Despite the widely hailed success of South Africa’s transition from apartheid to democracy it was apparent by the mid-2000s that beneath the veneer of stability lay a country facing serious social and economic challenges. The employment and labour market participation rates were uniquely low among emerging markets. Protest action against the state had reached levels last encountered in the volatile 1980s and early 1990s. The budget and current account deficits had reached unsustainable levels. By its own admission the government realised that the country was not recording GDP growth rates necessary to make dramatic inroads into poverty, unemployment and inequality levels. A number of analysts and commentators therefore came to question the future stability of South Africa’s political system. Trade unions and some Cabinet ministers routinely described unemployment as a “ticking time bomb”. The Chairman of the Institute of International Affairs wrote in Business Day that he could predict when South Africa’s “Tunisia Day” would arrive. The respected Economist newspaper ran a front page feature on what it called South Africa’s “downhill slide”. Former President FW de Klerk warned that South Africa was approaching a precipice. Clem Sunter, South Africa’s most renowned scenario planner, upped his prospects that South Africa may become a failed state. Global ratings agencies downgraded South Africa citing the fear that government policy could not meet popular demands. Amidst such speculation it is vitally important that the prospects for instability be investigated and determined, not via opinion or speculation, but rather against a sound body of theory. This task is complicated by the fact that the feared instability may only occur at a point in the future. The theory must therefore be applied via a methodology capable of overcoming the weak track record of political science in accurately anticipating major shifts in political systems. This problem statement will be addressed by showing that complex systems theory holds the key to a series of units of analysis via which the stability or instability of any political system can be objectively determined, compared to any other political system, and tracked over time. Secondly that there are scenario planning methodologies that can overcome the uncertainty inherent in the futures of all complex systems and thereby the poor track record that political scientists have in anticipating dramatic future changes in the systems they study. When combined into a single complex systems/scenario model, these theoretical and methodological points of departure will allow the long term prospects for stability or instability of any political system to be accurately and objectively determined. / PhD (Development and Management) North-West University, Potchefstroom Campus, 2013

This thesis presents a novel policy assessment tool that serves as a decision support framework for analysis of energy policy problems involving multilevel, multidimensional and multi-stakeholder complexity. This new approach, The Energy Policy Assessment Technique (E-PAT), integrates System Dynamics Simulation and Multi-Criteria Evaluation models into a unified assessment framework. The E-PAT doubles as a systems-thinking model and a multi-criteria evaluation archetype. The E-PAT is designed for assessing policy issues, particularly those relating to energy planning in a national context. It is a suitable tool for evaluation and selection of optimal policies from competing and conflicting alternatives. To test its robustness and practical application, a case study on energy policy evaluation in Nigeria is carried out with this tool. A model of the Nigerian energy economy was constructed, and three proposed government policies for Sustainable Energy Development were evaluated relative to a Business-As-Usual case. The evaluation process identified ‘best’ policy options according to stakeholder viewpoints. The original contribution of this research is the creation of an integrated, transparent and comprehensive assessment tool, and the development of measurable Energy Sustainability Indicators (ESI), to aid policymakers in diverse policy analysis. The new tool is intended to support assessment of energy policies in relation to impacts on the economy, society and environment.

A indústria editorial brasileira está passando por um momento de transformações. A adoção de tecnologias digitais de leitura e de aprendizagem tende a alterar a estrutura e as operações da indústria, que já vem se modificando em função da concentração em determinados subsetores e da entrada de empresas internacionais no Brasil. Mudanças significativas já aconteceram na indústria editorial dos Estados Unidos devido ao crescimento das vendas de e-books, mas não está claro se essas mudanças serão repetidas aqui. Este trabalho busca identificar tendências e incertezas que podem influenciar o desenvolvimento de possíveis futuros e planejar cenários para a indústria editorial brasileira nos próximos 5 anos. Para isso, lança mão do método de planejamento de cenários Lógica Intuitiva – DSI (Schoemaker, 1995), cuja aplicação fez uso de dados coletados através de desk research, observação participativa e da técnica de análise de setores industriais Rede de Valor (Nalebuff & Brandenburger, 1996). Como resultado, são identificadas as tendências e incertezas a serem monitoradas e são descritos dois cenários possíveis para essa indústria. / The Brazilian Book Industry is crossing a time of changes. The adoption of digital reading and learning technologies tends to change the structure of the industry and its operations. The industry is already being modified by concentration and entrance of international players in the Brazilian Market. Significant changes has taken place in the United States Book Industry due to the growth of e-books sales, however it is not clear if they will repeat their role in Brazil. This work aims to identify trends and uncertainties that may influence the development of possible futures and to plan scenarios for the Brazilian Book Industry. To reach these objectives, it uses the method developed by Paul Schoemaker (1995), whose application made use of data collected by desk research, participant observation and industry analysis based on Value Net technique (Nalebuff & Brandenburger, 1996). As results, it identifies trends and uncertainties to monitor and describes two scenarios for this Industry.

A indústria editorial brasileira está passando por um momento de transformações. A adoção de tecnologias digitais de leitura e de aprendizagem tende a alterar a estrutura e as operações da indústria, que já vem se modificando em função da concentração em determinados subsetores e da entrada de empresas internacionais no Brasil. Mudanças significativas já aconteceram na indústria editorial dos Estados Unidos devido ao crescimento das vendas de e-books, mas não está claro se essas mudanças serão repetidas aqui. Este trabalho busca identificar tendências e incertezas que podem influenciar o desenvolvimento de possíveis futuros e planejar cenários para a indústria editorial brasileira nos próximos 5 anos. Para isso, lança mão do método de planejamento de cenários Lógica Intuitiva – DSI (Schoemaker, 1995), cuja aplicação fez uso de dados coletados através de desk research, observação participativa e da técnica de análise de setores industriais Rede de Valor (Nalebuff & Brandenburger, 1996). Como resultado, são identificadas as tendências e incertezas a serem monitoradas e são descritos dois cenários possíveis para essa indústria. / The Brazilian Book Industry is crossing a time of changes. The adoption of digital reading and learning technologies tends to change the structure of the industry and its operations. The industry is already being modified by concentration and entrance of international players in the Brazilian Market. Significant changes has taken place in the United States Book Industry due to the growth of e-books sales, however it is not clear if they will repeat their role in Brazil. This work aims to identify trends and uncertainties that may influence the development of possible futures and to plan scenarios for the Brazilian Book Industry. To reach these objectives, it uses the method developed by Paul Schoemaker (1995), whose application made use of data collected by desk research, participant observation and industry analysis based on Value Net technique (Nalebuff & Brandenburger, 1996). As results, it identifies trends and uncertainties to monitor and describes two scenarios for this Industry.

A indústria editorial brasileira está passando por um momento de transformações. A adoção de tecnologias digitais de leitura e de aprendizagem tende a alterar a estrutura e as operações da indústria, que já vem se modificando em função da concentração em determinados subsetores e da entrada de empresas internacionais no Brasil. Mudanças significativas já aconteceram na indústria editorial dos Estados Unidos devido ao crescimento das vendas de e-books, mas não está claro se essas mudanças serão repetidas aqui. Este trabalho busca identificar tendências e incertezas que podem influenciar o desenvolvimento de possíveis futuros e planejar cenários para a indústria editorial brasileira nos próximos 5 anos. Para isso, lança mão do método de planejamento de cenários Lógica Intuitiva – DSI (Schoemaker, 1995), cuja aplicação fez uso de dados coletados através de desk research, observação participativa e da técnica de análise de setores industriais Rede de Valor (Nalebuff & Brandenburger, 1996). Como resultado, são identificadas as tendências e incertezas a serem monitoradas e são descritos dois cenários possíveis para essa indústria. / The Brazilian Book Industry is crossing a time of changes. The adoption of digital reading and learning technologies tends to change the structure of the industry and its operations. The industry is already being modified by concentration and entrance of international players in the Brazilian Market. Significant changes has taken place in the United States Book Industry due to the growth of e-books sales, however it is not clear if they will repeat their role in Brazil. This work aims to identify trends and uncertainties that may influence the development of possible futures and to plan scenarios for the Brazilian Book Industry. To reach these objectives, it uses the method developed by Paul Schoemaker (1995), whose application made use of data collected by desk research, participant observation and industry analysis based on Value Net technique (Nalebuff & Brandenburger, 1996). As results, it identifies trends and uncertainties to monitor and describes two scenarios for this Industry.

Supporting a growing human population while avoiding biodiversity loss is a central challenge towards a sustainable future. Ecosystem services are benefits that people derive from nature. People have drastically altered the earth’s land surface in the pursuit of those ecosystem services that have been ascribed market value, while at the same time eroding biodiversity and non-market ecosystem services. The science required to inform a more balanced vision for land-cover change in the future is rapidly developing, but critical questions remain unanswered regarding how to quantify ecosystem services and ascribe value to them, and how to coordinate efforts to safeguard multiple ecosystem services and biodiversity together. This dissertation addresses several of these challenges using Vermont as a model landscape. Specifically, we begin by estimating the economic value of flood mitigation ecosystem services and show that the externalized value of ecosystem services can be quite high. Second, we assess the role of demand from human beneficiaries in shifting the spatial distribution of ecosystem services, and address the biodiversity and human wellbeing implications of that shift. Third we analyze the tradeoffs and synergies inherent in pursing multiple ecosystem services and biodiversity through conservation, and show that overall ecosystem service conservation is more likely to boost biodiversity outcomes than to undermine them. Finally, I implement statewide scenarios of land-cover change and flood risk in order to assess our ability to quantify ecosystem service outcomes and identify spatial priorities for the future despite land-cover change dynamics that are complex and unpredictable.

Bakgrund: Ledare behöver ofta ta ställning till och hantera nya digitala verktyg. Oftast faller de företag som inte hänger med i digitaliseringens snabba svängar mellan stolarna. Även ledarskapet genomgår en omvandling i och med digitaliseringen. Enkelheten i att kommunicera och dela information bidrar till att utmana hierarkier och funktioner i organisationer. Nu ökar användningen av teknik, inte minst på grund av den pågående Covid-19-pandemin. Det krävs av ledare att hitta nya sätt att fatta beslut på när arbetssituationen inte längre ser likadan ut som tidigare. Med hjälp av scenarioplanering kan ledare förbereda sig på de mer komplicerade besluten. En scenarioplanering handlar om att planera för möjliga utfall i framtiden baserat på det man vet i nuläget. Genom att skildra möjliga utfall hinner ledare planera och förbereda sig om något av dem inträffar. Syfte: Syftet med uppsatsen är att närmare undersöka vilken påverkan den ökade digitaliseringen kommer få på framtidens ledarroll samt att bidra till en ökad förståelse för hur digitaliseringen förändrar synen på ledarskap och rollen som ledare. Frågeställning: Hur kommer digitaliseringen påverka framtidens ledarskap? Hur kan ledare fatta beslut för att anpassa sig till digitaliseringens utveckling? Hur kan scenarioplanering användas som verktyg för att underlätta ledares beslutsfattande? Metod: Arbetet utgår från en abduktiv ansats med växelverkan mellan teori och empiri. Det empiriska resultatet är framtaget genom kvalitativa semistrukturerade intervjuer som sedan transkriberats och genomgått en form av tematisk analys där likheter och skillnader i intervjuerna pekats ut. Empiri och resultat: Empirin utgörs av intervjuer av experter respektive ledare. Expertintervjuerna bidrog till skapandet av scenariokorset och ledarintervjuerna bidrog med ett arbetslivsperspektiv på scenarierna. De fyra scenarier som tagits fram baseras på drivkrafterna kontroll och användning av framtida teknik. När scenarierna diskuterades med ledarna tog de bland annat upp att de hade föredragit mellanvarianter på scenarierna framför ett renodlat scenario. Slutsats: Genom att skapa scenarier svarar uppsatsen på hur digitaliseringen kan påverka framtidens ledarskap. Ledarna såg hellre en kombination av två scenarier istället för att ett scenario inträffar. Med kontinuerligt arbete kan scenarioplanering vara ett effektivt verktyg i den strategiska planeringen och beslutsfattandet. / Background: Leaders often need to take a stand on and manage new digital tools. Most often, the companies that do not keep up with the rapid turns of digitalization fall between the cracks. Leadership is also undergoing a transformation with digitalization. The simplicity of communicating and sharing information helps to challenge hierarchies and functions in organizations. Now the use of technology is increasing, not least due to the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic. Leaders are required to find new ways to make decisions when the work situation no longer looks the same as before. With the help of scenario planning, leaders can prepare for the more complicated decisions. Scenario planning is about planning for possible outcomes in the future based on what is known at present. By depicting possible outcomes, leaders have time to plan and prepare if any of them occur. Purpose: The purpose of the essay is to investigate in more detail the impact that increased digitalization will have on the future leadership role and to contribute to an increased understanding of how digitalisation changes the view of leadership and the role as a leader. Issue: How will digitalization affect future leadership? How can leaders make decisions to adapt to the development of digitalization? How can scenario planning be used as a tool to facilitate leaders' decision-making? Method: The work is based on an abductive approach with an interaction between theory and empiricism. The empirical result is produced through qualitative semi-structured interviews which then were transcribed and underwent a form of thematic analysis where similarities and differences in the interviews were pointed out. Empirical data and results: The empirical data consists of interviews with experts and leaders. The expert interviews contributed to the creation of the scenario cross and the leader interviews contributed with a working life perspective on the scenarios. The four scenarios developed are based on the driving forces of control and use of future technology. When the scenarios were discussed with the leaders, they mentioned, among other things, that they had preferred intermediate variants of the scenarios over a pure scenario. Conclusion: By creating scenarios, the essay responds to how digitalisation can affect future leadership. Leaders would rather see a combination of two scenarios instead of one scenario occurring. With continuous work, scenario planning can be an effective tool in strategic planning and decision-making.

Background and past studies: The effects of uncertain times include fluctuating markets anddemands rapid and agile means to cope with said fluctuations and occurring changes. Scenarioplanning is considered a great tool for coping with uncertainties and preparing means for futureevents. Purpose: The purpose of this study is to study how businesses implement and use scenarioplanning as a tool to minimize uncertainty in a volatile environment. Research question: How is Scenario planning utilized to minimize uncertainties in a volatileenvironment in large organizations within Sweden? Method: The study implements a qualitative approach where semi-structured interviews wereconducted with members within the top management of said seven companies. Complementarydocuments shared by the respondents have been utilized. Results and Conclusions: The results indicate that the organizations mainly conduct threescenarios ranked by either impact or probability of occurrence. The main purpose of scenarioplanning is readiness for action in case of sudden deviations with less focus on prediction offuture deviations. The process of conducting scenario planning is interactive and multi-leveledwithin the organizations with mainly a bottom-up approach.

Stories about the future are a powerful tool for navigating uncertainty, building agency, and detecting opportunities for transformation. For communities that have weathered colonialism, future visions grounded in local values and knowledge are especially powerful. Futures based in diverse value systems are also valuable assets for global efforts toward sustainability transformation. This thesis project began with a participatory visioning workshop in Mombera Kingdom, a community located in Malawi. We invited the kingdom’s traditional leaders to imagine positive futures for nature and people in their district. This workshop was a case study application of the Nature Futures Framework (NFF), a heuristic tool that enables explicit discussion of different ways that people value nature. Following the workshop, I applied the NFF in a novel way to translate the rich and diverse participant visions into distinct, packaged future scenarios. First, I built a Causal Loop Diagram (CLD) that represents dynamics in the present. Second, I organized possible interventions according to their expected impact on the NFF’s value perspectives. Third, I used those interventions to build three desirable scenarios of the kingdom’s future, each of which is desirable according to different values. Finally, I gathered stakeholder feedback on the scenarios at a follow-up workshop. The CLD suggests that misalignment within agricultural and energy production institutions causes failure to mediate ecosystem health and human well-being. The intervention analysis demonstrates that value-diverse visions can be translated into value-discrete scenarios. The scenarios capture images of modernity firmly grounded in Mombera Kingdom’s cultural values, rather than the culture that once colonized them. These results suggest new problem framings and strategies in the case study context. This project is a useful step toward regional- and global-scale future scenarios able to include Africa’s locally situated value systems. / AFRICAN FUTURES

The external environment, currently considered as VUCA environment, in which orgnaizations and individuals operate can be characterized by numerous uncertainties. As a result of these uncertainties, one significant aspect that is affected is the individual KSAOs as part of the human capital concept. A thorough understanding of how uncertainties affect KSAOs allows individuals and organizations to adapt, be resilient, and respond effectively to the changing environment. One research field that encompasses the external environment and its uncertainties as well as individual KSAOs is strategic human resource management (SHRM). However, the relationship between these key concepts has not yet been addressed. Also, much of SHRM research has been devoted to the company's perspective, largely ignoring the employees' point of view. Thus, this research aims to fill a gap in prior research by exploring the relationship between the external environment with its uncertainties and individual KSAOs from the employee's perspective. To further implement this knowledge in practice, two scenarios are created to demonstrate the factors companies should focus on in order to increase their human capital's resilience. To identify the relationship between external uncertainties and individual KSAOs, a conceptual framework was developed. The framework outlines the foundation for a qualitative case study with a Swedish consultancy company as a single case. A comprehensive data foundation was constructed through data triangulation, which involves combining both primary and secondary sources of data. In this study, organizational documents provided by the case company were used as secondary data, while primary data was gathered through semi-structured interviews with six employees of the case company. The findings indicate differences between prior literature and the collected empirical data. For example, employees' views on prioritizing different KSAOs (Knowledge, skills, abilities, and other characteristics) showed that soft skills were seen as far more important than hard skills when coping with uncertainties. This challenges the prior literature on human capital that has mostly focused on hard skills and the importance of their development through education and training. By using COVID-19 as a recent and accurate example of uncertainty, the data revealed changes in ways of working and work-life balance. It also revealed that environmental and technological uncertainties are currently considered the most effective. While they were seen to have unpredictable, and possibly even negative long-term effects, they were also considered as possibilities for the future. With subjective research philosophy, we could find contradictory opinions within the sample which further extended prior research by highlighting the need for considering individuality rather than the company perspective when making decisions that relate to the external environment , its uncertainties, and the individual KSAOs.