an interesting margin to gain in the Colombian market.