Although the 2005 EPAct was enacted to help bolster the emerging biofuel industry, 52% of advanced biofuel projects were closed or shut down by 2015. However, there are no complete lists of barriers that impeded these projects. The goal of this study was to develop a framework of barriers impeding success of advanced biofuel projects by conducting a literature review of barriers, spatial analysis of status, survey of barriers, and determination of coproducts and byproducts and their marketing and distribution barriers from the industry stakeholders. The spatial analysis indicated 59 biofuel projects were attempted, and their Eastern and Western location by status was not a barrier. Using Grounded Theory, nine barriers were derived and aggregated in major categories, including product development, strategy, technology, competition, energy costs, funding, government, suppliers, and third-party relations. A contingency analysis was conducted relating their status to internal and external barriers, indicating no relationship between type of closing and type of barrier. Next, the number of barriers was expanded to 23, and a survey was conducted to gain knowledge on these barriers from industry stakeholders. When comparing the barriers by stakeholders, there were differences based on status, type, and technology of the projects. In addition, the survey and discussion identified 79 barriers different across years, type of industry (pilot, demonstration, or commercial), status (open, closed, or planning), and technology (thermochemical, biochemical, or hybrid). Forty-seven coproducts and byproducts and many unknown barriers to their marketability and distribution were determined and ranked by primary and secondary barriers. These extensive lists of barriers and coproducts will aid future biofuels projects in their planning, research, and development stages. / Master of Science

Die Ziele der vorliegenden Studie sind es, sowohl die Faktoren zu identifizieren, die den Ethanol-Kraftstoffmarkt der EU27 und der USA bis zum Jahr 2023 entscheidend beeinflussen werden, als auch die Bildung unterschiedlicher Szenarien, die den jeweiligen Markt im Jahr 2023 beschreiben. Anlass der Untersuchung war die Erkenntnis, dass die etablierten Forschungsinstitute ein weiteres Wachstum des Ethanolmarktes der EU27 und der USA prognostizieren, obwohl derzeitig eine starke Verunsicherung der Märkte vorherrscht und es im Jahr 2012 zu einem Rückgang der Ethanolproduktion in beiden Regionen gekommen ist. Die Verunsicherung des Ethanolmarktes der EU27 ist auf eine mögliche Änderung der politischen Förderung von Bi-okraftstoffen zurückzuführen, um einen Wandel des momentanen Ethanolmarktes der ersten Generation hin zu einem Markt der zweiten Generation zu erreichen. Der US-amerikanische Ethanolmarkt wird durch die „Blend Wall“-Problematik und einer möglichen Absenkung der Verbrauchsmandate des RFS 2 verunsichert. Die Erfüllung der beiden genannten Untersuchungsziele erfolgt mittels eines optimierten Ver-fahrens der Szenario-Technik, welches sich in die drei Kernschritte „Szenariofeld-Analyse“, „Szenario-Prognostik“ und „Szenario-Bildung und -Konsistenzprüfung“ untergliedert. Für den Ethanolmarkt der EU27 wird nach Durchführung des ersten Kernschritts ersichtlich, dass der Markt entscheidend von politischen Faktoren beeinflusst werden wird. Auch der US-amerikanische Markt wird in Zukunft erheblich durch die Politik und die „Blend Wall“-Problematik bestimmt sein. Die Erstellung der Szenarien erfolgt mithilfe der Kernschritte 2 und 3. Der Ethanolmarkt der EU27 im Jahr 2023 wird durch vier Szenarien beschrieben, die sowohl einen starken Anstieg des Ethanolmarktes der ersten Generation als auch einen Wandel des Marktes hin zur zwei-ten Generation prognostizieren. Infolge des Wandels würde der Markt schrumpfen und keine Nachfrage mehr nach Biokraftstoffen der ersten Generation in der EU27 bestehen. Eine sol-che Entwicklung würde die bereits bestehende Ethanolindustrie der ersten Generation in ihrer Existenz bedrohen. Der US-amerikanische Ethanolmarkt im Jahr 2023 wird ebenfalls durch vier Szenarien dar-gestellt. Beschreiben diese auf der einen Seite einen sehr starken Anstieg des Marktes, da der RFS 2 unverändert bleibt, prognostizieren sie auf der anderen Seite aufgrund einer star-ken Kürzung des RFS 2 ein nur moderates Marktwachstum. Im Gegensatz zur EU27 wird die bereits bestehende Ethanolindustrie in den USA jedoch nicht in Frage gestellt.

The need to decrease emissions from the transport sector is getting urgent and public transport can play an important role in the transition to low emission fuels. To a large extent, public transport in Europe is provided by regional authorities who controls the traffic to a varying degree, from complete public monopoly to competitive tendering. Therefore, the aim of this paper is to analyse how the organisation of the public bus transport market influences the introduction of renewable fuels. The focus is on understanding what the motivation is for the use of different organisational forms and what challenges and opportunities the authorities in a region encounter during the introduction of renewable fuels. Interviews with authorities in ten Swedish public transport regions show that when functional requirements are used in competitive tendering it will exclusively result in the cheapest renewable fuel available. Thus, if new fuels or technologies should be able to enter the market, either it will be necessary for regional authorities to take more control using specific requirements or publicly management, or the national government must introduce policy instruments that enable new renewable fuels to become competitive on the market.

Demand for liquid fuels (i.e., petroleum products) has burdened the U.S. with major challenges, including national security and economic concerns stemming from rising petroleum imports; impacts of global climate change from rising emissions of CO2; and continued public health concerns from criteria and hazardous (i.e., toxic) air pollutants. Over the last decade or so, biofuels have been touted as a supply-side solution to several of these problems. Biofuels can be produced from domestic biomass feedstocks (e.g., corn, soybeans), they have the potential to reduce GHG emissions when compared to petroleum products on a lifecycle basis, and some biofuels have been shown to reduce criteria air pollutants. Today, there are numerous policy incentives—existing and proposed—aimed at supporting the biofuels industry in the U.S. However, the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) Program stands as perhaps the most significant mandate imposed to date to promote the use of biofuels. Overall, the RFS stands as the key driver in a transition to biofuels in the near term. By mandating annual consumption of biofuels, increasing to 36 bgy by 2022, the program has the potential to significantly alter the state of the U.S. liquid fuels sector. Fuel transitions in the transportation sector are the focus of this thesis. More specifically, the increasing consumption of biofuels in the transportation sector, as mandated by the RFS, is examined. With a well-developed, efficient, and expensive, petroleum-based infrastructure in place, many barriers must be overcome for biofuels to play a significant role in the transportation sector. Identifying and understanding the barriers to a biofuels transition is the objective of this thesis. Although fuel transitions may seem daunting and unfamiliar, the U.S. transportation sector has undergone numerous transitions in the past. Chapter 2 reviews major fuel transitions that have occurred in the U.S. liquid fuels sector over the last half century, including the phasing out of lead additives in gasoline, the transition from MTBE to ethanol as the predominant oxygenate additive in gasoline, and the recent introduction of ULSD. These historical transitions represent the uncertainty and diversity of fuel transition pathways, and illustrate the range of impacts that can occur across the fuel supply chain infrastructure. Many pertinent lessons can be derived from these historical transitions and used to identify and assess barriers facing the adoption of alternative fuels (i.e., biofuels) and to understand how such a transition might unfold. Computer models can also help to explore the implications of fuel transitions. In order to better understand the barriers associated with fuel transitions, and to identify options for overcoming these barriers, many recent research efforts have used sophisticated modeling techniques to analyze energy transitions. Chapter 3 reviews a number of these recent modeling efforts with a focus on understanding how these methodologies have been applied, or may be adapted, to analyzing a transition to biofuels. Four general categories of models are reviewed: system dynamics, complex adaptive systems, infrastructure optimization, and economic models. In chapter 4, scenarios created from a high-level model of the liquid fuels sector (the Liquid Fuels Transition model) are presented to explore potential pathways and barriers to a biofuels transition. The scenarios illustrate different pathways to meeting the requirements of the RFS mandate, and differ based on the overall demand of liquid fuels, how the biofuels mandate is met (i.e., the mix of biofuels), and the status of the ethanol blend limit in the motor gasoline sector. The scenarios are used to evaluate the infrastructure implications associated with a biofuels transition, and illustrate the uncertainty that exists in assessing such a transition. / text

The objective of this dissertation is to analyze the economic impact of newly operational ethanol biorefineries on rural counties in the U.S. Midwest region for the period 2001 to 2015 using a quasi-experimental approach. Rapid growth in the ethanol industry expanded the number of ethanol plants located in the U.S. Midwest from 54 in 2001 to 173 in 2015. Out of the counties with 119 new ethanol biorefineries, 97 counties met the general treatment criteria defined in this dissertation, but only 56 of those counties qualified for the rural treatment criteria. Counties with ethanol biorefineries that qualified for treatment were organized into a treated group based on county level data. Six counterfactual control groups (or control counties without ethanol biorefineries) were contemporaneously matched to the treated counties based on the Mahalanobis distance metric evaluated on a set of 29 selection variables. Matching occurred on two levels. In the first level, matching was performed both for the in-state level and over the entire Midwest region. In the second level, three criteria were used to select the final control groups: Mahalanobis distance metric best match, population best match, and rural-urban continuum codes (RUCC) best match. Economic impact is evaluated based on the growth rate in real per capita earnings for the treated group over a period from one to five years after treatment relative to the control group. A difference-in-differences (DID) model is used to assess the significance of results where the dependent variable is the natural log of real per capita earnings and a set of control variables is used to capture state fixed effects, time fixed effects and spillover effects. Empirical results evaluated against a representative Midwest control group and over six regression models adjusting for various fixed effects produced, on average, one-sided significant results for average treatment on the treated (ATOT) with a (min, max) range of growth rates as (5.53%-7.63%), (10.0%-12.0%), (14.7%-19.6%), (14.5%-18.3%), and (13.3%-18.9%) from one to five years after treatment, respectively. The minimum value of these estimates can be represented as an uncorrected average annual growth rate as 2.75%, 3.33%, 3.68%, 2.90%, and 2.22% over the respective period from one to five years after treatment. Employment levels for the treated group increased on average by 211 at the county level five years after treatment. A comparative Midwest control group lost, on average, 169 jobs over the five year period after treatment. A treated county employment multiplier calculated using the direct, indirect and induced employment impacts varied from 1.46 during the year of treatment to 7.6 five years after treatment relative to the control group. Five years after treatment, the treated group employment rate gradually increased, on average, by 2.2% which was better than either of the two counterfactual control groups used in this comparison. Overall, the analysis presented in this dissertation does show statistically significant positive economic impacts, on average, for rural U.S. Midwest counties with newly operational ethanol biorefineries relative to control counties without an ethanol biorefinery. These results demonstrate that the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) contributed to positive rural economic development impacts in treated counties with the possibility of spillover effects positively affecting contiguous counties.

Biofuels have been used as an energy source for heating and cooking since the beginning of time. However, recent changes in the demand for energy, and in particular, renewable energy, have spurred the growth of liquid biofuel industries in developed countries. Many developing countries, including South Africa have the potential to produce biofuels with benefits extending into the economic and social spheres. Despite government commitments and targets, the South African biodiesel and bio-ethanol industries have stalled in the starting blocks. This research aims to assess the reasons why. South Africa does not have the climate to compete with Brazil in bio-ethanol production and the scope for bioethanol is limited by environmental factors. However our neighbours show significantly more promise in this area. Biodiesel production is more likely to be commercially viable due to the country’s ability to grow oil crops and the need for the by-products. Despite the availability of land for cultivation of energy crops, the required technology and suitable infrastructure, progress has been slow. Uncertainty, high risk and misdirected government interventions have hampered investment in the sector and those involved in biofuel projects are very negative about the government’s ability to stimulate the industry. Consequently, they are looking towards importing feedstock material and exporting the biofuel. This will create a limited number of jobs, but will be energy and carbon negative, and will not aid rural development. Currently there is no medium or large scale virgin oil to biofuel producer operating in the country and the start-up dates for projects are beyond 2013. The WVO biodiesel industry has grown rapidly in the last five years but is limited to small scale operators with limited benefit potential. With the exception of Brazil, other world leaders in biofuels are facing heavy criticism and the mechanisms used to initially boost the industry have very limited application in South Africa. The benefits of biofuel production in South Africa are plentiful and align well with social need and development goals. / Thesis (MBA)--North-West University, Potchefstroom Campus, 2013.

Biofuels have been used as an energy source for heating and cooking since the beginning of time. However, recent changes in the demand for energy, and in particular, renewable energy, have spurred the growth of liquid biofuel industries in developed countries. Many developing countries, including South Africa have the potential to produce biofuels with benefits extending into the economic and social spheres. Despite government commitments and targets, the South African biodiesel and bio-ethanol industries have stalled in the starting blocks. This research aims to assess the reasons why. South Africa does not have the climate to compete with Brazil in bio-ethanol production and the scope for bioethanol is limited by environmental factors. However our neighbours show significantly more promise in this area. Biodiesel production is more likely to be commercially viable due to the country’s ability to grow oil crops and the need for the by-products. Despite the availability of land for cultivation of energy crops, the required technology and suitable infrastructure, progress has been slow. Uncertainty, high risk and misdirected government interventions have hampered investment in the sector and those involved in biofuel projects are very negative about the government’s ability to stimulate the industry. Consequently, they are looking towards importing feedstock material and exporting the biofuel. This will create a limited number of jobs, but will be energy and carbon negative, and will not aid rural development. Currently there is no medium or large scale virgin oil to biofuel producer operating in the country and the start-up dates for projects are beyond 2013. The WVO biodiesel industry has grown rapidly in the last five years but is limited to small scale operators with limited benefit potential. With the exception of Brazil, other world leaders in biofuels are facing heavy criticism and the mechanisms used to initially boost the industry have very limited application in South Africa. The benefits of biofuel production in South Africa are plentiful and align well with social need and development goals. / Thesis (MBA)--North-West University, Potchefstroom Campus, 2013.

Submitted by João Paulo Haddad (joaoprhaddad@gmail.com) on 2015-03-04T20:23:45Z No. of bitstreams: 1 JoaoPRHaddad_dissertação_MPAGRO.pdf: 428803 bytes, checksum: 9d3362c4928252a97968c52175773cbf (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Fabiana da Silva Segura (fabiana.segura@fgv.br) on 2015-03-04T21:19:37Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 JoaoPRHaddad_dissertação_MPAGRO.pdf: 428803 bytes, checksum: 9d3362c4928252a97968c52175773cbf (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2015-03-04T21:20:48Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 JoaoPRHaddad_dissertação_MPAGRO.pdf: 428803 bytes, checksum: 9d3362c4928252a97968c52175773cbf (MD5) Previous issue date: 2015-02-04 / Ethanol trading between Brazil and United States is strongly guided by a reg-ulatory asymmetry, which valorizes the Brazilian product through the creation of an American demand for it. This demand is originated from the Renewable Fuel Stand-ard (RFS) program’s mandates for biofuels consumption. RFS classifies the Brazili-an ethanol as an Advanced Biofuel, turning this product more valuable in the Unit-ed States than the one produced locally from the corn starch. What differentiates one product from the other is the producing process, which gives to the sugar cane ethanol the status of a less CO2 emitting life cycle biofuel when compared do the ethanol made from corn. Although there is a difference between both production systems, the final product is the same: Anhydrous Fuel Ethanol. Therefore, when the American demand for the sugar cane product causes a deficit in the Brazilian balance of supply and demand, it makes necessary an importation of ethanol from the US. This ethanol’s round trip occurs simultaneously, which allows to consider that there is a redundant flow of product between both countries, with financial and environmental expenses that could be avoided. Given that the American interest for the Brazilian product lies on the lower emission life cycle of the sugar cane ethanol, the redundant flow mentioned before could be swapped for transactions of Ad-vanced Biofuel Credits, a new idea which is designed throughout this work. For the Credits traded from Brazil to the United States, the latter will account on it’s balance the emissions of CO2 related to an equivalent volume of ethanol from sugar cane, while Brazil assumes the emissions for the same volume of ethanol from corn starch. The substitution of physical product trading for paper trading is the source for the savings proposed by the title of this work. / O comércio de etanol entre Brasil e Estados Unidos é fortemente guiado por uma assimetria regulatória, que agrega valor ao etanol brasileiro ao gerar uma de-manda americana pelo produto derivado da cana de açúcar. A demanda advém dos mandatos de consumo de biocombustíveis estabelecidos no programa americano conhecido como Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS). A assimetria emerge pelo fato de RFS dar ao etanol brasileiro a classificação de Biocombustível Avançado, tornando-o para os Estados Unidos um produto mais nobre que o etanol derivado do amido de milho produzido domesticamente. Apesar dos processos produtivos tornarem os dois produtos diferenciados quanto ao teor de emissão de CO2 em seus ciclos de vida, o produto final é o mesmo: etanol anidro combustível. Portanto, quando a aquisição de etanol brasileiro pelos Estados Unidos é tal que torna o balanço do-méstico de oferta e demanda deficitário no Brasil, faz-se necessária a importação brasileira de etanol americano. Esse vai e vem do produto ocorre de forma simultâ-nea e, por isso, considera-se a existência de um fluxo redundante de etanol, geran-do custos logísticos, transacionais e emissões de CO2 que poderiam ser evitados. Dado que o objeto do interesse americano pelo produto brasileiro é o baixo índice de emissões de CO2 no ciclo de vida do etanol de cana de açúcar, o fluxo redun-dante de etanol pode ser substituído por transações de Créditos de Biocombustível Avançado, uma nova ideia que é desenvolvida ao longo deste trabalho. Para cada Crédito transacionado, os Estados Unidos contabilizarão em seu balanço a emissão de CO2 correspondente ao volume equivalente de etanol de cana de açúcar, trans-ferindo para o Brasil as emissões correspondentes ao mesmo volume de etanol de-rivado do amido de milho. A substituição do fluxo físico pela transação de contratos é a fonte de economia proposta no título deste trabalho.

In an attempt to achieve energy independence, rural economic development, and greenhouse gas emissions reduction, the United States has turned to fuels derived from agriculture. The U.S. Congress and Environmental Protection Agency mandated the blending of biofuels into conventional gasoline until 2022 under the Renewable Fuel Standard. However, largely missing from the discussion of biofuels is their feasibility regarding environmental protection and end-use marketing to consumers. This thesis investigates the motive for biofuel mandates in the U.S., the irony in the EPA’s decision to back a resource-exhaustive fuel source, and the questionable ability of the U.S. to supply and consume greater volumes of biofuels in the transportation sector. Barriers to consumption are outlined as increased production costs and high market fuel prices, strong political backing of traditional energy sources, and environmental implications of production on ecosystems in certain regions of the United States. By analyzing Iowa and Texas as two biofuel-producing states held in high regards for biofuel production capacity—yet varying degrees of consumption—the feasibility of reaching federal biofuel mandates and promoting this alternative fuel is determined.