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Personor som designmetod är både hyllad och ifrågasatt. Scenarier och personor är två modeller som inkluderar användaren på olika sätt. Personor ska visualisera användaren och scenarier illu- strerar användaren i interaktion med den kommande produkten. Syftet med denna studie var att ta reda på om personor tillför något vid utveckling av informationstjänster för särskilda grupper, som scenarier inte redan gör. För att undersöka syftet utvecklades fyra personor med tillhörande scenarier. Dessa var till grund för två workshops där två interaktionsdesigners deltog i den ena och två i den andra. Dessa interaktionsdesigners uppgift var att, med hjälp av antingen personor och scenarier eller bara scenarier, utveckla en prototyp av ett sammanfattningsprogram. Proces- sen analyserades med fokus på hur de pratade om och arbetade med scenarierna och personorna. Resultatet visade att det som skiljer scenarier och personor mest åt är att personor ger en mer emotionell bild än vad scenarier gör. Det är bra att ha personor i ett projekt där användarna är tydligt definierade och svåra för utvecklarna att sätta sig in i. Då är det också bra om utvecklarna är med och skapar personorna och scenarierna så att de lär känna användarna. Då ökar också chansen att utvecklarna litar på sitt material, vilket är en förutsättning för att det ska kunna hjälpa dem i designprocessen.

Digital analytic tools offer great potential to enhance town and city planning. Software that facilitates the modeling of possible urban design future scenarios can help planners and stakeholders in a city simulate economic, ecological, and social impacts of urban design choices. The Envision Tomorrow analytic suite is a software program that has been used to enhance participatory, small-group urban planning exercises in the Sustainable Places Project in four small cities in central Texas. This suite features formula-based measurements that relate aspects of the built environment, such as parking ratios and land uses, to indicators related to sustainability impacts. These outcomes range from demographic and density characteristics of new planning scenarios to their effects on municipal budgets and household water and energy consumption. Envision Tomorrow is analyzed in terms of its use in the Sustainable Places Project. While the town scenarios designed in this process reflect strong sustainable design principles, process analysis and stakeholder interviews suggest that the analytic indicators did not have major impacts on the community design process itself. Software use should be combined with more focus on outreach and education efforts to make modeling more representative and effective. / text

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Forests are often cited as an important factor in order to minimize greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions since the wood raw material has many beneficial uses related to reducing GHGs emissions. In Jämtland the potential of using forests as a measure of reducing GHGs emissions is considerable since more than half of the county's land area consists of productive forest land. Since the wood raw material is a limited resource, it is required that the raw material is used as efficiently as possible, for the right purpose, and where the reduction potential regarding GHG emissions will be as large as possible. To investigate this, a model has been constructed in which different utilization options for the forest can be simulated with respect to GHG emissions with the aim to investigate how the use of the forest in Jämtland affects the GHG balance in a short term perspective. The model, called SkogSim 2050, has been constructed in Microsoft Excel and has been used to simulate seven different scenarios that describe how the use of forest raw material in Jämtland is expected to affect the GHG balance by 2050. The scenarios have been chosen with regard to various competing uses of forest products and includes only the main applications that exist today, namely sawn timber, pulp and paper production and wood fuel. One scenario also simulates how the GHG balance is affected if the forest would not be felled. Some of the scenarios include an increased extraction of logging residues in the form of branches and tree tops (GROT) and stumps compared to today's withdrawal. The results of the simulated scenarios show that all scenarios are resulting in significant reduced or prevented GHG emissions when consideration is given to substitution and storage effects. The results also show that the major impact on the GHG balance in the different scenarios are strongly linked to the type of energy that is assumed to be substituted. When coal was considered as the substituted fuel the scenario that only included production of wood fuels combined with a significantly increased extraction of logging residues resulted in the greatest impact on the GHG balance with reduced or prevented GHG emissions of up to 520 million tons of carbon dioxide equivalents (CO2e) for the whole simulated time period; 2014-2050. If instead, natural gas was considered as the substituted fuel the positive effects were reduced substantially in all scenarios and the scenario which simulated no logging went from being the option that provided the lowest reduced or prevented GHG emissions to represent the highest reduction and prevention of GHG emissions of approximately 330 million tons CO2e for the whole simulated time period. The results also show that increased extraction of forest residues for substitution of natural gas provides a direct negative effect on the reduction and prevention of GHG emissions in the short term. Based on the results it is possible to conclude that in the short term it is vital to also evaluate how the emissions of biogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) affect the GHG balance. Fossil CO2 emissions from the use of forest raw material in Jämtland represent only a small part of the overall impact on the GHG balance and it is instead the amount of wood fuel that is used, and the substitution effects linked to the use, that has the greatest impact on the GHG balance in a short term perspective. / Skogen pekas ofta ut som en avgörande faktor för att kunna minimera utsläppen av växthusgaser då skogsråvaran har många klimatnyttiga användningsområden. I Jämtland finns det goda förutsättningar för att nyttja skogen för klimatnyttiga ändamål då mer än hälften av länets landareal utgörs av produktiv skogsmark. Eftersom att skogsråvaran utgör en begränsad resurs krävs det att råvaran används så effektivt som möjligt, till rätt ändamål och där utbytet gällande besparade växthusgasutsläpp blir så stort som möjligt. För att undersöka detta har en modell konstruerats där olika användningssätt för skogen kan simuleras med avseende på växthusgasutsläpp med syftet att undersöka hur nyttjande av Jämtlands skogar påverkar växthusgasbalansen utifrån ett kortare tidsperspektiv. Modellen, benämnd SkogSim 2050, har konstruerats i Microsoft Excel och har använts till att simulerar sju olika scenarier som beskriver hur användandet av skogsråvaran i Jämtland förväntas påverka växthusgasbalansen fram till 2050. Scenarierna har valts med avseende på olika konkurrerande användningsområden för skogsråvaran och inkluderar endast de huvudsakliga användningsområden som existerar idag, nämligen sågvirke, pappers- och massaproduktion och trädbränsle. Ett scenario simulerar också hur växthusgasbalansen påverkas om skogen inte skulle avverkas. Några av scenarierna inkluderar även ett ökat uttag av avverkningsrester i form av grenar och toppar (GROT) och stubbar jämfört med dagens uttag. Resultatet från de simulerade scenarierna visar på att alla scenarier resulterar i stora reducerade eller förhindrade utsläpp av växthusgaser när hänsyn tas till substitutions- och lagringseffekter. Resultatet visar också på att hur stor påverkan på växthusgasbalansen är i de olika scenarierna är starkt knuten till vilket energislag som antas substitueras. Vid användning av kol som substituerat bränsle resulterade scenariot som endast inkluderar produktion av trädbränslen i kombination med ett drastiskt ökat uttag av avverkningsrester i störst påverkan på växthusgasbalansen gällande reducerade eller förhindrade utsläpp av växthusgaser på upp emot 520 miljoner ton koldioxidekvivalenter (CO2e) för hela den simulerade tidsperioden; 2014-2050. Om istället naturgas anges som substituerat bränsle minskar den positiva effekten avsevärt i alla scenarier och scenariot som simulerar ingen avverkning går från att vara det alternativ som ger lägst reducerade eller förhindrade växthusgasutsläpp till att resultera i högst reduktion och förhindrande av växthusgasutsläpp på ungefär 330 miljoner ton CO2e för hela den simulerade tidsperioden. Resultatet visar också på att ett ökat uttag av avverkningsrester för substitution av naturgas ger en direkt negativ effekt på reduktionen och förhindrandet av växthusgasutsläpp i det korta perspektivet. Baserat på resultaten går det att dra slutsatsen att i det korta tidsperspektivet är det vitalt att även utvärdera hur utsläppen av biogen koldioxid (CO2) påverkar växthusgasbalansen. De fossila CO2-utsläppen från nyttjandet av skogsråvaran i Jämtland utgör endast en liten del av den totala påverkan på växthusgasbalansen och det är istället den mängd trädbränsle som nyttjas samt substitutionseffekter kopplade till det nyttjandet som har störst påverkan på växthusgasbalansen. / <p>2016-06-29</p>

In this article a new branch & bound method is described. It uses an artificial target to improve its bounding capabilities. Therefore the new approach is faster compared to the classical one. It is applied to the stochastic problem of optimal scenario tree reduction. The aspects of global optimization are emphasized here. All necessary components for that problem are developed and some experimental results underline the benefits of the new approach. (author's abstract) / Series: Working Papers on Information Systems, Information Business and Operations

Documenting organisational history and heritage, it is argued, is an increasingly critical precursor to effective corporate and scenario planning. This study proposes that organisational history and heritage can be encapsulated in any local setting through the application of van der Heijden's (1996) conceptual framework i.e. the "business" idea. The study demonstrates that documenting the organisational business idea in use is a valid and meaningful planning activity. Secondly, the possession of multiple perspectives on the business idea in use, means that current and future planning teams will collectively be better informed, more competent and ready to abandon established ways of doing business and to strategise about unknown futures.Interpretivist methodology utilising an embedded single case study method was applied to an organisation undergoing change: the Family Planning Association of Western Australia, Inc. (FPWA). A stratified sample of thirty-four members from FPWA's institutional (Board of Management), corporate, organisational (service managers and coordinators) and technical (service delivery) organisational levels were interviewed, with the intent of capturing broad perceptions from each organisational level of the derived categories of the business idea framework. The categories investigated were those of organisational purpose, customer value created, distinctive competencies, competitive advantage, organisational uniqueness, positive and negative forces, and results. The study sought evidence to support each of the derived categories, as well as looking to elaborate on the process and task of business idea investigation and articulation.Interview outcomes were transcribed, coded and analysed using NUD*IST, the intent being to craft a consolidated model of the business idea in use at FPWA. Multiple perspectives from the four nominated organisational ++ / levels were isolated by copying the core NUD*IST database four times. A copy was assigned to each organisational group wherein interviews belonging to the assigned group were retained, and the remainder deleted, thereby allowing the differences between each group to emerge. Elements of the NUD*IST index system for the core and four derived databases were then exported to Decision Explorer for graphical representation and gap analysis. Narrative analysis was applied to relate the study's findings.Key internal and external factors were identified as both driving and hindering evolution of FPWA's corporate culture. It was in these areas that key insights to the meta value of the study emerged. The key driving external force was the changing face of sexual health community issues, specifically the expansion of services beyond women's health to cover men's, gay, lesbian and special need groups-FPWA is about sex (positive external force).The question of who should pay for sexual health services is also challenged. Concerns over the withdrawal of government funding (negative external force) and a lack of perceived direction (negative internal force) by members at the organisational and technical levels, has led to behaviour aimed at corporate survival and maintenance of the status quo. Many staff at FPWA were interpreted as clinging tightly to social justice, women's rights issues, reflecting the humanitarian (positive internal force) value-based aspects that have sustained FPWA's service over its twenty-five years of service.The conceptual framework associated with the business idea proved to be essentially a system that maps the organisation's corporate and commercial rationale. The systemic insights that emerged from the study at FPWA enabled the researcher to build a four level hierarchical model of systemic appreciation with van der Heijden's framework as the ++ / foundation. Issues of corporate age and stage of growth, systemic archetype and the key question facing the scenario planning team made up the higher levels of an emergent model of scenario planning readiness. The critical thinking associated with documenting the organisational history and heritage in the form of the business idea system has therefore generated a crucial link in the corporate and scenario planning process: the articulation of the key question as a catalyst to the next stage of corporate strategy formulation.

The thesis was based on a unique opportunity to compare the perceptions of participants before and after a scenario planning project conducted in a water utility. The researcher was able to explore the perceptions of the participants of scenario planning as a change agent directly, and so address a concern in some of the literature that much of the body of knowledge on scenario planning has been filtered through the viewpoints of scenario planning practitioners. Through the use of an adapted grounded theory approach, the perceptions of the participants emerged independently of a pre-conceived theoretical framework and explanations of the outcomes of the process were developed from this data. As well, the assumptions behind the practice of scenario planning were explored and from this a theory for scenario planning was developed. This was effected while constant comparison of concepts emerging from the data was in progress and provided a theoretical framework for the discussion of the empirical research. In this case scenario planning was perceived more as an instrument than as an agent of change, with a role of setting a framework for the strategic conversation in the subsequent phases of the change initiative. The outcomes of the research illustrated that uncertainties internal to the organisation had affected the implementation of change. In particular the conceptual ecologies of people in the organisation were not explored in depth, and this perpetuated a driving force for the future of the organisation that was not merely uncertain but remained unknowable. It was concluded that whether a scenario planning project achieved its objectives was matter of perception, with evaluation differing depending on the viewpoint taken. / Change of mind-set was not necessarily needed for a change of strategic direction, which could be explained using a political metaphor. However, for cultural change to be effected, there was a need for operatives to identify with it. It was concluded from this case that unless change and/or the change process were adapted to resonate with the world views of the operatives, it was unlikely it would become embedded in the organisation and may be resisted. Conceptual ecologies needed to be explored for this adaptation to occur.

This study makes a contribution to the Australian urban water supply industry because it highlights some of the critical issues the industry faces in the future. Through the scenarios it illuminates an alternative method to develop strategies for the future. Ultimately the end result of scenario planning is not a more accurate picture of the future, but better decision making for the future. This is a significant piece of research because it demonstrates the advantages of the scenario planning process as a method to illuminate the potential future dangers and opportunities in the water industry's business environment. The scenarios can be used as a launching pad for strategic planning and to prepare the water industry for the uncertainties it faces. Water is precious and essential to life. Water supply is arguably the ultimate essential service. Australia uses about 22,000 gigalitres of water [l gigalitre (GL) = 1,000,000,000 litres, approximately 444 Olympic swimming pools (ABS 2004)] per annum across all sectors, irrigation, industry and domestic. The aim of this study was to determine the critical issues for the future of the Australian urban water supply industry. The study achieved this with the aid of scenarios that tell stories about urban water supply to the year 2025. A key to this study is the concept of organisations as living organisms, which are capable of learning and adapting to changes in their business environment. Today's business environment is constantly changing through globalisation, technological innovation and society's values. To survive, organisations must be able to anticipate and adapt to this often uncertain environment. / Traditional methods, from a mechanistic perspective, of developing strategic plans for the future have a poor track record because they invariably rely on forecasting and predicting the future from historical information that, in an increasingly uncertain and fast changing world, may no longer be appropriate. Scenarios are stories about the future. They combine uncertainty and trends with creativity, insight and intuition to enable an organisation to learn and develop strategies for the future from an organic perspective. Scenarios are not predictions, but they are plausible stories about the future. The stories do allow an organisation to re-perceive a different world by questioning prevailing paradigms and assumptions. The underlying philosophical basis for scenario planning is constructivist which is consistent with the ontological position taken for this study. This study was undertaken under a qualitative research paradigm. The ontological position taken to answer the research question was constructivist with a critical perspective where realities are intangible mental constructs based on the culture and experience of individuals or groups. Constructs are more or less informed and changeable. From an epistemological perspective the constructivist position assumes that the enquirer and subject of the research are interactively linked so that findings are created. Research under a constructivist paradigm requires a hermeneutical and dialectical methodology leading to interpretation. / The methodology adopted for this study was grounded research, being a modification of grounded theory and applicable to the business environment. Data were initially gathered by semi-structured interview, the objective being two fold. 1. The data were used to elicit critical issues for the future of the Australian urban water supply industry. 2. The data were used to develop 'plausible' futures for the urban water supply industry in the form of scenarios. The data were analysed using grounded research principles and organised using NVivo (Richards 1999; NVivo 2002). After two stages of analysis, 16 major categories, focusing on the future emerged from the data. In order to write the scenarios two key uncertainties critical to the future of the urban water supply industry were required for the scenario matrix. The two selected were 'Water availability' and 'Technological change' from the water industry's contextual environment. These two key uncertainties were considered to be the most uncertain and have the greatest impact on the future of the water industry. These two key uncertainties formed the context for the scenarios into which over 200 other issues were de-dimentionalised, as in the scenario planning method, and crafted into four scenarios. A time horizon of 2025 was selected for the scenarios to reflect the water industry's long term planning horizon. / The scenarios were called 'Decadent water use', which depicts a future where there is plenty of water and technology addresses the cost of service delivery; 'Smart water world', which depicts a future where water is scarce but is addressed by technology providing alternative sources of water; 'Muddy waters', which depicts a future where there is plenty of water but technology does not address the cost of delivery and issues of infrastructure deterioration and 'Mad Max water world', which depicts a future where water is scarce and technology does not address the scarcity, the situation becomes a crisis. From the scenarios and using concepts from complex adaptive systems theory a number of critical issues emerged from the data. Some were at a philosophical level such as whether water, as a common good, fits with society's philosophy about water. Others were at a practical level for example expressing the criticality for the water industry to build community trust and support. The research notes the potential for further qualitative research in the fields of community attitudes and behaviours towards water, water services, recycling wastewater and the preparedness to pay for water services. In addition there is potential to further develop scenarios presented in this study; 'Decadent water use', 'Smart water world', 'Muddy waters' and 'Mad Max water world'; for the Australian urban water supply industry using the data from this research as a basis for group consultation.

Inter-site interference distribution acts as a basic limitation on how much performance a network service provider can achieve in an urban network scenario. There are many different ways of controlling this interference levels. One such method is tuning the antenna downtilt depending on the network situation. Antenna downtilt can also be seen as a powerful tool for load balancing in the network. This thesis work involves a study of the impact of the antenna downtilt in an urban environment, involving non-uniform user distribution. A realistic dual ray propagation model is used to model the path gain from the base station to a UE. Such a propagation model is used along with a directional antenna radiation pattern model to calculate the overall path gain from the base station to a UE. Under such modeling, the results of the simulations show that the antenna downtilt plays a crucial role in optimizing the network performance. The results show that the optimal antenna downtilt angle is not very sensitive to the location of the hotspot in the network. The results also show that the antenna downtilt sensitivity is very much dependent on the network scenario. The coupling between the antenna downtilt and the elevation half power beamwidth is also evaluated.