Background. In the field of risk management, focusing on digital infrastructure, there is an uncertainty about which methods and algorithms are relevant and correct. Behind this uncertainty lies a need for testing and evaluation of different risk management analysis methods in order to determine how effective they are in relation to each other. Purpose. The purpose of this thesis is to manufacture a reproducible and universal method of comparison between risk management analysis methods. This is based on the need to compare two risk assessment analysis methods. One method relies solely on impact information and the other expands on that concept by also utilizing information about the network environment. Method. A network is modeled into a scenario. A risk assessment is conducted on the scenario by risk assessment experts which will be used as the correct solution. The tested risk management analysis methods are applied to the scenario and the results are compared with the expert risk assessment. The distance between the assessments are measured with Mean Square Error; A smaller distance between one assessment and the experts assessment indicates that it is more correct. Result. The result shows that it is possible to reproducibly compare risk management analysis methods by comparing the respective output with an established truth. The conducted comparison shows that a method that use network environment data is capable of producing a more correct assessment than one which simply uses impact data. Conclusion. A scenario based approach to compare risk management analysis methods for risk assessment has been proven effective.

In 2015, The OECD released an 15 point action plan to combat base erosion and profit shifting (BEPS). Amongst those actions is action 13 which deals with the implementation of Country-by-Country (CbC) reporting on Multinational Enterprises (MNE). Even though South Africa is not an OECD member, it adopted the implementation by enacting CbC reporting into law in December 2016. CbC reports give an overview of how local entities fit into their large group structure of the MNE which in turn will increase the tax transparency in the jurisdictions it operates from. Therefore, CbC Reports can be a great tool for tax administrations to assess tax risk. CbC reports are exchanged electronically between tax payer and tax administration as well as between different tax administrations of the different jurisdictions, thus the use of a digitalised system is of high importance as it will ultimately lead to better tax transparency. This approach of this work is qualitative in nature and the OECDs guidelines and corresponding sections in South Africa‘s Income Tax Act were analysed. Throughout this study South Africa and India‘s tax administrations are being compared, with recommendations drawn from the Indian tax administration. This study addresses the use of CbC Reports in the risk assessment procedure as well as the current tax risk assessment procedures in both countries. The study goes further by explaining the concept of digitalisation and then gauges the digital competence of South Africa‘s and India‘s tax administration according to an gauge set out by EY. There are numerous challenges that are a result of digitalisation of the tax administration. The findings of study prove that South Africa has already made progress towards a digitalised tax administration however there is room for improvement. Furthermore, as the tax administration progress, CbC reports will become more effective as a risk assessment tool. Lastly, the study imparts that even with the challenges that digitalisation of the tax administration brings about, the benefit of a digital tax administration providing tax transparency will be able to overcome these challenges. / Mini Dissertation (MPhil (International Taxation))--University of Pretoria, 2020. / pt2021 / Taxation / MPhil (International Taxation) / Unrestricted

El texto completo de este trabajo no está disponible en el Repositorio Académico UPC por restricciones de la casa editorial donde ha sido publicado. / Peru is located in a high seismicity region, since is on the subduction zone between the tectonic plates of Nazca and South American, both belonging to the Pacific's Ring of Fire. Peru is a developing country, so it is of the utmost importance that the Peruvian Government is prepared to assist the thousands of casualties that may be in the face of an important seismic event. Hence seismic risk assessment of essential buildings such as schools and hospitals is necessary for structural reinforcement projects in this type of infrastructure. In this scientific article, it is shown how vulnerable the public schools of the district of San Juan de Miraflores in the city of Lima are to a seismic event. Hence FEMA P-154 Rapid Visual Screening methodology was used to assess actual condition of school infrastructure which can be used as refuge for casualties or local headquarters to emergency response. The results of the research conclude that most educational buildings present a high seismic risk and do not meet the requirements of post-earthquake use as required by the Peruvian Seismic Design Building Code.

Broad-scale niche models are good for examining the potential for invasive species occurrences, but can fall short in providing managers with site-specific locations for monitoring. Using Oklahoma as an example, where invasive bighead carp (Hypophthalmichthys nobilis) are established in certain reservoirs, but predicted to be widely distributed based on broad-scale niche models, we cast bighead carp reproductive ecology in a site-specific geospatial framework to determine their potential establishment in additional reservoirs. Because bighead carp require large, long free-flowing rivers with suitable hydrology for reproduction but can persist in reservoirs, we considered reservoir tributaries with mean annual daily discharge ≥8.5 cubic meters per second (m3/s) and quantified the length of their unimpeded portions. In contrast to published broad-scale niche models that identified nearly the entire state as susceptible to invasion, our site-specific models showed that few reservoirs in Oklahoma (N = 9) were suitable for bighead carp establishment. Moreover, this method was rapid and identified sites that could be prioritized for increased study or scrutiny. Our results highlight the importance of considering the environmental characteristics of individual sites, which is often the level at which management efforts are implemented when assessing susceptibility to invasion.

Patients with osteoporosis have an increased risk of sustaining fractures because of the low bone mineral density (BMD) and altered bone micro-architecture which are characteristic features of the disease. Although a good correlation exists between BMD and fracture risks, many other factors influence this relationship. While there is consensus that patients with osteoporosis should be investigated and treated, the issue is much less clear for patients with osteopenia. Because osteopenia is so prevalent, it would be unrealistic to treat all patients with this condition. Therefore, there is a need to identify those patients who are at risk of sustaining a fracture and would benefit most from the available therapy. Providing treatment to the appropriate risk group would not only reduce the number of fractures, but could also reduce the adverse effects associated with treatment, as treating patients earlier could shorten the treatment time. The availability of tools to select patients at risk of fracture should change the impact of the disease.

The World Health Organization fracture risk assessment tool (FRAX) uses clinical risk factors to predict the patient's 10-yr probability of sustaining a hip or other major osteoporosis-related fracture. Inclusion of the femoral neck T-score is optional in the calculation. We evaluated the impact of including the T-score in the calculation of fracture risk and resultant treatment recommendation. We retrospectively reviewed charts of 180 white women scanned on a Hologic dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA). FRAX scores were calculated with T-scores (FRAX+) and without T-scores (FRAX-). We compared the National Osteoporosis Foundation (NOF) treatment recommendations (≥20% risk of a major osteoporotic fracture or ≥3% risk of hip fracture for osteopenic patients) between FRAX+ and FRAX- scores. Agreement between FRAX+ and FRAX- was 89.4%. Disagreement occurred in 2 distinct subgroups of patients (10.6% of cases), that is, FRAX+ scores exceeded the NOF recommended treatment thresholds and FRAX- scores did not, or vice versa. One subgroup comprised older patients with normal T-scores for whom FRAX- scores exceeded the treatment threshold. The second subgroup comprised younger patients with high body mass index (BMI) and low T-scores for whom FRAX- scores did not exceed the treatment threshold. FRAX scores generated without T-scores may lead to treatment recommendations for patients who have normal bone mineral density and no treatment recommendations for patients who have osteoporosis. T-scores should be used for optimal application of FRAX.

Most sex offenders appear to desist from sexual and other violent offending; however, research on this population has historically focused more on the characteristics of individuals who persist offending versus those who desist from offending. The present study examined change patterns of 563 child sexual abusers’ scores on the Sex Offender Treatment Intervention and Progress Scale, a dynamic risk measure, at three points of time over 2 years. Individuals who did versus did not commit a new serious offense, defined as a new sexual or other violent offense, at 5-year follow-up were contrasted. Desisters demonstrated most changes during their first year in treatment, whereas change among persisters more often occurred during their second year in treatment. All classes of offenders made gains in addressing dynamic risk related to sexually specific needs, whereas desisters made significantly greater gains in social stability needs. Findings are discussed in light of treatment dose allocation and community reentry needs.

In recent years, the studies of emerging contaminants have received growing concerns due to their ambiguous fate and unclear effect to the water environment, aquatic organisms or even human. With the development of the analytical techniques, the increase detection rate of emerging contaminants is at a rapid pace that many of their fates and influence are still pending investigation. In this work, a group of organic UV filters, which is one of the vital categories of emerging contaminants are monitored. Organic UV filters, used as the major components in not only sunscreens but also other cosmetics products, have a widespread usage and large production volume for more than 80 years, causing the massive input towards the aquatic environment. To first investigate their environmental behaviours and impacts, the regional distribution of total nine commonly used organic UV filters was monitored along the southeast coastline of Shenzhen, which is the most rapid developing city in China with large population with the consideration of seasonal variation. In addition, the Shenzhen reservoirs, as the major sources of drinking water in Shenzhen, was also monitored together with the city tap water. The results indicated the extensive distribution of certain kinds of UV filters with obvious seasonal pattern, which may cause medium to high risk to aquatic organisms. And the incomplete removal of them in drinking water supply system resulting trace amount of UV filters to be detected in city tap water, may cause a general exposure of these UV filters towards all populations. Therefore, a quantitative analytical method for simultaneous detecting multiple classes UV filters in human urine samples has been developed and applied on more than 100 real samples for determining internal exposure. Similar UV filters were also detected in human urine samples compared with surface water while one of the most commonly used organic UV filters, Ethylhexyl methoxycinnamate exhibited much lower detection rate and concentration in human urine. Then, biotransformation of Ethylhexyl methoxycinnamate was examined in rats for the purpose of selecting suitable metabolites as exposure biomarkers. Several metabolites have been identified in urine and plasma by UHPLC-QTOF-MS. Two of its metabolites, 4-methoxycinnamic acid and 4' -methoxyacetophenone, were unambiguously identified by comparing with commercial standard. Excretion trend of Ethylhexyl methoxycinnamate and its two metabolites confirmed that most of the parent compound were quickly metabolized and excreted through urine samples. Herein, these three targeted compounds were further evaluated in two populations - female university students and school-aged children. Although Ethylhexyl methoxycinnamate was not detected in 49 female university students, significant internal correlations were discovered among these three analytes in school-aged students and extensive detection of metabolites instead of parent compound was also confirmed. The third part of this thesis is to comprehensively monitor the internal exposure of UV filters and their metabolites, and also discover their potential adverse health impacts - obesity in Shanghai children and adolescents. Urinary concentration of certain kinds of UV filters were significantly higher in girls than in boys. However, further associations have been found with urinary Ethylhexyl methoxycinnamate concentration and reduced adiposity outcomes only in boys, indicating it may have the potential to influence the metabolism in male population during growing stage. In short, a complete study of organic UV filters is presented in this thesis, from their environmental occurrence to metabolism in animal models, and finally to human exposure and potential health impacts. The widespread exposure and significant associations with adiposity outcomes can form a solid base for future comprehensive risk assessment of UV filters towards human health

Flood risk analysis is the instrument for utility managers to create a sound strategy and adaptation plans into their communities. Local municipalities are being continuously challenged every year by the impacts of climate change. The need to develop a screening tool to analyze watersheds and find risk areas is the goal of this research. Open source high-quality data is allowing climate scientists to create innovative ways to study watersheds when performing spatial analysis for inundation areas. The development procedures for a screening tool involved combining readily available data on topography, groundwater, surface water, tidal information for coastal communities, soils, open space, and rainfall data. All efforts to help develop a planning level framework that allows investigators to target the optimal set of outcomes for a given community. This framework appears to be viable across cities that may be inundated with water due to sea-level rise, rainfall, runoff upstream, and other natural events. / Includes bibliography. / Thesis (M.S.)--Florida Atlantic University, 2020. / FAU Electronic Theses and Dissertations Collection

Background: Muscle, joint and bone injuries affect mobility and stability, which in turn limits physical activity. Screening tests such as the Functional Movement Screen (FMS) are used to assess an individual’s mobility and stability to determine whether any movement dysfunctions exist. Screening tests aim to establish an individual’s injury risk with the goal of guiding an intervention program. The Evaluation of Mobility Screen (EMS) is a screening test that has been developed at the Sports Science Institute of South Africa. The EMS has been adapted from the FMS by exchanging the Rotatory Stability test for the Seated Rotation test. The current use of screening tools is limited because of the lack of normative data sets that represent the diversity of age, gender and physical activity levels in the general population. Most current published data represent athletes or younger populations. By establishing the relationship between screening outcomes and variables such as age, gender and physical activity level, the effectiveness of screening tests may be improved. Aim: To describe associations between EMS scores for males and females across different age groups and levels of physical activity. Objective: To evaluate and compare differences in EMS scores relating to age, gender and physical activity levels. Methods: This was a quantitative study, with a descriptive, correlational design. The sample consisted of 135 males and 127 females between the ages of 18 and 60. The EMS data were collected at the HighPerformance Centre, in the Sports Science Institute of South Africa, Cape Town. Results: There was no difference between the total scores of males and females (median = 17). The two youngest groups (20-30 and 31-40 years) scored the highest (median = 17), while the oldest group (51-60 years) scored the lowest (median = 15). Gender had a significant effect (p < 0.05) on five subtests (Single Leg Hurdle, Shoulder Mobility, Asymmetric Leg Raise, Stability Push Up and Seated Rotation). Age had a significant effect (p < 0.05) on three subtests (Overhead Squat, Single Leg, Hurdle Split Squat). Physical activity level had a significant effect (p < 0.05) with two subtests (Single leg Hurdle and Stability Push Up). Conclusion: Gender, Age and Physical Activity are associated with changes in EMS scores. EMS total scores declined as age increased. While the total scores remain similar between genders, there were clear variations within the different subtests. The oldest participants (51-60 year) scored the lowest throughout all subtests. Males scored higher in the strength components, while females scored higher in the flexibility components. Physical activity levels did not have a clear pattern as expected but still demonstrated association with two subtests. The results add to the sentiment that the focus should move away from the composite scoring system, and towards analyzing individual subtest scores. Future studies should also investigate if subtest scores can be improved by targeted intervention programs.