For IT project managers, how to implement IT projects successfully is always an important issue due to high failure rate of traditional IT project implementation. When more and more enterprises start to develop systems under the new IT methodology in service oriented IT projects, it is essential to access risks coming with this new IT concept. In this research we aim to identify risk factors related to service oriented IT projects and then analyze the impact and rank of these risk factors. Adapted from the general IT project risk category proposed by Ewusi (1994), we propose 6 risk factors of service-oriented IT projects. The risk framework highlights the properties of business strategy, business Process, and workforce under on-demand business architecture. We use a customer service system to justify our research framework, applying the IBM’s concept of SIMM (service integrated maturity model). A pretest is first conducted with several IT experts who has implemented service oriented IT project experience, followed by a general survey. A binary logistic regression is used to testify the hypotheses. The result shows that essential risk factors that influence the adoption of service oriented system, from the highest to lowest, are insufficient technology planning, lack of expertise, ineffective project governance, and organizational misalignment. The findings help CIOs and project managers realize of the risks and the priority of these risks that have to be noticed and controlled when making decisions on service oriented systems adoption.

Effective fireground decision-making requires good situation awareness (SA) and appropriate selection from the information available to the incident commander. Individuals can display different information bias/scope in their view of the operational incident: either a liberal bias/scope towards accepting information as true with a risk of false alarm errors and/or a conservative bias/scope towards rejecting information with a risk of misses. Such decision - making bias/scope was examined over a series of five separate studies including operational fire fighters and incident commanders. The studies included a breathing apparatus (BA) exercise, two different table top operational incidents (domestic and commercial) and two exercises for flexible duty managers (FDM) in an assessable simulated fireground incident in 2012 and again in 2013. The studies were based on realistic incidents that both fire fighters and FDMs would be expected to respond to, in the final two studies each individual had to take over command and move towards a successful conclusion from an operational, environmental and social perspective. In all the studies, participants were required to answer true or false to a series of probe statements about the incident, which were analysed by a signal detection tool (QASA) to give a measure of actual situational awareness (ASA), perceived situational awareness (PSA) and bias/scope. The first exercise was a BA exercise undertaken to identify if bias was shown by FF’s when undertaking training, the data analysed by the QASA identified that most individuals displayed a high level of ASA about the incident, but also showed either a conservative bias/scope (with miss errors) or a liberal bias /scope (with false alarm errors). The results however also show that two individuals can appear to have similar ASA, but in fact still have very different bias/scope in regard to that knowledge. Once it was established that bias was identified this was developed using table top exercises as it allowed more participants and more control over undertaking the research within normal programmed training periods. The analysis of the two table top exercises showed ASA was high in both, but fire fighters perceived their PSA in a similar way if they had high confidence in one exercise they also had high confidence in the other exercise, or vice versa. However there was no significant correlation between the ASA scores and the PSA scores, with the pattern of bias/scope tendencies being differed across the two studies; with no significant correlation. In reviewing these results the identified difference in undertaking the 2 exercises was that in the second FF’s were familiar with the process and this allow a more relaxed approach, reducing pressure on the individual. While individuals showed bias patterns within the exercises undertaken, more pressurized exercises were identified to see if this bias was consistent for the individual when under pressure. Using the assessable incident commander exercises run by the FRS to test incident commander competence at a FDM level to undertake this. The exercises were used in 2012 and 2013 using the same individuals to compare their results, the outcome of these two simulated assessable fireground incident studies were; • for ASA: there was no significant correlation: r = -.120 and p= .623; • for PSA: there was a significant positive correlation: r =.577 and p = .012; • for bias/scope there was found a strongly positive significant correlation across the scores: r = .592 which is significant at the .008 level. The conclusion of the research is that individuals hold bias/scope tendencies and under pressure these tendencies are shown to be resting and will impact (condition) the individual’s decisions during periods of operational command during stressful conditions. The finding of bias/scope patterns is an important one that may have implications for understanding errors in incident ground decision - making. The finding of resting bias/scope patterns in FDM is an even more important one, which will have implications for understanding errors in incident ground decision - making and how we can help to reduce them. In semi structure interviews with FDMs who had undertaken the assessable exercises, they believed that knowing their bias was a first step to altering it to allow them to improve their decision making at pressurized incidents. Which supported the ultimate goal of the current research to further the understanding of bias/scope tendency, in order to support the training of effective fireground decision - making.

This paper uses the Dutch panel data from LISS, Longitudinal Internet Studies for the Social Science in trying to establish if a relationship between individuals’ risk propensity and job search activity is present. When looking at employed and unemployed job seekers jointly, a positive significant relationship is present. Looking at these groups separately shows that the relationship is driven by employed job seekers. No relationship for unemployed job seekers can be identified when being looked at separate. However, when taking into account possible biases from changes in risk propensity over time as well as the classification of actively searching individuals, no relationship is present at all. We hence are cautious towards the significant estimates received that potentially could suffer from biases. Further studies should be made with a bigger sample of individuals and a continuously updated measure of risk propensity to minimizing potential bias.

by Chan Pui Man. / Thesis (M.B.A.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 1996. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 108-111). / ABSTRACT --- p.II / TABLE OF CONTENTS --- p.III / ACKNOWLEDGEMENT --- p.VI / Chapter I. --- INTRODUCTION --- p.1 / Chapter II. --- LITERATURE REVIEW --- p.4 / Impact due to Deregulation --- p.5 / Impact due to Globalization --- p.5 / Impact due to Securitization --- p.6 / Impact due to Institutionalisation --- p.6 / Impact due to Computerisation --- p.7 / Chapter III. --- CONCEPT: MANAGEMENT OF RISK --- p.8 / Definition of Risk --- p.9 / Risk Analysis --- p.10 / Risk Assessment --- p.10 / Risk Measurement --- p.10 / Risk Management --- p.11 / Chapter IV. --- TYPE OF RISK --- p.13 / Market/Capital Risk --- p.14 / Reinvestment Risk --- p.15 / Interest Rate Risk --- p.16 / Credit Risk --- p.17 / Liquidity or Funding Risk --- p.18 / Currency and Foreign Exchange Risk --- p.19 / Inflation Risk --- p.19 / Operations Risk --- p.20 / Legal Risk --- p.20 / Political Risk --- p.21 / Systemic Risk --- p.22 / Portfolio Risk --- p.22 / Control Risk --- p.23 / Settlement Risk --- p.23 / Country Risk --- p.24 / Underwriting Risk --- p.24 / Residual or Moral Risk --- p.24 / Strategy Risk and Environment Risk --- p.25 / Chapter V. --- MEASURING CHANGING RISK --- p.26 / Historical Estimates --- p.28 / Non-parametric Methods --- p.29 / Parametric Methods --- p.30 / Chapter VI. --- EVOLUTION OF RISK ESTIMATION --- p.35 / Chapter VII. --- APPLYING PORTFOLIO THEORY INTO RISK ANALYSIS --- p.41 / Modelling Bank Risk --- p.43 / Identification of linkages between an individual loan and bank's overall risk profile --- p.43 / Distribution of expected values --- p.44 / Portfolio expected value --- p.44 / Scenario Analysis and Formation of Loan Risk Measurement --- p.45 / Subsystem --- p.45 / Formation of an Integrated Risk Measurement --- p.45 / Active Management of Portfolio Risk --- p.49 / Chapter VIII. --- RISK ANALYSIS OF INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENT --- p.51 / Discounted-Cash-Flow Analysis --- p.51 / Net Present Value Approach --- p.51 / Internal Rate of Return Approach --- p.54 / Break-even Probability Analysis --- p.55 / Certainty-Equivalent Method --- p.56 / Chapter IX. --- CONSTRUCTING A MODEL FOR RISK ASSESSMENT --- p.58 / "Set up a Model to Estimate ""Capital at Risk""" --- p.58 / Obey the Minimum Standards --- p.60 / Audit and Verify the Model --- p.62 / Chapter X. --- METHODOLOGIES OF RISK MEASUREMENT / Measuring Market Risk : J P Morgan Risk Management Methodology - RiskMetrics´ёØ --- p.64 / Statistical Analysis of Returns and Risk --- p.66 / Market Moves and Locally Gaussian Processes --- p.72 / Stochastic Volatility --- p.72 / Risk and Optionality --- p.73 / Mapping and Term Structure of Interest Rates --- p.73 / Measuring Position Risk --- p.75 / The Simplified Portfolio Approach --- p.77 / The Comprehensive Approach --- p.81 / The Building-Block Approach --- p.83 / Chapter XI. --- ITEMS INVOLVED IN RISK MANAGEMENT --- p.85 / Management Control --- p.35 / Constructing Valuation Methodology --- p.90 / Contents of Reporting --- p.92 / Evaluation of Risk --- p.93 / Counterparty Relationships --- p.93 / Chapter XII. --- AFTERTHOUGHT --- p.95 / APPENDIX --- p.98 / BIBLIOGRAPHY --- p.108

The nature of how we make judgments has received a great deal of attention in the last few decades. Risk communication research has indicated that risk-related messages can elicit affective responses in audiences, which can then have a significant impact on how such audiences judge risk in general. Using a 2 x 2 between-subjects factorial design, this study found that, contrary to Johnson and Tversky's (1983) findings, presenting narratives about lethal risk does not influence readers' judgments about the frequency that risks occur, nor do such narratives influence participant worry levels about the lethal risks, more generally. Additionally, the inclusion of an image alongside both positively and negatively valenced narratives demonstrated no effect on frequency estimates or worry levels. These experimental conditions, although revealing no significant effects, did illuminate the relationship between judgments of risk frequency and corresponding worry levels. Implications for future research on affect and judgments of risk, as well as the relationship between judgments of control and risk assessments, are discussed.

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The investment management industry has proven to be a fertile ground for theoretical and empirical research over the past forty years, particularly in relation to the nature and quantification of risk. However, the dominance of the U.S. industry has meant that much of the academic research has focused on the U.S. market. This thesis investigates aspects of investment risk using alternative data to that used in much of the prior published research. This thesis contains an extensive analysis of aspects of risk related to both the demand side and the supply side of the managed funds market in Australia. Among the demand side characteristics, attitudes towards risk and their impact on asset allocation decisions will be an important determinant of investors' financial well-being, particularly in retirement. Accordingly, the first part of the thesis examines the financial risk tolerance of investors, exploring the relationship between subjective financial risk tolerance and a range of demographic characteristics that are widely used as a basis for heuristically derived estimates of investors' attitudes towards financial risk. The second part of the thesis contains an analysis of the supply side of the industry, focusing on risk-shifting behavior by investment fund managers. Since the time when performance and risk-shifting behavior of fund managers was first put under the spotlight 40 years ago, it is possible to identify an evolving strand in the research where performance assessment is examined within the framework of the principal-agent literature. One focus that has emerged in this literature is the adaption of the tournament model to the analysis of investment manager behavior, wherein it is hypothesized that fund managers who were interim losers were likely to increase fund volatility in the latter part of the assessment period to a greater extent than interim winners. Against this background, the second part of the thesis examines risk-shifting behavior by Australian fund managers. Both the ability of fund managers to time the market and the applicability of the tournament model of funds management to a segment of the Australian

Bakgrund:  På senare år sparar nästan alla svenskar mer aktivt och den positiva utvecklingen på aktier har gjort att allt fler aktiesparare lockats in i aktiemarknaden. Detta har bidragit till att aktier blivit den främsta tillgången för sparare. Ägandet av aktier är förknippat med har medfört flertalet risker då det finns en risk att aktiekurserna kan falla. Flertalet investerare har en diffus uppfattning om vilka risker som tas. Identifierar aktiespararen riskerna med aktiesparandet så förbättras förutsättningarna för en bra avkastning. Människor föredrar att undvika risk olika och anledningen till varför människor utsätter sig för en risk är för att de vill bli framgångsrika genom att de vill få en bra avkastning. För att detta ska bli möjligt är det viktigt att aktiespararen hanterar riskerna förknippade med aktiehandeln vilket kan ske om att aktiespararna använder regler. Syfte:  Syftet med studien är att få en förståelse för hur aktiesparare i praktiken använder sig av handlingsreglerna för att förhålla sig till riskerna som är förknippade med aktiehandeln. Vi har också för avsikt att undersöka om det finns ett samband mellan hur frekvent aktiespararna använder sig av handlingsreglerna beroende på deras riskbenägenhet, ålder och kön. Metod:  I studien har vi använt en kvantitativ forskningsansats med en deduktiv ansats som vetenskaplig metod. Empirisk data har insamlats genom enkätundersökningar. Slutsats:  Aktiespararna har ett förhållningssätt till samtliga handlingsregler för att förhålla sig till riskerna förknippade med aktiehandeln. Det finns inte ett samband att aggressiva aktiesparare använder handlingsreglerna mindre frekvent i förhållande till balanserade och försiktiga aktiesparare. Det finns inte ett samband att försiktiga aktiesparare använder handlingsreglerna mer frekvent i förhållande till aggressiva och balanserade aktiesparare. Det finns inte ett samband att aktiesparare i åldern 18-35 använder handlingsreglerna mindre frekvent i förhållande till aktiesparare i åldern 36-50 och 51+. Det finns ett samband att män använder handlingsreglerna mer frekvent i förhållande till kvinnor.

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