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With increasing pressure to better manage the environment many government and private organisations are studying the relationships between social, economic and environmental factors to determine how they can best be optimised for increased sustainability. The analysis of such relationships are undertaken using computer-based Integrated Catchment Models (ICM). These models are capable of generating multiple scenarios depicting alternative land use alternatives at a variety of temporal and spatial scales, which present (potentially) better Triple-Bottom Line (TBL) outcomes than the prevailing situation. Dissemination of this data is (for the most part) reliant on traditional, static map products however, the ability of such products to display the complexity and temporal aspects is limited and ultimately undervalues both the knowledge incorporated in the models and the capacity of stakeholders to disseminate the complexities through other means. Geovisualization provides tools and methods for disseminating large volumes of spatial (and associated non-spatial) data. Virtual Environments (VE) have been utilised for various aspects of landscape planning for more than a decade. While such systems are capable of visualizing large volumes of data at ever-increasing levels of realism, they restrict the users ability to accurately perceive the (virtual) space. Augmented Reality (AR) is a visualization technique which allows users freedom to explore a physical space and have that space augmented with additional, spatially referenced information. A review of existing mobile AR systems forms the basis of this research. A theoretical mobile outdoor AR system using Common-Of-The-Shelf (COTS) hardware and open-source software is developed. The specific requirements for visualizing land use scenarios in a mobile AR system were derived using a usability engineering approach known as Scenario-Based Design (SBD). This determined the elements required in the user interfaces resulting in the development of a low-fidelity, computer-based prototype. The prototype user interfaces were evaluated using participants from two targeted stakeholder groups undertaking hypothetical use scenarios. Feedback from participants was collected using the cognitive walk-through technique and supplemented by evaluator observations of participants physical actions. Results from this research suggest that the prototype user interfaces did provide the necessary functionality for interacting with land use scenarios. While there were some concerns about the potential implementation of

In this report a model for logistics activities at Volvo Logistics Corporation, VLC, in the future has been constructed. The study is part of a project called Vision 2015 & Beyond, which started in the beginning of 2006, and focuses on what changes in the business environment that VLC as a TPL provider faces in the future. Within the scope of this project threats in the business environment as well as internal issues that are considered as concerns for the future are identified. The already identified threats are complemented and investigated by the researchers and further structured into a model in this report. The model shall be used as a tool in scenario planning within VLC. As to guide the practitioners in using the model a manual which describes the construction of the model and how it is going to be used has been set up. The model is adapted to VLC's activities within the automotive industry and their directives have continuously been taken into account, resulting in a model specific for VLC. Theories in scenario planning and modelling has been revised as to construct the model, and as a result of this four types of components has been determined as to constituting in the model. Those components are; targets, scenario agenda, variables and driving forces. The process of identifying the different components was conducted step wisely, starting with the targets. The targets of the model represent what VLC want to focus on in the future, i.e. what is considered as important performance indicators. Transportation costs, Customer satisfaction, Security & Safety, Environment and Market Share have been chosen as the targets in the model. Next the components which VLC have a concern about, and that have an impact on those targets, are identified and decomposed starting with the areas on the scenario agenda and ending with determining the driving forces. The model is built in two dimensions, one external part that represents the business environment, i.e. what VLC can not affect, and the second, the internal part, which represents the organisation itself. Both parts are constructed out of the type of components mentioned earlier and are connected by the targets In each part of the model relations among the components exist, however it is only the most important out of VLC’s perspective that takes part in the final network in the model. The manual explains to the practitioner the concept behind the model and how it should be used. To verify the guidelines in the manual a mini-scenario was constructed. The mini-scenario is a fictitious case, which is thought to resemble those that VLC will use the model for in the future. In the mini-scenario presented in this report a future where the Kyoto Protocol implies transports are set up. The mini-scenario has an impact on a certain number of driving forces in the business environment, and by following the manual areas of recommendations for VLC's behaviour as to face this change will be generated. The result of the study is a kit consisting of a model and an accompanying manual for VLC to use in scenario planning. The researchers have focused on constructing a model that is easy to understand for those that work within VLC, however to be able to use it in a proper way it is necessary to be familiar with VLC’s logistic activities. It is preferable to work in teams when using the model since the model is based on qualitative reasoning. Limits in time and resources has left quantification out of the scope in this report, but the researchers believe that the model could be improved and extended in that direction if it is found desirable in the future. The model is not static, rather the framework that exist today should be complemented in the future when new concerns are discovered, old ones can be disregarded etcetera. The model offers VLC a structured methodology as to consider and respond to changes in the business environment.

<p>In this report a model for logistics activities at Volvo Logistics Corporation, VLC, in the future has been constructed. The study is part of a project called Vision 2015 & Beyond, which started in the beginning of 2006, and focuses on what changes in the business environment that VLC as a TPL provider faces in the future. Within the scope of this project threats in the business environment as well as internal issues that are considered as concerns for the future are identified. The already identified threats are complemented and investigated by the researchers and further structured into a model in this report. The model shall be used as a tool in scenario planning within VLC. As to guide the practitioners in using the model a manual which describes the construction of the model and how it is going to be used has been set up. The model is adapted to VLC's activities within the automotive industry and their directives have continuously been taken into account, resulting in a model specific for VLC.</p><p>Theories in scenario planning and modelling has been revised as to construct the model, and as a result of this four types of components has been determined as to constituting in the model. Those components are; targets, scenario agenda, variables and driving forces. The process of identifying the different components was conducted step wisely, starting with the targets. The targets of the model represent what VLC want to focus on in the future, i.e. what is considered as important performance indicators. Transportation costs, Customer satisfaction, Security & Safety, Environment and Market Share have been chosen as the targets in the model. Next the components which VLC have a concern about, and that have an impact on those targets, are identified and decomposed starting with the areas on the scenario agenda and ending with determining the driving forces.</p><p>The model is built in two dimensions, one external part that represents the business environment, i.e. what VLC can not affect, and the second, the internal part, which represents the organisation itself. Both parts are constructed out of the type of components mentioned earlier and are connected by the targets In each part of the model relations among the components exist, however it is only the most important out of VLC’s perspective that takes part in the final network in the model.</p><p>The manual explains to the practitioner the concept behind the model and how it should be used. To verify the guidelines in the manual a mini-scenario was constructed. The mini-scenario is a fictitious case, which is thought to resemble those that VLC will use the model for in the future. In the mini-scenario presented in this report a future where the Kyoto Protocol implies transports are set up. The mini-scenario has an impact on a certain number of driving forces in the business environment, and by following the manual areas of recommendations for VLC's behaviour as to face this change will be generated.</p><p>The result of the study is a kit consisting of a model and an accompanying manual for VLC to use in scenario planning. The researchers have focused on constructing a model that is easy to understand for those that work within VLC, however to be able to use it in a proper way it is necessary to be familiar with VLC’s logistic activities. It is preferable to work in teams when using the model since the model is based on qualitative reasoning. Limits in time and resources has left quantification out of the scope in this report, but the researchers believe that the model could be improved and extended in that direction if it is found desirable in the future. The model is not static, rather the framework that exist today should be complemented in the future when new concerns are discovered, old ones can be disregarded etcetera.</p><p>The model offers VLC a structured methodology as to consider and respond to changes in the business environment.</p>

The Envision Central Texas (ECT) scenario-based regional planning process formulated its preferred vision for future growth in Central Texas in 2004. While the process was successful in developing a unified vision for future development for a region undergoing rapid growth, it is questionable whether any implementation has been seen on the ground since. Utilizing the performance indicators originally used to assess the alternative growth scenarios during the ECT planning process, this study attempts to monitor the region’s growth trajectory since that time. In other words, is the region realizing its preferred vision for new population growth and urban development? An analysis using remote sensing of satellite imagery, GIS and available data was undertaken to calculate eleven performance measures for the current regional context. Results of the indicator analysis helped to form a better understanding of the region’s growth since the ECT vision was adopted. For the most part, the region is continuing to grow in its “baseline” or “business as usual” pattern of development, characterized by low-density, separate use development on the urban fringe. Although the ECT vision is still in its early stages of implementation, the region faces challenges in realizing its fulfillment. The findings of this study are the product of the only quantifiable monitoring efforts of ECT implementation to date. They should be used in conjunction with qualitative monitoring already undertaken by ECT to better understand the region’s growth trajectory, and be used as a model for monitoring ECT implementation in the future. Additionally, the analysis offers a discussion of how the use of performance indicators can be improved in future scenario-based planning processes. / text

This dissertation explored the perceived association between scenario planning and the development of leadership capability and capacity. Furthermore, this study explored sophisticated virtual environments seeking instances of adult learning and the conduciveness of these environments for innovative developmental activities to build leadership capability and capacity. Data sources included 1) fifty semi-structured interviews with five expert-practitioners purposively selected for their experience in both scenario planning and leadership development, 2) descriptive process and outcome data from scenario planning programs in university business schools, and 3) fifteen published scenario planning reports, 4) observations of the scenario planning process, and 5) a survey of forty-five individuals who participated in the study of sophisticated virtual environments. The first stream of inquiry that investigated the perceived association between scenario planning and the development of leadership capability and capacity revealed the development of a synthesis model integrated from three informing theoretical frameworks. The model was used for subsequent data collection, analysis, and organization. Each data source supported and further described the associative relationship between scenario planning and the development of leadership capability and capacity; leading to increased confidence in the synthesis model. This study is unique because it links scenario planning explicitly through empirical evidence with the development of leadership capability and capacity. Findings from the second stream of inquiry into sophisticated virtual environments included formal and informal learning in the 3D virtual world of Second Life (SL). Respondents in the study completed forty-five open-ended surveys and follow-up interviews that revealed six enablers of adult learning in SL: 1) a variety of educational topics for life-long learning; 2) opportunities for multidisciplinary collaboration; 3) collaboration across geographical boundaries; 4) immersive environment creates social; 5) health and emotional benefits; and, 6) cost savings over face-to-face experiences. Four barriers included: glitches in technology reduced effectiveness, addictiveness of SL, learning curve for "newbies" and funding issues for small businesses and nonprofits. Also, sophisticated technologies are creating media-rich environments found to be integrative spaces conducive for developmental activities in the field of human resource development (HRD). Scenario planning and leadership development were found to be reasonable developmental activities suited to these digital spaces. Virtual human resource development (VHRD) was identified as a new area of inquiry for HRD.

This study is an inquiry into the phenomenon of &lsquo / architectural scenario&rsquo / generally understood as architect&rsquo / s temporal projections about his/her real product: the edifice. The means of architectural representation are utilized to display the architect&rsquo / s projections in advance of the realization of an edifice. They can also be considered as tangible products to reveal the &lsquo / architectural scenario&rsquo / . The aim of this study is to examine verbal/written and visual modes of &lsquo / architectural scenario&rsquo / through a historical survey and to uncover its various definitions and interpretations. While elaborating on this issue cinema/filmmaking is used as a paradigm for comprehending the architectural scenario as the process of image construction. &lsquo / Architectural scenario&rsquo / is explored in the frame of architectural representation. This thesis is a reconsideration of the architectural production in terms of conceptualizing &lsquo / AS&rsquo / , which is inherently valid in the form making processes.

An interactive tool is developed for the purpose of rapid exploration ofdiverse traffic scenario. The focus is on rapidity of design and evaluation rather thenon physical realism. Core aspects are the ability to define the essential elements fora traffic scenario such as a road network and vehicles. Cubic Bezier curves are usedto design the roads and vehicle trajectory. A prediction algorithm is used to visualizevehicle future poses and collisions and thus provide means for evaluation of saidscenario. Such a program was created using C++ with the help of Qt libraries.

We introduce a scenario based allocation model (SBAM) that uses entropy pooling for computing scenario probabilities. Compared to most other models that allow the investor to blend historical data with subjective views about the future, the SBAM does not require the investor to quantify a level of confidence in the subjective views.  A quantitative test is performed on a simulated systematic fund offered by the fund company Informed Portfolio Management in Stockholm, Sweden. The simulated fund under study consists of four individual systematic trading strategies and the test is simulated on a monthly basis during the years 1986-2010.  We study how the selection of views might affect the SBAM portfolios, creating three systematic views and combining them in different variations creating seven SBAM portfolios. We also compare how the size of sample data affects the results.   Furthermore, the SBAM is compared to more common allocation methods, namely an equally weighted portfolio and a portfolio optimization based only on historical data.  We find that the SBAM portfolios produced higher annual returns and information ratio than the equally weighted portfolio or the portfolio optimized only on historical data.

Background and past studies: The effects of uncertain times include fluctuating markets anddemands rapid and agile means to cope with said fluctuations and occurring changes. Scenarioplanning is considered a great tool for coping with uncertainties and preparing means for futureevents. Purpose: The purpose of this study is to study how businesses implement and use scenarioplanning as a tool to minimize uncertainty in a volatile environment. Research question: How is Scenario planning utilized to minimize uncertainties in a volatileenvironment in large organizations within Sweden? Method: The study implements a qualitative approach where semi-structured interviews wereconducted with members within the top management of said seven companies. Complementarydocuments shared by the respondents have been utilized. Results and Conclusions: The results indicate that the organizations mainly conduct threescenarios ranked by either impact or probability of occurrence. The main purpose of scenarioplanning is readiness for action in case of sudden deviations with less focus on prediction offuture deviations. The process of conducting scenario planning is interactive and multi-leveledwithin the organizations with mainly a bottom-up approach.