We want to be able to use information about the traffic flows at road junctions and covariates describing those junctions to predict the number of accidents occurring there. We develop here a Bayesian predictive approach. Initially we considered three simpler but related problems to assess the efficiency of some approximation techniques, namely: (I) Given a treatment with an effect that can be described mathematically as of a multiplicative form, we record Poisson countings before and after the treatment is applied. Then, given a new individual with a known counting before the treatment is used, we want to predict the outcome on that individual after the treatment is applied. (II) After observing the value on an individual before any treatment is applied, we decide, based on that value, which of two treatments to apply, and then register the post- treatment outcome. Given a new individual, with an observed value before he receives any treatment, we aim to derive the predictive distribution for the outcome after one of the treatments is used. (This problem is also considered when several possible treatments are available). (III) We compare the effects of two treatments, through a two-period crossover design. We assume that both the treatment effect and the period effect are of multiplicative forms. Estimative and approximation methods are developed for each of these problems. We use the Gibbs sampling approach, normal asymptotic approximations for the posterior distributions and the Laplace approximations. Examples are presented to compare the efficiency and performance of the different methods. We find that the Laplace method performs well, and has computational advantages over the other methods. Using the knowledge obtained solving these simpler problems we develop solutions for the traffic accidents problem and analyse a real data set. Stepwise procedures for the incorporation of the covariates through the use of Kullback-Leibler measure of divergence are developed. We also consider the three simpler problems assuming that the observations are exponentially and binomially distributed.

This master thesis analyzes the bottlenecks on the terrestrial communications in the area Blansko. The aim is to suggest organizational and engineering measures which lead to increase traffic safety in selected road sections of terrestrial communications.

The thesis refers to the issue of road accidents and their prevention in the Czech Republic, seen as a negative phenomenon in modern society. It is divided into two relatively independent parts, theoretical and practical. The theoretical part focuses on a general description of traffic accident and states their main causes. Moreover, it deals with a road accident as a traumatic event having negative effects on life of involved people, especially on the human psyche. At the end of this part you can find basic principles of emergency intervention on casualties of road accidents and organizations which offer free help to road accident casualties. In the practical part of this work there is a study of road accidents that happened in the region of the Czech Republic from the point of view of their causes and the age of the driver.

Šiame magistro darbe išanalizuota Lietuvos eismo įvykių apskaitos sistema, sudaryta iš duomenų rinkimo, įvedimo ir teikimo proceso, kurį atlieka policijos įstaigų darbuotojai. Darbe išsamiai išnagrinėti Lietuvos norminiai dokumentai, reglamentuojantys eismo įvykių apskaitos procesą. Analizės rezultatams apibendrinti yra skurti pirminių veiksmų, duomenų pasiskirstymo ir teikimo bei ikiteisminio tyrimo medžiagos panaudojimo grafiniai modeliai. Taip pat išsamiai išnagrinėtas Europos Sąjungoje atliekamas eismo įvykių apskaitos procesas. Darbe pateiktas eismo įvykių duomenų apskaitos programinės sistemos detalus vertinimas su rekomendacijomis, kaip patobulinti sistemą siekiant užtikrinti išsamesnius, tikslesnius oficialios statistikos eismo įvykių duomenis. Baigiamojo darbo apimtis – 81 psl. teksto be priedų, 19 lentelių ir 13 paveikslų. / In this Master Thesis analysis of Lithuanian road accident management system, which consists data collecting, adding and provision process have been done. Lithuanian normative documents which governs road accident management process are purely explored in this Master Thesis. To generalize analysis results have been created primary respond, data distribution and provision, data usage of pre-trial process graphical models. Also a part of the work reveals detailed analysis of accident data management of European Union countries. In this paper is provided detailed evaluation of road accident data management software system and recommendations to ensure more detailed road accidents data of official statistics by improving system. Master Thesis consists of 81 pages pure text without appendixes, 19 tables and 13 pictures.

La variabilité du rythme cardiaque « Heart Rate Variability (HRV) » consiste en des fluctuations perpétuelles du rythme cardiaque autour de sa fréquence moyenne. L’analyse de l’HRV constitue un biomarqueur du fonctionnement du système nerveux autonome (SNA), par l’intermédiaire de ses effets sur le cœur. De nombreuses études ont montré qu’une diminution de l’HRV est associée à un pronostic péjoratif, notamment dans le post infarctus et dans l’insuffisance cardiaque (IC). Nous nous sommes proposés d’élargir le champ d’investigation de l’HRV à de nouveaux domaines d’application, qu'il s'agisse de pathologies cardiaque ou extra cardiaque. Nous avons ciblé des contextes pathologiques dans lesquels le SNA joue un rôle important : 1-Accidents sur la Voie Publique (AVP) et le risque de développement d’un syndrome de stress post traumatique (PTSD). 2-Effet de la douleur et de l’analgésie péridurale sur l’HRV maternelle au cours de l’accouchement. 3-Lien avec les polymorphismes génétique des récepteurs bêta adrénergiques (β;-AR) chez des patients présentant une dysfonction ventriculaire gauche et implanté d’un défibrillateur automatique implantable (DAI) en prévention secondaire. L'analyse temporelle de l'HRV sur 24 heures est un facteur prédictif de survenue d'un PTSD et aussi de sa sévérité chez les victimes d'AVP. L'indice de variabilité est le meilleur paramètre prédictif de PTSD à 6 mois, avec une aire sous la courbe de 0.92 (IC 95% : 0.785; 1.046). Le seuil de 2.19% confère une sensibilité de 85,7 £ et une spécificité e 81.8 % pour prédire la survenue d'un PTSD. les valeurs prédictives positives et négatives sont de 75 % et 90 % respectivement. L'ANI, reflétant l'influence de la ventilation sur le rythme cardiaque, permet une mesure objective de la douleur chez les parturientes. Enfin, les patients ayant subi les substitutions Arg (pour Gly) en 16 et Gln (pour Glu) en 27 pour les récepteurs β2-AR, présentent une HRV plus faible que les patients ayant la forme sauvage du gène. / The heart rate variability (HRV) has arisen as a promising simple and non invasive biomarker of autonomic nervous system (ANS) function, through its effects on the heart. Multiple studies have shown that the decrease in the HRV is associated usually with poor prognosis. We proposed to further investigate the HRV in other domains of clinical application, including cardiac or extra-cardiac pathologies. In particular, the pathological contexts in which the ANS plays an important role :1-Traffic road accident (RTA) and the risk of development of post traumatic stress disorders (PTSD) in survivors.2-Effect of pain and of epidural analgesia on maternal HRV during childbirth.3-Genetic polymorphisms of beta adrenergic receptors (β-AR) in patients with left ventricular dysfunction and implanted with an implantable cardioverter defibrillator (ICD) for secondary prevention. At first, our study is the first to show that the temporal analysis of 24-h HRV is not only a predictive factor of the occurrence of PTSD but also its severity among victims of RTA AVP. The variability index was the best predictor of PTSD with the area under the receiver-operating curve for discriminating PTSD at 6 month at 0.92 (95% CI:0.785;1.046). Acut-off at 2.19% yielded a sensitivity of 85.7% and a specificity of 81.8% for PTSD. Positive and negative predictive values were respectively 75% and 90%. At next, we showed that the ANI, which reflects the influence of ventilation on heart rate, allows an objective measure of pain in conscious subjects? At last, we found that patients with the substitutions Arg (instead of Gly) at position 16 and Gln (instead of Glu) at position 27 for β2-AR have a lower HRV value than patients with wild type receptor.

This study aimed at exploring the agenda setting process of the Road Accident Fund (RAF), a road accident compensation system operating in South Africa using Kingdon's model of Agenda Setting. This study focused on the period between 1996 when the RAF was introduced to 2005 when the focus in the Fund was put mainly on how to deal with fraud and corruption issues. When the RAF was put into place, the main aim was to establish a compensation system that will be able to deal with the effects of road accidents that the people suffer. These are mostly the vulnerable road users and public transport passengers who account for most of the road casualties. However there has been a shift in the focus of the Road Accident Fund Act of 1996, hence the majority of the people who were meant to be beneficiaries ended up not benefiting from the Fund due to corruption. A theoretical framework based on the work of John Kingdon (1995) is used to explore the developments in the RAF that led to the Road Accident Benefit Scheme (RABS) as a proposed system. Qualitative research method was used in order to trace the unfolding of the events and action of participants in the RAF in order to see whether the developments in the Fund can be explained using Kingdon's framework of agenda setting. Historical documents were used to collect data and to trace the chronology of events. These include formal records, including Annual Reports on the RAF and media articles, including newspapers. Content analysis method was done on material such as: Annual Reports on the Road Accident Fund, Meeting Minutes, Parliamentary Proceedings, Newspaper Articles and Speeches, primarily from the Department of Transport in order to analyse data. The findings of this study revealed that using Kingdon's theory of agenda setting, it is possible to come to a better understanding of the agenda setting process that led to a current state of the RAF. In the RAF case study, the three policy streams proposed by Kingdon namely: problem stream, policy stream and political stream, were identified. In the problem stream, the financial 'crisis' together with feedback from the formal as well as the media reports that indicated that the financial condition of the RAF was getting worse served as an indication that there was a problem in the Fund. Several ideas were generated in the policy stream of the Fund. Amongst other things, studies, discussions, hearings, meetings and conferences conducted by the RAF Commission for the purpose of investigating the Fund and come up with alternative solutions, created pressure for policy change. While RABS which incorporated in it a "no fault" system of compensation was proposed as a solution by the RAF Commission, liquidation of the Fund was also a concern. In the political stream, the national mood, change of administration and interest group pressure were evident and contributed to the agenda setting of the RAF. Media reports also contributed to the whole agenda setting process of the Fund. The implications of the analysis for future processes are drawn. / Thesis (M.Soc.Sc.)-University of KwaZulu-Natal, Pietermaritzburg, [2008].

The name and the topic of this diploma thesis, Crash simulation vehicle carrying explosives, impacts and solutions, illustrates its main goal. That is, using the TerEx software program, to simulate a crash of vehicle transporting explosives, the impacts resulting from such an incident and, as a secondary goal, to propose solutions of such an incident for the Emergency Service units, with the connection to public safety. After resolving these tasks, it will be possible to answer the research question: What are the dangers of a crash of vehicle transporting explosives? In the beginning, the theoretical part of the thesis focuses on explosives as such. The history of their inventions, usage and development is outlined. In the next chapter, explosives are defined as substances capable of explosive transformation that can release a large amount of energy in a very short time upon a sudden external impulse. For the classification of explosives, it was necessary to characterize types of explosive transformations and general principles that lead to releasing energy. Very important are then the theoretical chapters of this thesis, where are described in detail the effects and phenomena of an explosion, which are necessary for the identification of imminent harmful effects and impacts on the environment in the case of their unwanted initiation. These phenomena include shock wave, thermal and fragmentational effect, recoil, routing, blocking and multiplication of the shock wave. Follows the part, where explosives are classified according to various aspects, from which the most important is the aspect of speed of explosive transformation, which cardinally affects the explosives' properties. This part is followed by a chapter that describes those characteristics. The second half of the theoretical part is concerned with transportation of hazardous materials, especially explosives. Packing and marking requirements, duties of transportation participants and training of the participants are specified there. One must not forget traffic requirements and other necessities connected with transportation, including the need for accompanying documents, transport staff, traffic unit, its construction and equipment and the course of transportation. The last section of the theoretical part of this thesis is dedicated to specific rules of explosives' transportation, which in the Czech Republic are set by the law. It includes mainly a duty to notify the Police Prezidium of the Czech Republic at least 24 hours prior to transportation of explosives and the duty for the vehicle used for transportation to be equipped with a tracking device. In this sense the explosives are the only group of hazardous materials, for which these stricter rules apply. In order to find an answer to the research question, it was necessary in the empirical part of the thesis to gather input data for the TerEx program, where the event was then simulated. These data were collected by an analysis of usage and occurrence of explosives in the area of the South Bohemian region. On the basis of this analysis, a highly brisant explosive NKG-500, which is commonly used for quarrying, special destructive works, underwater tasks and for priming of industrial explosives. It is a place, where the density and complexity of traffic has not yet been tackled accordingly. On the basis of output from thus performed simulation it was possible to assess that in such a densely populated area with the large number of residential and administrative buildings an accident of vehicle transporting explosives poses a considerable threat. In connection with the threats and impacts discovered in relation with such an incident, a unified course of action of the Emergency Service for their solution was designed, whereupon specific actions of its respective units were considered.

Les recherches sociologiques portant sur l’analyse des liens entre l’appartenance socio-territoriale et le risque routier demeurent minimes. Si les travaux épidémiologiques dans ce domaine sont plus nombreux et concluent pour l’essentiel, à l’existence d’inégalités sociales et territoriales de mobilité et d’accidentalité routière, les logiques afférentes restent pourtant méconnues. Dans quelle mesure la situation sociale et territoriale d’un individu influe-t-elle sur sa mobilité et son accidentalité routière ? Pourquoi les groupes défavorisés auraient-ils plus d’accidents de la route que les plus favorisés ? Ces questionnements constituent le point de départ de notre recherche. En choisissant de nous intéresser aux cas des adolescents, notre problématique ne se réduit plus à celle des inégalités sociales et territoriales de mobilité et d’accidentalité routière. Désormais, elle tient compte également des spécificités de l’adolescence en tant que période pendant laquelle l’aspiration à l’autonomie est forte, les prises de risque récurrentes, et l’influence des pairs non négligeable. Nous avons entreprise notre recherche auprès d’adolescents issus de six collèges rhodaniens aux profils contrastés (publics/privés, en milieu urbain/ en banlieue/en milieu rural). Plus de 1000 adolescents ont participé à une enquête par questionnaire et près de 200 d’entre eux ont participé à des focus-group. En alliant méthode quantitative et méthode qualitative, nous montrons que la mobilité et l’accidentalité routière des adolescents ne sont pas réductibles à leur appartenance sociale et territoriale. La thèse que nous défendons est la suivante : « en matière de mobilité et de sécurité routière, les inégalités ou disparités sociales et territoriales peuvent être doublées, voire gommées par l’effet du groupe d’âge et par l’autonomie décisionnelle de l’adolescent ». Par-delà les inégalités de motorisation selon la situation sociale et territoriale, les comportements routiers sont moins liés à l’appartenance socio-territoriale qu’à la volonté de l’adolescent de rendre son comportement raisonnable selon les circonstances du trajet. Les milieux défavorisés renferment certes les plus fortes proportions d’adolescents ayant des comportements routiers à risque mais lorsque les adolescents sont avec leurs pairs, tous – quelle que soit leur appartenance sociale – adoptent davantage des comportements contraires aux normes officielles de sécurité routière. Chez les adolescents, l’appartenance sociale et territoriale n’influe pas sur le risque d’accident de la route : ce sont surtout l’usage du deux-roues motorisé et l’expérience de l’ivresse qui augmentent le risque d’accident. / Sociological research on the links between socio-territorial belonging and road risk remain minimal. If the epidemiological studies in this field are more numerous and essentially conclude the existence of social and territorial inequalities of mobility and road accidents, logics related remain yet unknown. To what extent the socio-territorial belonging of an individual does affect his mobility and his road accidents? Why disadvantages groups would they have more road traffic accidents than more advantages groups ? These questions were the starting point of our research. By choosing to focus on the case of teenagers, our problem cannot be restricted to social and territorial inequalities. It now also takes into account the specificities of adolescence as a period during which the aspiration for autonomy is strong, the risk taking recurrent, and the peers’ influence significant. We conducted our research with teenagers from six Rhone “colleges” with contrasting profiles (public/private, urban area/suburban/rural). More than 1000 teenagers participated in a questionnaire survey and about 200 of them participated in focus-groups.By combining quantitative method with qualitative method we show that teenagers’ mobility and road accident are not reducible to their social and territorial belonging. The thesis we defend is the following: “in terms of mobility and road safety, social and territorial inequalities and disparities can be doubled, even erased by the effect of the age group and by the decision making autonomy of the teenager”. Beyond the inequalities of motorization according to the social and territorial situation, the road behaviors are less linked to socio-territorial belonging to the will of the teenager to make its behavior reasonable under the circumstances of the journey. Underprivileged backgrounds certainly contain the highest proportions of adolescents with risky road behaviors but when teens are with their peers, everyone – regardless of their social belonging – more adopt behaviors contrary to the official road safety standards. Among teenagers, the social and territorial belonging does not influence the risk of road accident : it is primarily the use of motorized two-wheelers and the experience of drunkenness that increase the risk of accident.

La femme enceinte, au même titre que n’importe qui, peut être amenée à utiliser une voiture pour se déplacer et est ainsi donc potentiellement victime d’un accident de la route. Si l’intégrité physique de cette personne est alors menacée, il en est de même pour celle de son enfant à naître. Les accidents de la route sont d’ailleurs la première cause de blessures du fœtus à la suite d’un traumatisme. La question de recherche inhérente à ce travail vise à clarifier les mécanismes de blessures du fœtus à la suite d’un accident de la route et à identifier une éventuelle relation entre ces mécanismes et les interactions qui peuvent exister entre la victime de l’accident et son environnement immédiat. Les résultats de ces travaux proposeront également des outils nécessaires au développement et à l’évaluation de dispositifs de protection spécifiques prenant en compte la morphologie particulière d’une femme enceinte afin de diminuer le risque de pertes fœtales à la suite d'un accident de la route. Dans un premier temps, un modèle de liquide amniotique a été développé, validé puis couplé avec un modèle éléments finis représentatif d’une femme enceinte. Cet outil numérique permet notamment la simulation de divers scénarios d’accidents afin d’en étudier les conséquences pour le fœtus. Dans un second temps, des mesures de la position de conduite des femmes enceintes au cours de la grossesse ont été effectuées afin d’être capable de simuler des accidents de la route dans des conditions réalistes. Enfin, des critères prédicteurs de blessures fœtales ont été développés afin de permettre l’évaluation de l’efficacité de nouveaux dispositifs de protection. / Road accidents are the leading cause of fetal injuries resulting from trauma. The aim of this work is to clarify the mechanisms of fetal injuries following a road accident and to identify a possible relationship between these mechanisms and interactions that may exist between the accident victims and its immediate environment. The results of this work will also propose tools for the development and the evaluation of specific protection devices taking into account the particular morphology of a pregnant woman in order to reduce the risk of fetal loss following a road accident. Firstly, an amniotic fluid model was developed, validated and then coupled with a finite element model representative of a pregnant woman. This computational tool allows to perform various car accident simulations to evaluate their consequences for the fetus. Secondly, measures of the driving position of pregnant women during pregnancy have been conducted to be able to simulate road accidents in realistic conditions. Finally, fetal injury predictors have been developed to allow assessment of the effectiveness of new protective devices. These predictors were associated to possible injuriy mechanisms.

The aim of this diploma thesis is to simulate a road accident of a vehicle carrying a chosen dangerous chemical substance in a chosen city. We chose a crash site based on statistical inquiry of the number of road accidents. We chose a chemical substance by analyzing substances used in the vicinity of the chosen city. Through the use of simulation, we described and created a proposition of solving the arose extraordinary event, for the components of Emergency Service units. After completing these objectives, it will be possible to answer the research question: What kind of jeopardy does the leakage of a chosen chemical substance represent, during transportation in a chosen town? The theoretical part firstly focuses on basic terms that we worked with in the thesis. Basic legislative fixing point of dangerous objects and substances is described. Also, European and interstate regulations about transportation of these things is described. European agreement ADR is separately described further away. In the next part, manipulation with dangerous substances and mixtures is described as it is shown in Enactment EP and Council No. 1272/2008/ES, or the enactment of CLP. The characteristics determining their hazardousness, the way of evaluation and classification of dangerous substances and mixtures into corresponding categories is also described. Separately described are ways of packaging and numbering these substances. In the last part, we described the making of a safety list about chemical substances and mixtures, with an emphasis on the information about their transportation. In the next part we described the transportation of dangerous objects and substances on the highway. Further away we described appropriateness and demands for transportation of dangerous substances, for example demands on choosing vehicle personnel, the transportation itself and the equipment that every vehicle must have. We described the risks related with transportation and planning routes for transporting dangerous substances and objects. The aim of the assessments and precautions above are to minimalize risks related to transportation of dangerous substances and thus make it relatively safe. Unfortunately, this is not absolutely possible. This was also found to be true in the empirical part of the thesis, in which we carried out an analysis of the statistics of road accidents of vehicles in the ADR mode, and we found that the human factor is indeed the cause of these accidents. It was proven that 94% of all the road accidents of vehicles in the ADR mode was caused by the driver of the vehicle.Further away, the number of Emergency Service units interferences in cases of dangerous substance leakage and procedures carried out during those interferences, are described. In the empirical part of the thesis, we described methods of choosing the crash site and the dangerous substance. As a crash site we chose highway I/49 in Zlín county, that is evaluated as a highway of medium risk of road accidents, on the road risk map of Czech Republic. More accurately, cross-road of Třída Tomáše Bati and Březnická street in Zlín. When choosing the right substance we conducted an analysis of chemical substance usage in Zlín county. Subsequently we chose aqueous solution of ammoniac, which is being transported on the highway I/49 by two companies. It is prepared in IBC containers with the volume of 1000 liters. Acquired data was used for simulation, evaluation of the extraordinary event and for choosing the number of individuals in jeopardy.The simulation was executed using the TerEx software. Subsequently, the proposal for dealing with the extraordinary event by the Emergency Service units was developed. Based on the executed simulation, it is possible to assess that transportation of dangerous substances and mixtures constitutes a great danger in the residential area with a high number of habitable and administrative buildings.