This research aimed to identify reliable economic data for predictive rent modelling in South Africa and Nigeria, as a contribution towards the growing debate on real estate rental forecasting from the African perspective. The data were obtained from the Iress Expert Database, Stat SA, the Central Bank of Nigeria database (CBN), the National Bureau of Statistics and World Bank. The South African economic data comprised time series for a fifteen-year period between Quarter 1 (Q1), 2003 and Quarter 4 (Q4), 2018. The Nigerian data comprised time series for a ten-year period between Quarter 1 (Q1), 2008 and Quarter 4 (Q4), 2018. The logit model was proposed among others as a macroeconomic modelling approach that captures the future rental directions based on the general economic movements and likely turning points. The model is particularly useful due to its reliance on macroeconomic and indirect/listed real estate data which are more readily available to real estate investment decision-makers. This study identified that coincident indicators and the exchange rate both have positive significant relationships with Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE) listed real estate as compelling indicators for the South African market. For the Nigerian listed real estate market indicator, the model also responded to interest rate, the consumer price index and the Treasury Bill Rate (TBR) as reliable indicators. In addition to this, analysis revealed the logit regression framework as an improvement to naïve or ordinary linear rent models in these emerging African real estate markets. The use of macroeconomic modelling proved to be a viable alternative to scarce comparable transaction data which serve as the bedrock of traditional real estate investment appraisal. Thus, a forecasting model for early detection of turning points in commercial real estate rental values in South Africa and Nigeria was developed for use in real estate investment decisions. The study concluded that not all economic indicators lead the listed real estate market. The relationship between the macroeconomy and listed real estate is largely significant, but this could be a positive or negative relationship. / Dissertation (MSc)--University of Pretoria, 2019. / African Real Estate Research (AFRER) for IREBS Foundation. / Construction Economics / MSc / Unrestricted

新古典理論探析土地利用區位之決定，純粹從資源與技術因素探討理性人的經濟行為，而忽略經濟活動中人的受限理性因素，以及制度運行的交易成本因素，致無法圓滿解釋殯葬用地區位之形成。本文將抗爭交易成本當成都市地租理論的自變項，嘗試修正Alonso等人的新古典競租模型，並建構適合殯葬設施用途的競租理論，進而分析陰宅之負擔地租能力提高是否入侵陽宅用地，及抗爭阻力大小與殯葬用地區位距市申心遠近之關係。經實證結果發現，由於高額抗爭交易成本之存在，縱使人們對於陰宅需求增加，陰宅之負擔地租能力提高，亦可能無法入侵陽宅用地，迫使開發者往更遠離市中心之區位設置殯葬設施。高額抗爭交易成本隱含制度供給不足現象，同時阻礙了土地資源利用之合理有效配置。其次，殯葬設施設置之抗爭阻力大小與地點距離並無必然關係，顯示忽略交易成本因素，而純粹以地點距離為區位選擇考量的公共政策之缺陷。上開分析不但能深化新古典都市地租理論之意涵，也將有助於對鄰避型設施設置區位問題之掌握與了解，提供改善鄰避衝突公共政策問題之理論基礎。 經藉由交易成本理論觀點，探析殯葬用地區位管理政策之結果，發現我國之政策設計主要係基於確保公共衛生及避免妨害生活環境，於主要法規規範設置地點及距離，而忽略抗爭交易成本之制度因素存在。至於相關法規規範土地使用分區，其禁止設置的分區較多，容許設置的分區較少，有待調整改進。源於上述政策缺陷，本文研擬改進構想，包括賦予抗爭與反抗爭之間更多自主協商空間；強化殯葬設施規劃之人間性與文化性；改革不合時宜之殯葬禮儀文化；以及地方政府應慎選適當地點劃設專用區，供設置經營殯葬設施使用等，如欲落實至應用層面，有待制定法律將改進構想納入其中。 本文共分七章，第一章為緒論、第二章由文獻評述中獲得啟發，以建立分析架構。第三章從殯葬用地區位選擇之發展歷史中，探究在都市發展的過程中，殯葬用地相對於非殯葬用地的區位變遷情形，及其影響此種變遷的制度或非制度因素。第四章檢視傳統新古典區位理論運用於探究殯葬用地區位之限制，並從新制度主義交易成本理論之修正觀點建立本文之研究假設。第五章依研究假設實證估算抗爭交易成本之存在，並比較分析各殯葬設施設置抗爭案例，以了解抗爭交易成本大小與殯葬設施區位之關係及其隱含的制度、經濟與規劃意義。第六章根據實證分析結果，並配套考量行政管制及文化等其他制度因素，進而嘗試研議提供政府從事殯葬用地規劃與管理之參考決策。第七章為結論與建議。 關鍵字：殯葬用地、區位、交易成本、新古典競租模型、新制度主義 / Neo-classicalism explores the decision of the location of the land use by mainly analyzing the human economic behavior through the factors of resources and techniques. However, the theory is not able to explain the formation of the location of funerary lands well because it neglects people are restricted by the factors of bounded rationality in the economic activities and the transaction costs when the institutions is functioning. The paper tries to amend the Neoclassical Bid-Rent Model of Alonso by defining the factor of resisting transaction costs as the independent variable of the urban land rent theory, and establishes the suitable Bid-Rent theory for firnerary facilities. Furthermore, the paper analyzes if enhancing the ability of affording the rent of the firnerary Land will invade the nonfunerary land, the relationship between the degree of resisting obstruction and the distance from the firnerary land to the CBD. Through the identification, the funerary land won't invade the nonfunerary land due to the high resisting transaction cost even increasing the demand and the ability of affording the rent of the funerary land, thus, it will force the developer to establish the funerary facilities far away CBD. High resisting transaction costs imply the lack of system supply and hinder the reasonable and efficient allocation of the land resource use simultaneously. This expose the defect of the public policy for location decision only considering the site distance but neglect the factor of the transaction cost. The above analysis will not only deeply elaborate the Neo-Classical Urban Land Theory, but will also be helpful to understand the issue of sitting NIMBY facilities and to provide the basis of the theory to improve the public policies of NIMBY conflicts. Exploring the administrative policy of location selection through the transaction costs theory,The paper find out that in order to preserve public health and prevent disorder of living environment, the law regulates the site and distance from populous or water conservation areas without considering the transaction costs. In addition, the zoning system concerning the construction of funerary facilities puts more emphasis on prohibition than permission, which needs to be improved. Owing to the policy limitations, the paper proposes the improvement of the policies as follows. First, leave more spaces for negotiation between resistance parties and developers. Second, design the funerary facilities to meet human and cultural needs. Third, reform the culture of funeral rites. Fourth, choose the suitable site and plan special zones to provide the suitable areas for construction and management of funerary facilities. The relevant laws have to be amended or to be established so that the policies suggestion will be put to practice. Keywords : Funerary Lands, Location, Transaction Costs, Neoclassical Bid-Rent Model, Neoinstitutionalism