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The major objectives of this study are to: (i) improve the understanding of what is meant by economic diversification and economic diversity, (ii) provide a comprehensive conceptual framework for region-specific analysis of the relationship between changing economic structure and economic performance measured in terms of the growth, stability, and distribution of income and employment, and (iii) construct an operational model of a regional economy that can be used to assess the impacts of alternative development strategies. This study attempts to sort out the overlaps, contradictions, and gaps among the different economic and finance theories, and the different definitions and measures of economic diversification and diversity. The subject of economic diversification or diversity is addressed in the context of the question: "What is the relationship between a region’s changing economic structure and performance?" A structural model of a regional economy, an extended input-output model based on a social accounting matrix (SAM), serves as the foundation of the conceptual framework and operational model. The SAM-based input- output model explicitly depicts the functional relationship between economic structure and performance. The region’s demand, production technologies, and trade flows are included as part of economic structure. Economic performance is measured as the growth, stability, and distribution of regional income and employment, by occupation group. The structural model is used to analyze the relationship between economic structure and performance for a given time period, and to analyze changes over time. Growth, stability, and distributional impacts are considered simultaneously. By doing this, potential tradeoffs can be explicitly addressed. To identify the structural sources of growth and stability, the SAM-based input-output model is decomposed at different points in time. By decomposing a SAM-based model it is possible to analyze structural sources of growth and stability in terms of both supply and demand factors. Alternative development strategies can be modelled using this conceptual framework. The operational model quantifies the relationship between: (i) the anticipated growth and stability of exogenous final demands, and (ii) the anticipated growth, stability, and distribution of endogenous income and employment, by occupation group. The operational model focuses attention on the distributional impacts of changing economic structure and performance. The relationship between a region’s social welfare, and the aggregation scheme and accounting stance used in the analysis of economic impacts are explicitly addressed. As such, there are explicit social welfare criteria for comparing and ranking alternative development strategies. The operational model presented in this study is well-suited to many popular input-output application packages. / Ph. D.

The purpose of this study is assess the domestic regional impacts of changes in federal fiscal policies and the nation's trade deficit. An attempt is made to fill a gap in the literature of regional economics by providing an explanation of how economic changes at national and international levels are transmitted to regions, and by providing general-equilibrium estimates of the effects of these changes. The level of regional economic activity is assumed to be linked to the federal budget through federal purchases of goods and services, through intergovernmental transfers, and through net transfers to households. Domestic regions are linked to the balance of trade through shifts in exports and imports and through shifts in net income transfers from abroad. An interregional computable general equilibrium (CGE) model is constructed and calibrated for Virginia and the rest of the United States (ROUS). Scenarios approximating federal fiscal policies and the trade deficit during the period 1981-85 are introduced, and the model is solved to obtain a new equilibrium. As a result of these shocks, it is concluded: (a) that the magnitude of sectoral effects differed in Virginia versus ROUS, (b) that in contrast to non-rural sectors, rural sectors in Virginia experienced slower growth in value added, (c) that investment in Virginia and in ROUS increased in response to the net inflow of savings from abroad, but the increase was mitigated by the rise in federal spending, and (d) that a tariff increase on the output of the apparel and textile industry would increase output in that industry in Virginia but would decrease it in other industries if the economy were fully employed. / Ph. D.

本研究發現一個地區的經濟發展水平與當地居民對中央政府的信任程度負相關。 / 本研究包括定量和定性兩個部份。定量部份，普通最小二乘線性回歸(OLS)分析和雙層回歸分析的結果顯示：區域經濟發展水平與人們對中央政府的信任存在顯著的負相關關係。控制了個人因素變量，上述相關關係仍然顯著。定性分析部份討論了傳統文化與信息流通在發達地區和欠發達地區如何影響政府信任。這部份分析發現文化因素和信息因素是導致某一地區的民眾比另一地區民眾更不相信中央政府的重要因素，但必須與經濟發展因素相結合才能發揮顯著作用。文化與信息受當地的經濟發展水平影響：一個地區的經濟發展水平越高，傳統文化的影響力越弱，信息化程度越高；反之，經濟發展水平越低，傳統文化的影響力越強，信息化程度越低。定量分析與定性分析都支持研究假設。 / 把上述靜態觀察納入動態視角，從長遠看，區域經濟發展將削弱公眾對中央政府的信任。具體來說，假定目前的局勢延續，隨著中國越來越多的地區經濟得到發展，當地民眾對中央政府的信任會相應降低。據此推測，中國人的政府信任可能會經歷一個由“中央高、地方低再變為“中央低、地方更低的過程。 / This research shows that the level of economic development in a region has a negative correlation with local residents’ trust in the central government. / This study draws on both quantitative and qualitative analyses. In the quantitative section, both OLS regression and hierarchical linear modeling show that the level of regional economic development has a significant negative correlation with public trust in the central government, controlling for individual factors. Qualitative analysis suggests that traditional culture and the flow of political information affect people’s trust in government when they interact with economic development. In places where economy is underdeveloped, traditional culture has a larger impact and the flow of political information is less free. By contrast, in places where economy is more developed, traditional culture has a weaker effect and the flow of political information is freer. / Putting the finding of the cross-sectional analysis into a dynamic perspective, it is suggested that the development of local economy may in the long run weaken local residents’ trust in the central government. More specifically, assuming that the present situation continues, as more and more regions experience economic growth, local residents may develop weaker confidence in the central government. The pattern of trust in government may then evolve from the current “high trust in the central government and lower trust in local government into “low trust in the central government and even lower trust in local government. / Detailed summary in vernacular field only. / Detailed summary in vernacular field only. / Detailed summary in vernacular field only. / 呂書鵬. / Thesis (Ph.D.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 2012. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 157-173). / Abstracts in Chinese and English. / Lü Shupeng. / 內容摘要 --- p.i / ABSTRACT --- p.ii / 致謝 --- p.iii / Chapter 第1章 --- 概論 --- p.1 / Chapter 1.1 --- 問題的提出 --- p.1 / Chapter 1.2 --- 相關概念 --- p.4 / Chapter 1.3 --- 研究方法 --- p.7 / Chapter 1.4 --- 研究框架 --- p.8 / Chapter 1.5 --- 研究局限 --- p.10 / Chapter 第2章 --- 文獻綜述 --- p.12 / Chapter 2.1 --- 政府信任 --- p.12 / Chapter 2.1.1 --- 政府信任的重要性 --- p.12 / Chapter 2.1.2 --- 政府信任的特點 --- p.20 / Chapter 2.2 --- 政府信任的影響因素 --- p.25 / Chapter 2.2.1 --- 經濟因素 --- p.27 / Chapter 2.2.2 --- 社會文化因素 --- p.28 / Chapter 2.2.3 --- 政治因素 --- p.29 / Chapter 2.2.4 --- 政府因素 --- p.33 / Chapter 2.2.5 --- 信息因素 --- p.34 / Chapter 2.3 --- 中國政府信任研究現狀 --- p.37 / Chapter 2.3.1 --- 中國傳統文化與政府信任 --- p.37 / Chapter 2.3.2 --- 規則意識與權利意識 --- p.39 / Chapter 2.3.3 --- 差序政府信任 --- p.40 / Chapter 2.3.4 --- 政府信任與政治參與 --- p.41 / Chapter 2.4 --- 本章小結 --- p.45 / Chapter 第3章 --- 數據描述 --- p.46 / Chapter 3.1 --- 數據介紹 --- p.46 / Chapter 3.2 --- 描述性分析 --- p.47 / Chapter 3.2.1 --- 政府信任在地區間的差異 --- p.47 / Chapter 3.2.2 --- 政府信任在地區間的分佈特點 --- p.52 / Chapter 3.3 --- 本章小結 --- p.54 / Chapter 第4章 --- 回歸模型分析 --- p.56 / Chapter 4.1 --- 單層線性回歸模型 --- p.56 / Chapter 4.1.1 --- 變量 --- p.56 / Chapter 4.1.2 --- 回歸分析 --- p.59 / Chapter 4.2 --- 雙層線性回歸模型 --- p.67 / Chapter 4.2.1 --- 個體層次變量 --- p.70 / Chapter 4.2.2 --- 分層次線性模型的構建 --- p.77 / Chapter 4.3 --- 本章小結 --- p.89 / Chapter 第5章 --- 討論 --- p.91 / Chapter 5.1 --- 政府信任影響因素在區域間的變異 --- p.91 / Chapter 5.2 --- 發達地區居民不相信政府的啟示 --- p.106 / Chapter 5.2.1 --- 傳統政治信任體系將難以為繼 --- p.106 / Chapter 5.2.2 --- 差序政府信任的產生和消亡 --- p.109 / Chapter 5.3 --- 作為自變量的政府信任 --- p.126 / Chapter 5.4 --- 本章小結 --- p.137 / Chapter 第6章 --- 結論 --- p.140 / Chapter 附錄一： --- 訪談對象列表 --- p.143 / Chapter 附錄二： --- 本研究所涉及的2008年China Survey的問題 --- p.147 / Chapter 附錄三： --- 73個縣/區以地方政府信任為自變量的截距和斜率 --- p.150 / Chapter 附錄四： --- 與論文相關的非學術性文檔列表 --- p.152 / 參考文獻 --- p.157

The topic of this thesis is economic dynamism. The five articles contribute to the literature on firm entry and firm growth. Studies are based on a dataset covering all Swedish limited liability firms between 1997 and 2010. The first article investigates conditions for firm entry in Sweden, distinguishing regular entrants from entrants that survive for at least two years, modelling the firm entry decision using count data models. While high income and a well-educated population had a positive effect, the effect was more important for surviving entrants. The second article uses a similar method, but focuses on wholesale industries and distinguishes between regular entry and in migration of firms, i.e. when an incumbent firm relocates its operations. Access to a university, many educated workers and low local taxes had positive effects. Better access to infrastructure had a strong positive effect on entrants, but it was smaller for in-migrating firms. The third article investigates if the industry context matters for whether Gibrat’s law holds, i.e. whether firm growth is independent of firm size. The law is found more likely to be rejected in industries with a high minimum efficient scale and a large number of firms located in metropolitan areas, but more likely to hold in industries with high market concentration and more group ownership. The fourth and fifth article contribute to the high-growth firms (HGFs) literature. In the fourth article it is examined whether the way HGFs are defined matters for the policy implications. It is found that the economic contributions of HGFs differ significantly depending on definition. Young firms are however more likely to be HGFs irrespective of definition. The fifth article considers the frequent argument that policymakers should target high-tech firms, i.e., firms with high R&D intensity, because such firms are thought more likely to become HGFs. We examine this assumption by studying the industry distribution of HGFs. Results indicate that industries with high R&D intensity, ceteris paribus, can be expected to have a lower share of HGFs than can industries with lower R&D intensity. By contrast, we find that HGFs are overrepresented in service industries with a high share of human capital.

Shanghai’s residential property prices have been consistently rising for the past decade. Both the municipal and national governments have announced a series of alternately restrictive and encouraging house purchasing policies that aimed at adjusting housing prices. This paper studies all of the policies announced from January 2011 to October 2016. Using residential house price data of houses of different sizes and in different locations, this paper shows that two out of the six restrictive policy events achieved their intended negative impact on housing prices, while two out of four encouraging policy events delivered their intended positive impact. When aggregated, encouraging policies had a significant impact and restrictive policies did not.

A demanda crescente por fontes energéticas limpas em substituição ao petróleo tem provocado grande expansão dos biocombustíveis - combustíveis produzidos a partir de produtos agrícolas. Para o Brasil, esse processo, antes de representar um entrave ao crescimento, pela necessidade de mudanças da matriz energética, representa grande oportunidade de geração de valor e renda, uma vez que o país apresenta nítidas vantagens comparativas na produção desses combustíveis de fontes renováveis. No país, o principal biocombustível é o etanol, cuja matéria-prima é cana-de-açúcar. O setor produtor de cana-de-açúcar tem passado por intensas transformações, com atração de capital estrangeiro, abertura de novas plantas industriais e intensificação dos processos de fusões e aquisições. Subsistem dúvidas, no entanto, com relação aos impactos sociais e econômicos do setor para a economia como um todo. Nessa tese são analisados três desses impactos. O primeiro trata do efeito do aumento da produção de cana-de-açúcar sobre os preços da terra e dos alimentos. Também são analisados os impactos do setor sobre as condições sociais das localidades que concentram a produção. Finalmente, são investigados os impactos do setor sobre a arrecadação municipal. Os resultados obtidos sugerem que a expansão da produção de cana-de-açúcar não é a causa de aumentos dos preços da terra e dos de alimentos; não existem efeitos (positivos ou negativos) do setor sobre as condições sociais das localidades produtoras; e o setor pode contribuir positivamente para o aumento da arrecadação local. / The growing demand for clean energy sources to replace petroleum has substantially expanded the use of biofuels fuels produced from agricultural products. For Brazil, instead of representing a hindrance to growth because of the need for changes in the countrys energy mix, this represents a great opportunity to generate value and income, since the country has clear comparative advantages in producing these fuels from renewable sources. The main biofuel in the country is ethanol, made from sugarcane. The countrys cane growing sector has been undergoing intense transformations, with the attraction of foreign capital, opening of new distilleries and intensification of mergers and acquisitions. However, doubts have been raised about the socioeconomic effects of the spread of sugarcane growing, such as the effects on the environment, labor market, social conditions and food prices, among others. This thesis analyzes three of these impacts. The first is the effect of the increased production of sugarcane on land and food prices. The second is the effect on social conditions in the regions where cane growing is concentrated. The third is the impact on municipal tax revenues. The results suggest that the expansion of cane growing is not the cause of increased land and food prices, that the sector has no significant effects (positive or negative) on social conditions in cane growing regions, and that the sector can contribute positively by increasing local tax revenue.