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Yes / We derive the optimal investment timing and real option value for a facility with price and quantity uncertainty, where there might be a government subsidy proportional to production quantity. Where the subsidy is proportional to the multiplication of the price and quantity, dimensionality can be reduced. Alternatively, we provide quasi-analytical solutions for different quantity subsidy arrangements: permanent (policy is certain); retractable; suddenly permanent; and suddenly retractable. Whether policy uncertainty acts as a disincentive for early investment depends on the type of subsidy arrangement. The greatest incentive for early investment is an actual retractable subsidy, a ‘flighty bird in hand’.

The success of wind power integration throughout Europe has been largely varied with some European countries showing large boosts in capacity compared to some which show none at all.  This Thesis looks at those countries that have been successful in order to determine which factors have led to this success and what if any lessons can be learned in order to assist other countries.  The countries studied make up the top three for total wind power capacity and top three for total capacity per capita.  The surrounding elements that affect wind power development are assessed and relevant trends are investigated and discussed.  Factors such as, support instruments and overall governance are discussed in detail with a number of trends being found.  Calculations were conducted developing an average mean annual percentage increase for total capacity which showed that countries with an undeveloped wind power industry switching to a form of quota system could show a boost to total capacity.  No evidence was found that suggested switching to or changing an existing feed in tariff system would result in a boost in installed capacity.  In assessing governance, a trend was discovered showing obligations and targets helped to drive boosts in capacity especially for the countries who implemented a quota system. Brining these two trends together it was determined that strong top level governance was required to actually kick start boosts in total capacity.  The use of combinations of support schemes is assessed and a trend determined that suggests that use a quota system as a primary support scheme is better suited to having tax incentives as a secondary with feed in tariff systems having financial support as a secondary system.  A plan for developing wind power in countries with undeveloped wind power industries is developed based on the trends identified within the Thesis.  This suggests that a switch to a quota system combined with strong EU and national Governance could help to boost capacity to a point at which time a switch to a form of FIT would be beneficial to build on this steady base.

published_or_final_version / Environmental Management / Master / Master of Science in Environmental Management

The deployment of renewable energy (RE) technologies for electricity generation is a central element of the European energy and climate strategy and was laid down in binding targets on EU-level. The actual RE technology diffusion is, however, shaped by the framework conditions and support measures implemented in the individual EU Member States. This dissertation aims at contributing to a more integrated view of the influencing factors (determinants) for the deployment of RE technologies. To this end, a conceptual framework is drawn up to assess the boundary conditions for RE diffusion from the RE developer’s perspective. The framework is operationalised using a composite indicator (CI) approach and applied in a diffusion model to allow the anticipation of possible future technology deployment. The thesis concentrates on two mainstream RE technologies, namely onshore wind and non-residential PV, and focuses on European countries. Within the analysis, particular emphasis is placed on providing a holistic assessment of the impact of economic and non-economic determinants on the diffusion of RE technologies at national level. The assessment aims at understanding RE developers’ preferences and rationalities regarding the overall framework conditions for RE deployment in order to identify the drivers for and barriers to technological change and to facilitate efficient policy design and regulatory transformation. The most relevant diffusion determinants from the viewpoint of RE project developers are identified through literature research and moderated expert workshops. The relative relevance of the determinants in the diffusion process is then assessed based on an EU-wide questionnaire that resulted in the collection of >200 datasets. Building on this broad empirical basis, a composite indicator (CI) is developed for the diffusion of non-residential PV and wind onshore. The CI provides a transparent framework for the quantification of the diffusion determinants and allows an evaluation and benchmarking of national RE frameworks. In a further step, the CI is integrated in a diffusion model which enables projections of possible future market developments under different configurations of the national RE framework. This modelling approach applies and further develops established logistic models of technology diffusion. The overall approach is validated by applying it to three case study countries: Germany, Spain and the United Kingdom. Data collection in these case study countries involved, among others, semi-structured interviews with 31 RE experts. The different regulatory framework conditions in the three countries lead to 3 different CI results and projected technology diffusion. The results verify the robustness of the approach and the applicability of the concept to different national contexts. The findings of this thesis contribute to the methodological and empirical basis for understanding and modelling technology diffusion processes in general and RE technology diffusion in particular. The approach developed in this thesis further improves the scientific basis for the evaluation of RE support policies and can contribute to RE targets being achieved in an efficient and sustainable way.

Action on climate change will require an increase in renewable energy projects to support electrification in the transition away from burning fossil fuels. Indigenous peoples throughout Canada are developing community-owned small-scale (producing less than one megawatt of power) renewable energy projects and are interested in developing more. Despite Indigenous peoples’ involvement and interest, there is a lack of research into the impact of these projects for communities. This thesis explores whether and how small-scale renewable energy projects developed by First Nations communities in British Columbia (BC) might contribute to supporting justice within the energy transition. The research included a province-wide survey (First Nations Clean Energy Survey), and a case study with a remote First Nation with multiple small-scale renewable energy projects in operation—the Village of Skidegate on Haida Gwaii. This research found that small-scale projects are a distinct experience within the renewable energy sector, one that is offering First Nations communities an accessible form of power production that provides myriad benefits. Some benefits were easy to measure, such as cost savings and greenhouse gas reductions, while the majority of benefits were not as easy to quantify, such as increasing connection and engagement with energy, increasing self-sufficiency, providing a vision of a future free of oil and gas reliance, community pride and education. As these benefits indicate, the thesis concludes that small-scale renewable energy developments offer a distinctive and important opportunity that First Nations are using to enforce self-determination and build community resilience. / Graduate

Governments and utility organizations around the world have mandated and provided incentives for new distributed renewable energy generation (DREG) capacity, and market projections indicate strong growth in distributed renewable energy generation installations in the coming years. New distributed renewable energy generation utilities, by definition, will be primarily located in built environments near consumers; these utilities are often planned and designed by landscape architects, yet no evidence-based, distributed renewable energy generation research is explicitly done by landscape architects or recognizes the role landscape architects play in planning and designing these spaces. The research and analysis provided by this study indicates that distributed renewable energy generation lacks a strong foundation as an independent concept which could benefit from clear broad phraseology linked to organized sub-terms/phrases for specific forms of DREG, that there has been some research done on topics familiar to landscape architects, that more needs to be done to meet important research questions and recommendations already posed, and that landscape architects are positioned to contribute to future distributed renewable energy generation research.

This paper presents the role of alternative energy technologies in displacing fossil fuels as the world's primary energy source. To that end, a CAPM-GARCH multi-factor market model is used to investigate the relationship between returns on oil and alternative energy stocks. Results show that an increase in oil prices and the broad market have a statistically significant and positive impact on alternative energy stock returns. Furthermore, the alternative energy sector is substantially more risky than the broad market but has the potential for higher returns. This highlights the infancy and inherently risky nature of the alternative energy sector today, but demonstrates the potential for substantial future investment gain as alternative energy technologies become more mature and widely available. Interestingly, estimation of the alternative energy index model indicated the presence of abnormal returns which was not the case for the solar index model, implying that the abnormal returns were generated from a different sectoral component of the alternative energy index.