L’intérêt pour la politique industrielle a fait un retour remarqué dans le contexte post consensus de Washington. Mais ce regain d’intérêt de la littérature survient dans un environnement international qui pose des défis majeurs pour la conduite de politiques industrielles. En effet, le mode dominant d'insertion dans l'économie mondiale au cours des trois dernières décennies a été celui de la libéralisation des comptes courants et de capitaux, réduisant les marges de manœuvre des gouvernements pour le choix et la conduite de politiques industrielles aussi bien de facto que de jure. La thèse procède à une évaluation qualitative et comparative des contraintes sur l’utilisation des instruments de la politique industrielle sur 36 Accords Commerciaux Régionaux de types Nord-Sud et Sud-Sud : 10 accords avec les États-Unis, 12 avec l’Union Européenne, 6 avec la Chine et 8 avec l’Inde. La thèse cartographie les engagements de ces accords qui influent sur les instruments de la politique industrielle dans trois domaines interdépendants : la régulation des investissements étrangers, les règles sur les brevets, et les règles relatives à la normalisation. Les résultats de cette étude établissent que les accords de type Nord-Sud dépassent systématiquement des engagements des accords de l’OMC, donc rétrécissent voire éliminent leurs flexibilités. En conséquence, l'espace de politique industrielle de jure des pays partenaires se rétrécit à un niveau historiquement bas. Alternativement, les modes de régulation de type Sud-Sud préservent, dans une large mesure, les flexibilités de l'OMC comme résultat de (i) l’affirmation explicite de ces flexibilités ; (ii) la non-inclusion des engagements substantiels allant au-delà des accords de l’OMC. Contrairement aux accords des États-Unis et de l’Union Européenne, la possibilité de jure d’utiliser les mesures de la politique industrielle est donc largement préservée dans le cadre des accords avec la Chine et l’Inde en ce qui concerne : (i) les mesures relatives à la régulation des investissements étrangers qui garantissent leur contribution au développement industriel, tout en évitant les risques associés à ce type d'investissement ; (ii) la mise en place d'un système national de brevet facilitant l’accès à et la diffusion des technologies et des connaissances ; (iii) l’utilisation des normes et des règlements techniques comme instruments pour surmonter les problèmes de coordination inefficiente des investissements, ainsi que comme mécanisme de contrôle accompagnant les différents soutiens apportés par l’État à la production locale. / Lately, interests in industrial policy have made a remarkable comeback in an international environment that holds serious challenges as the integration into the wold economy that took the form of trade, investment, and financial liberalization, in last three decades, has reduced de facto and de jure industrial policy space.The thesis provides a qualitative and a comparative assessment of constraints on the use of industrial policy instruments in the context of the rising regionalism. It reviews 36 North-South and South-South regional trade agreements: 10 Agreements of the United States, 12 Agreements of European Union, 6 Chinese Agreements and 8 Indian Agreements, all with developing countries. It maps commitments that affect industrial policy instruments in three interrelated areas: foreign investment regulation, patent, and standardization. It compares the agreements’ engagements against WTO obligations and each other.Results show that North-South modes of regulation of investment and trade relations go systematically beyond WTO Agreements commitments, narrowing and eliminating its “flexibilities”. As a result, de jure industrial policy space of partner countries shrinks to a historically low level. In turn, the South-South modes of regulation of trade and investment relations preserve WTO “flexibilities” to a large extent, as result of (i) explicit affirmation of these flexibilities, and (ii) the non-inclusion of substantial commitments going beyond WTO agreements.Contrary to the agreements of the United States and the European Union, the de jure possibility to use industrial policy instruments is substantially preserved under the agreements of China and India with respect to: (i) measures aimed at regulating foreign investments in a manner that permits to trigger its industrial development benefits and to avoid its associated risks, (ii) the design of national patent system in manner that facilitates the access to and diffusion of technologies and knowledge, and (iii) the use of standards and technical regulations as instruments to overcome investment coordination failure, and as tools of control mechanism that should be associated with the State’s distributed rent to local producers.

Paralelamente aos esforços dos países, sob a liderança norte-americana, para a construção de um sistema multilateral de comércio mais livre e mais integrado, o pós-guerra assistiu a esforços regionalistas sob a forma de Acordos Regionais de Comércio (ARCs). Impulsionados pela experiência européia, países na América Latina e na África engajaram-se na formação de ARCs nas décadas de 1960 e 1970, sem grande sucesso, marcando o primeiro momento regionalista. A ordem internacional após Guerra Fria foi marcada pelo reavivamento do regionalismo com a celebração de novos ARCs e o relançamento de antigos acordos, marcando o segundo momento. A formação de ARCs, especialmente a explosão de acordos desde a inauguração da OMC, tem suscitado discussões entre o multilateralismo e o regionalismo, se seriam complementares ou contraditórios. A percepção da importância que assumiram os ARCs na teoria econômica e nas relações econômicas internacionais desperta o interesse sobre os motivos que levam os países a formarem esses acordos e a despenderem tanto tempo e esforço em sua formação. De acordo com a análise tradicional, os países buscam os ARCs como forma de aumentar as trocas comerciais e os investimentos entre os países membros por meio da redução de barreiras alfandegárias. Embora estejam presentes nos ARCs e sejam importantes nos cálculos dos países na formação desse acordo, os motivos tradicionais não conferem um explicação completa, especialmente quando se considera novo regionalismo, marcado por grandes avanços nas liberalizações multilateral e unilateral. O fato é que os países não buscam a integração apenas por suas razões econômicas intrínsecas, configuradas nos ganhos tradicionais, os ganhos expressos em seus acordos. Além dos ganhos comerciais, muitas vezes, mais importantes que os ganhos econômicos, os países têm outros objetivos quando aderem a arranjos regionais. Em busca de uma teoria mais completa para explicar a formação de ARCs, este trabalho se apoiará em quatro ganhos não-tradicionais: acesso seguro a mercados, segurança, suporte para reformas domésticas e incremento do poder de barganha. / Alongside with the countries efforts, under the leadership of United States, to the construction of a freer and more integrated multilateral trade system, the post-war period witnessed the regionalist efforts in the form of Regional Trade Agreements (RTAs). Stimulated by the European experience, countries in Latin America and Africa engaged themselves into the formation of RTAs in the 1960\'s and 1970\'s, without much success, determining the first regionalist period. The international order after the Cold War was marked by the revival of regionalism with the signing of new RTAs and the relaunch of old ones, determining the second period. The formation of RTAs, especially the explosion of new agreements since the inauguration of the WTO, has created discussions between multilateralism and regionalism, if they are complementary or contradictory. The perception of the importance assumed by the RTAs in economic theory and in the international economic relations arouses the interest about the reasons that lead countries to form such agreements and spend both time and efforts into their formation. According to the traditional analysis, countries seek RTAs as a way to increase trade and investment among member countries by reducing customs barriers. Despite being present in RTAs and despite being important in the countries calculation during agreements formation, the traditional motives don\'t grant a complete explanation, especially when considering the new regionalism, marked by great progress in the multilateral and unilateral liberalization. The fact is that countries do not seek integration only by its intrinsic economic reasons, configured in the traditional gains, gains that are expressed in their agreements. In addition to trade gains, often, more important than the economic gains, countries have other goals when they join regional arrangements. Searching for a more complete theory to explain the formation of RTAs, this work will be supported by four nontraditional gains: safe markets access, security, support for domestic reforms and increased bargain power.

Magister Philosophiae - MPhil

Cette thèse s’inscrit dans le contexte de prolifération des accords commerciaux régionaux (ACR) et traite des effets des ACR sur le commerce international. Nous visons à mieux comprendre et à apporter des points de vue nouveaux sur le rôle des ACR et du régionalisme en général en tant qu’élément important de la politique commerciale international aujourd’hui. Dans le premier chapitre, nous revisitons les effets ex post des ACR sur le commerce des pays membres et le commerce extrabloc en adoptant une approche empirique. Nous cherchons à déterminer la manière dont les blocs commerciaux régionaux affectent le commerce non seulement entre pays membres mais aussi entre pays membres et pays extérieurs à l’accord. Notre analyse confirme que les ACR augmentent de manière significative le commerce intra-bloc ; néanmoins, dans de nombreux cas, les ACR impliquent des effets de détournement d’échanges qui sont préjudiciables au reste du monde. Le chapitre deux examine de quelle manière la période de mise en œuvre de l’accord et les niveaux de développement des pays membres déterminent, en dynamique, l’effet des ACR sur le commerce international. Nous obtenons des tendances distinctes des effets ex post de l’ACR sur le commerce entre les accords Nord-Nord, Sud-Sud et Nord-Sud. Nous vérifions empiriquement que les ACR conclus par des partenaires commerciaux ayant un statut de développement économique analogue (les accords Nord-Nord ou Sud-Sud) sont susceptibles d’engendrer une augmentation plus forte du commerce des membres pendant une période de mise en œuvre plus courte. Le chapitre trois porte sur la manière dont les interactions entre ACR et développement financier influencent les flux d'échanges entre partenaires commerciaux. Dans ce travail conjoint avec Anne-Gaël Vaubourg, nous montrons que le développement financier (particulièrement sous sa forme intermédiée) encourage les échanges commerciaux mais que cet effet est atténué dès lors que les partenaires commerciaux ont signé un ACR. / The subject of this dissertation focuses on the analysis of different aspects of the relationship between regional trade agreements (RTAs) and the multilateral trading system. We aim to provide a fresh understanding and views of the role of RTAs and regionalism in general as an important feature of international trade policy today. In chapter one we revisit the ex post effects of RTAs on member countries’ trade and extrabloc trade by adopting an empirical approach. We explore how regional trading blocs have influenced trade among members as well as trade with nonmembers. Our analysis confirms the widespread trade-enhancing effects of RTAs on member countries’ trade; however, in many cases, they lead to trade diversion effects that are detrimental to the rest of the world. Chapter two takes a closer look at how the implementation period of trade liberalization and partners’ levels of development affect the RTA dynamic effects on trade over time. We obtain distinct patterns of ex post RTA effects on trade across North-North RTAs, South-South RTAs and North-South RTAs. We empirically validate that RTAs formed by trading partners experiencing similar economic development status (North-North RTAs or South-South RTAs) are likely to lead to a larger increase in members’ trade during a shorter implementation period. Chapter three studies the mechanism through which RTAs impact the effect of financial development on trade flows between exporting and importing countries. In this joint work with Anne-Gaël Vaubourg, we show that the trade-enhancing role of financial development in the exporting country—especially through intermediated finance—is mitigated when there is an RTA between this country and its trading partner.

Magister Legum - LLM

Though the strategic importance of regional economic integration to multinational companies (MNC) has been researched extensively internationally, this concept has not been studied in South Africa. In fact, there is a growing nostalgia that with the South African Development Community (SADC) moving towards its set macroeconomic convergence targets; regional economic integration eventually leads to macroeconomic stabilisation. This ultimately becomes the root of growth in a region that has been severely affected by globalisation, financial crises, increasing government debt and budget deficit problems. This study, hence, tries to find out how the critical decisions of South African MNCs are made when operating within regional markets. Consequently, statistical econometric models were developed to test time-series data from 1980-2011 using the best (most efficient) linear unbiased estimator (BLUE) ordinary least square regression technique. An analysis was then done to investigate how South African firms have been able to gain maximum benefits by adopting the SADC as its major trading bloc in Africa. The study’s findings showed that the major barriers that impede MNCs of South African origin from penetrating these markets were custom duties, direct and indirect tariffs. It was observed that this would only be reduced by regional integration. Determined to critically interrogate the problems detailed in this research, three hypotheses were tested, analysed and subsequent interpretation of the findings revealed that South African MNCs contribute positively to regional economic growth and investment in the SADC. Furthermore, the study found out that although these factors were important, they were not the only variables that stimulated the competitiveness of South African MNCs in the SADC region. The literature review sections of this study found that the adoption of strategic management initiatives by MNCs improved the operation of transnational companies in South Africa. A comparison between the value of South African MNCs, as well as, other explanatory variables, and the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of both South Africa and the SADC using time series data for the period 1980-2011 indicated that there was a positive relationship between the contribution of MNCs to South Africa’s economy and the GDP of both South Africa and the SADC. This proved that there is a significant link between MNC growth and national/regional productivity. In conclusion, the study established that the findings of the literature review were theoretically in sync with the empirical analysis. Also, the outcome of this study concurred with the findings of similar research. In essence, regional trade arrangements are an increasingly important element of the global trade environment, of which the move by South Africa’s MNCs to operate in the SADC market was a positive one. Finally, the study found out that for these firms to be successful in the international business arena, business management decisions need to be made, only after a detailed strategic analysis of the significance of regional economic integration is considered. This integrative framework certainly determines the operational efficiency, survival and profitability of most MNCs that operate within the region. / Business Management / M.Admin. (Business Management (International Business))

Cette thèse a pour objet d'examiner cinq aspects de la relation entre le commerce Sud-Sud et la « nouvelle » géographie du commerce international en portant une attention toute particulière aux liens qui existent entre les BRICs (Brésil, Russie, Inde, Chine) et l'Afrique sub-Saharienne (ASS) puis entre la Chine et l'ASS. La première partie s'attache à démontrer certaines caractéristiques relatives à la mutation des relations commerciales Sud-Sud. Dans le premier chapitre, l'hétérogénéité au sein même des BRICs est confirmée à partir d'un certain nombre de facteurs explicatifs des flux commerciaux bilatéraux avec l'ASS. Dans le second chapitre, les flux commerciaux Sud-Sud semble jouer un rôle déterminant dans la diversification géographique du commerce intra-Africain en termes de nouveaux partenaires commerciaux. Dans le troisième chapitre, l'idée d'une réorientation du commerce des ex-colonies depuis l'indépendance vers la Chine au détriment des anciennes puissances coloniales a été validée empiriquement. Quant à la deuxième partie, elle s'intéresse aux liens entre la politique économique extérieure et le commerce Sud-Sud. Les résultats du quatrième chapitre soulignent l'impact significatif de la « politique de la Chine unique » sur les flux commerciaux chinois et taiwanais par le biais de la diplomatie économique. Les estimations du cinquième chapitre confirment l'hétérogénéité des effets moyens et dans le temps des accords régionaux africains sur les échanges commerciaux selon la nature des partenaires, la forme des accords commerciaux ainsi que leur chevauchement. / This thesis emphasises five aspects of relations between South-South trade and « new » geography of international trade. We particularly pay attention to the links between BRICs (Brazil, Russia, India, China) and sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) but also between China and SSA. The first part attempts to demonstrate some characteristics concerning the mutation of South-South trade relations. In the Chapter 1, the heterogeneity of BRICs is confirmed from some factors of bilateral trade flows with SSA. In the Chapter 2, the South-South trade flows play a significant role in the geographic diversification of intra-African trade in terms of new trading partners. In the Chapter 3, the assumption of a trade reorientation of ex-colonies since independence with China at the expense of former colonial powers has been empirically validated. The second part studies the linkages between the foreign economic policy and South-South trade. The findings of the Chapter 4 highlight the significant impact of the « One China policy » on Chinese and Taiwanese trade flows through the economic diplomacy. The estimates of the Chapter 5 confirm the heterogeneous average effects but also over time of the African trade agreements on trade according to the nature of trading partners, the kinds of trade agreements and their overlapping.

Though the strategic importance of regional economic integration to multinational companies (MNC) has been researched extensively internationally, this concept has not been studied in South Africa. In fact, there is a growing nostalgia that with the South African Development Community (SADC) moving towards its set macroeconomic convergence targets; regional economic integration eventually leads to macroeconomic stabilisation. This ultimately becomes the root of growth in a region that has been severely affected by globalisation, financial crises, increasing government debt and budget deficit problems. This study, hence, tries to find out how the critical decisions of South African MNCs are made when operating within regional markets. Consequently, statistical econometric models were developed to test time-series data from 1980-2011 using the best (most efficient) linear unbiased estimator (BLUE) ordinary least square regression technique. An analysis was then done to investigate how South African firms have been able to gain maximum benefits by adopting the SADC as its major trading bloc in Africa. The study’s findings showed that the major barriers that impede MNCs of South African origin from penetrating these markets were custom duties, direct and indirect tariffs. It was observed that this would only be reduced by regional integration. Determined to critically interrogate the problems detailed in this research, three hypotheses were tested, analysed and subsequent interpretation of the findings revealed that South African MNCs contribute positively to regional economic growth and investment in the SADC. Furthermore, the study found out that although these factors were important, they were not the only variables that stimulated the competitiveness of South African MNCs in the SADC region. The literature review sections of this study found that the adoption of strategic management initiatives by MNCs improved the operation of transnational companies in South Africa. A comparison between the value of South African MNCs, as well as, other explanatory variables, and the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of both South Africa and the SADC using time series data for the period 1980-2011 indicated that there was a positive relationship between the contribution of MNCs to South Africa’s economy and the GDP of both South Africa and the SADC. This proved that there is a significant link between MNC growth and national/regional productivity. In conclusion, the study established that the findings of the literature review were theoretically in sync with the empirical analysis. Also, the outcome of this study concurred with the findings of similar research. In essence, regional trade arrangements are an increasingly important element of the global trade environment, of which the move by South Africa’s MNCs to operate in the SADC market was a positive one. Finally, the study found out that for these firms to be successful in the international business arena, business management decisions need to be made, only after a detailed strategic analysis of the significance of regional economic integration is considered. This integrative framework certainly determines the operational efficiency, survival and profitability of most MNCs that operate within the region. / Business Management / M. Admin. (Business Management (International Business))

Dans cette thèse, nous étudions l'effet de la répartition inégale des ressources naturelles entre les pays sur trois aspects principaux. Dans le premier chapitre, nous examinons empiriquement les effets asymétriques potentiels de l'adhésion à l'Organisation Mondiale du Commerce (OMC) entre les membres, en nous concentrant spécifiquement sur les pays en développement. Les résultats suggèrent que l'adhésion à l'OMC a contribué à l'augmentation des exportations de tous les pays, à l'exception des pays non-émergents riches en ressources. En revanche, les pays émergents riches en ressources sont les plus grands bénéficiaires de l'accession à l'OMC. Dans le deuxième chapitre, nous explorons empiriquement l'impact de la dotation en ressources naturelles sur les gains de six Accords Commerciaux Régionaux (ACR) entre les membres à travers trois axes : la complémentarité entre les pays, la diversification des pays riches en ressources ainsi que la création et le détournement des échanges. Nous concluons que la complémentarité entre les pays riches et les pays pauvres en ressources a été atteinte dans les accords de l’ECOWAS, du SADC et du CIS. Les résultats indiquent également que, dans tous les ACR, les pays riches en ressources ont accru leurs exportations hors secteurs des ressources naturelles et diversifié ainsi leurs structures d'exportation, en particulier avec les partenaires régionaux. En outre, dans la plupart des ACR, les pays pauvres ont accru leurs exportations vers leurs partenaires riches en ressources, tandis que ces derniers souffrent du détournement des échanges en termes d'importations. Dans le dernier chapitre, nous étudions l'impact de la dotation en ressources naturelles sur le processus de convergence entre les pays du PAFTA. Premièrement, les résultats démontrent que la sigma-convergence n'était observable qu'entre 1970 et 1990 dans les pays du PAFTA. De plus, l’estimation révèle que les ressources naturelles sont l'un des principaux déterminants de la convergence conditionnelle au sein du PAFTA. Par conséquent, l'asymétrie entre les pays en termes de dotation en ressources naturelles n'a pas empêché la convergence dans le PAFTA. L'analyse de la convergence des clubs a identifié trois principaux clubs parmi les pays du PAFTA. En outre, les facteurs qui ont déterminé la formation des clubs sont les ressources naturelles, la qualité des institutions et l'investissement. Par ailleurs, une abondance de ressources naturelles n'est pas suffisante pour être le meilleur club, mais doit être accompagnée d'institutions de qualité. / In this thesis, we examine the effect of the unequal distribution of natural resources between countries on three main aspects. In chapter one, we empirically examine potential asymmetric effects of the accession of the World Trade Organization (WTO) across members, focusing specifically on the developing countries. The results suggest that membership in the WTO contributed to greater exports for all countries, except for non-emerging resource-rich countries. In contrast, emerging resource-rich countries are the greatest beneficiaries from the accession of the WTO. In chapter two, we empirically explore the impact of natural resource endowments on the gains of six Regional Trade Agreements (RTA) across members through three axes: complementarity between countries, diversification of resource-rich countries, and trade creation and diversion. We conclude that the complementarity between resource-rich and resource-poor countries has been achieved in the ECOWAS, SADC and CIS agreements. The results also indicate that in all RTAs, the resource-rich countries increased exports in non-natural resource sectors and thereby diversified their export structures, especially with regional partners. Moreover, in most RTAs, poor countries boosted their exports to resources-rich partners, while resource-rich countries suffer from trade diversion in terms of imports. In the last chapter, we study the impact of natural resource endowments on the process of convergence among PAFTA countries. First, the results demonstrate that sigma-convergence was only observable between 1970-1990 among PAFTA countries. The estimation reveals that natural resources are one of the main determinants of conditional convergence within PAFTA. Therefore, the asymmetry between countries in terms of natural resource endowment did not impede the convergence in PAFTA. Club convergence analysis identify three main clubs among PAFTA countries. In addition, the factors that determined clubs’ formation are natural resources, quality of institutions, and investment. Further, an abundance of natural resources is alone not enough to be the best club, but must be accompanied by high-quality institutions.

Les « trois organisations soeurs », à savoir la Commission du Codex Alimentarius (CCA), l’Organisation mondiale de la santé animale (OIE) et la Convention internationale pour la protection des végétaux (CIPV), et les mesures sanitaires et phytosanitaires de l’ASEAN maintiennent une relation mutuellement étroite et des rapports d’interactions complexes et multidimensionnelles, rapports qui peuvent affecter des flux d’activités d’importation et d’exportation de produits agro-alimentaires réglementées surtout par le droit international économique. En envisageant le droit comme processus de décisions, particulièrement le droit international comme processus de communication entre les différents participants de la « communauté mondiale », ces rapports peuvent être mieux identifiés et compris à tous les niveaux : multilatéral, régional, bilatéral et national. Compte tenu de l’intensité et de la fréquence des échanges et du caractère fortement interdépendant du monde d’aujourd’hui, les « trois organisations soeurs » et leurs normes, directives et recommandations sont susceptibles de jouer divers rôles dans la promotion d’une plus grande production et d’un plus large partage des valeurs fondamentales recherchées par l’humanité entière, soutenues par la « New Haven School of International Law ». Non seulement s’agit-il des rôles liés à l’augmentation de l’efficacité du processus de réduction de barrières commerciales résultant des mesures SPS protectionnistes, mais aussi de ceux qui sont peu soulignées et qui se précisent suite aux pratiques répétées des décisionnistes de l’ASEAN. Ce sont notamment les rôles en tant qu’inducteurs de performance pour les mécanismes d’encadrement de mesures SPS, afin de s’assurer que celles-ci sont raisonnables par rapport à chaque contexte spécifique et respectueuses de la dignité humaine ; en tant que catalyseurs du régionalisme ouvert ; et en tant que promoteurs de la dimension du développement dans les accords commerciaux régionaux de l’ASEAN. / The « three sisters », namely the Codex Alimentarius Commission (CAC), the World Organisation for Animal Health (OIE) and the International Plant Protection Convention (IPPC), and SPS measures of ASEAN maintain a mutually close relationship and can interact with one another in complex and multidimensional ways, which can affect flows of import and export activities of agro-food products regulated especially by international economic law. By perceiving law as a process of decisions, and particularly international law as a process of communication among different participants of the « world community », these interactions can be better identified and comprehended at all levels : multilateral, regional, bilateral and national. Considering the intensity and frequency of exchanges and the strong interdependency of today’s world, the « three sisters » and their standards, guidelines and recommendations are likely to play numerous roles in promoting a greater production and wider distribution of fundamental values that all human beings desire to maximize and achieve, as defended by the « New Haven School of International Law ». Not only are these roles related to the promotion of a more efficient process of eliminating trade barriers deriving from SPS protectionist measures, but also those which are insufficiently highlighted, yet becoming more obvious through repeated practices of ASEAN decision-makers. These are notably the roles of the « three sisters » as performance drivers for monitoring mechanisms of SPS measures with a view to ensuring that they are reasonable in each specific context and respectful towards human dignity; as catalysts of open regionalism ; as promoters of the development dimension in regional trade agreements concluded by ASEAN.