Thesis (Ph. D.)--West Virginia University, 2006. / Title from document title page. Document formatted into pages; contains xiii, 166 p. : ill. (some col.). Includes abstract. Includes bibliographical references (p. 130-140).

I present a simulation model that should be a useful tool for risk assessment of the impact of insecticide inhibitors of cholinesterase (ChE) applied in irrigated agricultural fields on non-target wildlife. I developed the model as a compartment model based on difference equations (Δt = 1 hour) and programmed with Stella® VII software. Conceptually the model is compartmentalized into six submodels describing the dynamics of (1) insecticide application, (2) insecticide movement into floodable soil, (3) irrigation and rain, (4) insecticide dissolution in water, (5) foraging and insecticide intake from water, and (6) ChE inhibition and recovery. To demonstrate application of the model, I simulate historical, current, and “worst-case” scenarios, that examined the impact of ChE-inhibiting insecticides on white-winged doves (WWDO - Zenaida asiatica) in the Lower Rio Grande Valley of Texas (LRGV), USA. To my knowledge, there are no field data verifying that the cause of ChE deprivation in WWDO is due to the ingestion of ChE-inhibiting insecticide residues dissolved in drinking water. I parameterized the model to represent a system composed of fields of cotton, sorghum, corn, citrus, and brushland that encompasses the activity range of a WWDO in the LRGV. I simulated situations representing the typical scenario of WWDO using irrigated crop fields in the absence and in the presence of rain. I also simulated “worst case” scenarios in which methyl parathion was applied at high rates and high frequency. Based on results of the simulations, I conclude that it is unlikely that WWDO are seriously exposed to ChE-inhibiting insecticides by drinking contaminated water. Only in rare cases, for example, when a rain event occurs just after the application of insecticides, are levels of ChE inhibition likely to approach diagnostic levels (20 %). The present simulation model should be a useful tool to predict the effect of ChE-inhibiting insecticides on the ChE activity of different species that drink contaminated water from irrigated agricultural fields. It should be particularly useful in identifying specific situations in which the juxtaposition of environmental conditions and management schemes could result in a high risk to non-target wildlife.

A risk review of a fuel cell-based distributed co-generation (FC-Based DCG) system was conducted to identify and quantify the major technological system risks in a worst-case scenario. A risk review entails both a risk assessment and a risk analysis of a designed system, and it is part of risk engineering. Thorough literature reviews and expert interviews were conducted in the field of fuel cells. A thorough literature review of the risk engineering field was also conducted. A procedure for a risk review of the FC-Based DCG System was developed. The representative system design was identified by the current DCG design technology. The risk assessment was carried out, identifying the system components and potential failure modes and consequences. Then, using probabilities of failure for the various system components, the risk associated with a particular system design was determined. A Monte Carlo simulation on the total system reliability was used to evaluate the potential for system failure at a time of 1 hour, 5 hours, 10 hours, 50 hours, 100 hours and 500 hours of continuous operation. The original system was found to be acceptable at the initial times, but after 100 hours was predicted to fail. The components which consistently contribute significantly to the overall system risk are the membrane electrode assembly (MEA) and the nickel-metal foam flow fields. A revised system was analyzed with the reliability of the MEA and the Ni-foam set to 100%. After the revision, the components which contributed significantly to the system risk were the pumps. Simulations were run for several alternative systems to provide feedback on risk management suggestions. The risk engineering process developed with the design approach for this research is applicable to any system and it accommodates the use of many different risk engineering tools.

In today’s ever changing business landscape, technology and innovation projects play a key role in creating competitive advantages for an organisation. However, many such projects are often hampered by under performance, cost overruns and lower than predicted revenue (Morris and Hough, 1987 and Christoffersen et al, 1992). This seems to indicate the lack of risk management in the way we manage projects. On the other hand, it is impossible to have any projects without risks. Thus, it is essential to have effective risk management rather than trying to eliminate risk out of projects. These factors have guided this study to focus on understanding the way risk assessment is performed in international technology projects. It aims to identify the link between risk assessment and project categorization, drawing from the ransaction cost economics (TCE) perspective. A qualitative approach applying semi-structured interviews was conducted with ten interviewees holding different roles in the engineering and technology projects within a multinational company with presence in more than 100 countries around the world. The application of the data display and analysis technique by Miles and Huberman (1984, 1994) enables initial findings to be presented using the “dendogram” method, thereafter, leading to the development of a two-dimensional risk assessment matrix as the final result of this study.

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{page:Section1;} --> <!--[if gte mso 10]> <mce:style><! /* Style Definitions */ table.MsoNormalTable {mso-style-name:"Table Normal"; mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0; mso-tstyle-colband-size:0; mso-style-noshow:yes; mso-style-priority:99; mso-style-qformat:yes; mso-style-parent:""; mso-padding-alt:0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; mso-para-margin:0cm; mso-para-margin-bottom:.0001pt; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:11.0pt; font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif"; mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-bidi;} --> <!--[endif]--> The overall purpose of the paper is to see how crediting institutions assess risks in emerging market countries. The paper describes prevalent economic and social conditions for each of the selected emerging market countries (Brazil, China, Kazakhstan, India, Russia and Ukraine) as examples of recent attractive investment locations in quest of higher returns.  Second, recognizing the importance of ratings for risk management in credit institutions, the authors show what determines country ratings made by main rating agencies by running a linear regression on several macroeconomic indicators and the country ratings. It is also explained what the most widely-used ratings mean and described the correlation between the ratings as well as between the macroeconomic indicators and the ratings. The authors also describe the characteristic approach of a Scandinavian bank towards dealing with risk factors in emerging market countries. Concluding comments: risks happen to be inbound in the bank interest rates; there is no common pattern for banks to apply to all the emerging market countries and each market should be analyzed separately. Nordic banks have a relatively safe and careful strategy concerning lending in the emerging markets.

The aim of this study was to compare online child pornography offenders and contact offenders along the predictive items of the Static-2002 actuarial risk assessment tool, as well as, several other items and scales predictive of recidivism. In addition, the study wished to determine if the Static-2002 was a well-equipped to assess online offenders. 120 subjects were assessed in this study, 53 online child pornography offenders, 53 child molesters, and 7 offenders who committed both a contact and online offense. The research identified a number of similarities between the two groups of offenders, including a finding that the two groups did not significantly differ in age. The most pronounced differences were found on the several measures of criminality used in the study where contact offenders scored significantly higher. The Static-2002 was found to not be well suited for use with online offenders as the tool had difficulty assessing their sexual deviancy.

The main goal of this thesis was to develop new methods and knowledge that will explain and predict species differences in sensitivity to dioxin-like compounds (DLCs) in birds. The important achievements and results obtained from the four experimental chapters of this thesis are summarized as follow: (1) an efficient luciferase reporter gene (LRG) assay was developed for use with 96-well cell culture plates; (2) the results obtained from LRG assay were shown to be highly correlated to available in ovo toxicity data; (3) amino acids at positions 324 and 380 within the aryl hydrocarbon receptor 1 ligand binding domain (AHR1 LBD) were shown to be responsible for reduced Japanese quail (Coturnix japonica) AHR1 activity to induce a dioxin-responsive reporter gene in comparison to chicken (Gallus gallus domesticus), and ring-necked pheasant (Phasianus colchicus) AHR1 in response to different DLCs; (4) AHR1 LBD sequences of 86 avian species were studied and differences at amino acid sites 256, 257, 297, 324, 337 and 380 were identified. It was discovered that only positions 324 and 380 play a role in AHR1 activity to induce a dioxin-responsive gene; (5) in COS-7 cells expressing chicken AHR1, 2,3,7,8-tetrachlorodibenzo-p-dioxin (TCDD) and 2,3,4,7,8-pentachlorodibenzofuran (PeCDF) are equipotent inducers of the reporter gene and bind with similar affinity to chicken AHR1, however, in the cells expressing pheasant, Japanese quail and common tern (Sterna hirundo) AHR1, PeCDF is a stronger inducer than TCDD. PeCDF also binds with higher affinity to pheasant and quail AHR1 than TCDD. The results of this thesis show that embryo lethal effect of DLCs in avian species can be predicted by use of two new non-lethal methods: (1) the LRG assay and (2) determination of the identity of the amino acids at positions 324 and 380. The findings and methods described in this thesis will be of use for environmental risk assessments of DLCs.

Previous investigations of the Level of Service Inventory Ontario Revision (LSI-OR) have examined individual subgroups of offenders (e.g., women, Aboriginal offenders), which has made comparisons of its predictive validity between specific offender groups suspect. This study was conducted on a complete cohort of 26,450 offenders who were released from Ontario provincial correctional facilities, sentenced to a conditional sentence, or who began a term of probation in 2004. Participants were followed up for at least four years to collect recidivism information on numerous subgroups of offenders including males (81.7%), females (18.3%), Aboriginal (6.4%), Black (7.3%) and Caucasian offenders (59.2%). Analyses revealed that the LSI-OR scores are positively correlated with recidivism (r = .441, p < .001), and similar correlations were found for all offenders regardless of gender or race, (Aboriginal r = .377, p < .001; Black, r = .420, p < .001; Caucasian, r = .417, p < .001; Male, r = .439, p < .001; Female, r = .426, p < .001). LSI-OR scores are also correlated with severity of the recidivism offence, (r = .098, p <.001) indicating that higher LSI-OR scores are related to higher offence severity for all ethnicities, sentence types, and genders. These findings indicate that the LSI-OR is an effective risk assessment tool for use among different ethnicities, sentence types and genders for provincially sentenced offenders in Ontario.

The legitimacy of classifying female offenders in the correctional system has been disputed (especially the application of male-normed risk assessment tools), and yet, there is a need to accurately determine the risk of re-offending and the criminogenic needs of the offender along with general and specific issues (i.e., responsivity) that will encourage successful program delivery. The Level of Service Inventory Ontario Revision (LSI-OR; Andrews, Bonta & Wormith, 1995) is an assessment tool used throughout Ontarios probation services and provincial institutions. Although the first edition of the LSI was based primarily on a male sample, later revisions included norms for female offenders based on samples spanning three continents (Blanchette & Brown, 2006). Although its reliability and predictive validity has been demonstrated across many field settings and offender populations, few studies (e.g., Rettinger, 1998) have addressed the question of predictive validity on a sufficiently large sample of female offenders to convince the skeptics of the LSI-ORs applicability to women (Blanchette & Brown).<p> The current study examined internal consistency, the ability to discriminate recidivists from non-recidivists with t-tests, and the capacity to predict recidivism with correlation and receiver operating characteristic analysis. The sample consisted of 2831 female offenders who were either released from a provincial correctional facility, completed a conditional sentence in the community, or completed a sentence of probation in Ontario during a one year period (2002/2003). Special consideration was given to female offenders from different disposition groups, with different racial backgrounds, with mental health issues and with prior victimization. The LSI-OR had very strong internal consistency and was able to distinguish offenders who committed a re-offence from those who did not commit a re-offence; both when considering the scale as a whole and when considering individual subscales. The LSI OR was also found to predict recidivism for all female offenders. It also predicted recidivism for all subgroups with the exception of female offenders released on a conditional sentence and who had been previously victimized. While the use of the LSI-OR to assess provincial female offenders is supported, however, new risk levels are suggested to increase the predictive ability and reduce the potential for over-classification.

Current literature suggests that the Level of Service Inventory (LSI) and its derivatives (LSI-R, LS/CMI, LSI-OR) are capable of predicting violent recidivism, even though they were not initially designed for this function (Girard & Wormith, 2004; Mills & Kroner, 2006). The purpose of this study was to generate violence prediction scales, based on items or subscales from the LSI-OR, using five different statistical techniques. These analyses were completed on the full construction sample, then the males and the females separately to determine how the scales differ from each other and what, if any, benefits would accrue from utilizing a gender-specific scale.<p> A cohort of 27,027 offenders who were released from custody or entered into community supervision over a one year period was included in the study. There was an average followup time of 4.4 years. In this sample there was a general recidivism rate of 36.0% and a violent recidivism rate of 11.3%. Fifteen violence prediction scales were generated that ranged in predictive validity from r = .139 to r = .214. The scale with the highest predictive validity was the 11 item scale created from the full sample using the item linear regression technique. The scale contained items indicating that history of assault, lack of education and anger management issues were related to violent recidivism. Risk levels were developed for this new scale to classify offenders from very low to very high risk.<p> Although there was little difference in the predictive validity of the generated scales, the stepwise multiple linear regression technique was identified as the most successful method of creating a tool for predicting violent recidivism. There was no increase in predictive validity when using the scale that was developed for just the females in the sample, although fewer items were consistently generated for females than males. Therefore the full sample item linear regression scale is recommended for the prediction of violent recidivism of both male and female offenders in the jurisdiction from which the data were collected. Future research directions may replicate this study in other populations and further analyze the gender differences in violent recidivism.