Scenario planning is a technique used to inform decision-making under uncertainty, and is increasingly applied in the field of climate change adaptation and policy. This paper describes applications that combine previously distinct scenario methods in new and innovative ways. It draws on numerous recent independent case studies to illustrate emerging practices, such as far stronger connections between researcher-driven and participatory approaches and cycling between exploratory and normative perspectives. The paper concludes with a call for greater support for, and collaboration among, practitioners with the argument that mixed methods are most effective for decision-making in the context of climate change challenges.

Digital analytic tools offer great potential to enhance town and city planning. Software that facilitates the modeling of possible urban design future scenarios can help planners and stakeholders in a city simulate economic, ecological, and social impacts of urban design choices. The Envision Tomorrow analytic suite is a software program that has been used to enhance participatory, small-group urban planning exercises in the Sustainable Places Project in four small cities in central Texas. This suite features formula-based measurements that relate aspects of the built environment, such as parking ratios and land uses, to indicators related to sustainability impacts. These outcomes range from demographic and density characteristics of new planning scenarios to their effects on municipal budgets and household water and energy consumption. Envision Tomorrow is analyzed in terms of its use in the Sustainable Places Project. While the town scenarios designed in this process reflect strong sustainable design principles, process analysis and stakeholder interviews suggest that the analytic indicators did not have major impacts on the community design process itself. Software use should be combined with more focus on outreach and education efforts to make modeling more representative and effective. / text

Documenting organisational history and heritage, it is argued, is an increasingly critical precursor to effective corporate and scenario planning. This study proposes that organisational history and heritage can be encapsulated in any local setting through the application of van der Heijden's (1996) conceptual framework i.e. the "business" idea. The study demonstrates that documenting the organisational business idea in use is a valid and meaningful planning activity. Secondly, the possession of multiple perspectives on the business idea in use, means that current and future planning teams will collectively be better informed, more competent and ready to abandon established ways of doing business and to strategise about unknown futures.Interpretivist methodology utilising an embedded single case study method was applied to an organisation undergoing change: the Family Planning Association of Western Australia, Inc. (FPWA). A stratified sample of thirty-four members from FPWA's institutional (Board of Management), corporate, organisational (service managers and coordinators) and technical (service delivery) organisational levels were interviewed, with the intent of capturing broad perceptions from each organisational level of the derived categories of the business idea framework. The categories investigated were those of organisational purpose, customer value created, distinctive competencies, competitive advantage, organisational uniqueness, positive and negative forces, and results. The study sought evidence to support each of the derived categories, as well as looking to elaborate on the process and task of business idea investigation and articulation.Interview outcomes were transcribed, coded and analysed using NUD*IST, the intent being to craft a consolidated model of the business idea in use at FPWA. Multiple perspectives from the four nominated organisational ++ / levels were isolated by copying the core NUD*IST database four times. A copy was assigned to each organisational group wherein interviews belonging to the assigned group were retained, and the remainder deleted, thereby allowing the differences between each group to emerge. Elements of the NUD*IST index system for the core and four derived databases were then exported to Decision Explorer for graphical representation and gap analysis. Narrative analysis was applied to relate the study's findings.Key internal and external factors were identified as both driving and hindering evolution of FPWA's corporate culture. It was in these areas that key insights to the meta value of the study emerged. The key driving external force was the changing face of sexual health community issues, specifically the expansion of services beyond women's health to cover men's, gay, lesbian and special need groups-FPWA is about sex (positive external force).The question of who should pay for sexual health services is also challenged. Concerns over the withdrawal of government funding (negative external force) and a lack of perceived direction (negative internal force) by members at the organisational and technical levels, has led to behaviour aimed at corporate survival and maintenance of the status quo. Many staff at FPWA were interpreted as clinging tightly to social justice, women's rights issues, reflecting the humanitarian (positive internal force) value-based aspects that have sustained FPWA's service over its twenty-five years of service.The conceptual framework associated with the business idea proved to be essentially a system that maps the organisation's corporate and commercial rationale. The systemic insights that emerged from the study at FPWA enabled the researcher to build a four level hierarchical model of systemic appreciation with van der Heijden's framework as the ++ / foundation. Issues of corporate age and stage of growth, systemic archetype and the key question facing the scenario planning team made up the higher levels of an emergent model of scenario planning readiness. The critical thinking associated with documenting the organisational history and heritage in the form of the business idea system has therefore generated a crucial link in the corporate and scenario planning process: the articulation of the key question as a catalyst to the next stage of corporate strategy formulation.

The thesis was based on a unique opportunity to compare the perceptions of participants before and after a scenario planning project conducted in a water utility. The researcher was able to explore the perceptions of the participants of scenario planning as a change agent directly, and so address a concern in some of the literature that much of the body of knowledge on scenario planning has been filtered through the viewpoints of scenario planning practitioners. Through the use of an adapted grounded theory approach, the perceptions of the participants emerged independently of a pre-conceived theoretical framework and explanations of the outcomes of the process were developed from this data. As well, the assumptions behind the practice of scenario planning were explored and from this a theory for scenario planning was developed. This was effected while constant comparison of concepts emerging from the data was in progress and provided a theoretical framework for the discussion of the empirical research. In this case scenario planning was perceived more as an instrument than as an agent of change, with a role of setting a framework for the strategic conversation in the subsequent phases of the change initiative. The outcomes of the research illustrated that uncertainties internal to the organisation had affected the implementation of change. In particular the conceptual ecologies of people in the organisation were not explored in depth, and this perpetuated a driving force for the future of the organisation that was not merely uncertain but remained unknowable. It was concluded that whether a scenario planning project achieved its objectives was matter of perception, with evaluation differing depending on the viewpoint taken. / Change of mind-set was not necessarily needed for a change of strategic direction, which could be explained using a political metaphor. However, for cultural change to be effected, there was a need for operatives to identify with it. It was concluded from this case that unless change and/or the change process were adapted to resonate with the world views of the operatives, it was unlikely it would become embedded in the organisation and may be resisted. Conceptual ecologies needed to be explored for this adaptation to occur.

This study makes a contribution to the Australian urban water supply industry because it highlights some of the critical issues the industry faces in the future. Through the scenarios it illuminates an alternative method to develop strategies for the future. Ultimately the end result of scenario planning is not a more accurate picture of the future, but better decision making for the future. This is a significant piece of research because it demonstrates the advantages of the scenario planning process as a method to illuminate the potential future dangers and opportunities in the water industry's business environment. The scenarios can be used as a launching pad for strategic planning and to prepare the water industry for the uncertainties it faces. Water is precious and essential to life. Water supply is arguably the ultimate essential service. Australia uses about 22,000 gigalitres of water [l gigalitre (GL) = 1,000,000,000 litres, approximately 444 Olympic swimming pools (ABS 2004)] per annum across all sectors, irrigation, industry and domestic. The aim of this study was to determine the critical issues for the future of the Australian urban water supply industry. The study achieved this with the aid of scenarios that tell stories about urban water supply to the year 2025. A key to this study is the concept of organisations as living organisms, which are capable of learning and adapting to changes in their business environment. Today's business environment is constantly changing through globalisation, technological innovation and society's values. To survive, organisations must be able to anticipate and adapt to this often uncertain environment. / Traditional methods, from a mechanistic perspective, of developing strategic plans for the future have a poor track record because they invariably rely on forecasting and predicting the future from historical information that, in an increasingly uncertain and fast changing world, may no longer be appropriate. Scenarios are stories about the future. They combine uncertainty and trends with creativity, insight and intuition to enable an organisation to learn and develop strategies for the future from an organic perspective. Scenarios are not predictions, but they are plausible stories about the future. The stories do allow an organisation to re-perceive a different world by questioning prevailing paradigms and assumptions. The underlying philosophical basis for scenario planning is constructivist which is consistent with the ontological position taken for this study. This study was undertaken under a qualitative research paradigm. The ontological position taken to answer the research question was constructivist with a critical perspective where realities are intangible mental constructs based on the culture and experience of individuals or groups. Constructs are more or less informed and changeable. From an epistemological perspective the constructivist position assumes that the enquirer and subject of the research are interactively linked so that findings are created. Research under a constructivist paradigm requires a hermeneutical and dialectical methodology leading to interpretation. / The methodology adopted for this study was grounded research, being a modification of grounded theory and applicable to the business environment. Data were initially gathered by semi-structured interview, the objective being two fold. 1. The data were used to elicit critical issues for the future of the Australian urban water supply industry. 2. The data were used to develop 'plausible' futures for the urban water supply industry in the form of scenarios. The data were analysed using grounded research principles and organised using NVivo (Richards 1999; NVivo 2002). After two stages of analysis, 16 major categories, focusing on the future emerged from the data. In order to write the scenarios two key uncertainties critical to the future of the urban water supply industry were required for the scenario matrix. The two selected were 'Water availability' and 'Technological change' from the water industry's contextual environment. These two key uncertainties were considered to be the most uncertain and have the greatest impact on the future of the water industry. These two key uncertainties formed the context for the scenarios into which over 200 other issues were de-dimentionalised, as in the scenario planning method, and crafted into four scenarios. A time horizon of 2025 was selected for the scenarios to reflect the water industry's long term planning horizon. / The scenarios were called 'Decadent water use', which depicts a future where there is plenty of water and technology addresses the cost of service delivery; 'Smart water world', which depicts a future where water is scarce but is addressed by technology providing alternative sources of water; 'Muddy waters', which depicts a future where there is plenty of water but technology does not address the cost of delivery and issues of infrastructure deterioration and 'Mad Max water world', which depicts a future where water is scarce and technology does not address the scarcity, the situation becomes a crisis. From the scenarios and using concepts from complex adaptive systems theory a number of critical issues emerged from the data. Some were at a philosophical level such as whether water, as a common good, fits with society's philosophy about water. Others were at a practical level for example expressing the criticality for the water industry to build community trust and support. The research notes the potential for further qualitative research in the fields of community attitudes and behaviours towards water, water services, recycling wastewater and the preparedness to pay for water services. In addition there is potential to further develop scenarios presented in this study; 'Decadent water use', 'Smart water world', 'Muddy waters' and 'Mad Max water world'; for the Australian urban water supply industry using the data from this research as a basis for group consultation.

10 pp. / Planning for an uncertain future presents many challenges. Thinking systematically and creatively about what is in store through a process called scenario planning can help illuminate options for action and improve decision-making. This guide focuses on a process for developing scenarios to help communities and watershed groups explore what might happen in the years to come, make more informed decisions today, and build a watershed management process. The systematic approach to scenario planning described here is based on the lessons learned through a yearlong scenario planning process in the Upper Gila Watershed in southeastern Arizona and Water Resource Research Center’s (WRRC) research on scenario planning.

Thesis advisor: Timothy Crawford / Since 1947, India and Pakistan have gone to war four times and faced several other regional crises over the disputed status of Kashmir. Since 1998, the Kashmir conflict has been characterized by increasingly aggressive nuclear rhetoric and signaling. Nuclear use by either India and Pakistan, even for counterforce targeting, would result in the deaths of millions on the continent and forever damage the taboo surrounding nuclear first-use. This paper will explore the ways in which the ongoing Indo-Pakistan conflict in Kashmir may escalate to the nuclear level. I will argue that a nuclear exchange between India and Pakistan, in reference to the Kashmir conflict, is within the realm of plausibility and therefore deserves careful consideration. I will map out four plausible pathways to nuclear first-use to draw conclusions about what aspects of the Indo-Pakistani relationship are most threatening to regional stability. / Thesis (BA) — Boston College, 2019. / Submitted to: Boston College. College of Arts and Sciences. / Discipline: Departmental Honors. / Discipline: Political Science.

This dissertation explored the perceived association between scenario planning and the development of leadership capability and capacity. Furthermore, this study explored sophisticated virtual environments seeking instances of adult learning and the conduciveness of these environments for innovative developmental activities to build leadership capability and capacity. Data sources included 1) fifty semi-structured interviews with five expert-practitioners purposively selected for their experience in both scenario planning and leadership development, 2) descriptive process and outcome data from scenario planning programs in university business schools, and 3) fifteen published scenario planning reports, 4) observations of the scenario planning process, and 5) a survey of forty-five individuals who participated in the study of sophisticated virtual environments. The first stream of inquiry that investigated the perceived association between scenario planning and the development of leadership capability and capacity revealed the development of a synthesis model integrated from three informing theoretical frameworks. The model was used for subsequent data collection, analysis, and organization. Each data source supported and further described the associative relationship between scenario planning and the development of leadership capability and capacity; leading to increased confidence in the synthesis model. This study is unique because it links scenario planning explicitly through empirical evidence with the development of leadership capability and capacity. Findings from the second stream of inquiry into sophisticated virtual environments included formal and informal learning in the 3D virtual world of Second Life (SL). Respondents in the study completed forty-five open-ended surveys and follow-up interviews that revealed six enablers of adult learning in SL: 1) a variety of educational topics for life-long learning; 2) opportunities for multidisciplinary collaboration; 3) collaboration across geographical boundaries; 4) immersive environment creates social; 5) health and emotional benefits; and, 6) cost savings over face-to-face experiences. Four barriers included: glitches in technology reduced effectiveness, addictiveness of SL, learning curve for "newbies" and funding issues for small businesses and nonprofits. Also, sophisticated technologies are creating media-rich environments found to be integrative spaces conducive for developmental activities in the field of human resource development (HRD). Scenario planning and leadership development were found to be reasonable developmental activities suited to these digital spaces. Virtual human resource development (VHRD) was identified as a new area of inquiry for HRD.

Is scenario planning a process that can be used by agencies of the Australian Public Service to generate and develop information that is relevant to the future, and thereby make possible improved strategic planning? This is the core question of this dissertation. The first part of the thesis is devoted to the case for investigating the benefits of scenario planning. Literature defining and describing the benefits of scenario planning for both private and public sector organisations is examined, and factors that appear to be critical to effective implementation of the process are discussed. Against this theoretical background the empirical evidence of seven cases of the application of scenario planning in six agencies of the Australian Public Service is considered. Several conclusions are drawn on the basis of the data obtained from the seven cases studied. Scenario planning is more likely to make possible improved strategic planning of public sector agencies such as those that comprise the Australian Public Service (irrespective of their function or size) if it has the active involvement of senior management during the developmental phase of the process, and their ongoing support for any follow-up activity. In addition, a well resourced and in-depth research phase is integral to the success of the process. Even if these elements are not present to a high degree, a well managed scenario planning exercise will improve to some degree the ability of an agency�s senior executive to think more openly and proactively about its future business context. In addition, well resourced and properly supported scenario planning can also help a public sector agency to improve the quality of its information gathering, test the viability of its strategy options and develop appropriate contingency plans.

Poster presentation from the Living the Future 8 Conference, April 23-24, 2012, University of Arizona Libraries, Tucson, AZ. / In 2010, the Association of Research Libraries (ARL) developed an exciting new project, designed to support libraries in future visioning and preparation. The result was a set of 4 "alternate futures" narratives (scenarios) that do not discuss libraries, but rather the research environment in which libraries will function. These scenarios work together as a set, to shape and guide strategic conversation through highlighting critical uncertainties. KU Libraries became one of the first ARL institutions to bring this work home. We launched intensive, interactive workshops that offered our staff the opportunity to suspend disbelief and move beyond conventional understanding about our future. This poster will provide an overview of the ARL scenario set, and explain the outcomes and best practices of KU Libraries’ work.