Assessing risk had always been the key focus when it comes to recidivism. Using risk assessment instruments, it is possible to predict the outcome of recidivism dichotomously. These measures, however, can only predict between 70-80 percent of validity, and they specify only levels of risk (low-medium-high), but not time. Therefore, the aim of this study is to define time of recidivism to supplement risk assessment with a possible new actuarial approach and fill out gaps in the existing literature. To do so a systematic literature review was conducted with a controlled search on exact time points. All the fourteen studies resulted in the final model were: published in the past 20 years, had some connection to time and were quantitative. The results highlighted the importance of the first year, especially the first half of the year as the most critical period regarding recidivism. Three different time periods were identified: (1) the end of the first month; (2) between the second and the third; (3) at the end of the 6th. Consequently, it might be beneficial to target these critical periods with more intense supervision/intervention in order to decrease the likelihood of recidivism.

<p>Retail environments are critical transmission points for <i>Listeria monocytogenes</i> to humans. Past studies have shown <i>L. monocytogenes</i> contamination varies widely across retail environments. <i>L. monocytogenes</i> can transmit among environmental surfaces and subsequently from environment to food via cross-contamination. Modified SSOPs (sanitation standard operating procedures) have been shown to have limited impact on reducing <i>L. monocytogenes</i> prevalence in retail deli environments. Food safety culture and climate, such as beliefs, values, and hygiene behaviors, have been identified as factors impacting food safety performance and microbial outputs. Handwashing and its compliance are among the most prominent personal hygiene aspects subjected to investigation in the past decade, illustrating hygiene behavior as a risk factor and an important consideration to ensure food safety. Additionally, effective management and well-designed infrastructure, such as vertical and lateral communication, employees’ training, accountability, and equipment designed to prevent cross-contamination, have also been described as critical contributors to a sustainable food safety program. However, given such a deadly foodborne pathogen as <i>L. monocytogenes</i>, the correlation between food safety culture and its prevalence remains unknown. We hypothesized that there was a relationship among food safety culture management, infrastructure, and <i>L. monocytogenes</i> prevalence at retail. Our goal is to identify additional risk factors on <i>L. monocytogenes </i>control, develop feasible recommendations, and direct resources to enhance food safety. </p> <p>In the present dissertation, we developed and implemented a predictive risk model, along with employee- and management-implemented SSOPs, in 50 deli establishments across six U.S. states to evaluate and control <i>L. monocytogenes</i> contamination risk and prevalence (Chapter 2). The predictive risk model, based on logistic regression, uses five environmental sites to predict <i>L. monocytogenes</i> prevalence in the entire deli environment. It identified 13 high-risk stores, seven of which were confirmed during subsequent monthly sampling. We found that deep clean intervention reduced <i>L. monocytogenes </i>prevalence on non-food contact surfaces both immediately after the intervention and during follow-up, with marginal significance (α_adj=0.0125). The employee- and management-implemented deep clean can control <i>L. monocytogenes</i> prevalence in retail delis; the predictive risk model, though conservative, will require further validations and can be useful for surveillance purposes. </p> <p>Complementary to the above study, we tackled the <i>L. monocytogenes</i> challenge via food safety culture and climate approach (Chapter 3). Concurrently to the monthly environmental sampling, we distributed food safety culture and climate survey to the 50 stores, with one manager and up to five associates from each establishment, over a 12-month period and overlapped with before, after, and follow-up deep clean. We found that stores with lower <i>L. monocytogenes</i> contamination risk had better food safety culture, including greater sense of commitment to food safety program (p_adj=0.0317) and more complete training (p_adj=0.0117). Deep clean improved managers’ (p_adj=0.0243) and associates’ (p_adj=0.0057) commitment to food safety. This study indicates that food safety culture and climate are crucial component in building a viable, sustainable food safety program. </p> <p>Another survey tool was used to evaluate infrastructure designs, management strategies, and sanitation practices in relation to <i>L. monocytogenes</i> control in retail produce environments (Chapter 4). We distributed the survey to 30 retail produce departments across seven U.S. states. Hand hygiene, minimizing cross-contamination, and maximizing equipment cleanability were the most prominent factors in <i>L. monocytogenes</i> control.</p>

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京都大学 / 0048 / 新制・論文博士 / 博士(医学) / 乙第13385号 / 論医博第2217号 / 新制||医||1048(附属図書館) / 京都大学大学院医学研究科医学専攻 / (主査)教授 古川 壽亮, 教授 松村 由美, 教授 中山 健夫 / 学位規則第4条第2項該当 / Doctor of Medical Science / Kyoto University / DFAM

CASCADE 2001 is a multi-basin flood routing program used in areas of flat terrain. CASCADE was used for different situational elements including the Florida Keys, Broward County, and Pensacola. The goal for this screening tool was to create flood inundation watershed mapping for the Florida Division of Emergency Management (FDEM). After showing the risks of flooding that could occur in Florida, the thought of how useful CASCADE can be in other environmental conditions. The Rocky Mountains were selected to show the effect of flood inundation that can be mirrored in an opposite condition from prior experimentation. We chose to test this program in an area with mountainous terrain like the region of Grand Lake, Colorado. Rainfall, in collaboration with groundwater tables, ground soil storage and topography have the most effect on the CASCADE modeling program. Effects that were not used in the Florida models but added for Grand Lake included snowmelt. Snowmelt in the Rocky Mountains affects the flow of the Colorado River causing excess discharge that flows throughout the valleys and into Shadow Mountain Lake. WINSRM was a recommended model that could be used to simulate snowmelt during different months of Colorado’s spring season. The effects of snowmelt and rainfall flooding can be compared in relation to each other. / Includes bibliography. / Thesis (M.S.)--Florida Atlantic University, 2021. / FAU Electronic Theses and Dissertations Collection

Coastal basins are particularly vulnerable to flood under multivariable conditions, such as heavy precipitation, high sea levels, tropical storm surge and rainstorms. These conditions should be considered to assess and manage flood risk better. In this research, a means to develop a watershed level screening tool to identify areas with potential for flooding due to high tides, rainfall events, sea level rise and combinations of all the cases was developed and compared to FEMA maps. The goal of the screening tool is part of a larger effort with respect to watersheds funded by the Florida Division of Emergency Management to enable local communities to reduce flood insurance costs through mitigation and resiliency efforts by means of risk assessment was undertaken. For this purpose, readily available data on topography, ground, and surface water elevations, tidal data for coastal communities, soils, and rainfall data were collected from the South Florida water management district, USGS, and NOAA. Firstly, using elevation data, soil data, and the Spatial Analyst tool, Arc-Hydro tools of ArcGIS, the drainage network, and soil storage capacity were determined. These results and rainfall data acted as inputs for Cascade to calculate the headwater height for all the cases for the selected basins. Using these headwater heights, several different probabilities of inundation were determined. This study will help manage and mitigate vulnerable areas and act as a tool to permit local agencies to develop means to address high-risk properties. / Includes bibliography. / Thesis (MS)--Florida Atlantic University, 2021. / FAU Electronic Theses and Dissertations Collection

Flooding can impact a community's social, cultural, environmental, and economic resources; therefore, generating a sound, science-based, long-term decision to improve resiliency is critical for future prosperity and growth. Developing watershed management plans is essential in assisting local communities in reducing flood insurance costs through mitigation and resiliency efforts. This effort, specifically for this report, will focus on the Pensacola Watershed Basin and the development procedures to assess the risks of flooding and storm surges. Utilizing readily available data on topography, ground surface water elevations, tidal data for coastal communities, open space, and rainfall, a framework was developed to facilitate flood risk assessments under various conditions. Such knowledge allows communities to properly prepare and prevent major damages during times of high flooding, such as tropical storms and hurricanes. / Includes bibliography. / Thesis (MURP)--Florida Atlantic University, 2021. / FAU Electronic Theses and Dissertations Collection

The diploma thesis deals with the application of the risk analysis method for environmental impact assessment of a business entity. In the introduction of the theoretical part, an environmental review is carried out, focusing on the approach of the Slovak Republic, followed by theoretical background on environmental management, and in the end of the first part there is a survey of risk identification methods. The analytical part presents the system of environmental management in the company. After evaluating the current state, the thesis proposes its own proposals as preventive measures, which contribute to more effective management of environmental pollution risk.

Outside to the wide range of potential benefits, the use of nanomaterials can endanger human health and the environment. This diploma thesis presents the results of pilot measurements, where the exposure of nanoparticles was monitored. Based on a literature research a suitable method for measurement was the three-stage OECD model. Based on this model, measurements were performed in three welding workplaces, where nanoparticles are produced incidentally. The measurement consisted of collecting information and measuring the concentration of nanoparticles in the workplace, where data collection was focused only on inhalation exposure. During welding, 0.3 m size particles are produced and their concentration is strongly influenced by the welding material, type of welding and suction. The particles are amorphous in terms of morphology and contain manganese, iron and silicon, which can cause neurodegenerative diseases. Furthermore, the results indicate the importance of monitoring oral exposure.

Due to the increased scrutiny of construction costs for infrastructure projects by the public and legislators, it is becoming increasing important for project developers to prepare accurate conceptual cost estimates for transportation tunnel projects at the feasibility stage to aid in making investment decisions. Past studies have emphasized that tunnel-project costs have been significantly underestimated, and cost uncertainties and risks have been identified as the cause of cost under or overestimation. A broad understanding of the factors that contribute to cost underestimation is important as it enables researchers and estimators to develop appropriate functions, evaluate, and implement them to produce realistic cost estimates. This study was aimed at developing parametric cost estimation functions and quantifying their risks for transportation tunnel projects. A comprehensive background study of more than 39 published articles on transportation tunnel infrastructure projects was conducted through a systematic literature review and 40 key estimating parameters that may impact project costs and the associated project logistics were identified. Data from completed tunnel projects were collected and used to develop the parametric cost equations. Exploratory analyses were first performed to discover the correlations among tunnel costs and tunnel cost parameters/drivers. The purpose of this effort was to assess if a relationship existed between tunnel variables and tunnel project cost estimates. Parametric cost estimation functions were then developed for different tunnel applications. There has been no comprehensive study performed to date to develop parametric cost estimation functions that incorporated risk and uncertainty for transportation tunnel projects. Two representative sample case studies were performed and Monte Carlo simulation was used to quantify the associated risks. The results from the case studies illustrate the need to use appropriate techniques to simulate tunnel costs and quantify the risks associated with the estimates. The findings of the study provide a methodology to estimate the costs of transportation tunnels and quantify the uncertainties and risks associated with the costs. The methodology developed in this research could help reduce the incidence of project cost underestimation and alleviate some of the controversies surrounding cost overruns in transportation tunnel projects.