On a basis of the development of credit risk models, this study aims to help managers of financial institutions understand the development of the models so as to develop their own model that will provide objective and reasonable references for banks to decide the lending rate. Furthermore, this study used "Utilization of Long-Term Funding" as the object and studied individual cases of approved loans. By using risk neutral evaluation method to study the difference between the lending rate of loans and the risk-free interest rate of public bonds, to extract implied probabilities of default and required credit risk premiums form actual market data on interest rates. These credit risk premiums of model were used to be compared with the actual markups of banks and the results are as follows: 1.Most values stated in credit risk premium are lower than the actual markups for banks usually consider the burden of other capital costs and the factor of liquidity premium when they set the rating for markup. 2.After a loan is approved, the assumed recovery rate upon application will adjust according to the market value of the collateral. When the recovery rate decreases, the expected loss rate on the loan will gradually increase. Moreover, the higher the assumed recovery rate, the larger the corrected expected loss rate after the loan is approved. 3.In recent years, the non-performing rate for banks in Taiwan has reached a record high. Even though banks face less credit risks when they make long-term loans in "Utilization of Long-Term Funding", the probability of default has increased in recent years, which has contributed to the increase of expected loss rate on the long-term loan. In sum, banks still face credits risks that should not be ignored when they manage long-term loans. Thus, it is necessary to improve loan review to enhance the quality of loans and to increase the efficiency of utilization of long-term fund.

This research aims to identify the determinants of the ex-ante risk premium required by Italian private equity funds (PEFs) when valuing privately-held target companies. In theory, perceived risk is a key driver of expected returns and anticipated value, but: "Although PE (private equity) has experienced rapid growth, the risk and return profile of this asset class is not well understood." (Jegadeesh et al., 2009). Some papers have attempted to assess the ex post returns pioneered by Lerner & Gompers (1997). Yet such studies reveal both contradictory conclusions and hitherto inexplicable phenomena: what some authors call the 'private equity premium puzzle' (Moskowitz & Jorgensen, 2000). Such contradictory conclusions include a wide spread of abnormal realized returns ranging from -6% (Phalippou & Gottschalg, 2009) to +32% (Cochrane, 2005). In this research, the perceived risk and expected return drivers refer not to the ex-post realized return that PEF investors actually achieve, but to the required return the PEF hopes to gain from the target investment. At this stage, two important indicators adopted in PEF parlance have to be differentiated: (i) the Expected IRR (E.IRR) and (ii) the Threshold IRR (T.IRR). The first is the IRR as an output of a business plan, and the second assesses the return expected by PEFs according to the risk perceived in the business plan. Put simply, these are respectively, the anticipated return and the (risk-adjusted) required return. The study of the T.IRR is one of the main contributions of this thesis since it has never been studied before by academia as an indicator of the ex-ante perceived risk of a PEF target company. This is partly due to two important reasons. First, most previous papers examine ex-post performance, and only a few (e.g. Manigart et al., 2002), try to assess return expectations and risk perceptions using an ex-ante perspective. Second, most of the prior studies are quantitative and try to measure statistical effects captured by the ex-post IRR. By studying 26 deals (in 13 Italian PEFs) in detail (qualitatively and quantitatively), this research project has been able to observe how PEFs assess risk and estimate the T.IRR. The research project reveals that PEFs apply neither rational-based models nor explicit formulae to assess risk exante. By observing a set of phenomena unique to the PEF sector (fees effect, investment speed effect, persistence effect, money-chasing deal phenomenon, illiquidity effect, etc) whose existence has been suggested by many recent papers, this thesis has been able to propose an adjusted version of the three-factor model of Fama and French (1993, 1995) to assess risk. The application of a quasi-rational-based asset pricing model to guide PEFs assessments is also an important contribution of this thesis. In fact, Franzoni, Nowak and Phalippou (2010), claim to be the first to calculate the PEFs' cost of capital by applying asset pricing models. However, their approaches are not only based on the observations of realized returns, but also consider only one additional factor to the standard Fama & French three-factor model (1993), the liquidity factor. In contrast, the results and the model proposed by this thesis are based on qualitative and quantitative ex-ante information and include not only the classical factors of that model, but also some other factors intended to explain some of the phenomena listed above which might also drive the risk premium in private equity funds. Based, therefore, on explaining the behavior of PEFs, the research develops a framework that can be applied by Italian PEFs and perhaps other PEFs in a more rational manner than their past behavior suggests.

<p>This dissertation explores issues regarding the short-lived temporal variation of the equity risk premium. In the past decade, the equity risk premium puzzle is resolved by many competing consumption-based asset pricing models. However, before \cite{btz:vrp:rfs}, the return predictability as an outcome of such models has limited empirical support in the short-run. Nowadays, there has been a consensus of the literature that the short-run equity return's predictability is intimately linked with the variance risk premium---the difference between options-implied and actual realized variation measures.</p><p>In this work, I continue to argue the importance of the short-lived components in the equity risk premium. Specifically, I first provide simulation evidence of the strong return predictability based on the variance risk premium in the U.S. aggregate market, and document new empirical findings in the international setting. Then I attempt to use a structural macro-finance model to guide through the predictability estimation with much more efficiency gain. Finally I decompose the equity risk premium into two short-lived parts --- tail risk and diffusive risk --- and propose a semi-parametric estimation method for each part. The results are arranged in the following order.</p><p>Chapter 1 of the dissertation is co-authored with Tim Bollerslev, James Marrone and Hao Zhou. In this chapter, we demonstrate that statistical finite sample biases cannot ``explain'' this apparent predictability in U.S. market based on variance risk premium. Further corroborating the existing evidence of the U.S., we show that country specific regressions for France, Germany, Japan, Switzerland, the Netherlands, Belgium and the U.K. result in quite similar patterns. Defining a ``global'' variance risk premium, we uncover even stronger predictability and almost identical cross-country patterns through the use of panel regressions. </p><p>Chapter 2 of the dissertation is co-authored with Tim Bollerslev and Hao Zhou. In this chapter, we examine the joint predictability of return and cash flow within a present value framework, by imposing the implications from a long-run risk model that allow for both time-varying volatility and volatility uncertainty. We provide new evidences that the expected return variation and the variance risk premium positively forecast both short-horizon returns \textit{and} dividend growth rates. We also confirm that dividend yield positively forecasts long-horizon returns, but that it does not help in forecasting dividend growth rates. Our equilibrium-based ``structural'' factor GARCH model permits much more accurate inference than %the reduced form VAR and</p><p>univariate regression procedures traditionally employed in the literature. The model also allows for the direct estimation of the underlying economic mechanisms, including a new volatility leverage effect, the persistence of the latent long-run growth component and the two latent volatility factors, as well as the contemporaneous impacts of the underlying ``structural'' shocks.</p><p>In Chapter 3 of the dissertation, I develop a new semi-parametric estimation method based on an extended ICAPM dynamic model incorporating jump tails. The model allows for time-varying, asymmetric jump size distributions and a self-exciting jump intensity process while avoiding commonly used but restrictive affine assumptions on the relationship between jump intensity and volatility. The estimated model implies that the average annual jump risk premium is 6.75\%. The model-implied jump risk premium also has strong explanatory power for short-to-medium run aggregate market returns. Empirically, I present new estimates of the model based equity risk premia of so-called "Small-Big", "Value-Growth" and "Winners-Losers" portfolios. Further, I find that they are all time-varying and all crashed in the 2008 financial crisis. Additionally, both the jump and volatility components of equity risk premia are especially important for the "Winners-Losers" portfolio.</p> / Dissertation

This research aims to identify the determinants of the ex-ante risk premium required by Italian private equity funds (PEFs) when valuing privately-held target companies. In theory, perceived risk is a key driver of expected returns and anticipated value, but: ¿Although PE (private equity) has experienced rapid growth, the risk and return profile of this asset class is not well understood.¿ (Jegadeesh et al., 2009). Some papers have attempted to assess the ex post returns pioneered by Lerner & Gompers (1997). Yet such studies reveal both contradictory conclusions and hitherto inexplicable phenomena: what some authors call the ¿private equity premium puzzle¿ (Moskowitz & Jorgensen, 2000). Such contradictory conclusions include a wide spread of abnormal realized returns ranging from -6% (Phalippou & Gottschalg, 2009) to +32% (Cochrane, 2005). In this research, the perceived risk and expected return drivers refer not to the ex-post realized return that PEF investors actually achieve, but to the required return the PEF hopes to gain from the target investment. At this stage, two important indicators adopted in PEF parlance have to be differentiated: (i) the Expected IRR (E.IRR) and (ii) the Threshold IRR (T.IRR). The first is the IRR as an output of a business plan, and the second assesses the return expected by PEFs according to the risk perceived in the business plan. Put simply, these are respectively, the anticipated return and the (risk-adjusted) required return. The study of the T.IRR is one of the main contributions of this thesis since it has never been studied before by academia as an indicator of the ex-ante perceived risk of a PEF target company. This is partly due to two important reasons. First, most previous papers examine ex-post performance, and only a few (e.g. Manigart et al., 2002), try to assess return expectations and risk perceptions using an ex-ante perspective. Second, most of the prior studies are quantitative and try to measure statistical effects captured by the ex-post IRR. By studying 26 deals (in 13 Italian PEFs) in detail (qualitatively and quantitatively), this research project has been able to observe how PEFs assess risk and estimate the T.IRR. The research project reveals that PEFs apply neither rational-based models nor explicit formulae to assess risk exante. By observing a set of phenomena unique to the PEF sector (fees effect, investment speed effect, persistence effect, money-chasing deal phenomenon, illiquidity effect, etc) whose existence has been suggested by many recent papers, this thesis has been able to propose an adjusted version of the three-factor model of Fama and French (1993, 1995) to assess risk. The application of a quasi-rational-based asset pricing model to guide PEFs assessments is also an important contribution of this thesis. In fact, Franzoni, Nowak and Phalippou (2010), claim to be the first to calculate the PEFs¿ cost of capital by applying asset pricing models. However, their approaches are not only based on the observations of realized returns, but also consider only one additional factor to the standard Fama & French three-factor model (1993), the liquidity factor. In contrast, the results and the model proposed by this thesis are based on qualitative and quantitative ex-ante information and include not only the classical factors of that model, but also some other factors intended to explain some of the phenomena listed above which might also drive the risk premium in private equity funds. Based, therefore, on explaining the behavior of PEFs, the research develops a framework that can be applied by Italian PEFs and perhaps other PEFs in a more rational manner than their past behavior suggests.

The market for sustainable corporate bonds is booming and has been for the pastyears. Swedish real estate companies were first with issuing green corporate bonds andresponsible for the largest amount of issued corporate bonds. However, in the socialand sustainability corporate bond market, the sector is lagging. Why would companiesissue sustainable bonds instead of regular, as it involves more issuing costs and morerequirements? Are green bonds a less risky asset and why have not thesocial/sustainability corporate bond market boomed yet?A proven method is applied by a matching approach using Mahalanobis distance withfocus on green corporate bonds issued by Swedish real estate companies at NasdaqNordic’s sustainable debt list. We compare green and traditional bonds by mean andmedian using paired t-test and Wilcoxon test. Our results conclude that the premiumon green bonds amounts to an average of 13.0 basis points with a median value of 13.6basis points, both at the 1% significance level.Interviews are held with issuers, investors, banks, and rating institutes for a deeperunderstanding behind incentives and the sustainable bonds market. Most respondentsmean that a sustainable label is connected to a premium. Besides an economicincentive, most of the respondents mean that issuing sustainable bonds is a valuablesignaling element to show the market a company’s sustainable commitment.Respondents further say that social and sustainability bonds are lagging due to thelack of key performance indicators (KPIs), regulations, and that such engagementrequires too small investment volumes. With further regulations, the risk ofenvironmental, social, and governance (ESG) washing is minimized, and respondentsbelieve that greenwashing is particularly becoming rarer as the market is maturing.Finally, the respondents all believe in further growth in both green, social andsustainability bonds, but to varying degrees.Our results conclude that there are many incentives in adding the sustainability factorin the capital structure to reduce financial costs as well as improving (or maintaining)brand image. We hope our results can give further incentives to issue sustainable debtas well as bring a deeper understanding to the challenges slowing down thedevelopment of social and sustainability bonds. / Marknaden för hållbara företagsobligationer blomstrar och har gjort det under desenaste åren. Svenska fastighetsbolag var först med att emittera grönaföretagsobligationer och står för den största utestående volymen av emitteradeföretagsobligationer. Däremot halkar sektorn efter när det kommer till sociala ochhållbarhetsobligationer. Varför skulle företag ge ut hållbara obligationer när detinnebär högre emissionskostnader och högre krav? Är gröna obligationer en mindreriskabel tillgång och varför har vi inte sett samma utveckling för sociala/hållbarhetsföretagsobligationsmarknaden?En beprövad matchningsmetod utförs genom att tillämpa Mahalanobis avstånd medfokus på gröna företagsobligationer utgivna av svenska fastighetsbolag på NasdaqNordics hållbara obligationslista. Vi jämför den initiala avkastningen utifrånmedelvärde och median med hjälp av parat t- test och Wilcoxon test. Våra resultatvisar att greenium i genomsnitt uppgår till 13,0 räntepunkter med en median på 13,6räntepunkter, båda på 1% signifikansnivå.Intervjuer genomförs med emittenter, investerare, banker och kreditvärderingsinstitut för att få en djupare förståelse för underliggande incitament och marknadenför hållbara obligationer. De flesta respondenter anser att en hållbar märkning ärkopplad till en premie. Utöver det anser respondenterna att emittering av hållbaraobligationer är en värdefull signal för att visa företagets hängivenhet till hållbarhet,där enbart investerare motsätter sig. Respondenterna menar vidare att sociala ochhållbarhetsobligationer halkar efter på grund av bristen på nyckeltal, regleringar ochatt sådana investeringar omfattar för små volymer. Med ytterligare regleringarminimeras risken för environmental, social och governance (ESG) washing, därrespondenterna anser att greenwashing framför allt blir mer sällsynt i takt med attmarknaden mognar. Slutligen tror samtliga respondenter på ytterligare tillväxt i bådegröna, sociala och hållbarhetsobligationer, dock i varierande grad.Våra resultat visar att det finns många incitament att lägga till hållbarhetsfaktorn ikapitalstrukturen för att minska finansiella kostnader samt förbättra (eller bibehålla)ett företags varumärke. Vi hoppas att våra resultat kan ge ytterligare incitament attemittera hållbara obligationer samt ge en djupare förståelse för de utmaningar sombromsar utvecklingen för sociala obligationer och hållbarhetsobligationer

This paper investigates the long-term diversification opportunities that exists for global investors among the BRICS nations. It analyzes how risk-averse investors can allocate funds between the countries in order to maximize the expected return in relation to the overall risk. It utilizes an empirical cointegration approach in tandem with modern portfolio theory during the time period 1999-2019. The empirical results of cointegration that is found supports the suggestion that the BRICS markets have a stable risk-premium between each other and that they all share similar systematic risk factors. The results further support the construction of a portfolio solely compromising of stocks from four out of the five BRICS markets, since then they do not share any long-run co-movements with each other. Moreover, the markets of Brazil, India, China and South Africa are strong candidates for reducing portfolio risk without sacrificing the adjusted portfolio return. The results also indicate several causal relationships between the nations, with China as the main driving force. This suggest that shocks in the Chinese market will spread and effect the rest of the BRICS markets, either directly or through one of the other markets. This is important knowledge for global policy-makers since China could be affected by markets outside the co-operation and subsequently transfer it to the rest of the BRICS markets. Since the countries accounts approximately 25 % of the global GDP, policy-makers must act with great care before implementing economic policies against China, since the consequences can have a much larger and wider effect than they anticipate.

Recent research documents that voluntary disclosure—in particular, managerial forecast guidance—lowers uncertainty levels, as proxied by option implied variances. In this study I explore the effect of such voluntary disclosure on other dimensions of uncertainty. In particular, I investigate the effect of managerial guidance on the variance risk premium (VRP). Prior research predicts and provides empirical evidence of the VRP, which reflects that implied variances (on average) exceed actual variances, and exists to compensate traders, who sell variance protection for equity options. First, I confirm previous findings that implied variances are lower when firms issue management guidance. Second and more importantly, I document that the VRP is higher when firms provide guidance. I reconcile these seemingly contradictory results by (i) confirming that a significant portion of the increase in VRP is attributable to uncertainty specific to the impending earnings announcement, consistent with the primary role played by the voluntary management disclosure; and (ii) documenting that a higher moment of uncertainty—implied kurtosis levels (i.e., price jump risk)—is higher with managerial guidance. Additional tests examining characteristics of managerial guidance reveal these findings are strongest for firms issuing sporadic guidance, guidance issued close to earnings announcements, and those exhibiting the largest surprise. Overall, the evidence suggests that voluntary disclosure such as management guidance can reduce expected variance, but simultaneously increase higher order moments of uncertainty such as expected price jumps.

In the financial world, stocks should provide a greater return than safe investments such as Treasury bonds. This is due to a higher risk involved when obtaining stocks in comparison to treasury bonds. Thus, the higher risk involved, the higher return is expected by the investors. The return expected over the risk-free rate is a compensation for the risk. This compensation is referred to as the market risk premium (MRP). According to financial researchers, it is not only the magnitude of the MRP discussed controversially among economists, but also the appropriate methodology to calculate meaning-ful estimates. The various estimation methods can be generalized as the historical approach (ex post) and the forward-looking approach (ex ante). The purpose of this thesis is to investigate the application of the estimation methods for-practical investment decitions and to observe which estimate (ex-post or/and ex-ante) the financial actors find to be optimal as an input for decision making. Data will be gathered from a small group of respondents in order to receive an in-depth comprehension of the subject matter. Hence, the nature of the data in this research dictates the application of qualitative methods. It can be concluded that both the ex-ante method and the ex-post method are used by the three financial actors when forecasting the MRP. Furthermore, it could be concluded that investors can apply different values of MRP as an input for models and investment deci-sions due to the fact that the choice of the fair MRP involves some subjective judgments from the individual analyst or investor.

In this thesis, I study the variance risk premium in Gold VIX market. Using synthetically created variance swaps, I quantify the variance risk premium to be average -0.068 in absolute terms and -0.358 in log return terms, meaning that purchasing volatility in Gold VIX is generally unprofitable. Although the average negative risk premium is not statistically significant, the mean log return of risk premium is robust with Newey-West test. Furthermore, I attempt to test whether risk premium vary with time or the level of the swap rate, but obtain unclear results.

Ziel der Arbeit ist - ausgehend vom Kreditrisikotransfers von internationalen Konsortialkrediten - die Darstellung der Kalkulation barwertiger Kreditrisikoprämien unter Integration von Adressenausfall- und Residualrisiken. Zentrale Aspekte sind die Identifizierung, Bewertung und Integration von Residualrisiken. Residualrisiken entstehen im Spannungsfeld des Risikotransfers zwischen Kreditgeber (=Risikogeber) und Risikonehmer. Das Adressenausfallrisiko ist der Kernbestandteil des integrierten Kalkulationsmodells. Basierend auf dem versicherungstechnischen Modell zur Kalkulation des Adressenausfallrisikos werden die Bestandteile erwarteter und unerwarteter Verlust berücksichtigt. Das integrierte Kalkulationsmodell hat die Nachhaltigkeit des Risikotransfers als Nebenbedingung. Die faire Risikoprämie, die als Summe aus erwartetem Verlust, unerwartetem Verlust und auf den Risikonehmer entfallenden Residualrisiken berechnet wird, muss der Risikogeber aus der „all-in“ Marge des Konsortialkredites bedienen.